ITu-D Cairo 13 – 15 December Where is the growth and what do we need to do about it? Jeremy Foster, Director of Government and INdustry Relations, RMEA Outline › Broadband is ‘tipping’ › Delivering Mobile Broadband › Spectrum Challenge › Create spectrum – (and don’t break the laws of physics) › Conclusions Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 2 The “digital natives” A new generation is emerging 10,000 hours of mobile phone use MySpace/ YouTube Different expectations about work and play 250,000 emails, IM, and SMS Technologically literate 5,000 hours of video game playing 3,500 hours of online social networking Constantly connected Sharing/ Blogging Content creators and multi-taskers Source: The Digital Natives Project (2007), Pew Internet & American Life Project (2007), Financial Times (September 20, 2006) Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 3 inflection points driving the Mobile business THINGS 50 B PEOPLE 5.0 B Digital Society Sustainable World Personal Mobile Inflection points Global Connectivity 1875 1900 Source: Ericsson Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 4 PLACES ~0.5 B 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 50 billion connections 2020 Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 5 Mobile data Growth...... T o t a l ( U L + D L ) t r a f f i c ( T B /m o n t h ) 200000 180000 160000 140000 Voice Speech 120000 100000 80000 Packet 60000 40000 20000 0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 07 07 07 07 08 08 08 08 09 09 09 09 10 Source: Ericsson Measurements in Global Networks (DVB-H, Mobile WiMax, M2M and WiFi traffic not included) Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 6 This slide contains forward looking statements Mobile Broadband Speed evolution 2014 2010 LTE Advanced Radio Systems 2009 Peak rate ~50 Mbps ~150 Mbps ~1000 Mbps Typical user rate downlink 5-30 Mbps 10-100 Mbps Operator dependent Typical user rate uplink 1-10 Mbps 5-50 Mbps Operator dependent Excellent path to even higher speeds Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 7 One Family – New Generations Start LTE services in selected areas and continuously increase coverage Provide nationwide Mobile broadband coverage with EDGE and HSPA LTE EDGE HSPA LTE HSPA LTE LTE Seamless network enables transparency towards end-users Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 8 Time Towards 50 billion 2020 - Subscribers => Subscriptions => Devices => Aggregated ”things” This slide contains forward looking statements 8000 › US passed Japan as largest mobile data market › US, Japan and Korea are largest 3G markets › AT&T, NTT DoCoMo and Koreans are largest HSPA players › China, US, India and Japan will be largest 3G markets by 2014 7000 Reported Subscriptions (million) › Asia Pacific the voice leader 6000 5000 3GPP family 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Source: Internal Ericsson 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LTE TD-SCDMA Other WCDMA/HSPA Mobile WiMAX GSM/GPRS/EDGE CDMA Harmonized spectrum is the key mass market enabler Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 9 TeliaSonera – world first Commercial LTE › 40Mbs Commercial launch Dec 14, 2009 Downlink Throughput Stockholm Independent Consumer Broadband Evaluation Site – Initially Stockholm city+ 100 – HSPA fallback; Dual mode device 90 20-95 Mb/s 80 20MHz 70 – 25 Swedish cities end ’10 Mbps – Customers love it! 60 50 40 › ~95% * of end user download speeds between 35-95Mbs *Based on independent testing site 30 20 1 km 10 0 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 10 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 SINR Who benefits from the traffic growth? Beneficiaries: Internet Players P2P users Media Players Enterprise Consumers Advertisers Government Source: Yankee group- Sep-09 Telecom Traditional Business More Equipment and Spectrum Required to Realise Benefits Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 11 Current spectrum may not be enough for IMT after year 2015 Predicted spectrum requirements by the year 2020 for IMT may suggest a inconsistency of the order of 1000 MHz in the timeframe 2015 – 2020 subject to traffic and subscriptions, and national circumstances Region 1 User demand setting Predicted total (MHz) Identified (MHz) Low 1 280 693 High 1 720 693 Region 2 Net additional (MHz) Region 3 Identified (MHz) Net additional (MHz) Identified Net additional (MHz) (MHz) 587 723 557 749 531 1 027 723 997 749 971 NOTE – Prediction based on one network deployment. Reference: ITU CPM Report to WRC-07 and Report ITU-R M.2078 Support needed to achieve the goals at ITU WRC-16 Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 12 Spectrum for IMT; a long term business ”2G” 1990 ”3G” 2000 ”4G” 2010 2020 WARC-92 (”Core” / PCS band) WRC-2000 (”Extension” band) 2.3 GHz (China), AWS WRC-07 (3400 – 3600 MHz, 700 / 800 MHz) WRC-16 › Spectrum is a key asset and decisions need to be forward looking: – WARC-92: the “Core” band, 1850 – 2025, and 2110 – 2170 MHz – WRC-97: no IMT spectrum identified – WRC-2000: “Extension” band 2500 – 2690 MHz, (2300 – 2400 MHz) – WRC-03: no IMT spectrum identified – WRC-07: 2300 – 2400 MHz, 3400 – 3600 MHz and 700 / 800 MHz – WRC-12: no IMT spectrum will be identified; but AI 8.2 needs to be addressed – WRC-16 : more mobile broadband spectrum for IMT will be needed Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 13 Why is Spectrum <1GHz so important? Key for cost effective MBB rollout Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 14 CEPT Decision ECC/DEC/(05)05 Harmonising LTE Spectrum in 2.6 Ghz Implementing bands of 2 x 70 MHz for FDD Implementing a band of 50 MHz for TDD Consideration for the need for protection between FDD and TDD usages 2.5 GHz 2.62 GHz 2.57 GHz FDD Uplink TDD Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 15 TDD TDD TDD 2.69 GHz FDD Downlink TDD TDD Illustrative Not To Scale Create More Spectrum Without breaking the laws of Physics Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 16 National Security and Public Safety Aid in policing with Specific solutions Provide emergency communications Improve Border Control Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 17 Deliver government secure communications NSPS - Commercial systems are superior › Far easier to coordinate non NSPS assets › Communication Appropriate solutions (PTT) › Much Cheaper (per indiv) › Highly available networks 99.999 typical › High level of coverage for most NSPS requirements › Security through SIMSEC assured › Priority of service possible at any time Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 18 Commercial Open Technology 3G/GSM Network How to create Spectrum › Harmonise for the greater good › Service and Technology Neutrality (allows refarming) › Have NSPS critically review their spectrum and service needs. › Even in disaster situations, commercial networks are probably more reliable and flexible than proprietary ones. Keep the big picture in mind Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 19 The Telecom Industry is key to enhancing every other industry › Broadband is ‘tipping’ – Delivering benefits to society both economically and socially – Ultimately for the mass market, Mobile Broadband will dominate › Mainstream technology always more cost effective – 3GPP (HSPA/LTE) 90% of Mobile Broadband Market – Other technologies will play niche roles › Globally harmonized spectrum to allow mainstream technologies – Full 2x60 MHz allocated at 2.1 GHz (HSPA) – TDD globally aligned at 2.3 GHz (LTE) – FDD and TDD in IMT extension band at 2.6 GHz (HSPA&LTE) › You can ’create’ more spectrum – It’s painful, but keep the big picture in mind – Consider delivering NSPS over commercial networks Mainstream technology and frequency allocation key to close the Digital Divide Ericsson Internal | 2010-09-29 | Page 20 Q&A