Outstanding Past
Bright Future
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
What are we trying to achieve?
What would be a reasonable FiT for Malta and
why?
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
The Governments first priority is to meet the
10% RE 2020 target
There seems to be little interest to maximize
RE resources or think beyond 2020
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Plan – Malta
Institute for Sustainable Energy
source: “Achieving the RES 2020 Targets”
Targets” MRA Presentation
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
source: “Achieving the RES 2020 Targets”
Targets” MRA Presentation
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
End 2009 – 1.5MWp
Feb 2011- 4.9MWp
Forecast/Target ~12MWp by 2015 with
minimal increase 2015-2020
Contributing to 0.6-0.7% of total energy
consumption (2.7-2.8% of electricity)
source: “Achieving the RES 2020 Targets”
Targets” MRA Presentation
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Wind – little prospects beyond sites
being considered
Biomass – limited to current sites
SWH – limited by need and available roofspace – plenty of room for expansion
PV – limited by roof and land-space
- Plenty of room for expansion
Photo sources: http://apps.carleton.edu/campus/facilities/sustainability/wind_turbine/
http://www.solarsolutions.com.mt/3.2%20Valletta%201.JPG
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
PV PROS
No moving parts, silent, long lasting
Zero pollution
Reliable – and predictable
Produce more were sun is plentiful
Energy consumed close to where it is
produced
CONS
Take up lots of space
Not yet as cost effective for everyone.
(energy is expended to manufacture)
DC
Produce only during the day
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
CONS
Inverter efficiencies have become very high
• Production is highest when needed the
most – daytime in summer
• Will only produce part of total
Energy needs –therefore it
doesn’t matter what time.
• No transmission losses
• Many roofs are unutilized
• Bonus – provide shading in summer
•
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
AREA
How much area does it take?
In bright sunlight – to operate:
A light bulb – sheet of paper
LCD TV or PC&Monitor – 1m2
Room Air-conditioner – small
room
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
AREA
Approx. area of PV needed to produce peak consumption
(c. 500 MWp)
Available
Available rooftops,
rooftops, factories
factories and
and other
other usable
usable space
space could
could account
account for
for a
a large
large portion
portion of
of
that
area
that area
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Typical household installation in Malta
~1.5-2.0 kWp – 6-10 panels
Size of a large room
Will produce some 2200-3000kWh per year
Reduce over 2000Kg of CO2 per year – equivalent to 100
trees.
Equivalent to 16,000km of driving
Cost ~ €6000-7500
Payback – 4 – 7 years with
MRA rebate.
Limited by grant – average system size could be 2.5-3.5kWp
Assume 900g/kWh and 20Kg/tree/yr
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
50-100MWp by 2020
Contributing ~1.5-3.0% of total consumption
4 – 8% of electricity production.
Is this achievable?
How?
How much will it cost?
How can it be funded?
Photo source: http://www.electrofixenergy.com/projects/mia/
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
1. Current system capped household
installations to ~€6000 or ~1.5kWp
And Industrial systems to €100/200K
Most houses could install systems of ~3kWp
2. system is cumbersome and
slow
Simpler system would
encourage more users.
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Plenty
Plenty more
more space
space even
even near
near existing
existing installations
installations
Photo sources: http://www.solarsolutions.com.mt/
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
What would be a reasonable feed-in tariff?
For consumers
Recovery of Capital in <5 years.
A reasonable rate of return
For Commercial
Reasonable rate of return for an extended
period of time (e.g. 20 years)
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
5.5
yrs
Straight Payback (Recovery of Capital) – not accounting for interest
or other costs. Assuming €3800/kWp, 50% Grant, 1387 kWh/kWp
per
Lowyear
– 0.18c, FiT – 0.25c, High – 0.36c
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
9.5
yrs
Recovery of capital assuming simple interest cost of 5% and maintenance
cost of €30 pa/kWp. Assuming €3800/kWp, 50% Grant,1387 kWh/kWp per
year
Low – 0.18c, FiT – 0.25c, High – 0.36c
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
2011 Self-Usage bonus
Under 30% Energy used
20 yr Energy Cost +Bonus directly (Bonus value)
<30 kWp
0.17 €
30 kWp<100 kWp
0.15 €
100 kWp<1 MWp
0.13 €
Over 30% Energy used
directly (Bonus value)
0.21 €
0.19 €
0.18 €
Effective feed-in tariff can be close to 49c
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Integration type
<3 kWp
3<20 kWp
20<200 kWp
Energy produced
Field
0.3840 €/kWh
0.3650 €/kWh
0.3460 €/kWh
<500,000 kWh/year
0.1011 €/kWh
Rooftop
0.4220 €/kWh
0.4030 €/kWh
0.3840 €/kWh
Fully integrated
0.4700 €/kWh
0.4420 €/kWh
0.4220 €/kWh
Net meterin bonus
500,000<1,000,000 kWh/year 1,000,000<2,000,0 00 kWh/year
0.0852 €/kWh
0.0745 €/kWh
5% Bonus
>3kWh with 70%+ self consumption
Schools, hospitals, farms replacing asbestos roofs
public systems in small communities
Effective feed-in tariff can be close to 60c
Rovigo (70MWp)
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Correction for insolation factor relative to Germany
Effective feed-in tariff for small systems includes bonuses and best case
for each country.
