No.54 September 1, 2002 Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Michio KITAMURA NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Michio KITAMURA I Reconstruction of Commercial and Public Infrastructure Through Ubiquitous Networks II Case Study for New Services Offered via a Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure III Economic Impact of Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure IV Building Platforms for the Promotion of a Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure V Measures for Spreading Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure 1. Reconstructing the commercial and public infrastructure through ubiquitous networks will be a major challenge that offers the potential for promoting the economic rebirth of Japan by initiating structural changes. As we propose in this report, the commercial and public infrastructure that could be realized by ubiquitous networks essentially consists of three strata: first, ubiquitous networks themselves; second, ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure platforms; and third, applications for ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure. 2. Looking forward, we believe that ubiquitous networks should be sufficiently broad-based to ensure applications offering “ubiquitous health and security concierge systems,” “ubiquitous automobile network systems,” and “ubiquitous education and learning systems.” The development of such systems constitutes an important element of the process, as they would contribute to structural reforms in terms of medical care, social welfare, social capital such as roads, employment and employee training and the enhancement of skills. 3. The introduction and spread of ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications will have a major economic impact. If only focused on major applications such as health and security functions, automobiles and ubiquitous education and learning, we estimate that they could generate approximately ¥10 trillion in economic demand, as well as having various profound economic effects on society as a whole. 4. In order to promote the development and formation of ubiquitous system applications, platforms to support them are needed. In the future, “ubiquitous personal terminals (UTs),” “ubiquitous chips (UCs)” and “ubiquitous service exchanges (UXs)” must be developed and widely spread to achieve this in Japan. 5. Measures to achieve a wider use and acceptance of ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications and platforms might include (1) a private-sector approach for building and managing the proposed system, (2) structural innovation within each of the specific considerations, and (3) developing systems and applications based on time-transition scenarios. Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 1 NRI Papers No. 54 I September 1, 2002 2 Reconstruction and Structural Reform Through Ubiquitous Networks Reconstruction of Commercial and Public Infrastructure Through Ubiquitous Networks These three types of innovative business models based on ubiquitous networks (concierge systems, knowledge asset management systems, and wide-area measurement systems) not only allow for increased business opportunities in the private sector, but also greatly contribute to a structural reform of commercial and public infrastructure in the public sector and the boundary area that crosses both the private and public sectors. Ubiquitous networks are seen as one of the last resorts in re-vitalizing the inherent strengths of Japan and enabling them to reach their full potential. The proliferation of such innovative networking applications can be accelerated by introducing them into various ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure essential to public life. With the effectiveness of commercial and public infrastructure in Japan now coming for increased questioning, the onus is on us to bring about structural changes in these systems. In this sense, it will be a major challenge for us to drastically change the commercial and public infrastructure by utilizing ubiquitous networks, which will lead us to shift directly into gear for the rejuvenation of Japan. 1 Essential Elements of Ubiquitous Networks It is already possible in today’s world to enjoy networking by using any of a wide range of terminals, including desktop or mobile PCs, mobile phones and TV sets that are already available practically anywhere. These widespread and widely accessible networks are referred to as “ubiquitous networks.” A ubiquitous network can be defined as follows: 1) It consists of a wide variety of networks that offer such attributes as “broadband (high-speed largecapacity circuits) capabilities,” “mobile characteristics” and “continuous dedicated access” via any mode or medium, such as stationary or mobile terminals, wired or wireless systems, and telecom or broadcasting, etc. 2) It is capable of supporting any IT (information technology) equipment, such as mobile phones, PDAs (hand-held personal digital assistants), car navigation terminals, and consumer information appliances, as well as desktop computers and mobile PCs that are connected or networked with each other via a barrier-free (access friendly) interface. 3) It thereby creates an environment in which digital data can be exchanged in an interactive and seamless manner, with more freedom and comfort than ever. 3 New Commercial and Public Infrastructure Through Ubiquitous Networking: An Overall View The hierarchy of ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure consists of the following three major layers (see Figure 1). The first is ubiquitous networks that constitute the basis of telecommunications networks to support commercial and public infrastructure. The second layer is formed by the “platforms for the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure.” Each platform provides the common basis for both the software and hardware necessary to enable a wide range of ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications (third layer) to proliferate and be marketed for business purposes. Looking forward, we believe that such platforms for the development and spread of ubiquitous networks will comprise such functional elements as ubiquitous personal terminals (UTs), ubiquitous chips (UCs) and ubiquitous services exchanges (UXs). This will be explained in detail in Chapter IV. The third