ITUITU-D Regional Development Forums 2010 on
NGN and Broadband (ARB, EUR & CIS Regions):
“NGN and Broadband, Opportunities and Challenges”
Challenges”
Session 3
Broadband Access Network Planning:
Case Studies from the Region
Ignat Stanev
HCTP/ITC, Bulgaria
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 1
Content of the presentation :
Case studies and used planning tools
Case study 1 – Georgia (2007) for Administration :
Overall country BB market
BB access network for Tbilisi urban area
BB access network for suburban area
Case study 2 – Tajikistan (2008) for Regulator :
Overall country BB market
BB access network for Dushanbe urban area
BB access network for Dushanbe suburban area
Case study 3 – Moldova (2009) for Administration :
Overall country BB market
BB access network for the capital Chisinau
BB access network for Typical town
BB access network for typical rural area
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 2
1
Case studies on broadband access network
planning
ITU-D Forum
The case studies present the planning
process that needs to be performed for
planning of broadband access networks
Planning process includes market
definition, dimensioning and optimization
of the access network elements, economic
analysis and results.
The case studies are from ITU projects on
assisting of developing countries and are
performed with professional NP tools,
available through ITU partners
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 3
Case study tools
VPIsystems OnePlan Access
Market definition
Evolution forecasting
Demand mapping
Technology modeling
Network design optimization
Economy analysis
LStelcom MULTIlink
MULTIlink is a complete solution
for fast microwave link
engineering and designing of
PMP/WLL/LMDS networks.
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 4
2
Case Study Georgia - BB market
Evolution of population and business
9 regions
Services:
Voice
Fast Internet
IPTV/Video on demand
FTTO connection
Penetration of broadband services
SOHO & ResM
ME & ResH & Schools & Hotels
ResL
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 5
Case study Georgia - BB market
Batumi region
9 regions
Total number of customers
and per customer class
Rustavi
region
Borjomi region
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 6
3
Case study Tbilisi – urban area :
Tbilisi city (5 districts)
Number of customers per district
(year +4)
Number of customers per customer class
4 customer classes
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 7
Case study Tbilisi – access network for urban area :
Tbilisi city
(5 districts)
Technical solution FTTO
(7 Agg. Nodes)
Technical solution xDSL for VoIP,
Fast Internet, IPTV/Video
( 134 DSLAMs )
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 8
4
Case study Tbilisi – suburban area :
Tbilisi suburban region (Tskneti,
Dighomi, Tabaxmela, Chindisi )
Number of customers per customer class
Number of customers per village
(year +4)
3 customer classes
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 9
Case study Tbilisi suburbs - mountain rural area :
Wireline xDSL
vs.
Wireless WiMAX
Results for xDSL
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 10
5
Case study Tbilisi suburbs – Wireless access
network :
Year +2
Results for
wireless
( WiMAX )
Year +5
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 11
Case study Tbilisi suburbs - Economic Analysis :
Net Present Value
NPN results :
Wireline xDSL
vs.
Wireless
WiMAX
Rural area -Tskneti-WiMAX-b-Year2; IRR=86.4%; Rural area -Tskneti-xDSL-Year2; IRR=0%
20000
0
in Euro
-20000
Rural area -Tskneti-WiMAX-b-Year2
-40000
Rural area -Tskneti-xDSL-Year2
-60000
-80000
-100000
1
2
Net Present Value
Results for 2
Tbilisi-Tskneti-Dighomi-Tabaxmela-xDSL_corr1; IRR=31.3%; Tbilisi-Tskneti-Dighomi-Tabaxmela-WiMAX; IRR=81.5%
400000
year period
300000
200000
100000
in Euro
0
Tbilisi-Tskneti-Dighomi-Tabaxmela-xDSL_corr1
-100000
Tbilisi-Tskneti-Dighomi-Tabaxmela-WiMAX
-200000
-300000
-400000
Results for 5
-500000
-600000
1
2
3
4
5
year period
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 12
6
Case Study Georgia - reports
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 13
Content of the presentation :
Case studies and used planning tools
Case study 1 – Georgia (2007) for Administration :
Overall country BB market
BB access network for Tbilisi urban area
BB access network for suburban area
Case study 2 – Tajikistan (2008) for Regulator :
Overall country BB market
BB access network for Dushanbe urban area
BB access network for Dushanbe suburban area
Case study 3 – Moldova (2009) for Administration :
Overall country BB market
BB access network for the capital Chisinau
