Proceedings of 34th International Business Research Conference 4 - 5 April 2016, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-925488-02-9 Corporate Cash Holdings: An Empirical Investigation of Indian Companies Ravinder Kumar Arora The paper examines the pattern of cash holdings of 266 Indian companies comprised in the S&P BSE 500 index for the period 2005-2015 to understand the factors that influence the level of cash balances. The sample companies hold nearly 12 per cent of their total assets as cash in 2015. The pattern of cash holdings of the sample companies is supported by the static trade-off as well as the financing hierarchy model. Consistent with earlier evidence, firms with large cash balances have higher market-to-book ratios, higher cash flows and higher cash flow volatility. Companies that have more liquid assets other than cash, have more tangible assets and pay more to their shareholders hold lower cash balances. However, contrary to earlier evidence, size of the firm is not related to the amount of cash holding. Further, firms with large cash balances have higher leverage. Field of Research: Finance 1. Introduction Firms hold cash and other liquid assets to facilitate their transactions (the transaction motive), to meet possible emergencies (the precautionary motive) and to take advantage of profitable future investment opportunities (speculative motive). However, cash holding also has an opportunity cost as idle cash does not generate any income. Excess cash may also have ‘agency costs’ as it may be spent by corporate managers on value-reducing projects. Therefore, the decision as to how much cash should a company hold becomes important. Empirical studies show that the amount of cash held by firms varies across countries Swiss non-financial firms held cash ranging between 10-15% of their total assets during 1995-2004 (Drobetz and Gruninger,2007), Italian private firms held 10% during 1996-2005 (Bigelli and Sanchez –Vidal,2012), UK firms held 9.9% during 1984-1999 (Ozkan and Ozkan, 2004), Spanish firms held 7.14-8.8% during 19972001(Garcia-Teruel and Martinez Solano, 2008), Japanese firms held 18.5% during 1974-1995 (Pinkowitz and Williamson, 2001) and the U.S. public firms held 20.45 % cash in 2011 (Gao, et al., 2013). The variation in cash holding across different countries may be due to difference in firm characteristics and corporate governance structure in these countries. Even though an extensive amount of research regarding corporate cash holding has been conducted in developed markets, mainly U.S (Kim et al., 1998; Opler et al, 1999; Harford, 1999; Mello et al.,2008; Gao, et al., 2013), U.K.(Ozkan and Ozkan, 2004), EMU (Ferreira and Vilela, 2004; Pal and Fernando,2010), Netherland (Bruinshoofd and Kool, 2004), Belgium (Deloof,2001), Spain (Garcia and Solano, 2008), Turkey (Uyar and Kuzey, 2014), no related study, to the best of my knowledge, has been made in the Indian context. In India, companies other than banking and finance companies that are included in the S&P BSE 500 index had a cash and bank balance of approximately Rs.3,124 billion (US$ 48 billion approx.) at the end of accounting year 2015 The three largest holders of cash were Infosys (Rs.277 billion or US$ 4.3 billion approx.), NMDC (Rs.184 billion or US$2.8 billion approx.) and Wipro (Rs.157 billion or US$2.4 billion approx.). ___________________________________________________________ Author: Ravinder Kumar Arora, International Management Institute, B-10, Qutab Institutional Area, New Delhi-110 016. Email: rkarora@imi.edu Proceedings of 34th International Business Research Conference 4 - 5 April 2016, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-925488-02-9 India is an emerging market. Emerging markets differ from developed markets in several respects. Emerging markets have a higher growth potential, lax regulatory environment, weak corporate governance and greater information asymmetry between firms and investors. There is also higher dependence of firms on internal funds as market imperfections in these markets make external financing more costly for them. It is, therefore, of interest to understand the cash holding behaviour of Indian firms. Using a sample of 266 Indian firms over the period 2005-2015, this paper examines the determinants of cash holdings by the sample companies. 