layer includes applications for the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure. These are individual commercial and public infrastructure (i.e., services) in various fields where ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure platforms are utilized. Applications for the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure are classified into two categories according to the targets that are subject to services and In particular, if IPv6 (Internet Protocol Version 6)— which allows any equipment connected to the network to have its own address—becomes the standard protocol, we will be able to construct innovative commercial and public infrastructure. Ubiquitous networks are able to foster three key factors that would promote a social revolution. These include: (1) exchanging and sharing visible knowledge, such as knowledge managed not only as text or symbols but also visual images and video; (2) an increased strength of community; and (3) expanded capabilities for sensing and tracking. Utilizing these key elements properly, we will identify three major types of innovative business models: “Concierge business models aimed at consumer markets,” “knowledge asset management business models focused on corporate users,” and “wide-area measurement systems targeting public service fields.” (For details, see “Innovative Business Models in the Era of Ubiquitous Networks,” NRI Papers, No. 49, June 1, 2002.) Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 2 NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 Figure 1. Overview of the Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure Commercial and public infrastructure for human activities Applications for the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure Commercial and public infrastructure for the environment Ubiquitous health and security concierge systems Ubiquitous food history/safety checking systems Ubiquitous automobile network systems Ubiquitous national land monitoring systems Ubiquitous education and learning systems Ubiquitous forest conservation and management systems Ubiquitous vvv systems Ubiquitous xxx systems ... ... Ubiquitous yyy systems Ubiquitous zzz systems Ubiquitous personal terminals (UTs) Platforms for the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure Ubiquitous services exchanges (UXs) Ubiquitous chips (UCs) Ubiquitous network Ubiquitous network (1) Broadband, (2) Mobile terminals, (3) Dedicated access, (4) IPv6, (5) Barrier-free interface Note: IPv6 = Internet Protocol Version 6. management: namely, the commercial and public infrastructure for human activities and those for the environment. The former envisions individuals and their relevant activities as the target at whom such services are directed, while the latter involves the ecology that surrounds human beings and the manmade world. Between those that now exist and those that can only be envisioned, there are an unlimited number of ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications. Those for human activities, for instance, include ubiquitous health and security concierge systems, ubiquitous automobile network systems and ubiquitous education and learning systems, all of which utilize ubiquitous networking. The environmental applications might include ubiquitous food history/safety checking systems and ubiquitous national land monitoring systems. The proposed development processes and their significance will now be explained by reviewing some typical cases below. services for our everyday lives—very much similar to what is offered by a concierge in a hotel who provides appropriate advice and suggestions in a comprehensive manner according to the situation (see Table 1). More specifically, the system may provide such services as mental and physical care services (such as health maintenance, management and support to care for physically or mentally challenged persons), as well as residential and environmental care services such as crime and fire prevention. These specific services are variously combined and incorporated into a concierge service that is offered by the system. It is possible to assume such concierge services as healthcare or life care, nursing care for elderly parents living alone some distance from their children, or for physically challenged individuals. The basic flow of the offered services is as follows. The first step includes installing a sensor to detect individual actions in a house, or alarm equipment that is activated when an accident occurs. It also includes such arrangements as temporarily fitting individuals with body sensors to monitor health conditions, such as a bracelet-type blood pressure sensor. The installation of these sensing devices enables information to be monitored about the indoor environment—anywhere, anytime and whenever necessary. The collected information is then automatically transmitted to service providers via widely used simple telecommunications devices such as ubiquitous personal terminals through the ubiquitous network. The service provider in turn offers concierge-like services such as appropriate diagnoses, warnings and/or advice according to the information received. At present, several enterprises are already providing some of these remote management services in the field II Case Study for New Services Offered via a Ubiquitous Commercialand Public and Infrastructure 1 Ubiquitous Health and Security Concierge Systems (1) Summary of the expected commercial and public infrastructure Ubiquitous health and security concierge services refer to a system that offers various health and safety related Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 3 NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 of welfare and healthcare management that are targeted at individuals in their homes. However, the ubiquitous health and security concierge services differ considerably from existing programs in that the former are offered as part of an integrated sensing system using ubiquitous personal terminals as the core elements to receive various information on an integrated basis from a wide range of sensors and detection devices. Moreover, it also differs in that the new service system provides us with a human service interface that utilizes ubiquitous service exchanges. For road administrators, the ubiquitous systems will measure traffic volume and physical conditions on the road, thus assisting them in maintaining