ITu-D Cairo 13 – 15 December
Where is the growth and what do we need to
do about it?
Jeremy Foster, Director of Government and INdustry
Relations, RMEA
Outline
› Broadband is ‘tipping’
› Delivering Mobile Broadband
› Spectrum Challenge
› Create spectrum
– (and don’t break the laws of physics)
› Conclusions
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 2
The “digital natives”
A new generation is emerging
10,000 hours of
mobile phone use
MySpace/
YouTube
Different expectations
about work and play
250,000 emails,
IM, and SMS
Technologically
literate
5,000 hours of
video game playing
3,500 hours of online
social networking
Constantly
connected
Sharing/
Blogging
Content creators
and multi-taskers
Source: The Digital Natives Project (2007), Pew Internet & American Life Project (2007), Financial Times
(September 20, 2006)
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 3
inflection points
driving the Mobile business
THINGS
50 B
PEOPLE
5.0 B
Digital Society
Sustainable World
Personal
Mobile
Inflection
points
Global
Connectivity
1875
1900
Source: Ericsson
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 4
PLACES ~0.5 B
1925
1950
1975
2000
2025
50 billion connections 2020
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 5
Mobile data Growth......
T o t a l ( U L + D L ) t r a f f i c ( T B /m o n t h )
200000
180000
160000
140000
Voice
Speech
120000
100000
80000
Packet
60000
40000
20000
0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10
Source: Ericsson Measurements in Global Networks
(DVB-H, Mobile WiMax, M2M and WiFi traffic not included)
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 6
This slide contains forward looking statements
Mobile Broadband Speed evolution
2014
2010
LTE Advanced
Radio Systems
2009
Peak rate
~50 Mbps
~150 Mbps
~1000 Mbps
Typical user rate downlink
5-30 Mbps
10-100 Mbps
Operator dependent
Typical user rate uplink
1-10 Mbps
5-50 Mbps
Operator dependent
Excellent path to even higher speeds
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 7
One Family – New Generations
Start LTE services in selected areas and
continuously increase coverage
Provide nationwide Mobile
broadband coverage with
EDGE and HSPA
LTE
EDGE
HSPA
LTE
HSPA
LTE
LTE
Seamless network enables
transparency towards end-users
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 8
Time
Towards 50 billion 2020
- Subscribers => Subscriptions => Devices => Aggregated ”things”
This slide contains forward looking statements
8000
› US passed Japan as largest
mobile data market
› US, Japan and Korea are
largest 3G markets
› AT&T, NTT DoCoMo and
Koreans are largest HSPA
players
› China, US, India and Japan
will be largest 3G markets
by 2014
7000
Reported Subscriptions (million)
› Asia Pacific the voice leader
6000
5000
3GPP
family
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
Source: Internal Ericsson
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
LTE
TD-SCDMA
Other
WCDMA/HSPA
Mobile WiMAX
GSM/GPRS/EDGE
CDMA
Harmonized spectrum is the key mass market enabler
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 9
TeliaSonera
– world first Commercial LTE
› 40Mbs Commercial launch
Dec 14, 2009
Downlink Throughput Stockholm
Independent Consumer Broadband Evaluation Site
– Initially Stockholm city+
100
– HSPA fallback; Dual mode
device
90
20-95 Mb/s
80
20MHz
70
– 25 Swedish cities end ’10
Mbps
– Customers love it!
60
50
40
› ~95% * of end user download
speeds between 35-95Mbs
*Based on independent testing site
30
20
1 km
10
0
-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 10
2
4
6
8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28
SINR
Who benefits from the traffic
growth?
