Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland March 2010 A joint document by the Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland CONTENTS Ministerial Foreword 2 Executive Summary 4 Section 1: Introduction 9 Section 2: Where Scotland Stands on CCS 13 Section 3: Our Ambitions 15 Section 4: Key Milestones 20 Funding and Demonstration 20 Transport Options 21 Regulation 24 Storage Capacity 25 Stakeholder Engagement and Public Awareness 26 Developing Economic Opportunities 27 Summary of Key Steps 28 Section 5: Risks and Uncertainties 31 ANNEX A: Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage: Consortium Members 34 ANNEX B: Background to CCS 35 ANNEX C: Opportunities for CO2 Storage around Scotland – an Integrated Strategic Research Study 37 Further information on CCS and Energy related issues can be found at: http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Topics/Business-Industry/Energy http://www.scottish-enterprise.com/sector-energy.htm 1 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Ministerial Foreword On 1 May last year, the Scottish Government launched the report Opportunities for CO2 Storage around Scotland, which demonstrated the significant potential that Scotland has for the development of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). That report was produced on a partnership basis of Scottish Government, industry, research universities and others. The breadth of those partnerships reflects both the interest in CCS and our potential to be a leading player in its development. I am pleased that many of the partners involved in the original research project, along with some new partners, have joined the Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise in setting up a successor project. This is assessing storage capacity in more detail at a number of specific sites as well as considering issues around future skills requirement as well as public engagement on CCS. I look forward to the conclusions from this work emerging towards the end of the year. At the launch of the report, we stated that the Scottish Government would publish a roadmap for CCS. The report fulfils this commitment and is a signal of our intent. It sets out a vision for CCS in Scotland and sets out the key actions and milestones for action as well as indentifying how some of the existing challenges and uncertainties around CCS might be dealt with. This roadmap has been published jointly by the Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise, who now consider CCS to be an emerging priority for support. This demonstrates the economic growth opportunities that CCS offers Scotland. This roadmap has benefitted from significant input from a range of stakeholders including the Thermal Generation and CCS Industry Advisory Board and our fellow partners in the CCS successor project. I thank those who have contributed 2 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland towards this roadmap. We will be discussing it further with the full Energy Advisory Board and the supporting industry advisory groups and will be prepared to adapt it to respond to developments, including at UK and EU level. By doing so we are ensuring that CCS is being given a high priority within government. And as this roadmap states, we will shortly be setting out how we might fund continued activity around CCS, with a focus on research and levering EU funding. Scotland has several advantages for the development of CCS. We have significant offshore capacity; we have elements of the infrastructure required for CCS such as pipelines and we have skills in areas such as geological, engineering and the North Sea oil and gas industry which can be developed and utilised to help this industry grow and develop. This roadmap should be viewed as a template for progress which builds upon these advantages. I welcome the publication of this roadmap. It sets out our ambitions and the key steps that need to be taken if our vision of CCS becoming both a mainstay of our future energy supply and a vital economic sector, is to be realised. We are committed to working with a range of partners, including industry, academia and the UK government and EU to ensure that Scotland can deliver on the opportunities that CCS provides. We have already achieved a significant amount of progress in this area. But we know that more needs to be done as we move into the demonstration phase of activity. I am convinced that this roadmap will act as a useful guide to measure progress. Jim Mather MSP Minister for Enterprise, Energy and Tourism 3 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Executive Summary The Scottish Government is determined to ensure that we become Europe‟s leader in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) as the First Minister stated at the launch of the Scottish Research Report on 1 May 2009. The Scottish Government will continue to work with the UK Government, European Union, Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Health & Safety Executive, Scottish Enterprise, Industry and Academics to ensure we fully capitalise on Scotland‟s potential. This roadmap sets out how we hope to achieve our objectives in this area and also provides support and information that recognises Scotland as the prime location to attract future global investment in CCS research, development and project deployment. The Scottish Government announced 10 Energy Pledges on February 2, 20091 as part of a Greener Deal for Scotland. The actions - ranging across key areas of energy generation and transmission, energy efficiency and transport - are focused on addressing both short and longer term opportunities for Scotland to benefit from competitive advantage. They are aimed at creating new jobs, reducing emissions and saving households and businesses money, thereby contributing to economic recovery and growth and, importantly, to address climate change. The Pledges support the key themes of the Update on the Scottish Economic Recovery Programme2, published on 15 June 2009: jobs and communities; education and skills; and innovation and industries of the future. In May 2009, the Scottish Government published a Key Sector Paper3 which showed that Scotland's energy sector is making a significant contribution to economic recovery and green jobs. In regards to Carbon Capture and Storage we have pledged (no 5) to: “Support development and implementation of clean fossil fuel technologies in Scotland, through collaboration with academia, industry and other interested parties”. Alongside the accelerated expansion of renewables, the electricity mix must benefit from clean fossil fuel technologies. As demonstrated by the recent study on Carbon Capture and Storage opportunity in Scotland4, Scotland can lead the way in Carbon Capture and Storage. 