the roads in proper condition. A particularly innovative example of this is the ubiquitous road pricing system, which provides the location and other information on all vehicles equipped with a ubiquitous personal terminal. Thus a road pricing system that allows tolls to be adjusted in accordance with traffic volume or congestion can be comprehensively and accurately implemented for all manner of applicable roads. At the same time, a variety of information and entertainment services can be offered to drivers by private service providers. This would include traffic or roadside information and vehicle surveillance. It should be noted that some of the above service systems are already partially available through ITS (Intelligent Transportation Systems) applications. But the ubiquitous automobile network system differs from ITS in the following points. ITS is based on the road infrastructure being equipped with a large number of sensors that function to track vehicles, and serve to deliver the collected information to the traffic control center. The installation costs of such systems are substantial. In contrast, ubiquitous automobile network-systems are based on ubiquitous personal terminals (capable of telecommunications, sensing, personal identification) that are mounted on the vehicles, thus requiring no major new investments for this specific purpose. Further, ITS provides information in a uniform manner regardless of any differences in vehicle types or passenger attributes. Conversely, ubiquitous automobile network systems are able to recognize and identify a car via the driver, thereby making it possible to offer a wide variety of services on the basis of known individual attributes. (2) Significant features of the expected commercial and public infrastructure The proliferation of ubiquitous health and security concierge systems will contribute to the reform of medical care and welfare systems in the following areas. First, it will allow us to monitor individual health conditions on a regular basis as a large number of people use the home health-check services. In addition, the utilization of this information will enable us to determine and assess the target population segments for healthcare services set by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare in its National Health Movement for the 21st Century. Second, it will enable a broader dissemination of daily health maintenance management as well as disease prevention measures to gain greater currency among the population. This will work to expand the healthy-state lifespan (the human lifespan minus the period spent disabled with sickness or injury) to be substantially extended through the greater usage of health maintenance management services. The results will have a positive effect on reducing financial deficits stemming from the increased burden of social security expenditures, which include health and medical care costs. Third, it will also enable the establishment of an economical and reliable system for supporting elderly parents living alone and concierge care insurance services, which will improve the quality of such services. For example, the new service system will enable us to monitor elderly parents who live alone at considerable distances from their children. Accordingly, it will make available highly attentive, concierge-like services. (2) Significant features of the expected commercial and civic infrastructure Ubiquitous automobile network systems will also contribute to overall structural reform in Japan in terms of a collaborative relationship and coexistence between automobiles and the environment, as well as in efficient road construction. First, it will enable us to accurately determine traffic volume for individual roads by tracking all vehicles using a given road. This means that it becomes easy to carry out ex post facto assessments of road construction data, such the extent to which a constructed road is actually being utilized. Previously, such assessments could only be made only with great difficulty. In addition, systems like this would enable us to alleviate the problems of traffic congestion and environmental pollution by introducing flexible ubiquitous road pricing systems on certain roads. 2 Ubiquitous Automobile Network Systems (1) Summary of the expected commercial and public infrastructure Ubiquitous automobile network systems offer a comprehensive link connecting vehicles, drivers and road administrators on a real-time basis via the network. As such, they assess road conditions as well as deliver the collected information to the road administrators and drivers (see Table 1). Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 4 NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 Table 1. Major Services Provided by Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure Applications Applications for the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure Ubiquitous health and security concierge systems Major services and contents Mental and physical care services Residential environment care services Ubiquitous automobile network systems Service for drivers Service for road-related management Ubiquitous education and learning systems Services for learners Health maintenance and management • Physical checkups at home (medical checkups), healthcare for exercising, automatic analysis of meals and providing advice Support and care for physically and mentally challenged persons • Monitoring physical condition, remote room monitoring Emergency care • Emergency notifications (auto-sensing type), emergency notifications (manual type) Support for transporting physically and mentally challenged persons • Ambulant navigation, assistance in transporting disabled persons Residential environment care services • Indoor environment control, room temperature and humidity control, indoor nighttime-guidance systems Crime and fire prevention • Indoor and outdoor surveillance Utilizing spatial and temporal information • Advanced navigation systems, auto-alarms to prevent traffic violations, guidance for roads and facilities Utilizing vehicle information • Monitoring and warning of vehicle conditions Automatic toll/fee collection systems • Collecting tolls on roads, collecting various fees Providing network content • Advertising geared to driver attributes, delivering contents such as music and video Emergency support • Car-theft warning and prevention