Modernizing the NAS
Surveillance and Navigation
Infrastructures
Presented at NEXTOR’s
NAS Infrastructure Management Conference
David Hamrick
Director, Safety and Performance-Based Services
September 9, 2005
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Topics
•
•
•
•
•
2
Today’s infrastructures
Why modernize?
Potential future infrastructures
Aircraft equipage requirements
Cost impacts
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
NAS Surveillance Today
709 Radars in CONUS
319 Skinpaint
Unit
F&E
Costs
$7.9M
338 Beacon
$2.4M
45 ASDE
7 PRM
$4.4M
$26.4M
Beacon Radars are the Backbone
- 206 Terminal radars
- 132 En route radars
3
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Today’s Surveillance System Coverage
338 Backbone Beacon Radars
Coverage Overlap at 12K ft
Above Ground Level
Coverage at 1, 3, 5, 12, 18K ft
Above Ground Level
The coverage is excellent, but is also very costly!
4
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Operating and Maintaining
Today’s Surveillance Infrastructure
Legacy Surveillance Cost (F&E)
300
Replacement programs for
Mode-S, ASR-9, PRM, and LRR
200
Replacement programs
for ASDE-X , ATCBI-6,
and ASR-11
Acquisition cycles
for ASDE-X, ATCBI-6,
and ASR-11 nearing
completion
200
Cost ($M)
Cost ($M)
400
Legacy Surveillance Cost (O&M)
100
100
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
2030
2035
0
2040 2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
2030
2035
2040
Legacy
Legacy Investment
Investment Replacement
Replacement Cost
Cost
$7B
$7B F&E
F&E // $6B
$6B O&M
O&M (35
(35 years)
years)
5
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Motivation for Modernizing the
Surveillance Infrastructure
Budget
shortfalls
• Reduce cost
– Equipment
– Maintenance
Increased • Improve service
– Increased target accuracy
air traffic &
– Increased target update rate
complexity
– More robust surveillance data distribution
Increased
controller
workload
6
• Add new services
– Cockpit display of traffic information
– Down linking of aircraft information, e.g., intent
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
A Potential Future
Surveillance Infrastructure
Automatic Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B)
Primary System
Backup System
SENSIS UAT GBT
Thales Antenna
566 ADS-B Ground Stations
47 Terminal
114 En route
161 Radars
A significant reduction in equipment complexity and cost!
7
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Surveillance Coverage Comparison
Today
338 SSR Backbone
(206 Terminal, 132 En Route)
AGL Coverage Overlap at 12K ft
161 Radars
Potential Future
(47 Terminal, 114 En Route)
AGL Coverage Overlap at 12K ft
AGL Coverage at 1, 3, 5, 12, 18K ft AGL Coverage at 1, 3, 5, 12, 18K ft
AGL = Above Ground Level
8
566 GBTs
(497 Terminal + 69 En Route)
AGL Coverage Overlap at 12K ft
AGL Coverage at 1, 3, 5, 12, 18K ft
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Automatic Dependent SurveillanceBroadcast (ADS-B) Architecture
ADS-B
ADS-B
TIS-B
FIS-B
UAT and/or
1090ES†
ATC
Automation†
AD
SB†
Surveillance
Systems
Radar
Sites
TIS-B
Surveillance
Processing
ADS-B
Track
Reports
Control Facility
9
Identifies: Current Capabilities
†
Future Capabilities
FIS
Systems
UAT or
1090ES†
Tx/Rx
FIS
Ground
Broadcast
Servers
UAT and/or
1090ES†
Ground
Based
Transceivers
(GBT’s)
FIS-B*
TIS-B**
ADS-B
Target
Reports
Flight
Monitoring
(Limited)
* FIS-B on UAT only
** TIS-B not presently available on 1090ES
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Target Report Comparison
Typical Radar Position and Tracker
Estimates
10
Typical ADS-B Position and
Estimates