2. Literature Review A large number of empirical studies have investigated the determinants of corporate cash holding in different countries. Opler, et.al. (1999) examine the determinants of corporate holding of cash by publicly traded US firms from 1971-1994 and find that smaller, riskier companies with promising growth opportunities and higher spending on R&D choose to hold more cash than large, stable, and relatively mature companies with reliable access to outside capital. Ferreira and Vilela (2004) investigate the determinants of corporate cash holdings in EMU countries and find that cash holdings are positively affected by investment opportunity set and cash flows and negatively affected by asset liquidity, leverage and size. Ozkan and Ozkan (2004) investigate the empirical determinants of corporate cash holdings for a sample of UK firms. They find evidence of a significant non-monotonic relation between managerial ownership and cash holdings. Further, firms’ cash balances are negatively related to leverage, cash flows and positively related to the market-to-book (MB) ratio. They do not find a significant relation between cash holding and firm size. Based on a study of cash holdings of a broad sample of Swiss non-financial firms between 1995 and 2004, Drobetz and Gruninger (2006) report that asset tangibility and firm size are both negatively related to cash holdings while dividend payments and operating cash flows are positively related. Further, they observe a non-linear relationship between leverage and cash holdings and no significant relationship of cash holdings with growth opportunities. Duchin (2007) and Dittmar (2008) relate the amounts of cash held by companies to their increased risk. Garcia and Solano (2008) observe that firms with more growth opportunities and larger cash flows have higher target cash levels while the target cash levels are lower when the use of bank debt and the substitutes for cash increase. Mello, et al. (2008) find higher cash ratios associated with smaller firms and firms with high R&D expenses, low net working capital and low leverage. Bigelli and Vidal (2012) study a wide sample of Italian private firms and observe that cash holdings are significantly related to size, risk, effective tax rates, cash conversion cycles and financing deficits. Gao, et al. (2013) find that agency problems affect both the firms’ target level of cash and how managers react to cash in excess of the target. Uyar and Kuzey (2014) find that cash levels of Turkish firms are positively associated with cash flows, growth opportunities and negatively associated with the amount of capital expenditure, liquid assets, degree of tangibility of assets, financial debt ratio and leverage. They also observe that the Turkish firms have a target cash level. Some of the important firm characteristics that may have an influence on the level of cash held, identified by the above studies, include firm size, growth opportunities, cash flows and their stability, leverage, availability of liquid assets, asset tangibility, capital expenditure, expenditure on research and development and acquisitions , Proceedings of 34th International Business Research Conference 4 - 5 April 2016, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-925488-02-9 payout to shareholders, and promoter shareholding percentage, length of cash conversion cycle, probability of financial distress, etc. 3. The Methodology and Model The sample for the study has been selected from the universe of companies comprised in the S&P BSE-500 Index. The S&P BSE 500 index, consisting of 500 stocks, represents nearly 93% of the total market capitalisation on BSE (Mumbai Stock Exchange). It covers all 20 major industries of the economy. The sample excludes financing, investment, credit rating companies and utilities. The period of the study is 2005-2015. Companies for which data on all variables is not available for the entire ten-year period have also been excluded. The final sample consists of 266 firms. With 11 years of data on these 266 firms, the number of firm years covered in the study is 2926. In line with the earlier studies, the variables used in the study are defined as follows: The dependent variable in this study is the cash-to-assets Ratio (CA). It is measured as the ratio of cash and cash equivalents to total assets minus cash and cash equivalents. Growth Opportunities: The ratio of the market value of a firm's assets to the book value of its assets (MB) is used as a proxy for its future growth opportunities. Firms with strong growth opportunities face higher financial distress cost and are, therefore, expected to hold larger cash balances to avoid high financial distress cost. The trade-off theory, therefore, posits a positive relation between cash holding and growth opportunities. Firms with higher growth opportunities are expected to hold more cash as these firms would not like to forego profitable investment opportunities. Also such firms are