systems, traffic accident notifications Utilizing spatial and temporal information • Real-time monitoring of traffic conditions, tolls on roads, management of traffic demand and guidance, prosecuting traffic violations Utilizing vehicle information • Monitoring road conditions via vehicles, monitoring weather conditions via vehicles Offering learning programs • Participating in qualifications-training programs offered by companies, universities and other schools (in the form of lectures, tutoring services, self-teaching, or examinations) Support for learning and qualifications training • Management of personal academic records, tutoring services, Q&A services participation in a wide range of educational programs (training, course programs, mock exams, etc.) and prepare for various qualification examinations (see Table 1). Individual users are able to flexibly participate in any educational program they desire by using a ubiquitous personal terminal from anywhere and at any time. Under this system, the user’s academic and/or training records are stored in a databank through the user identification module that is part of each ubiquitous personal terminal, thereby allowing the participants to temporarily suspend or resume participation in any program, receive suggestions for intensive learning in a subject or field in which the participant has performed poorly, and to take qualification exams as well as to be notified of the results. Moreover, it will also be possible to learn through the program in an interactive manner via the ubiquitous personal terminal, and to be Further, the system facilitates the measuring of road deterioration and quantifies the necessity of repairs by using vehicles equipped with sensors that monitor driving and road conditions (such as vibration, potholes, etc.) in terms of both physical and chemical parameters. Accordingly, it becomes possible to achieve increased efficiency in road maintenance and repairs, thereby reducing the relevant costs. 3 Ubiquitous Education and Learning Systems (1) Summary of the expected commercial and public infrastructure Ubiquitous education and learning systems are intended to provide a network linking individuals, enterprises, universities and schools in order to enable Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 5 NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 the potential market for each of the major ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications that are highlighted in this report. These proposed ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications have not yet been materialized. Therefore, an estimation of demand needs to be made on the basis of assumptions about the services to be offered. For this purpose, CVM (contingent valuation method) analysis is most suitably used to extrapolate such demand. This method first measures the willingness-to-pay, which attempts to determine how much people would be willing to pay for services (whose nature is still not fully defined) related to maintaining the environment and scenic surroundings, and to translate this into a quantitative but simulated market value. An actual questionnaire survey was conducted (sampling some 100 individuals with diverse demographic attributes grouped into panels of ten members each) to collect the basic data necessary for assessing the demand for ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications. Questions included “How much is your household willing to pay monthly for the envisioned ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure services?” and the responses were then collated (see Table 2). Based on the survey responses, we extrapolated the potential total demand that can be expected in Japan. The results revealed a very large estimated demand of approximately ¥4.2 trillion for ubiquitous health and security concierge systems, ¥1.9 trillion for ubiquitous automobile network systems, and ¥3.6 trillion for ubiquitous education and learning systems. It should be noted that no assumption has been made that individuals need pay for the three types of services mentioned above simultaneously. In this context, it does not make sense to forecast total demand by simply aggregating all the estimated amounts for each. Rather, the potential gross demand will likely not exceed a maximum of ¥10 trillion. offered Q&A practice and/or tutorial services— including one-on-one home tutoring. One of the major benefits inherent in ubiquitous education and learning systems is the availability of a wide range of learning program options, as well as the ability to compare options and programs in selecting the optimal course of study. This is because all kinds of learning programs would be open to everyone through ubiquitous education and learning systems. These offerings would include training courses provided by manpower outsourcing and recruitment companies, lectures offered at colleges and graduate schools, qualifications-focused courses and mock exams planned by professional schools, as well as curricula and courses for continuing education. (2) Significant features of the expected commercial and public infrastructure Ubiquitous education and learning systems will greatly contribute to employment mobility and employee training in Japan in terms of the following. First of all, the system facilitates increased employability and practical working skills because of the expanded availability of methods, opportunities and information gathering procedures that are necessary for individuals to develop their capabilities. Beyond simply endowing us with knowledge, ubiquitous networks make it possible to provide educational programs to disseminate knowledge, expertise and practical skills, such as remote simulation-type programs teaching equipment operation that cannot be easily developed on an explicit pattern. People are able to develop their skills in a more practical format by participating in these programs. In addition, it also becomes possible for various qualification exams to verify the proficiency of the applicant’s knowledge, expertise and skills in addition to testing one’s explicit knowledge. Second, various data concerning people’s learning behavior that are stored (such as how promptly a program has been completed) will be useful in more efficiently implementing government employment policies. This would include existing education or training subsidy schemes and various government-sponsored programs. 