1400, 17 September 2009, University of Warwick
Room MS.03, Zeeman Building (Maths and Statistics), central campus
(coffee available in the main atrium from about 1320)
Welcome
Apologies: Trevor Bailey, Lothar Breuer, William Deans, Peter Diggle, Carl
Donovan, David Elston, Robin Henderson, Gilbert MacKenzie, Brendan Murphy,
Julian Stander.
1. Minutes of second meeting (11 September 2008)
2. Matters arising
3. Report on APTS 2008–2009
4. Programme for APTS 2009–2010
5. Long-term future of APTS (discussion)
(1) Paper setting out plan for continuation of APTS.
(2) Discussion document tabled at APTS Executive Committee, January
2009.
6. Election of AC representative to Executive Committee
To replace Robin Henderson (Newcastle)
Robin. Henderson@ newcastle.
ac. uk
, who may choose to stand again.
7. Any other business and general feedback
1

Member Institutions
In 2008–9, APTS had 24 Member Institutions (21 in UK, 3 in Ireland). Of those, 23 have renewed Member Institution status for 2009–10; one new (Irish)
Member Institution has been added in the Summer 2009 registration period.
APTS weeks, academic year 2008–9
Week 1, December 2008, Warwick:
• Statistical Computing (S N Wood)
• Statistical Inference (D R Cox and D Firth)
• Evening sessions:
– RSS Reception
–
How Not to Give a Presentation
–
Writing a PhD thesis
Week 2, April 2009, Southampton:
• Statistical Modelling (A C Davison and J J Forster)
• Statistical Asymptotics (G A Young)
• Evening sessions:
–
RSS Reception
–
Question time with 5 recent Statistics PhDs in a range of employment
(academia, government, pharma, engineering and finance)
Week 3, June–July 2009, Bath:
• Applied Stochastic Processes (S B Connor and W S Kendall)
• Computer Intensive Statistics (B D Ripley)
• Evening sessions:
–
RSS Reception including talk on history of RSS
Week 4, August–September 2009, Glasgow:
• Spatial and Longitudinal Data Analysis (P J Diggle)
• Nonparametric Smoothing (A Delaigle)
• Evening sessions:
– RSS Reception
2

–
Interview of the two lecturers, covering their careers, influences, and advice for young statisticians
Registrations
All four APTS weeks were over-subscribed at the close of registration in October
2008. The target (maximum) number for each APTS week in 2008–2009 was 60 students.
Applications were received for 107 students. For the four individual APTS weeks the respective numbers applying were 84, 78, 82 and 71. The numbers accepted were 69, 65, 69 and 62.
Students applying to take part in all four APTS weeks numbered 54, of whom
41 actually attended all 4 weeks (compared with 33 in 2007–8).
Of the 107 applications, 85 were for first-year students in statistics or probability; of those 85, 34 were EPSRC-funded. APTS Member Institutions made 82 of the 107 applications, and 98 came from within the UK.
Unsuccessful applications were held on an ordered reserve list, to be offered a place in the event of a cancellation.
Student feedback
The following summarizes student responses to an anonymous questionnaire completed at the end of each training week. The numbers here relate to APTS weeks 1–3.
A. Preparation for APTS
1. Did you find the APTS web site useful?
Yes No Didn’t use
Week 1 50
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
49
34
34
0
0
0
0
2
1
1
2
2. Was it clear exactly what was expected of you in the weeks leading up to this APTS week? (e.g., making travel arrangements, looking at preliminary material, registering your meal choice, etc.)
Week 1 49
Week 2
Week 3
Week 4
Yes No
50
34
34
0
0
2
0
3