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Comparison of FAA Costs
Legacy vs. ADS-B Surveillance Cost (F&E)
Legacy vs. ADS-B Surveillance Cost (O&M)
Legacy Surveillance Cost (F&E)
300
Replacement programs for
Mode-S, ASR-9, PRM, and LRR
Insertion Window
Acquisition cycles
for ASDE-X, ATCBI-6,
and ASR-11 nearing
completion
200
Legacy Surveillance Cost (O&M)
Surveillance w/ ADS-B
Legacy Surveillance
200
Cost ($M)
Cost ($M)
400
Surveillance w/ ADS-B
Legacy Surveillance
Replacement programs
for ASDE-X , ATCBI-6,
and ASR-11
100
100
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
Year
2030
2035
2040
0
2005
2010
2015
2020
Base Year 2005 Dollars
2025
Year
2030
2035
2040
Surveillance
With
Investment
Surveillance
With ADS-B
ADS-B
Investment
Legacy
Replacement
Cost
Legacy Investment
Investment
Replacement
Cost
$4B
F&E
/
$5B
O&M
$4B
F&E
$5BO&M
O&M
$7B
$7B F&E
F&E ///$6B
$6B
O&M
AASavings
Savingsof
of $4B
$4Bto
toFAA
FAAover
over35
35Years
Years
*Source: CIP and Radar Program Management Information
11 Graph courtesy of SF-21 Program Office
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
ADS-B Avionics
“Broadcast Out”
“CDTI”
(Transmit Only)
(Transmit & Receive)
Garmin GDL-90
ADS-B UAT
Garmin MX-20
Multifunction Display
General
Aviation
Air
Transport
Rockwell-Collins TDR-94
Transponder
12
CDTI
on PFD
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Air Transport ADS-B Transition Costs
(2004 $)
(Dual Transponder)
Air Transport Aircraft
Constant Year (2004) Unit Cost ($K)
2004 - 2008
2009 - 2012
2013 - 2016
2017 - 2020
$
$
$
$
$
251.5
169.0
123.4
25.5
81.2
$
$
$
$
$
251.5
169.0
123.4
25.5
81.2
$
$
$
$
$
251.5
169.0
123.4
25.5
81.2
$
$
$
$
$
564.3
143.5
436.2
16.6
419.6
$
$
$
$
$
564.3
143.5
436.2
16.6
419.6
$
$
$
$
$
564.3
143.5
436.2
16.6
419.6
$
$
$
$
$
357.6
141.7
231.3
16.5
214.8
$
$
$
$
$
357.6
141.7
231.3
16.5
214.8
$
$
$
$
$
357.6
141.7
231.3
16.5
214.8
178.8
70.9
115.6
8.3
107.4
$
$
$
$
$
178.8
70.9
115.6
8.3
107.4
$
$
$
$
$
178.8
70.9
115.6
8.3
107.4
178.8
70.9
115.6
8.3
107.4
$
$
$
$
$
178.8
70.9
115.6
8.3
107.4
$
$
$
$
$
178.8
70.9
115.6
8.3
107.4
Classic
Capable
1
Not
Equipped
CDTI
3
For BCST
4
5
BDCST
Only
Equipage cost
depends on:
- Existing equipage
- Upgrade path
- Aircraft type
- Timeframe
13
$
$
$
$
$
251.5
169.0
123.4
25.5
81.2
Neo-Classic
Latent
2
Path 1 (NE -> CDTI)
Path 2 (NE -> BCST
Path 3 (L -> CDTI)
Path 4 (L -> BCST)
Path 5 ( BCST -> CDTI)
Path 1 (NE -> CDTI)
Path 2 (NE -> BCST
Path 3 (L -> CDTI)
Path 4 (L -> BCST)
Path 5 ( BCST -> CDTI)
$
$
$
$
$
564.3
143.5
436.2
16.6
419.6
Modern
Path 1 (NE -> CDTI)
Path 2 (NE -> BCST
Path 3 (L -> CDTI)
Path 4 (L -> BCST)
Path 5 ( BCST -> CDTI)
$
$
$
$
$
357.6
141.7
231.3
16.5
214.8
Regional - TurboProp
Path 1 (NE -> CDTI)
Path 2 (NE -> BCST
Path 3 (L -> CDTI)
Path 4 (L -> BCST)
Path 5 ( BCST -> CDTI)
$
$
$
$
$
178.8
70.9
115.6
8.3
107.4
$
$
$
$
$
Regional - TurboJet
Path 1 (NE -> CDTI)
Path 2 (NE -> BCST
Path 3 (L -> CDTI)
Path 4 (L -> BCST)
Path 5 ( BCST -> CDTI)
$
$
$
$
$
178.8
70.9
115.6
8.3
107.4
$
$
$
$
$
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Aircraft Equipage Status
Capable
Latent
Not Equipped
Air Transport ADS-B Fleet (bdcst out)
Regional ADS-B Fleet (bdcst out)
7,000
Aircraft Quantity
Aircraft Quantity
8,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Year
GA ADS-B Fleet (CDTI or bdcst out)
DOD ADS-B Fleet (bdcst out)
16,000
Aircraft Quantity
Aircraft Quantity
250,000
14,000
200,000
12,000
10,000
150,000
100,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
50,000
2,000
0
0
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Year
Year
Equipage is happening, but mandates will be required!