2 Huge Economic Effects Besides creating the potential demand mentioned above, ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications will yield substantial economic effects including decreased public spending and social costs. While it is difficult to specifically identify and quantify such effects, some examples are presented below. The proliferation of ubiquitous health and security concierge services will improve public life and convenience, thereby permitting a lengthening of the healthy-state lifespan. This will result in saving some ¥1.9 trillion annually in medical care costs. According to one assessment, moreover, traffic congestion now costs ¥4.9 trillion in lost economic opportunities in the Tokyo metropolitan area alone. If a III Economic Impact of Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure 1 Large-Scale Potential Demand It is assumed that most of ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications will be operated in the private sector. This requires a large demand to make them feasible. Accordingly, we have estimated Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 6 NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 Table 2. Results from CVM Questionnaire: Willingness-to-Pay for Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure Applications Monthly spending range per household Ubiquitous health and security lconcierge services Number of responses Ubiquitous automobile network services Response ratio (%) Number of responses Zero 5 4.6 10 ¥1,000 or less 1 0.9 ¥1,001 - ¥2,000 8 7.3 Response ratio (%) Ubiquitous education and learning services Number of responses Response ratio (%) 9.2 10 9.2 10 9.2 3 2.8 17 15.6 8 7.3 ¥2,001 - ¥3,000 9 8.3 16 14.7 7 6.4 ¥3,001 - ¥4,000 22 20.2 21 19.3 16 14.7 ¥4,001 - ¥5,000 6 5.5 3 2.8 0 0 ¥5,001- ¥10,000 32 29.4 21 19.3 35 32.1 ¥10,001 - ¥20,000 17 15.6 10 9.2 22 20.2 9 8.3 1 0.9 8 7.3 100 109 100 109 ¥20,001 or more Total 109 Arithmetic average ¥7,252/month ¥3,438/month 100 ¥6,610/month Notes: (1) Response to the question: “How much is your household willing to pay monthly for the envisioned ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure service?” (2) CVM = contingent valuation method. This means that it is necessary to develop such a new standardized terminal called ubiquitous personal terminals (UTs) that are suited to the characteristics of the ubiquitous network in order to allow the proliferation of ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications. The two basic concepts of the terminals are as follows. The first is that the terminal should be provided with the basic functions of ubiquitous networks; specifically, offering broadband capabilities, mobility, dedicated access, a barrier-free interface, and IPv6. The second concept is that such functions are provided modularly by means of open system architecture, and that a standardized protocol is adopted throughout the system without exception. In particular, the modular and open approach is most important in flexibly responding to technological advances and changes in user IT environments. According to this concept, various terminals and functions could be realized in a competitive fashion, and then be set in place on a stage where a wide variety of commercial and public infrastructure options can be developed. ubiquitous road pricing system is materialized by introducing ubiquitous automobile network systems, a positive economic effect of approximately ¥2.5 trillion is expected to be generated—assuming a 50-percent reduction in traffic congestion. IV Building Platforms for the Promotion of a Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure 1 Development and Spread of Ubiquitous Personal Terminals (1) Basic concept of the ubiquitous personal terminal In order to allow ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications to proliferate, it is essential that the bulk of the people actually use the proposed applications. Accordingly, one of the prerequisites is that ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications are superior in terms of convenience of use. This would be achieved by a sophisticated interface being installed in the relevant terminals. A precondition for spreading applications is that the relevant market presents a high level of commercial feasibility for those service providers expected to participate in such businesses. In this context, it is necessary to reduce the R&D and operational costs by achieving standardized configurations and capabilities for the new system. An example of the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure that can be standardized is a terminal serving as an interface between the users and the system itself. (2) Modular configuration of ubiquitous personal terminals The modular configuration of ubiquitous personal terminals constructed according to these concepts is separated into two categories, known as the “generalpurpose module” and the “designated-purpose module.” A general-purpose module that forms the framework of ubiquitous personal terminals consists of the following five elements (see Figure 2). 1) Multi-access network module The multi-access network module includes a versatile function that is responsive to a wide Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 7 NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 Figure 2. Concept of Ubiquitous Personal Terminals (UTs) and Ubiquitous Chips (UCs) Ubiquitous personal terminals (UTs) Designated-purpose module Energy supply module Data storage module General-purpose module Multi-access network module (e.g. software-defined radio technology) Application module User identity module (ubiquitous UIM) OS module Sensing module Input system module Display module Ubiquitous chip (UC) Consumer products Location ID Vital signs (body temperature, blood pressure, etc.) Automobile Environmental sensing Human activities Environment • RFID (tag, label, sticker, etc), • Sensing device • RFID (tag, label, sticker, etc), • Sensing device Heath parameters (body fat, glucose level, etc) Home appliances Pyroelectric sensing Buildings Animals and plants Infrastructure Notes: RFID = radio frequency identification; UIM = user identity module. with sensing functions to collect information such as temperatures or vibrations, and a GPS (global positioning system) function. variety of networks such as broadcasting, ordinary telecommunications, and peer-to-peer (P2P) communications. We assume at present that this would mean the SDR (software-defined radio) system that is attracting attention as a multi-access network, as well as applications that are responsive to IPv6. 