Proceedings of Global Business and Finance Research Conference 5-6 May, 2014, Marriott Hotel, Melbourne, Australia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-50-4 The Effect of Currency Devaluation and the Labor Market with Monopolistic Competition Hong-Yu Lin The contractionary effect of currency devaluation has been investigated in different directions. This paper examines the effect of currency devaluation under the labor market with monopolistic competition. A model is developed to provide an explanation for the empirical findings of contractionary devaluation. The result shows that currency devaluation leads to a contractionary effect on the domestic output when the labor market with monopolistic competition is introduced into the open economy model. Keywords: currency devaluation; monopolistic competition; contractionary effect JEL classification: F41 I. Introduction The expansionary effect of the currency devaluation on the domestic output is first concluded by Meade (1951), Tsiang (1961), and Takayama (1969). However, Cooper (1971, 1973), Solimano (1986), Edwards (1986), Kamin and Rogers (2000), and Chou and Chao (2001) use empirical studies and find that the devaluation has contractionary effect on the domestic output. Therefore, lots of efforts are devoted in finding a new theory to support this phenomenon. For example, Krugman and Taylor (1978), Hanson (1983), van Wijnbergen (1986), Findlay and Rodriguez (1977), Buffie (1989), Taylor (1981), Lai (1990), and Lai et. al (1996).1 Although many researches have examined the empirical findings of contractionary devaluation, the market structure of monopolistic competition has never been considered as this research is still in its beginning stages. _________________ Hong-Yu Lin, Department of Business Management, Ming Chi University of Technology, Taiwan. Email: hylin@mail.mcut.edu.tw 1 Lizondo and Montiel (1989) provide a detailed overview. 0 Proceedings of Global Business and Finance Research Conference 5-6 May, 2014, Marriott Hotel, Melbourne, Australia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-50-4 The market structure with monopolistic competition was first demonstrated as a mathematical model by Dixit and Stiglitz (1977). Their model has been applied to examine different issues in macroeconomics. For example, Kiyotaki (1985), Weitzman (1985), Blanchard and Kiyotaki (1987), Startz (1989), Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995, 1996), Heijdra and van der Ploeg (1996), Hau (2000), Bacchetta and van Wincoop (2000), and Benigno (2002).2 Nevertheless, none of these literatures have evaluated the influence of currency devaluation on the domestic output under monopolistic competition. Therefore, this paper considers the labor market with monopolistic competition in the standard open economy model using the innovation of Blanchard and Kiyotaki (1987) and Obstfeld and Rogoff (1996) to explain the contractionary effect of currency devaluation. This paper is divided into four sections. Section I is designated as introduction, and the model in Section II will explain explicitly the aggregate supply function of labor market with monopolistic competition. Section III will investigate the effect of currency devaluation on domestic output while the conclusion will be presented in Section IV. II. The Model We assume that this country is a small open economy with fixed exchange rates. Domestic production is limited to a single final composite commodity. The produced products will gratify the domestic and exported demand. Both kinds of domestic and imported products are imperfect substitutes and are consumed by the domestic consumers. The model is demonstrated as followed. (1) Y C(Y ) I (r ) G T (q, Y ) L(Y , r ) M P T (q, Y ) K (r ) F (2) (3) Y S ( P, E, P * ) (4) where, Y: domestic output; C: consumption expenditure; I :investment expenditure; r: domestic interest rate; G: government expenditure; T: balance of trade; q EP * P : terms of trade; E: exchange rate ( defined as domestic 2 To use it in closed economy is the important foundation of the New Keynesian Economics. Introducing monopolistic competition into open economy is called the new open economy macroeconomics. 1 Proceedings of Global Business and Finance Research Conference 5-6 May, 2014, Marriott Hotel, Melbourne, Australia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-50-4 currency price of foreign currency ); P * : foreign currency price of imports; P: domestic currency price of domestic output; L: real money demand; M: nominal money supply ; K: net capital inflow; F: balance of payments; r * : foreign interest rate; S: aggregate supply function. According to the common macroeconomics, the variables should be limited as followed. 