CLIMAS and other RISAs
Climate research and products
relevant to mountainous regions:
Input from stakeholders
Melanie Lenart, Gregg Garfin, Barbara Morehouse, Marcela
Vasquez-Leon and Andrew Comrie
MTNCLIM 2005
Pray, Montana
March 3, 2005
RISA = Regional Integrated Science and Assessment
CLIMAS Mission
Organization of talk
‹ Background
Users
Producers
ƒ Assess and improve understanding of climate
and its impacts on human and natural systems in
the Southwest.
Southwest.
„ Improve the ability of people (stakeholders) in
the region to respond to climatic events, climate
variability, and longlong-term climate change.
on integrated
assessment using White Mountain
project to illustrate
‹ Comments by stakeholders from that
and other projects
‹ Background on CLIMAS illustrated
with END Insight/ Southwest Climate
Outlook project
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Integrated Assessment
From Comrie,
Comrie, Lemos,
Lemos, Overpeck and
Hughes (in progress):
‹ Sustained stakeholder involvement in the
overall research process
‹ Integration across disciplinary boundaries
‹ Integration across spatial and temporal
scales
‹ Identification of the essential factors
comprising the multiple natural and human
stressors affecting decisions
Integrated climate
assessment:
White Mountains of
Arizona
Co-development of Usable Science
Integrated Assessment:
The CLIMAS Model
(Lemos & Morehouse 2005)
‹
Iterative
– Close and sustained
collaboration with
stakeholders
‹
xxx
Development of research
questions
‹ Research process
‹ Operationalization of
knowledge tools
‹
‹
‹
‹
‹
Interdisciplinary
– Integrated approach
Biophysical + social science
expertise
Useful, usable, relevant
– Synergistic interactions
‹
Stakeholder needs +
scientific capabilities
– Sustained interactions throughout Research &
Development process
Iterativity
Interaction with
stakeholders
Usable
Science
x
Stakeholders’ needs influence research
activities
Interdisciplinarity
Interdisciplinary research drives
knowledge production
– Across spatial, temporal, societal scales
xxx
‹
Research focuses on interactions among
multiple stressors
– Biophysical processes
– Societal implications and impacts
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Project Beginnings
‹
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CLIMAS team identifies area, overarching goals,
questions
Social science group, directed by anthropologists,
conducts scoping interviews
– Consider stakeholder interest in various topics
– Assess vulnerabilities of local livelihoods to climate
impacts
‹
CLIMAS team members attend regional meetings,
work with stakeholders to organize workshops
– Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with tribes
‹
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Research carried out by CLIMAS team
Regular CLIMAS team meetings to discuss
progress, issues, ideas
Land Ownership
Privat e Land Ownership in Navajo Count y
Navajo County
Private Land Ow nership in Apache County
Apache County
Purple = Reservation land
Yellow =Public land
Blue = Private land
Ski Resort on tribal lands
Increased vulnerability to climate change
due to increased investment 19601960-1980,
and predictions of declining snow pack
and shorter snow seasons
‹ Accounts for up to 60% of economic
activity in winter for some towns (Show
Low) but cities have no influence on
policy
‹ SnowSnow-making can decrease vulnerability,
but it can account for 15% to 25% of
operating costs
‹
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Bark beetle invasion
‹
Rodeo-Chediski fire was largest wildfire in Arizona
history, burning 468,000 acres
Big Question
for Mountain
Communities:
Is the scale of
the recent bark
beetle outbreak
larger because
of higher
temperatures?
June 19 @ 0900 ignition point, Rodeo Fire
Apache-Sitgreaves stewardship
Photos by Gregg Garfin
Small trees to pellets for heating
Photos by Gregg Garfin
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Climate change and forests
Monitoring of treatments
‹ Group
intends to monitor social
effects of stewardship project as well
as changes in hydroclimatology,
hydroclimatology,
ecology
‹ Activities correspond well to CLIMAS
plan to take integrated look at
hydroclimatology,
hydroclimatology, ecology,
economics, vulnerability of livelihoods
‹ Area changing from physical
extraction to amenity economy
Managers are not sure what to plant after
largelarge-scale fires in some places. Will
landscape sustain Ponderosa forests?
‹ Forest managers need to know shortshort-term
climate change scenarios as well as longlongterm – 10 to 20 years
‹ U.S. Forest Service revising management
plans, 2006
‹ NCDC results show Arizona temperatures
increasing ~1°F/decade since 1975.
Reasonable to apply trend?
‹
More climate change concerns
“Woody encroachment” of grasslands,
“woodification”
woodification” of forests – connection to
CO2 levels/climate change?
Land managers
‹
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Snowfall vs. rainfall, plus: How might
distribution of summer vs. winter rainfall
change? Perception that winter rains
benefit woody plants more than grasses.
Ranchers
Summer rainfall forecasts
Grazing permits issued in February:
February:
Agencies interested in any models that
can correlate summer rain with available
variables.
‹ Reliable forecast in June predicting date
of monsoon onset for “fire use”
approach, grasslands.
‹ Length of spring dry period can be
important for animal species (e.g.,
Sonoran pronghorn fawn survival)
because of effect on grasses.
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Elevation and cloud cover
‹ Evaporation
rates and other
climate data for highhigh-elevation
sites.
‹ More details on how winds affect
evapotranspiration rates to instruct
watering regime for reforestation
efforts.
‹ Forecasts for spring and winter cloud
cover,
cover, perceived as affecting sales of
heating pellets more than
temperature.
Interest in SWCO feature articles
‹ Feature
article on how thinning
treatments affects water yield.
‹ Feature article on how climate
changes with elevation.
‹ Information to share with general
public about drought, projected
duration.
‹ Distribution of CLIMAS publications,
Southwest Climate Outlook.
END Insight project,
Southwest Climate Outlook
Monthly packets
contain:
– Executive summary
– Feature article
– Products depicting
Recent Conditions
– Products depicting
Forecasts
– Forecast Verification
Morphed into Southwest Climate Outlook:
Web addresses for original product always listed at bottom of page
http://www.ispe.arizona.edu/climas/forecasts/swoutlook.html
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Survey comments: Climatology
“My main problem with this discussion is
the narrow definition of what constitutes
‘average.’ … the period of record of 197119712000 was probably the wettest period in
the past 1,000 years. This puts discussion
of drought conditions and precipitation
expectations into an unreal context.”
Environmental NGO worker
‹ “The use of the arithmetic mean for
precipitation and temperature from 197119712000 is not a useful guide, given that this
was a very wet period. Please consider
using longer term means as a reference
instead!” Land manager
‹
Survey comments
‹ “We
could use information regarding
nighttime temperatures at
specific elevations to give us an
idea as to when plants will slow in
growth or stop altogether.” Land
manager.
manager.
Considers critical growth threshold
~ 47 degrees F
Survey comments: Ranchers
Comments: Fire managers
Monsoon onset important in some regions
to predict end of fire season
‹ Probability of ecologically relevant rainfall
regimes during fire seasons:
‹
– RainRain-free periods of 10 days or more in East
can increase risk; duration differs by area
– Specific intensity levels, such as halfhalf-inch rain
needed in NC to moisten fuels enough to reduce
fire risk
– Preference for nonnon-stochastic probability, such
as comparison to roughly analogous
years
“Rain train”
train” reported by some ranchers,
especially in summer: Any predictability
of smallsmall-scale spatial stability of storm
tracks within a given season?
‹ Information on the estimated seasonal
timing, intensity of precip events.
‹ Fall forecast for winter precip useful
when considering
hay harvesting
and purchase.
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