4) Application module The application module has an autonomous agent function, which allows the terminal’s indication or display mode to change in response to variations in user needs (such as befitting senior citizens or children). It also includes API (application program interface) capabilities. 2) User identity module The user identity module functions to identify the user of the terminal. More specifically, we envision the utilization of a ubiquitous UIM (user identity module) in which, for example, a driver’s license is integrated with the UIM device in a highly sophisticated manner, which then serves as an ignition/actuation key for the car. Furthermore, it could be combined with fingerprint identification technology as a basis for an individual identification function provided by a ubiquitous network. 5) OS module The OS module is the terminal operating system that controls the various multiple modules with their independent functions. Accordingly, it is expected that these modular functions when combined in various configurations would allow the terminal devices to adopt a wide variety of forms (shapes). Looking a few years ahead, we envision that the typical ubiquitous personal terminal would be one that combines the current models of mobile phones and PDAs into an integrated unit. 3) Sensing module The sensing module has an integrated function that includes automatically receiving information from external sensing devices, reading tag information like that of RFID (radio frequency identification) systems, a terminal that is additionally equipped One of the greatest potential benefits from such a ubiquitous personal terminal would be the ability to access Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 8 NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 food history and safety whereby ubiquitous personal terminals would replace barcode readers in monitoring detailed information concerning food history and safety that is stored in an RFID sticker affixed to all food items offered for sale. Furthermore, a micro RFID tag may be affixed to a patient’s body to avoid any mistakes in identification. At the same time, various types of advanced sensor technologies are also being developed. We are now seeing this equipment with sophisticated functions for monitoring a range of complicated information from the vital signs of human beings or the deterioration of concrete tunnels. Utilizing such defect information, we will be able to realize a variety of system applications such as, for instance, ubiquitous infrastructure monitoring systems. various services based on ubiquitous networks with nothing more than one’s own personal terminal unit. Thus we could use the terminal to access ubiquitous health and security concierge systems when at home, and also use the same hardware terminal for the ubiquitous automobile network systems when going out by car by mounting the terminal on the vehicle. Such benefits and convenience embody some of the most attractive features that the ubiquitous personal terminal system could provide. 2 Development and Spread of Ubiquitous Chips Ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications would allow sensing and measuring vital information concerning our bodies for the human-related systems, while they serve to detect conditions of synthetic and natural objects for the environment-related systems. Therefore, in order to bring ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications into broad use, the development and proliferation of various types of sensors and information storage media that could be attached to practically anything relevant to the system—whether human, synthetic and/or natural—must be developed. We refer to all of these devices by the generic name of a ubiquitous chip (UC). More specifically, ubiquitous chips consistof a RFID element and a sensing device. These tools will play a very important role in developing ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications. In particular, RFID could become a powerful platform. RFID is a system that enables an exchange of information by radio wave between a micro medium (such as tag, label, card) and a prompting device known as a reader. Its features would be low prices, superior durability, and the capability to store a relatively large volume of information. Systems based on RFID technology have rapidly become popular especially as management systems for production, distribution and sales. This is because they provide informational capabilities that are far superior to the conventional barcode label reader by simply affixing a tag or label to merchandised goods. Therefore it will become possible to construct an innovative commercial and public infrastructure by attaching such RFID devices to synthetic and natural objects everywhere. For example, drain and gas pipes buried underground may be provided with an RFID tag when they are newly laid or repaired, thereby accurately identifying the burying point as well as their service years. This would enable the development of an appropriate system for the maintenance and repair of infrastructure installations. Also it will become possible to provide a ubiquitous system for checking 3 Development and Proliferation of Ubiquitous Service Exchanges (1) Basic concept of ubiquitous service exchanges The third of our proposals entails a system of ubiquitous service exchanges (UXs). Essentially, a UX is a virtual place for linking service supply and demand functions together via ubiquitous applications. From the users’ point of view, a basic flow of services would be offered through such ubiquitous service exchanges. For example, users would be able to access a ubiquitous service exchange (i.e., contact center) via their ubiquitous personal terminals whenever they feel it necessary and tell an operator (or receptionist at a counter) about whatever service they desire. The operator then responds immediately if possible, or otherwise transfers the request to the appropriate consultation window or dedicated service providers at various reliable institutions. Users are able to communicate with such consultation counters or dedicated service providers, and