Beneficiaries:
Internet Players
P2P users
Media Players
Enterprise
Consumers
Advertisers
Government
Source: Yankee group- Sep-09
Telecom Traditional
Business
More Equipment and Spectrum Required to Realise Benefits
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 11
Current spectrum
may not be enough for IMT after year 2015
Predicted spectrum requirements by the year 2020 for IMT
ƒ may suggest a inconsistency of the order of 1000 MHz in the timeframe 2015 – 2020
ƒ subject to traffic and subscriptions, and national circumstances
Region 1
User
demand
setting
Predicted
total
(MHz)
Identified
(MHz)
Low
1 280
693
High
1 720
693
Region 2
Net additional
(MHz)
Region 3
Identified
(MHz)
Net additional
(MHz)
Identified Net additional
(MHz)
(MHz)
587
723
557
749
531
1 027
723
997
749
971
NOTE – Prediction based on one network deployment.
Reference: ITU CPM Report to WRC-07 and Report ITU-R M.2078
Support needed to achieve the goals at ITU WRC-16
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 12
Spectrum for IMT;
a long term business
”2G”
1990
”3G”
2000
”4G”
2010
2020
WARC-92 (”Core” / PCS band)
WRC-2000 (”Extension” band)
2.3 GHz (China), AWS
WRC-07 (3400 – 3600 MHz,
700 / 800 MHz)
WRC-16
› Spectrum is a key asset and decisions need to be forward looking:
– WARC-92: the “Core” band, 1850 – 2025, and 2110 – 2170 MHz
– WRC-97: no IMT spectrum identified
– WRC-2000: “Extension” band 2500 – 2690 MHz, (2300 – 2400 MHz)
– WRC-03: no IMT spectrum identified
– WRC-07: 2300 – 2400 MHz, 3400 – 3600 MHz and 700 / 800 MHz
– WRC-12: no IMT spectrum will be identified; but AI 8.2 needs to be addressed
– WRC-16 : more mobile broadband spectrum for IMT will be needed
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 13
Why is Spectrum <1GHz so important?
Key for cost effective MBB rollout
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 14
CEPT Decision ECC/DEC/(05)05
Harmonising LTE Spectrum in 2.6 Ghz
Implementing bands of 2 x 70 MHz
for FDD Implementing a band of 50
MHz for TDD
Consideration for the need for
protection between FDD and TDD
usages
2.5 GHz
2.62 GHz
2.57 GHz
FDD Uplink
TDD
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 15
TDD
TDD
TDD
2.69 GHz
FDD Downlink
TDD
TDD
Illustrative Not To Scale
Create More Spectrum
Without breaking the laws of Physics
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 16
National Security and Public
Safety
Aid in policing with
Specific solutions
Provide emergency
communications
Improve Border Control
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 17
Deliver government
secure
communications
NSPS - Commercial systems are
superior
› Far easier to coordinate non NSPS
assets
› Communication Appropriate solutions
(PTT)
› Much Cheaper (per indiv)
› Highly available networks 99.999
typical
› High level of coverage for most NSPS
requirements
› Security through SIMSEC assured
› Priority of service possible at any time
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 18
Commercial Open Technology
3G/GSM Network
How to create Spectrum
› Harmonise for the greater good
› Service and Technology
Neutrality (allows refarming)
› Have NSPS critically review their
spectrum and service needs.
› Even in disaster situations,
commercial networks are
probably more reliable and
flexible than proprietary ones.
Keep the big picture in mind
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 19
The Telecom Industry is key to
enhancing every other industry
› Broadband is ‘tipping’
– Delivering benefits to society both economically and socially
– Ultimately for the mass market, Mobile Broadband will
dominate
› Mainstream technology always more cost effective
– 3GPP (HSPA/LTE) 90% of Mobile Broadband Market
– Other technologies will play niche roles
› Globally harmonized spectrum to allow mainstream
technologies
– Full 2x60 MHz allocated at 2.1 GHz (HSPA)
– TDD globally aligned at 2.3 GHz (LTE)
– FDD and TDD in IMT extension band at 2.6 GHz
(HSPA&LTE)
› You can ’create’ more spectrum
– It’s painful, but keep the big picture in mind
– Consider delivering NSPS over commercial networks
Mainstream technology and frequency allocation key to close the Digital Divide
Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 20
Q&A