Proceedings of 3rd Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 February 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-19-1 Provident Fund in Malaysia: Sustainability of Retirement Income Provision Saidatulakmal Mohd The Provident Fund in Malaysia is the first provident fund established in the world in 1951. The aim of the fund is a scheme to provide non-labour income to the elderly upon retirement. This fund a defined contribution scheme funded through the contribution of the employee and the employer. Given the increasing number of elderly in the world as well as Malaysia, a scheme lik e the provident fund is necessary as a mechanism to continue providing income to the elderly to finance their retirement expenses. This paper assesses the equity, efficiency and efficacy of the fund in its ab ility to continue providing non-labour income to the elderly. Areas of assessment include adequacy of retirement benefits, return on investments, nature of the scheme and coverage level. The study concludes that at present the accumulated savings in the provident fund is inadequate to provide continuous retirement income to the elderly. This situation is worsened by the low return on investment of the fund. In addition, the nature of a provident fund itself does not encourage a stable savings fund after retirement. Moreover, the fund fails to be extended to the whole population, in which the informal sector is neglected from receiving retirement benefits. Field of Research: Provident fund, Retirement income, Sustainability 1.0 Introduction There are at least six common areas in which the success of any social security retirement programmes or pensions schemes can be assessed. The six areas are 1. Equity, efficiency and efficacy of the programmes or schemes; 2. Achieving the goals of poverty alleviation and consumption smoothing; 3. Favourable macroeconomic effects, especially in promoting saving, investment and output; 4. Favourable external effects, particularly in the financial sector development; 5. Favourable effects on the labour market; E Rp Rf 6. Sound financial performance measured by the Sharpe index1: Sp Rp where E Rp is portfolio return, Rf is risk free return and Ro is the standard deviation. ____________ Author‟s affiliation: School of Social Sciences, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11800 Penang, Malaysia. Author‟s email address: eieydda@usm.my Proceedings of 3rd Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 February 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-19-1 The provident fund in Malaysia, introduced in 1951 is a scheme that provides retirement income to the elderly in Malaysia. The provident fund is a defined contribution scheme funded by the employee and employer. The current contribution rate is 11 percent and 12 percent for employee and employer respectively. Although the scheme is generally for the private sector, the civil servants can opt for this scheme after a compulsory contribution into the fund for three years. Being the biggest retirement scheme in Malaysia, the provident fund is seen as an important provision of non labour income for the elderly. Nevertheless, the fund has been questioned on not being able to provide adequate financial protection to the elderly. Hence, the issue of sustainability on the retirement income provision to the elderly is highly debatable. What more, with the changing in the demographic trends of the elderly in the world, including Malaysia, the issue on sustaining the retirement income for the elderly should be given a number one priority in government policy agenda. This paper assesses the equity, efficiency and efficacy of the provident fund in providing retirement income to the elderly. The assessment covers the aspect of adequacy of retirement benefits, return to investment and coverage. In assessing the programmes, considerations and suggestions for reforms are discussed to further improve the current system. The paper begins by providing a brief background of the changes in the demographic trends of the elderly. 2.0 Demographic Trends of the Elderly There have been many discussions, debates and conferences on the issue of retirement financing in the world. The main concerns are ageing, longevity and inadequacy of retirement income to the aged. Greater concern relates to the developing countries particularly because of their much increase life span. A report released by the United Nations (2002) on demographic trends includes the following: 1. In 2000, about 0.6 billion people, 10 percent of the world‟s population were over 60 years of age. 2. By 2025, people over 60 years of age will double to 1.18 billion (approximately 15 percent of the world‟s population) 3. By 2050, people over 60 years of age will be 1.96 billion (approximately 21.1 percent of world population) 4. In 2000, the life expectancy at 60 years of age, for the total population was 18.8 years in which by 2025, these numbers will be 21 years. 5. Many developing countries (especially India and China) will have an „old‟ demographic profile, at a much lower level of per capita income than the industrial countries. Malaysia is not excluded from this trend, in which the population is ageing and the elderly dependency ratio is increasing. As a whole, the proportion of population above 60 years old will increase to about 14.5 percent in 2030; a rise of 8.8 percent from 1990 (Heller, 1997). One of the reasons for this is the longer life expectancy. The Department of Statistics (1998) classify the elderly into two groups, namely the young-old (60-74 years) and the old-old (75 years and above). Table 1 below shows the demographic trends of the elderly in Malaysia. Proceedings of 3rd Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 February 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-19-1 Table 1 indicates that the number of elderly is increasing. In 1980, the young-old and the old-old populations were 813 thousands and 219 thousands, respectively. This number had