characterized by higher level of information asymmetry and are reluctant to raise external finance due to its higher cost. On the other hand, growth firms may not accumulate cash as these firms will be relying more on internal resources. Therefore, in the pecking order world, there can be both a positive and negative relationship between cash holdings and the MB ratio. Firms with poor investment opportunities may also hold higher amounts of cash if the agency theory holds. Firm size (RS) is measured as the natural logarithm of the book value of assets in 2005 Indian rupees. Firm size can both be positively and negatively related to cash holdings. Large firms can raise external finance at a lower cost as they enjoy economies of scale, have lesser information asymmetry and being diversified, face a lower probability of financial distress. They are, therefore, expected to hold low cash balances. On the other hand, large firms may generate higher levels of cash flows and accumulate more cash. . Leverage (LEV) is measured using the debt-to-assets ratio defined as (long-term debt plus short-term debt) divided by book value of assets. Firms with higher leverage may hold lower levels of cash reserves. According to the pecking order theory, firms increase debt when their investments exceed retained earnings and in such situations, the cash levels decrease. High leverage firms are also subject to higher investor scrutiny and low managerial discretion, leading to lower cash reserves. Conversely, high leverage firms may hold higher cash balances due to a Proceedings of 34th International Business Research Conference 4 - 5 April 2016, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-925488-02-9 higher probability of financial distress. Therefore, Cash holding may have either a positive or negative relation with leverage. . Cash flow (CF) is measured as earnings after interest, dividends, and taxes, but before depreciation and amortisation, divided by net assets. The relationship between cash flows and cash flows can be expected to be either positive or negative. It should be positive when firms accumulate such cash flows to build up financial slack after meeting their cash requirement for new projects, for repayment of debt and for payment of dividend. It should be negative when firms do not feel the necessity to keep large amounts of cash in view of high cash flows. R&D expense-to-sales ratio (RD) is used as a measure of product uniqueness and the potential for financial distress costs. Firms that do not report R&D expenses are considered to be firms with no R&D expenses. Firms that spend more on R&D are expected to hold large cash holdings. Capital expenditure to assets ratio (CE) measures the effect of capital expenditure on cash holdings. Capital expenditure and cash holding are expected to have a negative relationship. Net working capital, minus cash (NWC) is used as a measure of liquid asset substitutes. Firms that have higher amounts of liquid asset substitutes (e.g. inventory, receivables) can liquidate these assets to overcome financial distress. Such firms are, therefore, expected to hold lower cash balances. Volatility of cash flows for a year (VOL) is measured as the standard deviation of quarterly cash flows in the previous two years and is scaled by the value of total assets less cash. A positive relationship is expected between cash flow volatility and cash holding Promoter holding (PH) is measured as the percentage of ordinary stock held by the promoters. Agency costs of managerial discretion are likely to be more for firms with a higher percentage of promoter holding. Such firms are expected to hold more cash than those with lower promoter holding. Asset tangibility (TANG) is measured as the ratio of tangible fixed assets to total assets. Since tangible assets can be sold by a firm facing cash shortage or pledged for raising debt, firms with higher asset tangibility are expected to hold less cash reserves. Cash conversion cycle (CCC) is measured as the average inventory period plus average receivables period minus average accounts payable period. A negative or positive relationship can be expected between the length of cash conversion cycle and the cash holding. Probability of financial distress (POFD): The inverse of a variation of Altman’s (1968) ZSCORE is used as a measure of the probability of financial distress (POFD), following Kim et al. (1998). The ZSCORE is computed as follows: 3.3 EBIT Sales Re tained Earnings MarketValue of Equity 1.0 1.4 0.6 Total Assets Total Assets Total Assets Book Value of Total Debt Proceedings of 34th International Business Research Conference 4 - 5 April 2016, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-925488-02-9 A measure of liquidity that is included in the original Altman’s (1968) ZSCORE is excluded from the above version because the analysis here is meant to explain determinants of liquidity. Kim et al.