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Influence of Capacity Constraints
on Airline Fleet Mix
Mark M. Hansen
Geoffrey D. Gosling
National Center of Excellence for Aviation Operations Research
University of California at Berkeley
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Study Objectives
Q Examine recent trends in aircraft size and
market composition at LAX
Q Assess the prospects for accommodating
growth in travel demand through the use of
larger aircraft
¥ Analyze impact of delays and capacity
constraints on aircraft size and loads
¥ Analyze operational impacts of current fleet mix
Q Assess policy implications
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70
Passengers (million)
60
50
International
40
30
Domestic Air Carrier
20
10
0
1970
Regional Airline
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
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800
Aircraft Operations (000)
700
International
600
500
400
Domestic Air Carrier
300
200
100
0
1970
Regional Airline
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Year
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Passengers per Operation
140
120
100
80
60
Air Carrier
Regional Airline
40
Total
20
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
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Regional Airline Markets
6
Sp
rin
gs
350
250
Ca
rls
ba
d
Sa
nJ
os
Or
e
an
ge
Co
un
ty
M
on
te
Sa
re
nL
y
uis
Ob
isp
o
Ba
ke
rs
fie
ld
Pa
lm
Fr
es
no
Sa
nD
ieg
Sa
o
nta
Ba
rb
ar
a
Enplaned Passengers (000)
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450
400
1988
300
1998
200
150
100
50
0
7
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Major Western U.S. Markets
8
n
an
en
ty
d
to
Ci
tle
se
1,400
rtl
am
ke
at
Jo
er
nd
x
1,800
Po
cr
La
Se
Sa
la
ni
nv
ak
oe
De
O
Ph
s
co
ga
cis
Ve
an
s
Fr
Sa
lt
n
Sa
Sa
La
Segment Traffic (000)
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2,000
1988
1,600
1999
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
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Changes in Average Aircraft Size
Seats
Destination
1988
1999
Las Vegas
San Francisco
Phoenix
Oakland
Denver
San Jose
Seattle
Salt Lake City
131
142
128
118
175
117
152
166
136
130
131
132
187
130
144
184
Sacramento
Portland
117
135
132
136
Overall
136
139
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Market Tren ds LAX-Seattle
250
1,000
Segment Traffic
900
Average Aircraft Size
800
200
Average Load Factor
Traffic (000)
700
150
600
500
100
400
300
Average Aircraft Size (seats)
Load Factor (percent)
Market Traffic
50
200
100
0
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Year
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Market Share Tren ds LAX-Seattle
100
250
AS Market Share
90
PS/US Market Share
80
200
Market Share (percent)
UA Market Share
70
AS Average Aircraft Size
UA Average Aircraft Size
60
150
50
40
100
30
20
Average Aircraft Size (seats)
DL Market Share
50
10
0
0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Year
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Airline Response to Delay
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Statistical Modeling of
Average Aircraft Size and Load
Q Studied flight segments involving 18
large East and West Coast airports
Q Regressed average aircraft size and
passenger load against
¥
¥
¥
¥
¥
Distance
Density (pax per day)
Concentration (HHI of airline traffic shares)
Average arrival delay at endpoint airports
Slot control status
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Estimated Aircraft Size Elasticities
% Increase
High Density (>300 PPD)
Low Density
in A/C Size
from 1%
Increase in: 300 SM 1000 SM 2500 SM
All
Density
0.12
0.12
0.06
0.20
Concentration
0.13
0.19
0.21
0.12
Delay
-0.38
0.87
-Adj R2
0.46
0.56
0.56
0.47
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Operational Impacts of
Current Fleet Mix
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During Peak Periods, Flights Generate
Significant Incremental Delays
Incremental Delay Impact (AC-Hrs)
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
Small
Large
1.50
B757
Heavy
1.00
0.50
0.00
0:00
2:00
4:00
6:00
8:00
10:00 12:00 14:00 16:00 18:00 20:00
22:00
0:00
Scheduled Arrival Time
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Delay Impact Ratio (DIR)
Q Weighs delay impact against convenience
Q Numerator is congestion delay impact (CDI)
of a flight (in seat-hrs)
Q Denominator is extra schedule delay if
flight did not occur, and passengers had to
take previous flight from same origin on
same airline (SDI)
Q Any flight with DIR>1 is of dubious social
value
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Some Flights Have Very High DIRs
Flight
US3 4759
US3 4734
US3 4707
US3 4793
UA3 5218
UA3 5220
OE 7338
UA3 5222
OE 7017
UA3 5224
US3 4789
UA3 5468
Type
J31
J31
J31
J31
EM2
EM2
J31
EM2
J31
EM2
J31
EM2
Seats
18
18
18
18
30
30
18
30
18
30
18
30
Origin
SAN
FAT
SAN
SAN
SAN
SAN
OXR
SAN
SNA
SAN
SAN
PSP
Time of
Departure
9:50
9:45
9:35
9:10
9:00
9:30
9:55
10:00
9:45
10:30
20:10
9:05
Previous Flight
Flight
Time of
Number Departure
4707
9:35
4729
9:25
4793
9:10
4768
8:30
5216
8:30
5218
9:00
7336
8:50
5220
9:30
7015
8:30
5222
10:00
4741
19:25
5466
8:05
SDI
5
6
8
12
15
15
20
15
23
15
14
30
CDI
247
282
292
398
425
261
308
228
338
217
191
409
DIR
55.0
47.0
38.9
33.2
28.4
17.4
15.8
15.2
15.0
14.5
14.2
13.6
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Policy Implications
Q Rationale for intervention
¥ Economic efficiency
¥ Airport development costs
¥ Consumer protection
Q Intervention strategies
¥ Voluntary programs
¥ Pricing
¥ Size / frequency regulation
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Conclusions
Q No significant increase in average aircraft
size in LAX markets over past ten years
¥ Little overall increase by large airlines
¥ Significant increase by regional airlines, offset by
replacement of large airline service
Q Modest potential for self-correction
¥ Delay costs alone may not be enough to offset
the competitive advantages of flight frequency
Q Airport intervention should be framed in the
context of long-term development strategy
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Acknowledgement
Q The research described in this
presentation was supported by the
Los Angeles World Airports
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