increased to 1.15 million and 267 thousands for the young-old and oldold population after another 2 decades. It is projected that the figures will continue to rise to 2.63 million for the young-old population and 574 thousands for the old-old population in the year 2020. It is apparent from the figures that the young-old population is expanding at an accelerating rate compared to that of the old-old population. This suggests that the trend will exhibit an upward turn once the cohort of young-old advances in age (Sim, 2001). While the number of the elderly is increasing, the growth in the average annual rate of the labour force is projected to decrease. Heller (1997) predicted that the average annual rate of labour force growth would decrease from 2.6 percent between 1990-2000 to 1.6 percent between 20002030 and 0.5 percent between 2030-2050. This indicates that the Malaysian population is ageing and the issue of retirement financing should be a top priority for the nation‟s policy makers. Table 1 Demographic Trends of the Elderly Numbers („000) Percentage Growth Rate YoungOld-Old Young- Old-Old Young- Old-Old Old Old Old 1980 745.2 604.5 140.7 81.1 18.9 1991 1,032.3 813.1 219.2 78.8 21.1 2.7 4.0 2000 1,418.2 1,150.8 267.4 81.1 18.9 3.9 2.2 2010 2,076.1 1,688.4 387.7 81.3 18.7 3.8 3.7 2020 3,209.8 2,635.0 574.8 82.1 17.9 4.5 3.9 Source: Senior Citizens and Population Ageing in Malaysia, Department of Statistics Year Total („000) Will the elderly be able to support themselves with the retirement income available to them or will they have to depend on their children to finance their old-age consumption? Hence, it is important to analyse on how the current provident fund could provide a sustainable non-labour income to the elderly to finance their retirement expense. This paper discusses the issues based on the provident fund that exist in Malaysia. The provident fund, a defined contribution scheme, as stated by Kpessa (2011) requires strong and effective government with the capacity to enforce the payment of contributions and to regulate the management of privately managed social security funds. In this regard, the Malaysian government made it compulsory for all employees (at least in the formal sector) to contribute to the provident fund with shared contribution from their employers. The sustainability of this fund in providing sustainability retirement income to its contributors is assessed via several issues that are adequacy of retirement benefits, investment policies and performance, nature of the schemes and coverage. 3.0 Adequacy of Retirement Benefits A survey conducted by the provident fund on the pattern of expenditure on the basic needs of contributors who had withdrawn all their savings since taking retirement in order to cover expenditure on basic needs excluding medical care for catastrophic illnesses, is between RM 510 to RM 1,000 per month2 (Ibrahim, 2004). The survey Proceedings of 3rd Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 February 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-19-1 also indicates that a member will need today at least RM 85,000 at retirement age to finance his/her basic needs for the next 20 years to at least reaching 75 years of age (of approximately RM 4,250 per year). The issue of adequacy of retirement benefits will be evaluated based on the social security retirement wealth per capita calculated following the work of Mohd (2006). Mohd (2006) found out that an individual who started contributing to the provident fund at the age of 33 in 1990, will only have an actuarial discounted value of accumulated saving of approximately RM 10,893 at retirement, while a person contributing to the provident fund at the age of 34 in 2001 will have approximately RM 41,844 at retirement. The result provides an early indication on the failure of the provident fund in providing adequate retirement benefits to the elderly. Moreover, the provident fund itself has not denied its failure (Ibrahim, 2004). While the calculation of Mohd (2006) has been adjusted to take into account the inflation rate, in reality the accumulated saving in the provident fund is not indexed for inflation. This means that initial accumulated saving from the provident fund to be received at retirement could be misleadingly high, and employees might think they can afford to retire, discovering later that with inflation, their pension turns out to be inadequate. One solution would be to index the retirement benefits 1 and the pension payment to the consumer price index (CPI). But that would mean that the relative value of a pension as a proportion of average earnings will fall. This, however, only happens in specific condition where the average CPI is linked with inflation and the timing of the indexation that is after events i.e. end of year or on-going. Beattie (1998) found out that if a pension is indexed to the CPI, for Asian economies, a pensioner‟s relative value of pension would be less than half of his initial level after twenty years in retirement, and under a third after thirty years in retirement. Another solution would be to index the retirement benefits to earnings. In this instance, pensioners will benefit from an increase in income during periods of economic growth but at the same time suffer from a decrease in income during recession time. 4.0 INVESTMENT POLICIES AND PERFORMANCE One of the reasons for the inadequacy of retirement benefits is the low return on contributions from the provident fund. At the end of each calendar year, the provident would announce a rate of return on the accumulated saving in terms of a dividend. As stipulated by the Employee Provident Fund Act, the dividend should be a minimum of 2.5 percent. As emphasised by Asher, Oum and Parulian (2010) the rate of return on savings in the provident fund is highly dependent on the investment strategy which is constrained by regulations. 