Priority areas for butterfly
conservation in Canada
Use of species distribution
modelling to improve coverage
Shonil Bhagwat & Paul Williams
Natural History Museum
London
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Outline
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Systematic conservation planning
Biodiversity distribution data
Species distribution modelling
Conservation priority areas
Biodiversity World ‘laboratory’
Canadian butterfly modelling results
Future research projects
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Systematic conservation planning
• Problems
• Biodiversity loss
• Climate change
Source: WWF, 2000
• Response
• Reserves
• Competing economic
interests
• Representative sample?
• Need for systematic
approach
Source: WRI, 2003
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Systematic conservation planning
Richness map of world’s
plant families
• Limited conservation
budget
• Quantitative assessment of
biodiversity distribution
• Well-informed decisions on
priority areas
• Recommendations to
Conservation policy makers
• Review of priority areas to
cope with climate change
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Biodiversity distribution data
• Large amounts of data
• Millions of records
• Well-distributed
• Museums - 2 billion
specimens
• Accurate location
• Country e.g. IUCN lists
• Region e.g. North
American butterflies
• Geographic co-ordinates
Source: Atlas of Canada, 2005
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Biodiversity distribution data
• Global Biodiversity
Information Facility
• 200 million records by
2006
• Canadian biodiversity
information facility
• Butterfly data
• 200,000 records
• 40 museums in Canada
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Biodiversity distribution data
• Advantages of Canada
Plant
hardiness
zones
• Relatively regular
patterns
• Topography
• Latitudinal gradients
• Species distribution
• Large size
Source: Atlas of Canada, 2005
• Relatively coarse-scale
data sufficient
• Coarse-scale analyses
meaningful
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Biodiversity distribution data
Population
distribution
2001
• Disadvantages of
Canada
• All major cities in the
south
• Inaccessible areas in the
north
• Data collection around
cities in the south
Source: Atlas of Canada, 2005
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Species distribution modelling
+
GCMs
=
• Solution?
• Present distribution
• General circulation
models (GCMs)
• Bioclimate prediction
• Potential distribution
• Well-informed
conservation planning
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Species distribution modelling
Canadian
protected area
network
Source: Atlas of Canada, 2005
• Future prediction
• Where will species go?
• Existing reserves?
• New reserves?
• How many?
• Where?
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Conservation priority areas
• Complementary areas
• Which areas do we need
to protect most species?
• Area selection
• Aim to represent
maximum number of
species in a minimum
number of areas
‘Greedy’ set for Canada
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Biodiversity World ‘laboratory’
• Experiments with data
and tools
• Handling large data
• Hundreds of thousands of
records
• Performing repetitive
tasks
• Modelling distributions of
300 species
• Speed-up research
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Biodiversity modelling workflow
Worldmap-compatible
text file
Climate layers
Worldmap import
Worldmap data file
Choose climate layer
Bioclimatic
modelling
Modelling
Worldmap analyses
Worldmap
area selection
algorithms
Choose algorithm
Worldmap results file
Bioclimatic modelling
Probability surface
Localities objects
Apply threshold
and mask
Data correction
taxon
DataUnique
mining
list
Data mining
Data source
Model output interpretation
Model image
Key
Convert image to text
Input or Output
Action or Process
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
ASCII grid
Biodiversity modelling workflow
Bioclimatic
modelling
Worldmap
analyses
Data mining
Model output
interpretation
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Data mining
1. From host server
1
2
• Up-to-date data
• Inconsistent server
access
• Taxonomic errors
2. From BDW cache
3
• Stable database
• Errors corrected
3. From local machine
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Bioclimatic modelling
• Climate layers
• Modelling algorithms
• BIOCLIM
• CSM
• GARP
• Present and future
climate layers
• Single and multiple
species
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Model output interpretation
• Image threshold
• Choose % value for
modelled distribution
probability
• Mask image
• Exclude modelled
distribution outside the
region of interest
• Convert image to ASCII
• For Worldmap import
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Worldmap analyses
• Biodiversity analysis
package developed by
Paul Williams
• One-degree map of the
world
• Allows import of ASCII
files
• Species richness display
• Mask for Canada
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Results: species richness
Unmodelled
Modelled
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Results: area selection
Area selection
unmodelled data
Area selection
modelled data
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
In progress: climate change
Sp1
Sp3
Sp2
Future distribution
Present distribution
Subset for
area selection
Overlapping area
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
In progress: climate change
Canadian
protected area
network
Protected areas
Priority areas
Source: Atlas of Canada, 2005
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
In progress: climate change
Source: Williams et al., Conservation Biology (in press)
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
In progress: climate change
Source: Williams et al., Conservation Biology (in press)
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Limitations: data
• Museum specimens
• Collected over decades
• Possible changes in
species’ distributions
• Approximation of the
present day
• Rare species
Colias canadensis
• Important for
conservation
• Lack of sufficient data
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Limitations: technique
• Climate models
Fundamental
• Fundamental niche of
species rather than
realised niche
• Auxiliary data, e.g.
topography, land use
may be necessary
Realised
• Scale of analysis
Global
• Finer-scale analysis to
identify precise areas
Continental
Regional
Landscape
Local
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Future research: Sichuan
Source: Williams et al., 2003
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Future research: Western Ghats
Source: Gaonkar, 2003
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Future research: N America
Common Loon Gavia immer
Source: USGS, 2005
Occurrence probability
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Source: USGS, 2005
Recorded density
Conclusions
• Systematic conservation planning requires
large amounts of biodiversity data kept in
museum worldwide
• Biodiversity World will bring additional
computing power for handling large datasets
and will speed-up research
• The modelling tools will allow prediction of
future species distributions on which
protected area design can be based
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
In progress: model output
Agriades glandon
CSM output
Agriades glandon
modelled distribution
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005
Future research
• Sichuan bumblebee distribution modelling
• Genus Bombus - 6000 records
• Modelling - high topographic variation
• Western Ghats butterfly modelling
• Data for 300 species in 0.25-degree grid cells
• Comparison - current and modelled distribution
• North America bird density modelling
• Correlation between probability of occurrence
and density?
Biodiversity World GRID Workshop
NeSC, Edinburgh – 30 June and 1 July 2005