(1998) predict a negative relation between probability of financial distress and cash holdings arguing that firms facing financial distress are unlikely to hold high amounts of cash. An argument in favour of a positive relation between liquidity and probability of financial distress may also be justified on the reasoning that firms facing high probability of financial distress would accumulate cash to ward off financial distress. Industry: Sample firms are grouped into manufacturing and non-manufacturing firms. A dummy variable (IND) having value of 1 for manufacturing firms and 0 otherwise is used to differentiate their specific determinants of liquidity. A more detailed classification of firms in different industries is not made as the number of firms in each industry would have been very small. Manufacturing firms may have cash requirements that are different from non-manufacturing firms. Sector: Sample firms are divided into government owned and privately owned firms to control for sector-specific determinants of liquidity. A dummy variable (SEC) having a value of 1 for government owned firms and 0 otherwise is used. Government owned firms are expected to hold higher cash balances than privatelyowned firms due to greater managerial discretion and lower shareholder monitoring. To understand how the explanatory variables influence cash holdings, firm years are divided into quartiles on the basis of cash-to-assets ratio. As these quartiles are constructed every year, there is an overlap in the ranges of cash-to-assets ratio. Comparison of the variables between firms holding large cash balances ( firms falling in the fourth quartile) and firms holding small cash balances (firms falling in the first quartile) should reveal whether these firms differ from each other significantly in respect of characteristics described by these variables. Further, a panel regression is carried out where the dependent variable is the cashto-assets ratio and the explanatory variables and control variables used are those explained earlier. 4. The Findings Table 1: Cash Balances and Firm Characteristics Variable First quartile Second quartile Third quartile Fourth quartile t-statistic (p-value) Cash/assets 0.008 0.022 0.068 0.398 -31.31 (0.007) (0.022) (0.064) (0.247) (0.0000) 7.472 7.241 7.350 7.464 0.06 (7.391) (7.190) (7.250) (7.282) (0.9500) 1.94 2.18 2.76 4.54 -9.08 (1.53) (1.67) (2.04) (3.21) (0.0000) 0.013 0.010 0.010 0.008 3.91 (0.000) (0.001) (0.002) (0.001) (0.0002) 0.114 0.127 0.159 0.264 -16.05 (0.103) (0.108) (0.136) (0.213) (0.0000) Real Size Market-to-book ratio R&D/sales Cash flow/assets Proceedings of 34th International Business Research Conference 4 - 5 April 2016, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-925488-02-9 Net working 0.163 0.162 0.164 0.063 3.19 capital/assets (0.148) (0.158) (0.166) (0.088) (0.0000) Capital expenditure/assets 0.038 0.039 0.039 0.041 -1.19 (0.033) (0.034) (0.033) (0.035) (0.0022) Acquisitions/assets 0.005 0.006 0.006 0.005 0.00 (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.9999) 0.043 0.045 0.045 0.045 0.068 (0.035) (0.035) (0.034) (0.037) (0.4989) 0.289 0.270 0.221 0.167 5.08 (0.281) (0.271) (0.186) (0.043) (0.0000) 0.118 0.127 0.113 0.184 -3.67 (0.071) (0.076) (0.079) 0.108) (0.0005) 52.14 52.40 52.87 58.24 -9.22 (51.82) (52.49) (54.05) (60.58) (0.0000) 0.516 0.487 0.440 0.313 11.72 (0.530) (0.491) (0.441) (0.301) (0.0000) 101 92 68 65 3.09 (79) (69) (60) (46) (0.0029) 0.336 0.340 0.191 0.120 6.39 (0.273) (0.259) (0.148) (0.023) (0.0000) Payout to shareholders Total leverage Cash flow volatility Promoter holding Asset tangibility Cash conversion cycle Probability distress of financial The results of the univariate analysis are reported in Table1 Contrary to the observation by Opler, et al (1999) and Bigelli, et al (2012) that smaller firms hold larger cash balances, I find no significant difference in the firm size between the first and the fourth quartile of cash holding. The market-to-book ratio increases monotonically with cash holdings implying that firms with higher growth opportunities hold more cash, a result consistent with the pecking-order theory and findings of Opler et al (1998). Some other results that are consistent with the pecking-order theory are negative relation of cash holdings with R&D expenses and leverage and a positive relation of cash holdings with cash flows. Positive