1 Retirement benefits from EPF, however, could only be indexed to inflation if the benefits are taken out as periodic payment instead of a lump sum payment at retirement. Proceedings of 3rd Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 February 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-19-1 On average, the real rate of return has been 3.45 percent and has almost always been positive, with the exception of the oil crisis years of 1973 and 1974 and for 1981. The provident fund has demonstrated a good performance compared to the notion that provident funds provide interest rates level below that of the rate of inflation (Williamson and Pampel, 1998) Although the real rate of return indeed exceeds the minimum rate of 2.5%, the dividends are thought to be low compared to comparable alternative domestic assets with market-determined rates (Fry, 1992 as cited in Bateman and Piggot, 1997) and the returns that could be achieved on domestic bank deposit rates (Iglesias and Palacios, 1999 as cited in Clark, 2002). For the case of Malaysia, the interest rates announced, adjusted for inflation, have always been higher (for most of the years) than the bank saving deposit rates. This so-called low return is associated with the low risk investments that EPF has been adopting for the past years in order to protect members‟ capital. Since provident funds are funded, the government controls how funds are invested, i.e. meeting government‟s need for low interest loans to finance development projects, has often led to poor returns (Williamson and Pampel, 1998). The Employee Provident Fund Act emphasises that up to seventy percent should be in Malaysian Government Securities (MGS). Asher (2000) emphasises that a provident fund, which is 100 percent invested in government bonds, is akin to a pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) system. This means that future generations of taxpayers will have to redeem the bonds with their tax payments. Hence, during this period, it could be concluded that the provident fund is similar to the PAYGO system instead of a fully-funded defined contributions scheme. The 1991 revisions to the Employee Provident Fund Act, however, allow for more diversification of fund investment when investment in the MGS was decreased to fifty percent. This revision was parallel with the government‟s embarking on privatisation projects and since 1991 the share of MGS has been reducing, whereas, investments in the money market, including bonds, loans and equities have been increasing. The return to investment, calculated as the total investment income per total investments also shows a decreasing trend from the years 1979 to 2000. The planned to invest abroad was granted permission to do so prior to the 1997 financial crisis. The “investment abroad strategy” of approximately RM 1 billion was postponed due to the capital control regulation on exit levy on portfolio investments. The decision to diversify investment is intended to provide better returns to the members. However, what members do not realise, is that it is the investments in the MGS that have helped the fund to produce good dividends to members. The shift away from MGS has led to the reduction in dividend rates since 1995 up to 2001 as can be inferred from Table 9.3.1 (previous page). As emphasised by Asher (1998), the main reason is that MGS have provided traditionally risk-free, guaranteed, rather high rates of return to the provident fund. Other investments though deemed to provide higher returns, exhibit higher volatility and risk as well. For example, the provi dent fund strategy to invest in equity market was a wrong decision due to the collapse of the stock market during the 1997 financial crisis. Another reason for the drop in returns of investment income is that provident fund investment has been channelled to finance government projects or to bail out inefficient government development Proceedings of 3rd Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 February 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-19-1 projects during the financial crisis. This information, although it is not formally admitted by the government or the EPF itself, has come to the attention of the public. Even though the government backs up the provident fund, provident fund members will still bear the financial burden for any failure of investment projects (Asher, 2001). Members pay the price in regard to lower returns to capital. Would diversification in the choice investments be a good move, to increase the rate of return? Is it time then to privatise or partly privatise the social security retirement programmes in Malaysia? Privatisation would mean that the schemes would be more competitive, being able to invest in a greater variety of investment channels. The introduction of a privatised pension scheme might increase the rate of economic growth and improve the standard of living for both the general and the elderly population (Williamson and Pampel, 1998). The Latin American countries (Chile and Argentina, for example) fully or partially privatised their social security retirement programmes and so far this has been producing positive results. Or should the Malaysian social security retirement programmes be more decentralised, like that of Australia, to ensure more openness and efficiency in the administration and operation of the schemes? Diversification of investments, particularly into equities and properties, might produce a higher return rather than concentrating on government development projects i.e. infrastructure. Diversification of investments could be accomplished through privatisation. For a developed capital market, this could be accomplished easily as private pension funds are allowed to compete with each other. In developing countries, however, with a less developed financial market, privatisation cannot guarantee a substantial positive impact on the economy unless privatisation itself leads to the development of the capital and financial market. 