4. Did the preliminary material help you to understand the lectures this week?
Statistical Computing
Statistical Inference
Statistical Modelling
Statistical Asymptotics
Computer Intensive
Stochastic Processes
Nonparametric Smoothing 22
Spatial and Longitudinal
34
21
42
30
27
35
Yes No Didn’t use
45 4
7
1
3
0
1
2
4
13
13
12
11
0
0
0
0
B. The APTS week: material covered
1. How would you rate the level of the module lectures?
Statistical Computing
Statistical Inference
Statistical Modelling
Statistical Asymptotics
Computer Intensive
Stochastic Processes
Nonparametric Smoothing
Spatial and Longitudinal
2. Did you find the computer sessions helpful?
1
8
0
0
5
6
0
Too easy Just right Too hard
1 43
37
34
24
39
36
27
26
4
10
1
10
8
9
1
11
Statistical Computing
Statistical Modelling
Computer Intensive
Yes No Didn’t attend
43
33
46
Nonparametric Smoothing 28
3
1
1
1
8
1
1
4
3. Did you enjoy the evening session(s)? (no evening session on Week 3)
Yes No Didn’t attend
Week 1 43
Week 2
Week 4
19
15
1
2
1
8
14
20
Student costs
The following table summarizes, in aggregate form (
£
), the invoices received by
APTS sending institutions for the four APTS weeks in 2008–9:
Warwick
Southampton
Bath
Glasgow
TOTAL
Registration Accommodation EPSRC rebate EPSRC travel fees
4256
3976
4606
3766
16604 and food
16470
17520
16120
14760
64870
(accom/food)
− 6360
− 6940
− 6540
− 6080
− 25920 allowance
− 1272
− 1954
− 1888
− 2313
− 7427
4

3. Roughly, how many days did you spend on the preliminary material?
Histogram of the number of days spent on the preliminary material of
Statistical Computing
Histogram of the number of days spent on the preliminary material of
Statistical Inference
0 2 4 6 8
Number of days
10 12 14 16
Histogram of the number of days spent on the preliminary material of
Statistical Asymptotics
0 2 4 6 8
Number of days
10 12 14 16
Histogram of the number of days spent on the preliminary material of
Statistical Modelling
0 2 4 6 8
Number of days
10 12 14 16
Histogram of the number of days spent on the preliminary material of
Applied Stochastic Processes
0 2 4 6 8
Number of days
10 12 14 16
Histogram of the number of days spent on the preliminary material of
Computer Intensive Statistics
0 2 4 6 8
Number of days
10 12 14 16
Histogram of the number of days spent on the preliminary material of
Nonparametric Smoothing
0 2 4 6 8
Number of days
10 12 14 16
Histogram of the number of days spent on the preliminary material of
Spatial and Longitudinal Data Analysis
0 2 4 6 8
Number of days
10 12 14 16
5
0 2 4 6 8
Number of days
10 12 14 16

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5 b a t t k S P A F ( i f A ) d M i d h i k f t t t " k S P A f d M h t " d d W d r p s e e w r u o r e y o a n o g r o n e c e r p e s n a e m e e w o y a n o e y a s e n e r o y a s e u n o g n r a s e e w n a r o
, .
T T T d f l l d k S P A i h l h k S P A t t t t t e r a e e w a o n u e r g n a e r s e g r a c e e w n a y a m r o n o n e
.
,
T T i t f t d h ' t d t h t f t t C i d A S P A h t b ( t b d l h i t l l t d t h t b O t i b ) d l e u s e y n e m m e y e r a p e e m o s n e u s e r o c n r e c n o c n a a n o c m e a c e y n e s e u o s n o a e c n a c y n a o e c o
,
T N N T d d i d k t t t t t s p a a n m a o u o c a o
.
F d i P h i t t t c a n o c e g a r v a :
D d i 9 0 0 2 S 3 h t e r s a p e u : e s v
T L