0 CY 1 , I r 0 , Tq 0 3, TY 0 , LY 0 , Lr 0 , K i 0 . Equation (1) represents the equilibrium condition of the commodity market while equation (2) represents the equilibrium condition of the money market. We assume that any balance-of-payments surplus or deficit will not feed into the nominal money supply because of full sterilization. Equation (3) states that the overall balance of payments is the sum of the current and capital accounts. Equation (4) is the aggregate supply function of the labor market with monopolistic competition and will be discussed further in this section. To derive equation (4), we assume that the single final composite commodity is supplied competitively. However, the representative firm must employ different types of labor N ( j ) , where j [0,1] . According to the linear-homogeneous CES production function 1 Y [ N ( j) 0 1 dj ] 1 , (5) where 1, each agent j in the economy is a monopoly supplier of N ( j ) and his market power is considered as deciding the amount of labor to supply. 4 In addition, we define w as the nominal wage index, and the pattern is, 1 1 w [ w( j )1 dj ]1 0 Therefore, the decision behavior of the representative firm is to maximize the profit within the limitation of equation (5) under the discussed conditions. The objection function can be formulated as 1 max PY w( j ) N ( j )dj 0 and the optimal condition is N ( j) ( w( j ) ) N, w (6) where N is the aggregate labor demand of the representative firm. Equation (6) 3 Tq 0 denotes that Marshall-Lerner condition is valid. 4 It also might think of each worker as the representative of a monopolistic union. 2 Proceedings of Global Business and Finance Research Conference 5-6 May, 2014, Marriott Hotel, Melbourne, Australia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-50-4 shows that the representative firm faces the downward-sloping labor demand curves. Besides, we adapt the concept from Blanchard and Kiyotaki (1987) and assume the utility function of each labor as w( j ) ( ) N ( j) N ( j) , 1, g where denotes the constant marginal utility of real wealth. Since the labors consume both domestic and imported products, we use the general price index, g EP * (1 ) P , to define the real wage. Note that represents the fraction of expenditure spent on imports and 1 denotes the elasticity of marginal disutility of labor. Hence, under the limitation of equation (6), the utility maximization for the labors can be demonstrated as5 w( j ) gN ( j ) 1 1 (7) Equation (7) implies that the real wage equals “the mark-up”( [ ( 1)] ) times marginal disutility. To derive the market equilibrium of the labor market, we focus on the symmetric equilibrium. Symmetry implies that all labors ask for the same wage and the representative firm will hire each type of labor in equal quantities. The demand for the labor is consistent with the product level. Because of the symmetric inputs, the representative firm‟s production function becomes a simple linear form, (8) YN Since the representative firm acts competitively, workers must be paid of their marginal products. Therefore, (9) wP If we apply the symmetric condition and equation (9) into equation (7), we can develop the aggregate labor supply as 1 P 1 N ( ) g 1 (10) Then, the labor market equilibrium condition can be derived using equations (8) and (10). The developed labor market equilibrium condition is shown as 5 We make the usual “large numbers”assumption that each labor regards the wages of other labors and aggregate labor demand as exogenous with respect to its own actions. 3 Proceedings of Global Business and Finance Research Conference 5-6 May, 2014, Marriott Hotel, Melbourne, Australia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-50-4 equation (11). 1 P 1 Y ( ) g 1 (11) To simplify the notation, P P* E 1 is assumed to be the initial condition through the whole paper. Then, totally differentiating equation (11) yields dY 1 1 [(1 ) ] 1 (dP dE dP ) . 1 (12) Equation (12) demonstrates clearly that a devaluation of the domestic currency or an increase in foreign prices will depress the domestic output while an increase in the domestic price will enhance the domestic output. Moreover, Figure 1 demonstrates the mathematical results of equation (12) with the presence of equations (8) – (10). P w=P AS’ AS w Y labor supply function Y=N N Figure 1 In Figure 1, the interspace between Y and N describes the production 4 Proceedings of Global Business and Finance Research Conference 5-6 May, 2014, Marriott Hotel, Melbourne, Australia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-50-4 function (equation (8)). The interspace between w and N describes the labor supply function (equation (10)) and the interspace between w and P describes the zero-profit condition, equation (9). We can obtain the labor market equilibrium locus in the interspace between P and Y using these three graphs above. We present the labor market equilibrium locus using the AS curve, and find that the domestic product price and output share a positive relationship. Also, when domestic currency devaluates because of the deflated real wage and fixed“the mark-up”, the labor supply curve shifts leftward. This result means that the AS curve shift leftward to the AS‟ curve and domestic output