5.0 Nature of the Schemes The World Bank (2004) suggests The Three Pillar Model of a pension scheme. The first pillar is the public defined benefit or pay-as-you-go (PAYGO) scheme aimed at poverty reduction through redistribution. The second pillar is a mandatory private defined contribution scheme aimed at consumption smoothing, and the third pillar is a voluntary saving account. The Malaysian social security retirement scheme can be regarded as falling under the second pillar. While the main objective of the provident fund is to assist with retirement income, the fund itself allows for withdrawals for housing, medical as well as pre-retirement benefits. This is a typical administration of a provident fund. Graphically, following Asher (1998), the accumulation and decumulation phases of a provident fund can be depicted as in Figure 1 below. The cumulative balance in the graph is net cumulative balance (contributions – withdrawals) plus interest accrued. Saving is accumulated and earns interest during the accumulation phase i.e. working period. Even though withdrawals are allowed, they should be set at a minimum level to ensure a positive amount in the fund for further accumulation of saving. In the second phase, savings are withdrawn either lump sum or periodically, which leaves the fund to deplete to zero. Proceedings of 3rd Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 February 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-19-1 The allowable withdrawals decrease the accumulated saving for retirement purposes. More stringent rules need to be adopted to ensure that withdrawals are limited and that the aim of putting money aside for retirement years is accomplished. As the withdrawal scheme has been in the system for a long time, removal of the withdrawal scheme would not be the solution as it would lead to resistance among the contributors. One alternative would be to treat withdrawals as a means of borrowing from the fund. Any withdrawals made from the fund should be replenished by the amount equal to, less than or up to a certain percentage amount equivalent to the withdrawals made. The replenishment could be made by extra contributions from the members. This would ensure that at least more money is put in after the withdrawal and the accumulated saving would not deplete by as much as when withdrawal is made without any replenishment. A probably stricter rule should apply to the civil servants who only contribute for three years into the fund. Since the contributions of the civil servants are lower than those made by the private workers, their accumulated saving is much lower. Hence, withdrawal should be prohibited by this group to ensure at least, that during retirement, in addition to the pension to be received from the government, they will have at least some extra disposable income. The lump sum benefits at retirement cannot be regarded as an appropriate form of social protection (Beattie, 1998). Realising that periodical benefits payment is essential to secure adequate income during retirement years, the provident fund proposes periodic payment to its members. However, as of the end of 1996, fewer than 120 people had opted for phased withdrawal. The provident fund then introduced a voluntary annuity scheme in the year 2001, but this was abolished a year later due to the limited response. To guarantee at least a minimum adequacy of retirement benefits, the provident fund should propose to make periodic benefit payments compulsory. While an individual should be permitted to make their own spending decisions from their retirement money, the fact that individuals tend to be myopic will mean that they would likely opt for the one lump sum payment and finish the money. While individuals are allowed to choose between a lump sum and a periodical benefit, there is, then, a very strong tendency that the individuals will opt for the former (Beattie, 1998). In addition to the situation in Malaysia, this is apparently the case in Fiji. The Fiji National Provident Fund offered its members the choice between the traditional lump-sum benefit and a pension for life. The attractiveness of choosing a pension is that the annuity factors used to convert individual balances into pensions are generous at 25% for single-life pensions and 16.7% for joint-life pensions as compared with the actuarial annuity factors which have been calculated as 10% and 8%, respectively. Only 10% of the balances are converted into pensions and the rest continue to be withdrawn as lump sum payment. Alternatively, Malaysia could adopt a similar approach to that practised by the Singapore Central Provident Fund. Instead of obliging members to convert the entire saving in the fund to periodic payment for retirements, in 1995, it was ruled that a minimum sum of S$40,000 should be put aside upon reaching the age 55 to finance a regular monthly benefit. This minimum amount was gradually raised to S$80,000 in the year 2002. Instead of just having the second pillar pension scheme, this method could be used to set up a first pillar pension scheme. Setting a portion of saving Proceedings of 3rd Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 February 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-19-1 aside for periodic payment during retirement could ensure that at least the elderly would have at least a minimum amount of money every month to support themselves. It is so because, in addition to ensuring adequate retirement saving for its members, the EPF should ensure at least minimum levels of benefits to its members to comply with ILO standards. By having the first pillar pension scheme, it could be possible to ensure a minimum retirement income each month throughout the retirement years of the elderly. Therefore, realising the inadequacy of retirement benefits both in the private and the public sector, a third pillar retirement scheme as suggested by the World Bank could be necessary. This however is voluntary, and getting people to save voluntarily for retirement is difficult. The government may attempt to make private pensions compulsory (could mean that workers may