President Obama’s Opening to Cuba and the 2016 Elections
William M. LeoGrande, American University
“This president is the single worst negotiator we have had in the White House in my lifetime."
“Fidel and Raúl Castro have just received both international legitimacy and a badly‐needed economic lifeline from President Obama.” “The Obama Administration’s decision to restore diplomatic ties . . . Undermines
the quest for a free and democratic Cuba.”
"The concept of opening with Cuba is fine, but we should have made a better deal."
U.S. National Poll on Relations with Cuba
PEW Research Center, July 2015
U.S. National Opinion on Cuba
Jim Norman, “Majority of Americans View Cuba Favorably for First Time,” Gallup, February 15, 2016
Republican and Democratic Shares of the Presidential Vote by Cuban Americans in Florida, 1980‐2012
Exit Polls
percentage
100
80
60
R
40
D
20
0
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
2012
Precinct Analysis
percentage
100
80
60
R
40
D
20
0
1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
William M. LeoGrande, “Fresh Start for a Stale Policy: Can Obama Break the Stalemate in U.S.‐Cuban Relations?” AU CLALS
Cuban‐American Attitudes on Commerce with Cuba, 1991‐2014
0.9
0.8
0.7
82%
77%
Favor
0.6
0.5
52%
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Florida International University Cuba Poll
Sell medicine
Sell food
End embargo
Cuban Americans in Florida , by Year of Arrival
100%
90%
80%
70%
2000 or later
60%
1990‐99
50%
1980‐89
40%
Before 1980
30%
US born
20%
10%
0%
1980
U.S. Census Bureau
2000
2010
Naturalization of Cuban Americans in Florida,
2010, by Year of Arrival
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
Unnaturalized
Naturalized
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Before 1980
U.S. Census Bureau
1980‐1989
1990‐1999
2000 or later
Cuban American Citizens in Florida, by Year of Arrival
100%
90%
80%
70%
2000 or later
60%
1990‐99
50%
1980‐89
40%
Before 1980
30%
US born
20%
10%
0%
1980
U.S. Census Bureau
2000
2010
Cuban American Party Registration in South Florida