Proceedings of 13th Asian Business Research Conference
26 - 27 December, 2015, BIAM Foundation, Dhaka, Bangladesh, ISBN: 978-1-922069-93-1
Establishing a Forecasting Model for Jute Bales in the
Context of Bangladesh: A Case Study on Sharif Jute Mills
Limited
Muhammad Al-Amin Uddin Bhuiyan1 and Sultanul Nahian Hasnat2
The applied research emphasizes on preparing a forecasting model for the demand of
jute bales to justify the use of modern forecasting concepts considering the
circumstances of Bangladesh; aiming that the study collected 54 months data from Sharif
Jute Mills Limited to analyze the data pattern of jute bale requirements for yarn
production purpose. During meticulous revise the research identified and classified the
data with stationary pattern comprising minimal presence of seasonality using regression
analysis and graphical system. Following to the classification the study prepares
forecasting system for upcoming periods using Simple Exponential Smoothing Model.
The study justifies the accuracy level of the model using two different methods – MAD,
MSE, MAPE calculation and Control Chart with satisfactory results. The paper identifies
the sectors that can use the forecast to enhance the management system. This research
divulge a set of recommendations for Sharif Jute Mills Limited as well as for the similar
organizations who are working in this space to perform smoothly and improve the
adeptness level of the procurement system to remain competitive in the world market of
jute products.
1
Muhammad Al-Amin Uddin Bhuiyan, Alumni, Faculty of Business Administration, American International
University-Bangladesh (AIUB). Email - alaminuddin65@gmail.com
2
Sultanul Nahian Hasnat, Assistant Professor, Operations Management Department, Faculty of Business
Administration, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB). Email - hasnat1983@gmail.com