1 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Releases/2009/02/02112143 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/275465/0082606.pdf 3 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/917/0081161.pdf 4 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/04/28114540/0 2 4 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Key Actions 5 The research project launched by the First Minister on 1 May 20095 showed the significant potential for CCS in Scotland to attract maximum economic investment by creating development opportunities for both global based and local businesses. The research brought together a number of leading scientists, engineers and technologists from a range of disciplines and organisations to address the potential for, and challenges associated with, carbon capture and storage in Scotland. This project underpins other ongoing work being undertaken by a wide range of Scottish industrial sectors and academia. See Annex A for a list of project consortium members. A second phase, the Scottish CCTS Development Study, is currently assessing the potential storage capacity of the North Sea for carbon in more detail as well as progressing work on issues around skills and public acceptance. Many of the partners involved in the initial study have remained involved in this successor project while we have also welcomed new partners on board. The Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise will continue to support Scottish-based CCS UK demonstrator applicants through engagement with key stakeholders including the UK Government and European Commission Through the Scottish European Green Energy Centre (SEGEC), we will continue to engage with European Commission and partner countries in supporting policy development and securing project funding for Scottish CCS projects. SEGEC has already promoted Scotland‟s CCS expertise through membership of the European Commission‟s Berlin Forum on Sustainable Fossil Fuels, and has assisted a number of potential CCS projects in Scotland. The future objective is to obtain the maximum level of CCS activity in Scotland and ensure that Scotland is seen as an internationally credible location for the development of CCS. We will work with the UK Government on the details of the forthcoming levy on electricity supply to help facilitate four CCS demonstration projects across the UK, including the ongoing UK CCS competition. As well as focusing on larger demonstration projects, we want to help create an environment within which activity separate but complementary to larger demonstration projects are encouraged. These, for example, could http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs/regional-study/CO2-JointStudy-Full.pdf 5 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland include innovation and R&D to support the development of skills and capacity to support and complement these larger projects. The Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise will work with others, including the Energy Advisory Board and associated sub-groups, to develop a Strategic Alliance approach for CCS, to ensure that public sector support for CCS is adequate to pursue opportunities. We are already working with the Crown Estate, HSE, SEPA, Marine Scotland and DECC to develop a regulatory and policy framework for the development of CCS in Scotland. The framework sets out a sequential and integrated approach for applicants to obtain the necessary consents, permits and licences required by applicants to construct, commission, operate and maintain thermal power stations, complete with CCS technologies. We have consulted on the “Guidance for Section 36 Applications for Thermal Power Stations” which we plan to issue shortly. We have already set out our position on CCS: At least 300 MWe of CCS demonstration is now required on new build coal plant or existing plant retrofitted with supercritical boilers; The Scottish Government will adopt the same 'rolling review' process being followed by the UK Government, which will result in a CCS status (technical, economics, environmental and safety) report being issued in 2018; If all the appropriate tests are passed, then CCS would be judged viable, leading to a requirement for all new build coal plants from 2020 to be fitted with 100% CCS from the outset, as well as retrofitting full CCS to those coal plants built between now and 2018. The Scottish European Green Energy Centre (SEGEC) was officially opened on 17 August 2009 to support Scottish organisations in the green energy sector to gain maximum benefit from engagement with Europe. Over the next three years, SEGEC will create constructive partnerships in areas of key European interest – marine energy, Carbon Capture and Storage, offshore wind, energy efficiency, renewable heat and grids – to drive research, encourage adoption, act as a centre of expertise and influence policy. SEGEC aims to act as a catalyst for the deployment of green energy and research, encouraging and supporting industry to put research into practise so that Scotland, and Europe, can fully benefit from these advances. SEGEC will place Scotland at the forefront of research, development, demonstration and deployment of low carbon energy technologies across Europe. 