BB access network for Typical town
BB access network for typical rural area
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 14
7
Case Study Tajikistan - BB market
Services:
Voice
Fast Internet
IPTV/Video on demand
Data connectivity
Population
(2008)
7215000
HHSeze=5.3
1361321
Residential
80%
1360000
Business
20%
340000
HH
Evolution of
BB/Optimistic
Bus: 20-60%
Res: 2-20%
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 15
Case study Tajikistan - BB market
Number of BB customers (pessimistic)
Number of Subscribers
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
Target av. access speed:
RES : 1,5 Mbit/s
BUS : 2 Mbit/s
200000
150000
BB_Bus
100000
BB_Res
50000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
Estimated bandwidth
requirements (optimistic)
2013
Time
Average Bandw idth per Service
Number of BB customers (optimistic)
150000
in Mbit/s
Number of Subscribers
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
400000
300000
Data connectivity
100000
Internet-bus
Internet-res
50000
IPTV/Video
BB_Bus
200000
BB_Res
100000
0
POTS
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
VoIP
Time
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 16
8
Case study Dushanbe – urban and suburban area :
Dushanbe urban
(4 districts)
Number of customers per customer class
Number of customers per district (year +5)
Number of Subscribers
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
25000
20000
15000
BB_Bus
10000
BB_Res
5000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 17
Case study Dushanbe – access network for urban area :
Dushanbe city
(4 districts)
Wireline xDSL Target solution
(year +5)
MSAN
Technical solution xDSL
for VoIP, Data, Internet,
IPTV/Video
( 49 MSANs and 9 EANs)
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 18
9
Case study Dushanbe – access network for urban area :
Dushanbe city
(4 districts)
Wireline xDSL Initial solution
(year +1)
Technical solution
xDSL for VoIP, Data,
Internet, IPTV/Video
( 14 MSANs)
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 19
Case study Dushanbe – access network for urban area :
Dushanbe city
(4 districts)
WiMAX overlay
BS
Technical solution
WiMAX for VoIP,
Data, Internet,
IPTV/Video
( 25 BSs)
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 20
10
Case study Dushanbe urban - Economic Results :
Dushanbe_BB(Pessimistic)-xDSL_v3
Cost
7000000
NPN for xDSL and WiMAX solutions
6000000
5000000
4000000
USD
Maintenance
Installation
Acquisition
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
1/1/2009
1/1/2010
1/1/2011
1/1/2012
1/1/2013
Costs for the 5 year period
A.Firdavsi
A.Sino
Shohmans
ur
Cost
I.Somonii
in 1 USD
Total Cost Node (f or 1/1/2009)
2500000
2000000
1500000
1000000
500000
0
Name
Costs for the first year
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 21
Case study Dushanbe –suburban area :
Dushanbe suburban
(sample with 5 villages)
Number of Subscribers
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
100
80
60
BB_Bus
40
BB_Res
20
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
Number of customers per village (year +5)
ITU-D Forum
Number of customers per customer class
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 22
11
Case study Dushanbe suburban –
wireless access network :
Dushanbe suburban
(sample with 5 villages)
Results for wireless ( 3 BS - WiMAX )
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 23
Case study Dushanbe suburbanEconomic Results :
Revenues, Costs, NPN for WiMAX
Urban area
WiMAX vs. xDSL – NPV results
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 24
12
Case Study Tajikistan - reports
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 25
Content of the presentation :
Case studies and used planning tools
Case study 1 – Georgia (2007) for Administration :
Overall country BB market
BB access network for Tbilisi urban area
BB access network for suburban area
Case study 2 – Tajikistan (2008) for Regulator :
Overall country BB market
BB access network for Dushanbe urban area
BB access network for Dushanbe suburban area
Case study 3 – Moldova (2009) for Administration :
Overall country BB market
BB access network for the capital Chisinau
BB access network for Typical town
BB access network for typical rural area
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 26
13
Case Study Moldova - BB market
BB Customer data 2009
Services:
Voice
Fast Internet
IPTV/Video on demand
Data connectivity
BB
Customers
(2009)
135000
Residential
117382
Business
17618
MID strategy
is of 20% BB
customer
penetration in
5 years
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 27
Case study Moldova - BB market
Y