may book the service if necessary or receive it immediately. (2) Configuration of functions for ubiquitous service exchanges The ubiquitous service exchange system consists of the following three functions. The first is the contact center function. This means that when accessing one of the desired services via ubiquitous personal terminals, the users will see an operator appearing on the display, who can respond immediately by providing face-to-face guidance onscreen, or otherwise transfer the request to the appropriate organization. This system offers four core features: (1) a type of “Handy-Andy first-aid window” that can offer any type of help; (2) a “person-friendly system” that serves the user via a person appearing on the display; (3) “24 hours-a-day/365 days-a-year service” that would be available for anybody at any time; and (4) “barrier-free Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 9 NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 based on a mechanism that stresses private-sector design and private-sector service. This focus needs to be based on the following five principles. service” that could be accessible by just pushing one button. The second element is its function as a marketplace. This works in such a manner that users are helped through the intermediary function in which the system functions to find the most suitable service provider from the registered list of dedicated service providers such as NPOs (non-profit organizations), SOHOs (small offices and home offices), administrative institutions and volunteers. An important feature of this function is the capability to link small units in service demand with similarly small units in service supply. For example, the service exchange function could eliminate an undesirable mismatching between demand and supply in terms of such things as welfare support services offered by local SOHOs and NPOs. The third is a service rating function. An operator at a ubiquitous service exchange reviews the quality and price of services offered by service providers registered with the ubiquitous service exchanges for the purpose of rating them, and then opens the review results to the public. The data necessary for such rating reviews are collected extensively from the actual users of the services. 1) A low-cost approach that requires no large investment for new construction or operational expenditures (saving capital investment). 2) Commercial feasibility when operated by companies in the private sector (commercially feasible). 3) Open system platforms for promoting competitive participation involving private business entities (competitive arena). 4) Providing services focused on benefiting the customer (customer-friendly). 5) Concept of customary rules that are applied for operating the commercial and public infrastructure (customary rules). The ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure will come into use on a broad and stable basis by keeping the above rules intact when designing and operating the system. For this purpose, the government is required to take the initiative by carrying out deregulation, and extending the concept of electronic government to include an electronic public infrastructure system. Further, the government needs to establish a nationwide vision and provide support to R&D and standardization activities for the development and proliferation of ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications. V Measures for Spreading Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure 1 Developing an Approach Based on the Private Sector 2 Structural Innovation for Spreading the Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure To enable the effective proliferation of the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure, it is essential to bring the insight and dynamism often found in the private sector into areas that have long been dominated by state control. Conventionally, the government-led systems—known in Japanese as kansei-kan-ei (literally, government-designed and government-serving) or kansei-min-ei (governmentdesigned and private-sector-serving)—have played the primary roles in such public infrastructure as welfare and medical care, transportation, and personnel training. However, we have witnessed the limits and drawbacks as well as shortcomings of these systems in recent years. Examples include the draining of financial resources, extensive mismanagement, and decreased capabilities under the yoke of antiquated regulations to cope with changes in the social environment. In order to construct the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure applications and platforms that are expected in the future, it becomes important to adopt a private-sector approach to management and operations In addition to the approach that focuses on a system designed and served by the public sector, it is necessary to achieve the following structural innovations with adequate incentives to the users and providers in mind in order to spread the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure. (1) Structural innovations for the proliferation of ubiquitous health and security concierge systems One feature of the proposed system is that of monitoring and assessing a person’s health conditions on a regular and constant basis. This can be utilized effectively to develop and provide new medical insurance products in the private sector, including discounted insurance premiums according to one’s health status, and risk-specific medical insurance as is already seen in the case of automobile insurance. This means that policyholders will benefit from premium discounts for their medical insurance (rate reductions). And more specifically, the longer the individual Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 10 NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 adopted to examine an individual’s employability (e.g., knowledge, insight, know-how and skills useful for the areas of expertise). In addition, it is necessary to provide some benefits to those companies that proceed to employ personnel who developed their capabilities through the proposed ubiquitous education and learning systems. policyholder continues to maintain good health, the greater the benefits that will accrue. From the perspective of a medical institution, it may be effective and useful to construct a mechanism whereby the service providers or medical institutions are rewarded in accordance with the length of time the service user continues to enjoy good heath conditions by using the ubiquitous health maintenance service. Such systems will motivate the relevant medical institutions to offer better services to help people to maintain healthy lifestyles and good health in general. In order to realize these social systems, it is necessary to devise strict rules to control an individual’s personal health-related data, and simultaneously review the medical treatment fee to properly make any necessary adjustments. 