The Political Economy of Urban
Transport Decarbonisation in
Australia
Jago Dodson
Outline of Presentation
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Background to the decarbonisation question
The Australian urban transport context
Australian climate policy
Current decarbonisation efforts
Future prospects
Carbon Transport Context
Unger et al (2010)
Australian Transport Context
Newman and Kenworthy 1999
Selected Australian Transport Statistics
City
Sydney
Population* (2013, million)
Work
trips
(Census
day)§
(2013)
Mode share all trips by private
motor vehicle (per cent)
4.76
Melbourne
4.35
Brisbane
Perth
Adelaide
2.24
1.97
1.29
1,772,780
1,642,078
1,642,078
722,761
484,728
70.0∞
75.4^
79.0
n/a
81.8≈
86.0
89.0
91.8
92.5
94.1
14.0
11.0
8.3
7.5
5.9
1,200,502
1,249,345
649,144
573,528
399,489
67.7
76.1
76.0
79.4
82.4
Proportion of motorised travel
task,
private
passenger
vehicles#, (vehicle kilometres
travelled, per cent)+#
Proportion of motorised travel
task, public transport, (vehicle
kilometres travelled, per cent)
Journey to Work by car (total
trips)§
Journey to Work by car trips
(mode share, per cent) §
Greenhouse Emissions in Australia
DOE 2014
Emissions and Transport in Australia
• Transport produces 17 per cent of Australia’s
total greenhouse gas emissions
• Private cars produce 47 per cent of Australia’s
transport greenhouse emissions
• Private cars thus produce 8 per cent of
Australia’s total greenhouse emissions
Urban Structure and Transport
• Australia is a ‘suburban nation’
• Around 54 per cent of the Australian
population lives in the middle or outer suburbs
of Australia’s major cities.
Urban Structure and Transport
Automotive emissions
Total emissions
Lenzen et al 2004
‘VIPER’ - Sydney
High vulnerability in:
•Low socio-economic status area
•Western/outer areas
•Areas with poor PT
Low vulnerability in:
•Inner areas
•Higher SE status areas
•Better PT services
‘VIPER’ - Melbourne
High vulnerability in:
•Low socio-economic status areas
•Outer areas
•Areas with poor PT
Low vulnerability in:
•Inner areas
•Higher SE status areas
•Better PT services
Australian Climate Change Policy
- National context
Australia’s Climate Target
• 5 per cent reduction from 2000 levels by 2020
Australian Climate Policy
• 1980s - early 1990s:
– Initial concern and interest in climate change
– ‘Naïve altruism’
• mid-late 1990s
– ‘rationalist economics’
– ‘fossil fuel pragmatism’
• Early-2000s
– Reluctant recognition
Australian Climate Policy
• 2007-2013
– Cautious global participation
– Signing of Kyoto
– Clean energy future policy
• 2012
– Carbon pricing scheme introduced
– Renewable energy targets
• 2014-2015
– Abolition of carbon pricing
– ‘Direct action’
– Reduction of renewable energy targets
Transport policy
• Federal policy
– Since 2013 Federal government to fund roads only
– Fuel excise indexation
– No federal energy efficiency standards for
transport
• State Policy
– Demand driven transport investment
– ‘Balanced’ policy – no modal preference
Australian Fuel Tax
DIS 2015
Australian vehicle fleet efficiency
NTC 2014
Fuel economy
• 1963 – 11.4 L/100km
• 1990 - 12.3 L/100km
• 2011 – 11.1 L/100km
Possible Vehicle Emissions Scheme
CCA 2015
Demand driven change?
Conclusions
• Australia one of world’s worst carbon emitters
• Australia a carbon policy recalcitrant
• Transport not seriously part of climate policy
• Questions of risk and vulnerability?