decreases. The same analysis is also suitable for P * and will not be discussed further in this paper. Furthermore, if the labor market tends towards perfect competition ( ), both E and P have greater effect on Y than the E and P of the labor market with monopolistic competition ( 0 ). This phenomenon indicates that changing E or P will result in larger shifting distant (rightward or leftward) for the AS curve when the labor market tending towards perfect competition than the labor market with monopolistic competition. Equation (12) can also be demonstrated as a function. (4) Y S ( P, E, P * ) S P S E S P* 1 1 [(1 ) ] 1 0 1 The discussion in this section concludes that equation (4) is the aggregate supply function of the labor market with monopolistic competition. III. The Effect of Devaluation Under fixed exchange rates, equations (1)-(4) can be simultaneously solved to determine Y, r, P, and F. Totally differentiating equations (1)-(4) and using Cramer‟s rule, we can the derive equation (13). Ir M Y 0 E [(1 CY TY ) Lr I r LY ] (Tq Lr I r M ) S E (13) Equation (13) obviously shows that currency devaluation will definitely depress the domestic output when the labor market with monopolistic competition is considered.6 To show the effect of currency devaluation onto a 6 From equation (13), we can find that currency devaluation will depress the domestic output if the labor market tends toward perfect competition ( ). 5 Proceedings of Global Business and Finance Research Conference 5-6 May, 2014, Marriott Hotel, Melbourne, Australia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-50-4 diagram, equations (14) and (15) must be developed. Equation (14) represents the P and Y combinations that gratify equilibriums of both goods market and money market. Furthermore, equation (14) is obtained by totally differentiating the equations (1) and (2), and combining these two equations with the replacement of r. Note that the replacement of r is achieved using the differentiated equations (1) and (2). [(1 CY TY ) Lr I r LY ]dY [ I r M Tq Lr ]dP Lr dG I r dM Tq Lr (dE dP ) (14) The locus formed by P and Y combinations is the aggregate demand curve and will be represented as AD curve. From the equation (14), we know that the slope of the AD curve is [(1 CY TY ) Lr I r LY ] P 0. Y AD I r M Tq Lr From equation (4), the locus for the equilibrium of labor market formed by P and Y combinations can be achieved and is represented as the AS curve. P 1 The slope of the locus is (15) 0 Y AS S P We draw the AD and AS curves on Figure 2 and assume that the economic system is on the position Q0 at the beginning stage and the reflected domestic price and domestic output are P0 and Y0 , respectively. P AS’ AS P1 Q1 P0 Q0 AD’ AD 0 Y1 Y0 Figure 2 6 Y Proceedings of Global Business and Finance Research Conference 5-6 May, 2014, Marriott Hotel, Melbourne, Australia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-50-4 Figure 2 shows that the AD and AS curves shift upward when the currency devaluates. The upwards shifting distant of the AS curve is larger than the AD curve.7 This observation implies that the domestic output decreases and domestic price rises when economic system reaches the new equilibrium point Q1 . Moreover, this result indicates that currency devaluation definitely results in stagflation. The analysis of the equation (13) shows that the currency change has more significant effect on the domestic output when labor market tends toward perfect competition ( ) than the labor market with monopolistic competition ( 0 ). This conclusion shows that when labor market tends toward perfect competition, the leftward shifting distant of the AS curve causing by currency devaluation is larger than that under labor market with monopolistic competition. Therefore, when labor market tends toward perfect competition, the contractionary effect of devaluation is more drastic than that under labor market with monopolistic competition.8 IV. Conclusion Using a standard open economy model, this paper examines the effect of currency devaluation by considering the labor market with monopolistic competition. It shows that currency devaluation will definitely depress the domestic output. This conclusion provides an explanation for the empirical findings of contractionary devaluation. In addition, we also compare the effect of currency devaluation on the domestic output under different market structures. The results show that when labor market tends toward perfect competition, the contractionary effect of currency devaluation on the domestic output is more drastic than that under the labor market with monopolistic competition. 7 From the equation (4), we know: know: 0 8 P E AD P E Tq L r I r M Tq L r 1 ; from the equation (14), we AS 1. From equations (4) and (15), we can find that the AS curve is flatter if σis larger. Therefore, when domestic currency devaluates, the upward shifting distance for the AS curve is the same. 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