San Francisco Chronicle, Monday, September 19, 2011
The North American Opportunity
By Robert A. Pastor
NAFTA was originally a free-trade agreement between Canada, Mexico and
the United States, but it soon morphed into a piñata for pandering
pundits and politicians. Moved by different fears, each took whacks at
it. The first fear was a loss of jobs to Mexico, but as it turned out,
NAFTA's most rapid growth in trade coincided with the largest expansion
of jobs in American history. Then, the pundits blamed NAFTA for illegal
migration, drugs and violence, and every problem in our relations with
Mexico and Canada.
Of course, NAFTA did not address these issues, which are part of a new
transnational agenda in which all three countries have a choice of
blaming each other or devising a new mode of cooperation. So far, they
are still in the NAFTA-blaming game. The time has come to end the debate
on NAFTA and begin one on the future of North America. If we fail to
grasp this, our chronic problems will grow worse, and our potential as a
region competing against China will never be utilized.
Since 2001, the growth in U.S. trade with our two neighbors has declined
by two-thirds, and yet it still surpassed $1 trillion, making Canada and
Mexico are two most important markets. In 2010, we exported four times
more to our neighbors than to China, and we imported more energy from
Canada and Mexico than from any other two nations. So while our
neighbors depend on us, we also depend on them.
The "North American Idea" is based on a simple premise. When one nation
has a problem, its neighbors are also hurt. We felt this when Mexico had
a currency crisis in 1994, and Mexico and Canada felt it when our
economy plummeted in 2007. But the opposite also applies: When Canada
and Mexico emerged from the economic crisis faster than we did, in 2010,
they purchased $80 billion more in U.S. goods than the year before.
We can expand our trade fastest with our neighbors, and it benefits us
more because the three North American countries make products together,
meaning that a much higher percentage of our imports are composed of
American exports.
Our agenda is much wider than trade and the economy. If we can absorb a
"North American idea" into our consciousness, many new policies are
possible. Our economies could be much more efficient if we eliminate
costly "rules of origin." We should work with Mexicans and Canadians to
have only one set of forms to cross borders and expand access for
frequent and trusted travelers. And if we viewed our neighbors as
partners rather than the problem, we could forge common approaches on
immigration, energy and drugs.
North America's share of the world gross product soared from 29 percent
in 1994 to 36 percent in 2001. Since then, it has declined to where it
was in 1994. Together, the three governments could recover our past
success and spread the increasing benefits to those in our countries
that have been left behind. It all starts with a North American idea - a
healthy respect for our neighbors and a determination to create a
formidable regional community.
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Robert A. Pastor is a professor at American University and author of
"The North American Idea: A Vision of a Continental Future."
[articles/NA/SF Chronicle - NA - Sept 2011]