relation between capital expenditure and cash balances is inconsistent with the pecking order theory but consistent with the trade-off theory. Consistent with the trade-off theory, availability of cash substitutes induces firms to hold lower levels of cash as evidenced by the ratio of net working capital to assets (NWC). Firms with lower levels of NWC hold more cash. Asset tangibility is significantly negatively related with cash holdings. Firms with larger tangible assets hold less cash balances as tangible assets can serve as collateral to raise debt and therefore reducing the requirement of keeping larger cash reserves. As expected, there is a significant positive relation between cash flow volatility and cash holdings. Consistent with the agency theory, higher cash balances are associated with higher levels of promoter holding. Higher levels of cash conversion cycle are related to low levels of cash holdings implying that higher levels of Proceedings of 34th International Business Research Conference 4 - 5 April 2016, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-925488-02-9 inventories and receivables serve as good cash substitutes inducing firms to hold less cash. Probability of financial distress is negatively related to cash holdings implying that firms facing financial distress are unlikely to hold excess cash. The result supports the evidence in Kim, et al(1998). Contrary to the findings of Opler et al (1998), no significant association is observed between cash holdings and expenditure on acquisition and shareholder payout. Regression Tests Table 2 presents the estimated results of my panel regression model. Application of fixed effects redundancy tests and Hausman (1978) tests reveals that the panel data model with fixed period effects best fits the data. Therefore, the coefficients reported in Table 4 (model1) are from the panel data regression with fixed period effects. The direction of relationship of cash holdings with market-to-book ratio, cash flows, R&D expenses, net working capital, cash flow volatility and asset tangibility matches that under the univariate analysis. The important difference is with respect to leverage and pay out to shareholders. Table 2: Panel Regression Results Independent Variable Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Intercept 0.2637 (0.0238) 0.4233 (0.0109) -3.8036 (-0.0015) Market-to-book-ratio 0.0123 (0.0002) 0.0171 (0.0000) 0.0363 (0.0000) Size -0.0016 (0.8760) -0.0284 (0.0000) 0.0773 (0.0653) Leverage 0.2350 (0.0000) 0.2201 (0.0000) 0.9739 (0.0000) Cash flow 0.6254 (0.0000) 0.6153 (0.0000) 2.6577 (0.0000) Expenditure on R&D -0.0395 (0.8179) -0.0467 (0.7841) -3.523 (0.0039) Net working capital -0.4268 (0.0000) -0.4384 (0.0000) -0.9905 (0.0000) Expenditure on acquisitions 0.0109 (0.6641) 0.0174 (0.6673) 0.1728 (0.5481) Cash flow volatility 0.0476 (0.0183) 0.0432 (0.0000) -0.0034 (0.9602) Promoter holding 0.0000 (0.0001) 0.0000 (0.2730) -0.0000 (0.4636) Shareholder pay out -0.6594 (0.0020) -0.6629 (0.0000) -2.6265 (0.0000) Capital expenditure -0.3211 (0.1357) -0.3368 (0.0000) 0.3385 (0.1660) Asset tangibility -0.4617 (0.0000) -0.4348 (0.0000) -2.9395 (0.0000) Cash conversion cycle 0.0000 (0.2162) 0.0000 (0.7467) -0.0001 (0.2192) Proceedings of 34th International Business Research Conference 4 - 5 April 2016, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-925488-02-9 Probability of financial distress 0.0002 (0.9679) -0.0009 (0.8016) -0.0496 (0.0622) Industry dummy -0.0517 (0.2455) -0.3259 (0.8053) 0.0943 (0.9198) Sector dummy 0.0242 (0.0520) 0.0537 (0.6880) 0.0735 (0.4317) 0.802 0.805 0.67 Adjusted R 2 There is a positive and significant relation between cash holding and market-to-book ratio, as expected. This implies that firms having growth opportunities keep large cash balances to avoid foregoing profitable investment opportunities. Many previous studies also find a positive relation between cash reserves and growth opportunities. There is no significant relation between firm size and cash balances. The result is contrary to expectations but in line with the findings of some earlier studies by Ozkan and Ozkan, 2004; Garcia-Teruel and Martinez-Solano, 2008).Leverage has a significant positive association with cash holdings. The result is consistent with the arguement that high leverage firms may hold higher cash balances due to a higher probability of financial distress. Cash holdings have a significant positive relation with cash flows. The result is in line with the arguement that firms with higher cash flows hold more cash to avoid losing profitable investment opportunities. It also means that firms prefer to use internally generated