14
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Cost of ADS-B Compliance ($M)
Class A
Airspace
Mandate
Class B, C, D
Airspace
Mandate
Total
15
Air
Transport
General
Aviation
Total
~$ 400
~$ 400
~$ 800
$0
~$ 1,200
~$ 1,200
~$ 400
~$ 1,600
~$ 2,000
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Surveillance Modernization Summary
• A long-term investment perspective is needed
– Must escape from huge recapitalization requirement
looming in the relatively near future
• Moving to an ADS-B-centric system can both:
– Improve surveillance service quality
– Reduce FAA capital and operating costs
• But a large cost burden would be placed on users
– Mostly on General Aviation
• Even if the FAA covered the avionics cost, it would
still obtain a net cost reduction - albeit later
Is it time to consider the flight deck a mobile NAS facility?
16
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Evolution of NAS Nav/Landing Systems
VOR/DME
FAA’s Transition Strategy
1. Introduce GNSS services
radio
2. Four-course
Allow time
for users to equip
range
3. Define backup systems/services
LORAN-C
NDB
Bonfire
4. Reduce ground-based navaids
Beacon lights Instrument Landing System
?
Omega
LAAS
GPS
Galileo
WAAS
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
17
?
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Motivation for Modernizing the
Navigation Infrastructure
• Reduce cost
– Ground navaid divestment
– Procedure termination
• Improve service
– Greater access to more runways
• Implement performance-based navigation
– Fully leverage aircraft capabilities
– RNAV everywhere; RNP where beneficial
– Vertically guided approaches for all runways
18
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
How Many Ground Navaids Can Be Divested?
Today
GPS WAAS LPV/RNP
500
Estimated 500
900
900
0
coverage at 5000
ft5000
1000
20 the 20
with about half
70
70
0
0
· MB
current
VORs
>$200M $160M $130M
$90M
VOR
DME
· NDB
NDB
ILS I
ILS II
ILS III
1000
900
600
1000
20
70
1500
1000
900
0
1000
20
70
0
Approximate Annual O&M Costs
(Technical Refresh costs not shown)
≈600 NDBs (FAA)
19
≈1500 Markers
>1500 non-FAA NDBs
(CONUS NDBs)≈1000
≈1000VORs
CAT I ILSs
VOR/DME, VORTAC, VOR
With
currentusers
“near-CAT
Once
non-FMS
are I”
Near-term reductions could
capabilities
(WAAS LPV &
equipped
with WAAS,
be made based on today’s
RNP
0.1), half
consider
divest
about
of thedivesting
GPS equipage
up to about half the
VORs
CAT I ILSs
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Navigation Modernization Summary
• The FAA is moving to Global Navigation Satellite
Services (GNSS)
– WAAS program continuing to “full LPV” capability
• The FAA also is moving to Performance-Based
Navigation to fully exploit aircraft capabilities
– Details in the Performance-Based Navigation Roadmap
• The FAA cannot afford to also sustain the entire
ground-based navigation infrastructure
• Divestment of some ground navaids and their
associated procedures is paramount
– A Navigation Services Evolution Roadmap is forthcoming
• The FAA has already begun terminating some
NDB procedures
– Where other, non-GPS procedures provide equivalent minima
20
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Questions?
21
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Accuracy Comparison
Beacon Radar* vs ADS-B/GPS/WAAS – 95% Error Bounds
WAAS/GPS/ADS-B ±12 ft.
Range Error
±49 ft.
10 Miles - ±140 ft.
20 Miles - ±280 ft.
40 Miles - ±560 ft.
* Radar azimuth measurement error varies with range from sensor. Values reflect performance
of ATCBI-6, Mode S, and MSSR subsystem of ASR-11.
