Research Journal of Environmental and Earth Sciences 4(11): 996-1001, 2012
ISSN: 2041-0492
© Maxwell Scientific Organization, 2012
Submitted: September 17, 2012
Accepted: October 03, 2012
Published: November 20, 2012
Role of Pakistan in Global Climate Change through Greenhouse Gas
Emissions (GHGs)
1
Wajeeha Malik, 1Hajra Shahid, 2Rabeea Zafar, 3Zaheer Uddin , 4Zafar Wazir, 5Zubair Anwar,
5
Jabar Zaman Khan Khattak and 6Syed Shahid Ali
1
Department of Earth and Environmental Science, Bahria University, Islamabad,
2
Higher Education Commission, H-8 Islamabad,
3
PCSIR Complex, Quetta, Pakistan
4
Department of Physics,
5
Department of Bioinformatics and Biotechnology,
6
HEC, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan
Abstract: The increasing concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) is warming the earth’s atmosphere and the
phenomenon is known as Climate Change or Global Warming. The major factors contributing to the global climate
change include polluted emissions by excessive burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Pakistan contributes very
little to the overall Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions however it remains severely impacted by the negative effects
of climate change. Pakistan, in particular is estimated to have raised carbon emissions from 76 million tons in 1990
to 200 million tons in 2006. It is estimated that CO2 emissions with an average increase of 6.5% annually will grow
to 482 million tons by 2020. The transport sector is a significant contributor to GHG emissions with an estimated
15million tons in 1990. With a proportionate increase in GHG emissions with the 100% increase in motor vehicles,
the sector will be responsible for the emission of 30 million ton CO2 by 2020. According to data reviewed, the total
petroleum consumption of Pakistan was 383 thousand barrels per day in 2008. Natural gas consumption was 1,088
billion cubic feet in 2007. Coal consumption reached 8.583 million short tons in 2007. In 2006, the total Carbon
dioxide emissions from consumption of fossil fuels reached 125.59 million metric tons (EIA). Glacier melt in the
Himalayas is projected to increase flooding and will affect water resources within the next two to three decades.
Freshwater availability is also projected to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss. Besides that, coastal areas
bordering the Arabian Sea in the south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to inland intrusion and increased
flooding from the sea. Being a predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is estimated to decrease crop
yields in Pakistan. The endemic morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily associated with floods and
droughts are expected to rise. The impact of climate change will also aggravate the existing social inequalities of
resource use and intensify social factors leading to instability, conflicts, displacement of people and changes in
migration patterns.
Keywords: Fossil fuel, gaseous emissions, global climate change, Greenhouse gases (GHGs), rising temperature
burning of fossil fuels in automobiles and industries,
destruction of forests for urbanization, usage of
chemical sprays and development of new technology. It
is tempting to subscribe to popular rhetoric that
Northern depredations, as manifested by its
untrammeled emissions, will irrevocably harm
Pakistan. Pakistan contributes very little to the overall
Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions however it remains
severely impacted by the negative effects of climate
change. The objective of this study is to investigate the
major impacts of climate change on Pakistan
(Ledley et al., 1999).
INTRODUCTION
Planet Earth, a combination of plains, heavy thick
forests and lush green valley’s canopied by crystal blue
sky is carelessly being polluted and degraded by human
activities. The increasing concentration of Greenhouse
Gases (GHGs) is warming the earth’s atmosphere and
the phenomenon is known as Climate Change or Global
Warming (Ledley et al., 1999). It is among the most
pervasive threats to the web of life. It impacts the
dynamics, functioning and structure of ecosystems,
reduces their productivity, has negative impacts on the
species, their habitats and also adversely effects water
availability, food security, human health and well
being. The major factors contributing to the global
climate change include polluted emissions by excessive
Energy demands and emission forecasts: Pakistan, in
particular is estimated to have raised carbon emissions
from 76 million tons in 1990 to 200 million tons in
Corresponding Author: Syed Shahid Ali, HEC, International Islamic University, Islamabad, Pakistan
996
Res. J. Environ. Earth Sci., 4(11): 996-1001, 2012
2006 (IPCC, 2001). It is estimated that CO2 emissions
with an average increase of 6.5% annually will grow to
482 million tons by 2020 (Ledley et al., 1999). The
transport sector is a significant contributor to GHG
emissions with an estimated 15 million tons in 1990s
and It has been estimated that with a proportionate
100% increase in GHG emissions with the 100%
increase in motor vehicles, the sector will be
responsible for the emission of 30 million ton CO2 by
2020 (IPCC, 2001). According to data reviewed, the
total petroleum consumption of Pakistan was 383
thousand barrels per day in 2008. Natural gas
consumption was 1,088 billion cubic feet in 2007. Coal
consumption reached 8.583 million short tons in 2007.
In 2006, the total Carbon dioxide emissions from
consumption of fossil fuels reached 125.59 million
metric tons (Haque et al., 2008).
Causes of climate change: There are natural as well as
anthropogenic factors contributing to the climate
change. The natural factors include plate tectonics,
solar outputs, orbital variations, volcanism and ocean
variability (Ledley et al., 1999; IPCC, 2001). However,
the human influences are more drastic and dramatic.
They are listed as follows:






Increase in CO2 levels due to emissions from fossil
fuel combustion
Aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere)
emissions from various sources
Cement manufacturing processes and land use
Ozone depletion
Animal agriculture
Deforestation
Impacts of climate change on Pakistan: The impacts
on Pakistan are drastic then as compared to the role it
plays in causing the climate change. Firstly, glacier
melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding
and will affect water resources within the next two to
three decades. Freshwater availability is also projected
to decrease which will lead to biodiversity loss. Beside
that, coastal areas bordering the Arabian Sea in the
south of Pakistan will be at greatest risk due to inland
intrusion and increased flooding from the sea. Being a
predominantly agriculture economy, climate change is
estimated to decrease crop yields in Pakistan (IPCC,
2001; UNDP and ENERCON, 1990). The endemic
morbidity and mortality due to diseases primarily
associated with floods and droughts are expected to
rise. The impact of climate change has also aggravated
the existing social inequalities of resource use and
intensifies social factors leading to instability, conflicts,
displacement of people and changes in migration
patterns. Some of the critical impacts are discussed as
below:
Displacement of communities: Land erosion and soil
degradation caused by deforestation has displaced many
rural communities in the Northern Areas of Pakistan
and adjoining countries (UNDP and ENERCON, 1990).
Land use change due to non-availability of land for
housing and agriculture to support life are further
causing huge impact on the displacement of
communities. Furthermore, more frequent and torrential
rains are a possible outcome of climate change that
results in loss of land through erosion and landslides.
Disruption of communications and energy loss:
Landslides in the Northern Areas, Azad Kashmir and
the
Murree
Hill
tracts
frequently
disrupt
communications. In addition, landslides and erosion
continue to result in siltation of reservoirs and hence,
reduces hydropower generation capacity. The shortfall
of energy generation continues to widen and has been
estimated to further create a wide gap in the demand
and supply of hydropower (Haque et al., 2008).
Loss of agricultural land: The loss of forest cover in
the river rain areas has created flooding problems and,
through soil erosion, reduced agricultural potential.
Growing demand for fuel wood and continuing land use
changes, thanks to population increase, will make the
river rain areas even more vulnerable to the increased
frequency of flooding (UNDP and ENERCON, 1990;
Ehleringer et al., 1991)
Damage to coastal infrastructure and marine
habitat: The clearing of mangroves in the coastal areas
has resulted in sea encroachment and in loss of habitat
for many marine species which are source of livelihood
for coastal communities. If unchecked, the loss of this
natural barrier could expose coastal infrastructure to the
increased frequency of storm flooding. Sea level rise
could further damage marine habitats (UNDP and
ENERCON, 1990; Ehleringer et al., 1991).
Health effects due to natural calamities: Climate
change due to anthropogenic activities and GHG
emissions has played havoc with health and
environment especially in developing countries, in
addition to natural calamities through droughts, floods
and rains (McMichael et al., 2006). Various climatic
997 Res. J.
J Environ. Earrth Sci., 4(11): 996-1001, 20112
factors inffluence shiftin
ng in rain patttern, agricultuural
cropping tiime, monthly temperature
t
chhange, shifting of
seasons eiither earlier orr later and seeasonal monsooon
rain patterrn in Southeasst Asia. It hass resulted in the
t
emergencee and reemergeence of infectioous diseases, i..e.,
malaria, deengue, viral inffections etc. (P
Patz et al., 1996).
Beside thaat multiple hum
man, biologicaal and ecologiccal
health andd environmentaal issues erupt more often thhan
developed world. Youn
nger and infannt population is
more vulnnerable to infeectious seasonnal diseases thhan