• APTS module weeks 2009-2010:
–
Cambridge
Runs from Monday, 4th January to Friday, 8th January 2010.
Statistical Computing (S N Wood)
Statistical Inference (D Firth)
–
Nottingham
Runs from Monday, 19th April to Friday, 23rd April 2010.
Statistical Modelling (J J Forster)
Statistical Asymptotics (G A Young)
–
Bristol
Runs from Monday, 5th July to Friday, 9th July 2010.
Applied Stochastic Processes (S B Connor and W S Kendall)
Computer Intensive Statistics (B D Ripley)
–
Lancaster
Runs from Monday, 6th September to Friday, 10th September 2010.
Spatial and Longitudinal Data Analysis (P J Diggle)
Nonparametric Smoothing (R J Samworth)
• Key dates:
–
Mon, 21st September, 2009
Student registration for 2009-10 opens.
Closes at noon on 23 Oct 2009
Registration at go.warwick.ac.uk/apts/register/student
(password required for completion)
Students can only be registered for APTS weeks by their “sending institution” (i.e., their home department): all Member Institutions are automatically “sending institutions”; others register at go.warwick.ac.uk/apts/register/si
.
–
Billing and cancellation policy at go.warwick.ac.uk/apts/register/ billing-cancellation
.
• registration fee levels (set at EC January 2009):
£
100, 20% rebate in case of each student attending all four weeks.
• A preview of 2010–2011 dates:
– Cambridge: 3-7 January 2011
– Warwick: 21-25 March 2011
–
Southampton: 11-15 July 2011
–
Lancaster: 5-9 September 2011
• Oxford University Statistics Department will continue their course introducing R , which will again be available in web-lecture form to APTS students.
8

APTS has been funded by EPSRC for a five-year period ending September 2011. The first year
(2007-2008) was devoted to planning and preparation; 2008-2009 was the first year of APTS training; we have now completed the second year; and there are two more years to come.
The EPSRC grant has supplied: funds for secretarial support and for a fraction of a post at PDRA level to manage the daily operation of APTS; various travel and IT expenses for the co-investigators on the grant; funds to support preparation (but not delivery) of the 8 APTS modules; and support for travel, accommodation and subsistence of module leaders and EPSRC-supported PhD students attending APTS weeks. Support for EPSRC-funded PhD students of course makes up the major part of the grant. Very approximately, around half of the 60-70 students attending each APTS week are thus funded by EPSRC. The non-EPSRC-funded students are wholly supported by the departments sending them to APTS; cost to departments of EPSRC-funded students is currently restricted to the registration fee for each week.
Some other support for APTS is supplied in kind by Warwick Statistics department, who make a nominal 5% of professorial time available for direction of APTS (currently shared between Profs
Firth and Kendall).
The very warm and kind response to the APTS initiative has included very positive reactions to the possibility of continuing APTS beyond the initial five-year funding period; not only is the actual teaching appreciated, but the networking benefits are valued very highly. Each APTS year forms a national cohort of statistics researchers many of whom may be expected to continue professional relationships for 40 years or more.
In this paper we set out a possible plan for continuing APTS, based on feedback from the APTS advisory committee and discussion both face-to-face and by email with the APTS executive committee. This builds on the current structure of (i) Executive Committee, (ii) Advisory
Committee largely made up of delegates from Member Institutions (who by registering as such commit to a basic level of usage of APTS for their Statistics PhD student populations), and (iii)
Sending Institutions (who apply to send their students to APTS weeks).
Experience has shown that the crucial elements of APTS are exactly what might be expected: (1) strong central coordination of the APTS weeks, including centralized registration and quality control; (2) committed participation by module leaders; and (3) willingness of module week organizers to take on the task of running APTS weeks. Of these, (3) is crucial for continuation plans; we need to ensure that the task of organization of APTS weeks is not hindered by lack of resources. Practically speaking, one needs to establish the programme of 4 APTS weeks about 2.5 years ahead; thus we have already (in summer of 2009) secured agreement by organizers to host all four APTS weeks for 2010-2011. In order to do this we need to pay deposits considerably in advance; often as much as 12 months in advance. Thus a key component of any continuation planning is to arrange for underwriting of such deposits.
For this reason, we propose to establish a new category of “Subscribing Departments”, effectively replacing the current APTS Executive Committee. Subscribing Departments pay an annual