BB Customer forecast
Saturation of BB
customers related to
present telephone
penetration – ~33%
1
YWV
Point of inflection
YV (0)
0
T(0)
T
T(0) + TW V
Logistic model
Total number of BB customers
25% BB
customer
penetration
in 5 years
Average Bandw idth
Total Number of
Subscribers
300000
200000
100000
0
2500000
2000000
2009
2010
2011
2012
in Mbit/s
Number of Subscribers
Total Number of Subscribers
700000
600000
500000
400000
2013
Time
1500000
Average Bandwidth
1000000
500000
0
Estimated bandwidth requirements
ITU-D Forum
2009
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
Session 3-IS - 28
14
Case study for capital Chisinau - BB market :
Pessimistic scenario (20%)
Total Number of Subscribers
year
xDSL
WiMAX
FTTB
LAN+CATV
2009
67.4%
0.1%
17.4%
15.1%
2009
50916
76
13144
11407
2013
70%
2%
23%
5%
2013
101238
2893
33264
7231
Difference
50322
2817
20119
-4176
N umber of
Subscribers
120000
100000
80000
Total Number of
Subscribers
60000
40000
Estimated market segment
20000
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Time
Optimistic scenario (35%)
xDSL
WiMAX
FTTB
LAN+CATV
2009
67.4%
0.1%
17.4%
15.1%
2009
50916
76
13144
11407
2013
70%
2%
23%
5%
2013
177167
5062
58212
12655
Difference
126251
4986
45064
1248
ITU-D Forum
Number of Subscribers
Estimated market segment
year
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
250000
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
BB_Bus
BB_Res
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Session 3-IS - 29
Case study Chisinau - BB access network :
xDSL
FTTB
Target access speed:
8 Mbit/s
Modulation:
QPSK 2/3
Speed -DL TDD:
4.3 Mbps
WiMAX
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 30
15
Case study Chisinau – economic results
Chisinau - NPV
120000000
100000000
80000000
60000000
40000000
20000000
0
9/1/2009
9/1/2010
9/1/2011
Pessimistic
9/1/2012
9/1/2013
Optimistic
Results for NPV : xDSL+ WiMAX + FTTB
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 31
Case study for typical town - BB market :
BB Customers
Nisporeni
Target of BB
penetration
(2013)
BB
penetration
(2009)
% BB
residential
% BB
business
20%
6.7%
89%
11%
Number of
Subscribers
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
BB_Bus
BB_Res
Market segment WiMAX –
2009 – 0%
2013 - 30%
Bandwidth requirements
Time
Market segment xDSL –
2009 – 100%
2013 - 70%
ITU-D Forum
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Average
Bandwidth
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
in Mbit/s
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Average Bandw idth
Time
Session 3-IS - 32
16
Case study town - BB access network :
WiMAX
xDSL
Target access speed:
4 Mbit/s
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 33
Case study town – economic results
NPV - Nisporeni
1200000
1000000
800000
600000
400000
200000
0
9/1/2009
9/1/2010
9/1/2011
9/1/2012
9/1/2013
WxDSL&WiMAX
Results for NPV : xDSL + WiMAX
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 34
17
Case study for typical rural area - BB market :
Village
Cioresti
BB total
BB residential
BB business
752
19
17
2
140
Dolna
428
279
Micleuseni
753
347
30
Evolution of the xDSL customers :
10% penetration goal
90% residential; 10% business
1 common access point per village
market segment
if xDSL exists -70% of the market
if only telephones -50% of the market
Average Bandw idth
800
600
400
BB_Res(Rural)
200
0
Common access
Rural
in Mbit/s
BB_Bus(Rural)
400
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
Number of Subscribers
Number of Subscribers per Customer Class
telephones
1273
Vulcanesti
Huzun
BB Customers
Households
300
100
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Time
Time
ITU-D Forum
Average
Bandwidth
200
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 35
Case study rural - BB access network :
Market segment of WiMAX :
if xDSL exists -30% of the market
if only telephones -50% of the market
if nothing -100% of the market
WiMAX
xDSL
Market segment of xDSL :
if xDSL exists -70% of the market
if only telephones -50% of the market
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Target access speed:
2 Mbit/s
Session 3-IS - 36
18
Case study rural – economic results
Nisporeni-Rural
60000
Results for NPV –
xDSL & WiMAX
40000
20000
0
9/1/2009
9/1/2010
9/1/2011
9/1/2012
9/1/2013
-20000
Rural area - NPV
-40000
100000
-60000
xDSL
WiMAX
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
9/1/2009
9/1/2010
9/1/2011
9/1/2012
9/1/2013
-20000
Results for NPV –
xDSL + WiMAX
-40000
-60000
xDSL&WiMAX
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 37
Case Study Moldova - reports
ITU-D Forum
Chisinau (Moldova), 4-6 May 2010
Session 3-IS - 38
19