adult popuulation, howeveer, malnutrition, lack of acceess
to healthcaare system aggravates the situuation to becom
me
epidemic. Therefore, an
n inter-disciplinnary cooperatiion
among scientists with an
n approach thrrough combiniing
social, phyysical and eco
ological perspeective is needeed.
Situation further
fu
necessittates monitorinng geographicaally
segregatedd and depriveed marginal populations
p
a
and
taking meaasures to mitig
gate their basiic needs throuugh
infrastructuure developm
ment and heallth security (Paatz
et al., 19966).
FECTS OF CL
LIMATE CHA
ANGE ON
EFF
PLA
ANNING AND
D MANGING
G WATER
RE
ESERVIORS IN THE POT
TOHAR
REGION OF PAKISTA
AN
Sixty-seven percen
nt of world’’s glaciers are
a
retreating at
a a startling raate in the Him
malayas and the
t
major causal factor has been iddentified as climate
c
changee (Ageta and Kadota, 1992)). Glacial mellt will
affect freshwater
f
flow
ws with dramattic adverse effeects on
biodiveersity and liveelihood, with possible longg-term
implicaations on regioonal food secuurity. Accordinng to a
1999 reeport of Internnational Comm
mission for Snoow and
Ice, “G
Glaciers in Him
malayas are recceding faster thhan in
any othher part of the world. The obbjective of thiss study
was too assess the affects
a
of clim
mate change on
o the
availabble water resoources in the Potohar Regiion of
Pakistaan and to asseess the climatee change variability
impactss on the micrro managemennt of surface water
sourcess being used by
b Water andd Sanitation Agency
A
Rawalppindi (WASA)--Pakistan (Haqque et al., 20088).
Acccording to thee recent studyy carried out by
b the
met department,
d
thhere has been a considderable
temperature variationn all over the country
c
especiaally in
the Noorthern Punjab and Potohar region as shoown in
Fig. 1.. It has beenn resulting in creating favvorable
conditions for the exttreme weatherr patterns throuughout
the woorld (Esterlingg, 1996) and in Pakistan (H
Haque
et al., 2008),
2
as well.
There is an appreciaable variation in the precipitation
pattern has occurred throughout Pakistan (Fig. 2)
2 and
has advversely impacted the Potoharr region of Paakistan
(Fig. 3)), which is solely dependds on rain wateer for
agriculttural and drinking
d
purpooses (Haque et al.,
2008).
Fig. 1: Annuual mean temperrature change in Pakistan; Pakisttan Metrologicall department, Isllamabad
998 Res. J.
J Environ. Earrth Sci., 4(11): 996-1001, 20112
Fig. 2: Channge in precipitatiion variation in Pakistan
P
(%); Paakistan Metrologgical departmentt, Islamabad
Water depthh 1960
Water depthh 2005
2500
Depth in ft
2000
1500
1000
500
r
Mu
lpu
hok
e
Al
bu
Ba
te l
ie t
ow
iD
nN
nN
o1
Sat
Sa
tte l
ie t
ow
lM
wa
Ga
L
Location
of tube weell
Fig. 4: G
Groundwater deepletion in Rawaalpindi area; Waater and
S
Sanitation
Agenncy (WASA), Raawalpindi-Pakistan
effects (Reilly et al., 1999; FAO, 2005). Both macro
and miicro management of water sources
s
is becoming
difficullt both qualitattively and quanntitatively withh high
cost. Pakistan's vulneerability to thee impacts of climate
c
changee guides its ovverall national response in dealing
d
with the issue.
999 and
i
agh
Lia
qat
B
The decline in precipitation has triggerred
nd water, thuss depletion. Ovver
extraction of undergroun
the period of time, consiiderable grounndwater depletiion
hich is primarrily due to leess
has been observed wh
recharge. Approximatelly 7-10ft/yearr ground waater
a
depletion has been observed (Fig. 4)) (Haque et al.,
gravated to a level
l
that capiital
2008). Situuation has agg
territory of
o Islamabad is becomingg dependent on
undergrounnd water sou
urce instead of rain waater
collected inn adjacent reseervoirs.
High levels of baccterial contam
mination in booth
surface andd ground waterr, increased turrbidity, increassed
flooding annd effects on glaciers
g
are som
me of the majjor
o2
0
Fig. 3: Channge in precipitattion pattern in Isslamabad and
Murrree; Pakistan Metrological department,
Islam
mabad
Res. J. Environ. Earth Sci., 4(11): 996-1001, 2012
APPROACHES TO CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION

Legal and institutional elements- decision making,
institutional mechanisms, legislation, implementing
human right norms, tenure and ownership,
regulatory tools, legal principals, governance,
resource allocation.
Policy and planning elements-risk assessment and
monitoring, analysis, strategy formulation, sectoral
measures.
Livelihood elements- food security, hunger,
poverty, non-discriminatory access.
Cropping, livestock, forestry, fisheries and
integrated farming system elements- food crops,
cash crops, growing season, crop suitability,
livestock fodder, water management, land use
planning, soil fertility, soil organisms.
Ecosystem elements- species composition,
biodiversity, resilience, ecosystem goods and
services.
Linking climate change adaptation processes and
technologies for promoting carbon sequestration,
substitution of fossil fuels, promoting use of bio
energy.
Two main types of adaptation are autonomous and
planned adaptation: Autonomous adaptation is the
reaction of, for example, a farmer to changing

precipitation patterns, in the changes crops or uses
different harvest and planting/sowing dates (FAO,
2005). Planned adaptation measures are the conscious

policy options or response strategies, often
multisectoral in nature, aimed at altering the adaptive

capacity of the agriculture system or facilitating
specific adaptations. For example, deliberate crops
selection and distribution strategies across different
agriclimatic zones, substitution of new crops for old
ones and resource substitution induced by scarcity

(FAO, 2005).
Long term adaptations are major structural changes
to overcome adversity such as changes in land use to

maximize yield under new conditions; application of
new technologies; new land management techniques;
and water use efficiency related techniques. Reilly et al.
(1999) defined the following “major classes of
adaptation” based on agriculture and its irrigation
MITIGATION MEASURES
system, i.e., seasonal changes and sowing dates of
crops; different variety or species with new crop
A variety of technologies for pollution controls are
varieties; water supply and irrigation system; other
readily
available, classified as mechanical, electroinputs (fertilizer, tillage methods, grain drying and
mechanical and chemical process equipment. The
other field operations); forest fire management,
emission measurements and education equipment
promotion of agroforestry, adaptive management with
include ammonium continuous emission monitors,
suitable species and silvicultural practices (Reilly et al.,
portable multi-pollutant emission analyzers and
1999). It further included the types of responses
controllers, NOx (Nitrogen Oxides) and VOC (Volatile
required to: reducte food security risk; Identification of
Organic Compounds) emission controls, Sulphur
present vulnerabilities; adjustment of research
dioxide & Mercury control technologies, carbon
priorities; protection of genetic resources and
intellectual property rights; Strengthening of
capture and sequestration (process for removing
agricultural extension and communication systems;
carbon) equipment and recycling systems for waste and
adjustments in commodity and trade policy; prioritizing
water (Stern, 2007).
education and training; promotion of micro- climatic
benefits and environmental services of trees and forests
CONCLUSION
(FAO, 2005; Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994).
Climatic change and variability are among the most
Although Pakistan is not expected to be a major
important challenges to developing countries because of
player in global warming, however its energy based
their strong economic reliance on natural resources and
emissions are a major source of pollution and GHGs
rain fed agriculture (Reilly et al., 1999; FAO, 2005;
production. The main focus should be on the measures
Rosenzweig and Parry, 1994). In Pakistan, people
which can be taken to cope with the climate change.
living in marginal areas such as dry lands or
There should be increased excess to information
Baluchistan face additional challenges with limited
concerning this global issue. The technological
management options to reduce impacts (Haque et al.,
responses should be improved along with energy
2008). In view of the above, a framework for climate
efficiency practices by changes in lifestyles and
change adaptation needs to be directed simultaneously
businesses. Alternate energy sources, i.e., wind & solar,
along several interrelated lines:
should adopted along with developing an innovative
1000 Res. J. Environ. Earth Sci., 4(11): 996-1001, 2012
and environment friendly agriculture practices for
biodiversity conservation (Stern, 2007; Metz, 2007). On
the other hand, Pakistan is vulnerable to the
consequences of climate change & our thoughts and
awareness shape the world. Anger, fear, separation and
greed are the thoughts that hold sway in our modern
world, this is what allows us to exploit the natural
world with no thought for the future, this is what allows
us to oppress and exploit other people through our
lifestyle. On the other hand thoughts of peace, love and
unity with accepting responsibility to future generations
are those that will lead us to a world that is
environmentally sustainable, spiritually fulfilling and
socially just.
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