22
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
General Aviation ADS-B Transition Costs
(2004 $)
(Dual Transponder TP and TJ Only)
General Aviation
Constant Year (2004) Unit Cost ($K) 2004 - 2006
2007 - 2010
2011 - 2020
Turbine Fixed Wing (TurboProp)
Not
Equipped
Capable
1
0
Latent
CDTI
3
4
2
5
BDCST
Only
Path 0 (NE -> L)
Path 1 (NE -> CDTI)
Path 2 (NE -> BCST
Path 3 (L -> CDTI)
Path 4 (L -> BCST)
Path 5 ( BCST -> CDTI)
$
$
$
$
$
$
34.0
147.3
40.6
113.5
6.6
109.4
$
$
$
$
$
$
30.5
131.4
36.2
101.1
5.7
97.4
$
$
$
$
$
$
26.9
115.6
32.2
88.5
5.3
85.2
$
$
$
$
$
$
57.1
253.9
64.6
196.3
7.5
188.8
$
$
$
$
$
$
50.8
225.7
57.4
174.5
6.6
167.8
$
$
$
$
$
$
3.8
8.8
7.8
6.0
4.0
6.0
$
$
$
$
$
$
3.0
5.5
7.0
2.5
4.0
2.5
Turbine Fixed Wing (Jet)
Path 0 (NE -> L)
Path 1 (NE -> CDTI)
Path 2 (NE -> BCST
Path 3 (L -> CDTI)
Path 4 (L -> BCST)
Path 5 ( BCST -> CDTI)
$
$
$
$
$
$
63.4
282.1
71.7
218.1
8.3
209.8
All Other
Path 0 (NE -> L)
Path 1 (NE -> CDTI)
Path 2 (NE -> BCST
Path 3 (L -> CDTI)
Path 4 (L -> BCST)
Path 5 ( BCST -> CDTI)
23
$
$
$
$
$
$
4.5
12.5
9.5
9.0
5.0
9.0
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Potential ADS-B Equipage Mandates
• Aircraft using Mode-S manufactured after January 1,
2008 must be DO-260A compliant (no cost allocated)
• Broadcast Out capability required in Class A airspace
after January 1, 2014
• Broadcast Out capability required in Class B airspace
after January 1, 2016
• Broadcast Out capability required in Class C and D
airspace after January 1, 2019
24
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
NDB Divestment (CONUS) Example
NDB Procedures
•
1588 NDB approach procedures
–
–
25
–
–
•
Approach procedure (all)
Compass locator for ILS (some)
629 NDBs owned and maintained by
FAA (494 are compass locators)
•
Divest when sufficient GPS/WAAS
equipage (e.g., 2-5 years?)
Divest after RNAV approaches are
provided (and sufficient GPS/WAAS
equipage)
Each facility can serve 2 functions:
•
•
Immediate divestiture
Procedure divestment frees
resources to develop and maintain
new LPV and RNP procedures
–
–
Remainder have no other approach
with equivalent minima
•
•
1552 NDB & compass locator facilities
494 have GPS approach with
equivalent minima
•
–
•
669 have non-GPS approach with
equivalent minima
•
–
NDB Facilities
Expect only small number that could be
divested without loss of the ILS service
for non-GPS/WAAS equipped
923 owned & maintained by “other”
Facility divestment eliminates O&M
and life-cycle replacement cost
–
–
Little near-term savings
…but, may be valuable in terms of
setting a divestiture precedent
A necessary step to motivate
GPS/WAAS equipage
GPS/WAAS equipage necessary to
enable future VOR divestiture
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Possible NDB Divestment (CONUS)
Action Plan
• Part I: Procedure divestment
1. Stop processing requests for new procedures
(2005)
2. Remove 669 approaches with equivalent VOR, ILS,
LOC, SDF approaches (2005)
3. Remove 494 approaches when enough users equip
with GPS/WAAS (2007-2009?)
4. For remaining 425 NDB approaches, assess costeffective choice for each (e.g., keep NDB approach,
or replace with LPV or RNAV approach?)
26
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.
Possible NDB Divestment (CONUS)
Action Plan (concluded)
• Part II: Facility divestment
1. Plan for no further technology refresh (2005)
2. Identify the procedure/compass-locator use for each of the
629 FAA-owned NDBs
3. Divest non-compass-locator NDBs once procedure is
divested
– Expect very few in 2005 from the 669 procedures (previous slide)
– Most NDBs serving the 494 procedures (above) are not compass
locators, and could be divested
4. Assess future need for ILS compass locator function
5. Other steps/issues: charting, pilot test standards,
maintenance staffing reduction, public notice &
communication of strategy, environmental clean-up
27
© 2005 The MITRE Corporation. All Rights Reserved.