subscription, which is used to provide a fund from which deposits may be paid to APTS week locations. Working on the basis of 4 APTS weeks per year, each costing in the order of £18000 (in
2009) for accommodation and subsistence for 60-70 students, and requiring 25% deposits, these subscriptions need to raise £18000 per annum; were we able to secure 9 subscribing departments we should then be able to function on the basis of an annual subscription of £2000 per subscribing department. A departmental subscription paid at the start of an academic year commencing 201x would be rebated from accommodation and subsistence costs for that department's students arising from academic year commencing 201(x+1). Membership of the APTS Executive Committee would be made up of delegates from subscribing departments, together with up to two elected representatives of the Advisory Committee (which would be constituted as at present).
We have been informed that it is possible that EPSRC may be prepared to accept a bid for continued funding of APTS at a reduced level; if so then we would be able to reduce the level of subscription required.
Of course one may consider reducing the APTS programme from 4 weeks per year (as at present) to
3 or even 2 weeks per year. This is particularly relevant if EPSRC does not continue to fund participation of EPSRC students, and if the cost of participation in all 4 weeks of a typical cycle is generally considered too high. Ultimately this decision would be a matter for the Executive
Committee but Advisory Committee views would be very welcome and influential.
We envisage the remaining structure of APTS to be essentially the same as at present, with annual meetings of Advisory and Executive Committees, together with the present cycle of member institution, student registration, and APTS weeks. The priorities for admission in case of oversubscription would need to be altered: (a) to take account of the need to give higher priority to students from APTS Subscribing Institutions (following logically from the commitment to rebate their deposits), (b) in the event of not securing funding from EPSRC it would be necessary to remove the priority currently given to EPSRC students.
In particular we would expect to continue the present strategies of not changing module leadership much over time (present rate of change is of order of 1 or 2 changes per year), and of recompensing the departments of module leaders at the rate of £2000 per week, pro-rata for shared leadership. The actual value of module leader contributions is far in excess of this! As mentioned at the previous
Advisory Committee, together with annual contributions of order of £20000 for secretarial and programme manager support from the institution tasked with running APTS, and £10000 for contingencies supporting APTS weeks (for example, room hire costs, evening sessions), the resulting annual figure of £46000 suggests registration fees of the order of £230 per student per week based on an assumption of somewhat reduced attendance.
Finally we wish to emphasize that we do not presume on the inevitability of Warwick continuing to be tasked with running APTS. We welcome expressions of interest from other institutions; these expressions will be laid before the APTS Executive Committee for their decision in January 2010.
Should the Advisory Committee approve this general plan, the APTS Directors will undertake to prepare a detailed and explicitly costed plan, together with a revised constitution, for approval by the APTS Executive Committee at its next meeting in January 2010. (We have appended a
December 2008 document prepared for APTS EC which was used to initiate an email discussion by the EC which led to the plan presented above.) We will separately invite comments by EPSRC, in case they are in a position to clarify early comments on the possibility of APTS bidding for continuation of EPSRC support.

Wilfrid Kendall
16th December 2008
EPSRC funding of APTS ceases at end of academic year 2010-2011, so we need to solidify thinking about follow-up. These notes are based on a discussion with the Advisory Committee 11 September 2008
Recall that currently EPSRC funding subsidizes accommodation, board, travel for EPSRC students only, and contributes to lecturer preparation time
(but not delivery) and part of administration costs. Warwick contributes a not insubstantial part of administration costs (5% of professorial time for directorial oversight: we have found this effort to be non-trivial, and very favourable comments from AC about “ownership of APTS activity” suggest this is an important component of APTS success).
We have no view either way on whether Warwick should continue to act as
APTS “centre” after the current period of EPSRC funding. However we do think that any continuation should take care to cover the full costs of running
APTS.
Here are four options for continuation beyond 2010-2011:
1. continue APTS on the basis of being fully-funded by participating departments, charging full costs to all students for four residential weeks;
2. continue APTS on the basis of being fully-funded by participating departments, charging full costs to all students for a reduced programme of two residential weeks supplemented by web-based activity;
3. seek partial support from appropriate bodies to continue APTS on the current basis of four residential weeks, with partial support being made available to students based on appropriate criteria;
4. seek partial support from appropriate bodies to continue APTS on the reduced basis of two residential weeks, with partial support being made available to students based on appropriate criteria supplemented by webbased activity.
Based on very strong feedback from the Advisory Committee, we are omitting for now two further options, namely (5) moving APTS to an entirely web-based delivery (Advisory Committee were very strongly of the view that a substantial residential component provided a most important networking component of great long-term strategic value – see agenda 5 of AC 2008), and (6) ceasing operation of APTS altogether (included here for completeness; but the very strong positive feedback from AC 2008 suggests this is not a likely outcome).
We need to move fairly soon to a view on which options to pursue at a practical level.
1