The shaping of future information
infrastructures
Edinburgh, Sept. 2006
Ole Hanseth, University of Oslo
Complexity
• Complexity = number of types of
components*number of types of
links*speed of change
• Dramatically increased SOCIO-TECHNICAL
COMPLEXITY: integrating technologies,
users, organizations, work practices, …
Theories of Complexity
• Propagation of (un-intended) side-effects
• Risk Society/Reflexive Modernization
– Reflexivity = boomerang-effects
– self-destructive
• Complexity Sciences
– Network externalities, path dependency, lock-in
– Self-reinforcing
• Actor-Network Theory
– Orders’ dis-orders
Complex technologies in
Organization Studies
• Perrow: Normal Accidents Theory
– Tight couplings and interactive complexity
• LaPorte (Weick): High Reliability Organizations
– Focus on risks
– Learning from experience
• Who is correct?
• The limits of knowledge and learning
• Giddens/Beck: More knowledge may lead to less
control
General pattern
• Integration to increase control (of complex
processes)
• Integration increases complexity
• = managing complexity by increasing
complexity
• => less control
Reflexive Integration: Electronic
Patient Records
• Ole Hanseth, Edoardo Jacucci, Miria Grisot, and Margunn
Aanestad
Reflexive Standardization: Side Effects and Complexity
in Standard Making
MISQ Special Issue on Standards Aug. 2006.
• Aim (1995):
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One integrated patient record
One integrated system
Norwegian standard
Better and safer patient treatment
• Result?
Making a standard => Killed it
• The beginning: 5 Norwegian regional (and university)
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hospitals + “global” vendor
Integrating data across specialities/units and hospitals
Integration with infrastructure (computers, OS, network,
..)
Integrating practices within and across hospitals
Integrated with Siemens products and strategies
Globalized the project (Scandinavia, Europe, India, US,
..)
Slow progress – competing products emerged
Health care reform in Norway: Regional standards
Getting rid of paper =>More paper
• After 8 years: 20-30% of info electronic
• Lots of “air” in printouts
• Electronic lab reports – up to 14 paper
copies
One integrated system => More
systems
• From 5 to 134 “EPR systems”
– “One patient – one record” order creates dis-order
• IVF: father and mother
• Birth: Mother & child
• ….
– specialist systems (the wider the scope, the lower
usability)
– Instruments which include “EPR’s”
–…
Integrated patient record => More
fragmentation
• More ”EPR-s”
• More paper =>
– Poorer access to paper record
– Crises in the archive
• Crises!!
• Scanning? also added to the complexity
New strategy
• 2003-2004: Portal
• Also quite complex ….
•?
Reflexivity: Global Bank
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System risks, “near disaster”
Ongoing growth and integration
Variety of e-mail systems, services, practices
E-mail: from instant messaging to business critical
archive
One integrated e-mail system, one integrated and
centralized support organization
Integration of cultures?
Bank Holiday Shutdown
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The system didn’t boot: to much e-mail
Booting locally, restoring back-ups
Access rights: full rights to everybody
Global access to sensitive information
Booted after a week
Reflexivity: Mobile Phone Billing
• Australian company went bankrupt
• Rapid growth and change over many years
– Customers, employees, services, telecom
infrastructure, IT infrastructure, ISs, ..
– Going global: expatriates
• Consultancies, outsourcing
• Communication
– Matrix
– More consultancies: mixture of methods, hiding info.
• Risk Management
– Many risks .. To many: complex system in itself
– Avoiding blame
– “Risk Shuffling” (distribution of “bads”)
Could the risks have been
managed?
• Predicted?
• Would ”best practise” make a difference?
– Spiral model/prototyping?
High Reliability Organizations?
• Learning?
– EPR: More integration
• Will experience do it?
• Or “institutionalized irresponsibility”?
The Future Internet?
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File sharing/p2p networks
DRM systems
Filterning: China, child pornography
Anti pirate software
Legislation/regulation (IPR, ..)
The future computer? (DRM, spyware, ..)
Trying to destroy each other
Spillovers (p2p, filtering/control tech., spyware, ..)
• Mobile Internet?