funds compared to external funds as predicted by the pecking order theory. Several earlier studies also find a similar relation between cash holdings and cash flows. Consistent with the results of many previous studies, I find a significant negative relation of cash holdings with net working capital other than cash. Availability of liquid assets other than cash enables a firm to hold lower cash balances as these liquid assets can be easily converted into cash in case of need. In line with expectations, a significant positive relationship is observed between cash flow volatility and cash holding. Firms facing high cash flow uncertainty are expected to maintain high cash balances to avoid cutting dividends or to liquidate assets at a loss to generate the necessary cash. Consistent with the pecking order theory, payout to shareholders has a significant negative relation with cash balances. Asset tangibility has a significant negative relation with cash holdings. The result supports the findings of Drobetz and Gruninger (2007). Firms with more tangible assets are expected to hold lower cash balances as these assets can be liquidated in case of urgent needs. Government owned firms are expected to hold higher cash holdings compared to the private sector firms as evidenced by a significant positive relation between the sector dummy and cash holdings. The finding is in line with expectations. The regression results do not show any significant relation between cash holdings and capital expenditure, expenditure on R&D, expenditure on acquisition, promoter Proceedings of 34th International Business Research Conference 4 - 5 April 2016, Imperial College, London, UK, ISBN: 978-1-925488-02-9 holding, cash conversion cycle, probability of financial distress and industry classification. Regression estimates based on two more models are presented in Table 2. Model 2 and model 3 are also panel data regression models with fixed period effects. Model 2 uses the market value of a firm’s assets as proxy for the size explanatory variable. Model 3 uses the natural logarithm of the cash-to-assets ratio as the dependent variable. Regression estimates of model 2 are similar to that of model 1 except that in model 2, the firm size is negatively related with cash holding in a statistical significant manner and the coefficient of the probability of financial distress has a negative sign. Model 3 also relates cash holding with the firm size but in a positive direction. The relation between cash holding and the firm size is, therefore ambiguous. Coefficients for cash flow volatility, promoter holding, capital expenditure, cash conversion cycle and industry dummy in model 3 have exactly opposite signs of those under model 1 and are also statistically not significant. Similar to model 2, the coefficient of probability of financial distress has a negative sign and is statistically significant. In sum, cash balances of the sample Indian companies have a strong positive relation with growth opportunities, cash flows, leverage, cash flow volatility and a strong negative relation with liquid assets, capital expenditure, expenditure on R&D, shareholder payout and asset tangibility. Positive association of cash balances with growth opportunities is consistent with the trade-off theory and the pecking order theory. With the fixed effects models 1 and 2, the coefficients of cash flows, expenditure on R&D, shareholder payout, capital expenditure are consistent with the pecking order theory and the coefficients of leverage, liquid assets, cash flow volatility, asset tangibility are consistent with the trade-off theory. 5. Summary and Conclusions The static trade-off as well as the financing hierarchy model seems to explain the pattern of cash holdings of Indian companies for the period 2005-2015. Firms that hold large amounts of cash have higher market-to-book ratios (strong growth opportunities), larger cash flows, higher leverage and higher cash flow volatility. Firms that have higher levels of liquid assets, higher amounts of tangible assets, higher capital expenditure, higher R&D expenditure, and higher shareholder payout have relatively lower levels of cash holdings. There is no clear relationship between the size of the firm and the amount of cash holding. The results of the study have important implications for investors and corporate managers in emerging countries. It is important to understand the firm characteristics that are associated with the holding of cash by companies in emerging countries as these characteristics may be different from those of firms in developed economies. 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