run down other voluntary savings, and if there‟s a state safety-net, poorer workers will often choose to spend now rather than to save). This third-tier system is yet to take deep root in Asia, even in countries such as the Republic of Korea and Japan (Asher, 2002). A plan was drafted in May 2004 by the Malaysian Trade Union Congress (MTUC) for the establishment of private pension plans. It is planned that the private pension scheme is put under the administrative of the provident fund. This, however, could lead to an excess burden on the provident fund in administering the provident fund. Even now, the provident fund sometimes has problems in its processing of withdrawal applications. In early April 2012, the securities commission (SC) has announced that it has given approval to eight firms to offer private retirement scheme (PRS) to the public. The firms are AmInvestment Management, American International Assurance, CIMB-Principal Asset Management, Hwang Investment Management, ING Funds, Manulife Unit Trust, Public Mutual and RHB Investment Management. 6.0 Coverage The social security retirement scheme in Malaysia fails to cover all population, especially those who are self-employed and agricultural workers. More than half of the population works in the private sector, contributing to the provident fund. Hence, the elderly population would definitely live in poverty during retirement and would still have to depend on their children for financial support. People who are self-employed are encouraged to contribute to the provident fund, but they are not too willing to save for retirement through this channel. Those in the rural areas; working in the plantation and agricultural sectors, who do not have any formal retirement schemes, would definitely revert to their children for financial support or live in poverty during retirement. It is not an easy task to ensure that the self-employed workers provide voluntary contributions to the provident fund. The Philippines has started to make it compulsory for self-employed workers to contribute to a pension scheme. The Republic of Korea, for example, starting in 1995, has obliged self-employed workers such as farmers, fishing workers and the rural self-employed to contribute three percent of earnings, a rate which is to be increased by three percent every five years until it reaches nine percent. The administration of the scheme and the cost of providing protection to this group of people are subsidised by the government. The downside of this system is the extra burden imposed on the employed workers and their employers. This is so because Proceedings of 3rd Asia-Pacific Business Research Conference 25 - 26 February 2013, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, ISBN: 978-1-922069-19-1 the Korean pension benefit includes a relatively large flat-rate element, which means that there is considerable redistribution towards pensioners who, during their working lives have had the lowest insured earnings. 7.0 Conclusions In this paper, discussion has centred on the evaluation of the credibility of the provident fund in providing non labour income to the elderly and continuing providing income throughout the elderly retirement years. This evaluation is particularly important because of the increasingly elderly population in Malaysia. Even though the rate of growth of the elderly population is low, if measures are not taken now to ensure to meet the needs of retirement life, an abrupt and damaging situation will be faced when the situation arrives. Without planning and counter solutions now, the government will be left facing problems of poverty among the elderly and shortage in the labour market. The latter is due to the early withdrawal of the elderly prior to retirement and fewer of the young to take over. The evaluation of the provident fund indicates that the accumulated saving is inadequate to finance retirement expenses. The inadequacy of the fund is the consequence of two major problems: investments in the MGS and inappropriate government development projects have led to lower returns to the fund; and early withdrawals for housing purposes and pre-retirement benefits have led to the depletion of the accumulated savings in the fund. While the Malaysian financial system is still young and volatile, privatisation is unlikely to ensure a better financial governance of the system. However, a greater diversification in investments would be a better approach to generate more income. While the government tries to accommodate every single working group in certain social security retirement programmes, it is impossible to cover every single cohort in the population. References Asher, M.G. 1998. The Future of retirement protection in Southeast Asia, International Social Security Review, 51(1), 3-30. Asher, M.G. 2000. Social security reform imperatives: the Southeast Asian case [online]. Department of Economics, National University of Singapore. Available from: http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/docs/wp/wp02.pdf [accessed December 28th 2004]. Asher, M.G. 2001. Pension reform, capital markets and corporate governance in Malaysia, Journal of Financial Regulation and Compliance, 9(1), 30-37. Asher, M.G. 2002. Behavioral Economics and Retirement Well-being in Asia [online]. Department of Economics, National University of Singapore. Available from: http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/docs/wp/wp21.pdf [accessed December 28th 2004]. Asher, M.G., Oum, S. and Parulian, F. 2010. 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Averting the old-age crisis: Policies to protect the old and promote growth, Oxford University Press, New York. 1 A Sharpe index > 1 indicates a good performance in relation to the level of risk taken while a Sharpe index < 1 indicates not such good performance. 2 This is the range of minimum account required for maintenance provided that the elderly does not have any more mortgages to pay and does not have to support any more dependents.