3 Scenario for the Spread of the Ubiquitous Commercial and Public Infrastructure Taking all the above into consideration, we can develop the following scenarios for the spread of the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure. The first stage is to build the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure platform. In particular, the development and proliferation of ubiquitous personal terminals is most important. As already explained above, it is desirable that the platforms for the ubiquitous personal terminals be built and managed by the operators and providers in the private sector. However, it is necessary to first take a transitional step that promotes the proliferation of modular- and open-system architectures that offer various capabilities, and that also standardizes the basic protocol for those areas that could be shared by a number of companies. This should be done before attempting to kick-start the proposed systems by allowing spontaneous marketplace competition to occur. Such preparatory steps would allow the participating companies to cut R&D costs and shorten the lead-time for new products, thus resulting in lower prices. In order to promote modularized systems based on open architecture and provide the impetus for standardization, it is desirable that the relevant companies undertake R&D on a collaborative basis. This work may also be partially financed by the government. The financial resources used for this purpose may be made up by a decrease in future public spending (such as in public works and services) that can be expected because of the successful economic effects derived from the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure. The second stage is to provide a variety of applications for the ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure, together with enhancing the incentives to lead individual users to commit to the new system. For this purpose, it becomes important to devise mechanisms that could reduce the costs the users have to pay for conventional services, thereby reducing the total burden (which includes the price the user will pay for ubiquitous commercial and public infrastructure services). As already shown above in discussing the ubiquitous health and security concierge system, an example of this is the mechanism whereby premiums to be paid for medical insurance are lowered (charge (2) Structural innovations for the proliferation of ubiquitous automobile network systems In the process of achieving a broad proliferation of the proposed systems (especially for introducing the ubiquitous road pricing system), all vehicles need to be equipped with a ubiquitous personal terminal. We believe that most effective approach to attain the terminal installation is to integrate the driver’s license with a ubiquitous personal terminal UIM (user identity module). Information related to the driver’s license would be incorporated into the identifier module of the individual ubiquitous terminal that is then connected to the equipment mounted in the automobile, thereby permitting the driver to start the engine of the car. Moreover, for those who use mechanisms to monitor and warn of vehicle conditions based on the ubiquitous automobile network systems, we can envision a system in which such users will benefit from reduced costs for the compulsory vehicle inspections required in Japan. For example, the inspection of items known to be in good working condition due to automatic monitoring by vehicle monitoring systems could be postponed and/or the fees reduced accordingly. The adoption of these systems would require a review and revision of existing driver’s license schemes and appropriate changes in the regulatory automobile inspection regimen. (3) Structural innovation for the proliferation of ubiquitous education and learning systems To level the ground for the proliferation of ubiquitous education and learning systems, we can envision an environment that provides a seamless flow of manpower from skills development to employment. More specifically, in view of drawbacks in the current system under which officially qualified individuals are not necessarily assured of future employment, this newly envisioned system would provide for clear improvements. Specifically, more appropriate certificate and qualification examinations would be Using Ubiquitous Networks to Create New Services Based on the Commercial and Public Infrastructure Copyright 2002 by Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. 11 NRI Papers No. 54 September 1, 2002 applications that are unique in character and have extensive variations. The attractiveness of these applications will lead to more active users, thereby further expanding the markets. Our ultimate target should be aimed at generating both the momentum and processes that will foster self-sustaining growth and expansion. reductions) in line with the length of time the policyholder maintains good health. Further, the realization of a barrier-free networking environment as the essence of ubiquitous networks that offer communications access by anybody, anywhere and at any time will enhance the attractiveness of services proved by the system and lead to further incentives to sign up for the services. The third stage is one of self-sustaining growth and continued proliferation resulting from the synergistic effects of the applications and the users. As the number of on-the-run and frequent users increases, the larger the market will become. This will lead to the production of commercial and public infrastructure Michio KITAMURA is a chief of Urban Systems Consulting Unit, Social Systems Consulting Department. His area of expertise includes urban policy and management related to socio-economic systems, information infrastructure, industries, and development. 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