Not including tax and other rebates.
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Assuming average price per kWp of €3800, 1387 kWh/kWp,
€30/kWp maintenance. Payback assumes 5% simple interest cost
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Decline due to reduction in
polysilicon prices and entry
of Chinese manufacturers
Retail prices for modules are falling – but it is dangerous to extrapolate too
far into the future. Module price is 60-70% of system. Other costs are not
decreasing in a similar way.
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Goal 1 – Cost per Watt becomes
equal or less than conventional
sources. (or payback less than 7
years)
Goal 2 – Durability remains as good
as current panels.
Goal 3 – efficiency comparable or
better than current panels
Goal 4 – greater versatility
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
CURRENT TECHNOLOGIES
•3 Years - Cost of silicon photovoltaics will
go down >20%
•3 Years – a-Si systems cost 40-50% less
than current systems and dependable
.
• 3-5 Years - Electricity costs will go up ()
• 5-10 Years - CdTe/CIGS – will reach
12%+ efficiency – cost 40-50% less than
current systems and be available to homeowners.
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Assuming average price per kWp of €3000, 1387 kWh/kWp,
€30/kWp maintenance. Payback assumes 5% simple interest cost
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Rate-of return under various scenarios
Assuming €3000/kWp,
3000/kWp 1387 kWh/kWp, €30/yr expenses, 5%
int. cost for 20 yr loans
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Rate-of return under various scenarios
Assuming €3000/kWp,
3000/kWp 1387 kWh/kWp, €30/yr expenses,
5.5% int. cost for 10 yr loans FiT 0.25c after 10 yrs.
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Rate-of return under various scenarios
Assuming €3000/kWp,
3000/kWp 1387 kWh/kWp, €30/yr expenses,
5.5% int. cost for 10 yr loans FiT equal to average kWh cost
after 10 yrs.
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
What would be a reasonable FiT for Malta?
If we are after an aggressive plan:
for homes
€0.4-0.45 for 10 years – with a high cap (say
10kWp/home) followed by a reasonable tariff
after (at least equal to the average kWh).
€0.35-0.4 for 20 years
For business
At least €0.3-0.35 for 20 years
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
For Scenario 3
Cost is approx.
€10M/yr for 15 years
For 50MWp installed
Over 5 years
Can be covered with an additional 0.5 –
1.0c/kWh sold.
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
50MWp installed
Equivalent to planting 2,500,000 trees
Equivalent to reducing 50,000 cars off the
road
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
~€1200-1500
~€3000-3800
A SWH system provides about the same benefit as 1kWp PV system
Photo source: http://www.bajadagroup.com/sample_installation.html
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Made inroads – c. 15,000 installed –
contributing to 0.6% of energy consumption.
Number could double if properly incentivized
Contributing ~1.2% of total
energy needs.
How? How much?
Photo source: http://www.bajadagroup.com/sample_installation.html
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
A € 600 rebate would cost €9M
Over 5 years - < €2M/yr
0.1c/kWh sold
Aggressive media/education campaign
Hassle free process
Mandate that all new buildings
must have SWH
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011
L. Mule’ Stagno
Institute for Sustainable Energy
Rate-of return under various scenarios
Assuming €3800/kWp, 1387 kWh/kWp, €30/yr expenses,
5.5% and 7% int. cost for 10 and 20 yr loans
SOLAR ENERGY MARKETS: MALTESE AND GERMAN EXPERIENCES TOWARDS 2020
2020 5th April 2011