THE NATURE CONSERVANCY’S PERSPECTIVE
ON CLIMATE CHANGE:
THE NEW CHALLENGE FOR CONSERVATION PLANNERS
AND PRACTIONERS.
Joseph Kiesecker and Joni Ward
The Nature Conservancy, Lander WY 82520
WHY SHOULD TNC BOLSTER OUR EFFORTS
RELATED TO CLIMATE CHANGE?
• It is a pervasive threat that can affect what we have done and
what we will do to protect biodiversity.
• We will only be able to achieve our mission by protecting our
investments in places.
• We are widely respected for our conservation planning;
planning that does not consider the future is incomplete and
risks failure.
• We need to be able to evaluate the value of our current
conservation portfolio under future conditions and to identify
the best places to include in our future conservation portfolio
Mission Statement:
…to preserve the plants,
animals, and natural
communities that represent the diversity of life on
Earth by protecting the lands and waters
they need to survive.
United States
12 million acres conserved
1400 preserves
International
80 million acres conserved
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Measure
Success
SCIENCE
Take Action
Develop
Strategies
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Develop
Strategies
Measure
Success
Take Action
Ecoregional Planning
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Ecological systems
Develop
Strategies
Measure
Success
Take Action
Targets
Ecoregional Plan
Communities
Species
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Develop
Strategies
Measure
Success
TARGETS
Take Action
Conservation Goals
Species….
- population size
- distribution
Communities / Systems….
- scale
- distribution
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Develop
Strategies
Measure
Success
TARGETS
Take Action
Species and System Viability
- size
- condition
- landscape context
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Develop
Strategies
Measure
Success
Take Action
TARGETS
Species Viability
- size = area and number
- condition = reproductive success
- landscape context = connectivity
intactness
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Develop
Strategies
Measure
Success
System Viability
Take Action
- size =
TARGETS
area needed to sustain processes
- condition =
physical and spatial structure
presence of exotics
- landscape context =
presence of
disturbance regime; intactness
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Develop
Strategies
Measure
Success
Take Action
Ecoregion
Portfolio of Sites
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Develop
Strategies
Measure
Success
Take Action
Portfolio of Sites
Site - specific Plan
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Develop
Strategies
Measure
Success
Conservation Action
Take Action
• Acquisition of interest
• Adaptive management
• Public policies
• Compatible development
• Community-based conservation
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Measure
Success
Develop
Strategies
Success
Take Action
• Biodiversity health
• Threat status
CONSERVATION BY DESIGN
Set Priorities
Measure
Success
SCIENCE
Take Action
Develop
Strategies
TNC AND CLIMATE CHANGE
What are we doing?
How do we incorporate what’s out there into what we do?
TNC Climate Change Brainstorming Workshop
• Climate change has the potential to affect
everything we do, everywhere we work, and to erode
our hard-won conservation gains of the past 50
years.
• Climate change needs to become part of the
everyday dialog in TNC, not something confined to a
particular group.
• TNC’s strengths are our places, and our
conservation results. We should use our places and
projects to assess the risks and vulnerabilities to
climate change.
WHAT DO WE CURRENTLY HAVE AND DO?
• The Global Climate Change Initiative
• The Marine Initiative
• Several Operating Units (e.g. AK, WA, CA, NC)
have initiated efforts to assess impacts of climate
change on particular ecosystems or ecoregions.
• Other operating units (e.g. Brazil, Belize, Virginia,
Indiana and Ohio) have been active in piloting
carbon projects.
•Government Relations staff spend time to inform
policy decisions at local or regional levels (e.g. ME,
CT, WA, TN, OH, LA, AR)
WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO?
Structure our climate change program around a few basic questions:
What are the likely changes in the physical climate?
This is the realm of most climate-change modeling; it needs to be scaled to the
scales of our conservation actions; rely on the work partners.
How can we conduct risk and vulnerability
assessments that anticipate possible thresholds as
opposed to gradual degradation? -In particular, how do we
aggregate the vulnerabilities of multiple species or systems (i.e. targets) and
what non-biological factors should be included in the assessments?
What are the likely ecological responses to these
changes? -Most work in this area has dealt with shifts in species
distributions in relation to “bioclimatic envelopes”; how can we link the
responses of species and ecological systems directly to our conservation
planning and actions?
WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO?
• Engage staff in both domestic and international
programs in incorporating climate change into
conservation planning.
Evidence for this as a Priority
Survey of Rocky Mountain staff regarding Climate Change.
~ 320 staff, 128 respondents
Climate Change Attitudinal Survey for the Rocky Mountain Region
•Did you know that TNC has a climate change initiative?
•Do you think TNC should attempt to account for climate change in
our conservation planning?
•Do you think TNC should implement strategies based on climate
change scenarios?
•Is your state is incorporating climate change into conservation planning?
•How is your state incorporating climate into change into conservation
planning? (i.e, site selection)
•Is your state is incorporating climate change into 'on the ground'
conservation strategies?
•How is your state incorporating climate change into 'on the ground'
conservation strategies? (i.e. projects, partnership, etc.)
•What category best describes you?
•Please select your state affiliation.
Climate Change Attitudinal Survey for the Rocky Mountain Region
•Did you know that TNC has a climate change initiative?
•Do you think TNC should attempt to account for climate change in
our conservation planning?
•Do you think TNC should implement strategies based on climate
change scenarios?
•Is your state is incorporating climate change into conservation planning?
•How is your state incorporating climate into change into conservation
planning? (i.e, site selection)
•Is your state is incorporating climate change into 'on the ground'
conservation strategies?
•How is your state incorporating climate change into 'on the ground'
conservation strategies? (i.e. projects, partnership, etc.)
•What category best describes you?
•Please select your state affiliation.
Did you know that TNC has a climate change initiative?
85% yes; 15% no
Do you think TNC should attempt to account for climate change in
our conservation planning?
78.2% yes; 3.9% no; 17.9% I don’t know
Do you think TNC should implement strategies based on climate
change scenarios?
60.2% yes; 6.2% no; 33.6 I don’t know
Is your state is incorporating climate change into conservation planning?
27% yes; 21% no; 52% I don’t know
Is your state is incorporating climate change into 'on the ground'
conservation strategies?
14% yes; 22.6% no; 63.4% I don’t know
Survey Comments:
The problem with implementing strategies based on climate change scenarios
is that they can vary from model to model and/or the resolution of prediction
is too course for TNC's Ecoregional Planning.
The question, in my opinion, is how, not if. How does one craft strategies which
can address, even if only partially, the consequences of climate change?
How do investments in such strategies compare, from a cost-benefit standpoint,
with other strategies which TNC might employ?
TNC definitely needs to incorporate ideas of climate change into our conservation
planning and action. Implementing conservation strategies 'on-the-ground' based
on climate change scenarios seems a little slippery to me given the wide range
of expected outcomes from the models that I'm familiar with.
I definitely think climate change is important to look at when planning for the long
term. What I don't know is whether current research can accurately describe changes
that are likely to take place in specific areas - thus implementing strategies based
on climate change scenarios becomes problematic....
What’s available for TNC to work with?
Percent of ecoregion area where physiognomic vegetation types
are expected to shift over the next 100 years due to climate change
Jennings 2005 TNC Report; Data from Gonzales et al. (2004)
Alteration of precipitation patterns (SOI/ENSO)
and Amphibian Declines
Pounds et al. 1999
Kiesecker et al. 2001
Why relatively little “on ground action”
regarding Climate Change at TNC?
Don’t fear global warming
Oklahoma Daily
Robert C. Balling Jr.
Jan 21 2004
More like Global Freezing
GORE WARNS OF
“GLOBAL WARMING”
ON NEW YORK CITY’S
COLDEST DAY IN DECADES
New York Post
Jan 15th 2004
Cold Facts on Global Warming
Officials mustn’t be unduly influenced by scare tactics
that cite Climate Change
Los Angeles Times
Jan 22 2004
Climate change is
“more serious threat than terrorism”
says UK Chief Scientists Sir David King
BBC News
Jan 9 2004
Climate change threatens a
Million species
Winnipeg Sun
26 January 2004
Why relatively little “on ground action”
regarding Climate Change at TNC?
-Complexity and confusion of the issue
-Urgency
We need people with climate
change experience, (climatologists
and climate change biologists)
involved in the planning process.