Proceedings of 4th Global Business and Finance Research Conference
25 - 27 May 2015, Marriott Hotel, Melbourne, Australia
ISBN: 978-1-922069-76-4
Macroeconomic Shocks and the Central Government Debt:
The Philippine Case
Jean Christine A. Armas
The Philippine debt profile does not only speak about the country’s fiscal position. It is also
indicative of the country’s vulnerability to different macroeconomic shocks. Using quarterly
time series data from 1996 to 2014, this paper investigates the impact of fiscal, real and
financial shocks to central government debt-to-GDP ratio. This paper finds out that the
central government debt become most susceptible to government expenditures (fiscal),
inflation (real), and real effective exchange rate (financial) shocks. This paper also
discusses the implications of the results to fiscal, monetary & financial policy, and debt
management policy.
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Jean Christine A. Armas, Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) and University of the Philippines
School of Economics (UPSE), Philippines, E-mail: jeanchristinearmas@yahoo.com.