6 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Duncan Botting is the Executive Chair of SEGEC. For further information and contact details, please contact the Centre‟s Administrator, Gina Ford, by telephone on 01224 489 981 or email Gina.Ford@segec.org.uk Roadmap – its purpose This Roadmap sets out the vision of the Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise for CCS for Scotland. It sets out a timeline of: what needs to happen and by when; who is involved; the main drivers and milestones; the main categories where we need to see progress on; o funding and demonstration o transport network planning and development o regulation/legislation o storage assessment o stakeholder engagement and public acceptance o economic opportunity and skills; and the most significant challenges and risks and what the possible responses to those are. Our overall vision for CCS in Scotland is as follows: For Scotland to become a leader in the demonstration and deployment of CCS technology, utilising the advantages and strengths that Scotland possess and ensuring that the experience and knowledge gained as a result, can be shared to the benefit of Scottish-based firms, academics and others. Specifically we want to see a number of CCS demonstration projects being developed in Scotland alongside the development of ancillary and support services for CCS. The Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise recognise that development of this sector in Scotland will require public sector support. There are a number of possible funding sources available from Scottish Enterprise, some of which has already been used to support initial developments in Scotland. Such support will continue to be available. In addition, the Scottish Government will further assist the development of CCS through additional funding. Details of how this money will be allocated are still to be decided but it is likely that it will be focused upon assistance for research and development activities. We will work with others, including the Thermal Generation and CCS Industry Advisory Group to consider the most effective way to allocate this funding. 7 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Section 1 - Introduction Global energy demand as a whole continues to rise despite the current economic slowdown. The International Energy Agency (IEA) states that fossil fuels will remain a central part of the way we consume energy. The World Energy Outlook in 2008 estimated that 80% of global energy needs in 2030 will continue to be met by fossil fuels. At the same time the impact of climate change is clear with the need to take action to reduce carbon emissions. The Scottish Government is now committed to the world-leading greenhouse gas emission reduction targets set out in the new Climate Change (Scotland) Act 20096 which sets a statutory target for greenhouse gas emission reduction of 80% by 2050. The 7 accompanying Climate Change Delivery Plan sets out four transformational outcomes that will be necessary to meet this, including decarbonisation of electricity generation by 2030. The question therefore arises as to how we maintain energy security and meet future energy demand while minimising the effects of climate change. Given that just over a third of current carbon emissions in Scotland come from the electricity generation sector, it has a significant key role to play in the development of technology led approaches which can reduce carbon emissions while continuing to ensure that supplies of electricity are maintained. Source: Key Scottish Environment Statistics 20098 6 http://www.opsi.gov.uk/legislation/scotland/acts2009/pdf/asp_20090012_en.pdf http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/06/18103720/0 8 http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/282666/0085518.pdf 7 8 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Clean coal technologies including Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) can significantly reduce carbon dioxide being released into the atmosphere from the burning of fossil fuels as well as making an important economic contribution to Scotland‟s low carbon future. They can also allow for the continued use of natural resources for fuel sources, thus protecting the economic values that these sectors currently contribute towards the Scottish economy, while also contributing towards carbon reductions. With over 23,000 fossil fuel generating stations worldwide, this could be a massive market opportunity for CCS deployment from which Scottish companies could benefit. Annex B contains additional background information regarding CCS. The chart below shows that CCS can make a significant contribution to the scale of carbon reduction which is generally seen as necessary to reduce the impact of climate change (the so-called IEA blue scenario). Contribution of various approaches to Carbon Reduction (IEA scenario work): CCS is very much an emerging technology. The current emphasis is on demonstrating that CCS is feasible on a large commercial scale, and demonstration projects are key to that aim. The G8 stated that there should be 20 CCS demonstration projects globally by 2020 with 10 to 12 of these occurring in Europe. The EU has now stated that it wishes to see 8 demonstrator plants operational by 2015, a smaller number than was initially suggested. The IEA has stated that 100 projects need to be in operation globally by 2020 with around 100 projects per year thereafter. To achieve this type of scale will be extremely 9 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland challenging and to make any progress towards it will require a significant increase in the scale and support for projects in the early demonstration phrase. However, some components of CCS technology are still very much in their infancy. While there are a number of projects already happening worldwide, they are relatively small in size and none are currently based around electricity generation. The challenge is to create the appropriate financial, regulatory and policy structures to enable the development of CCS projects on the scale envisaged above. The Scottish Government is clear in its view that we need clean thermal generation to help play its part in security of supply, reducing emissions and to allow use of natural resources, while continuing to expand and develop the renewable resources that we have. We recognise that realising our vision will require a number of challenges and issues to be overcome, but the opportunities in this area are considerable. The Scottish Government is determined to be at the forefront of the development of CCS. Although published by the Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise, this Roadmap has benefited from input from a number of organisations. This includes representations from the Scottish Carbon Capture Transport and Storage Development Study steering committee, the Thermal Generation and CCS Industry Advisory Board as well as from the presentation made at the technical dissemination conference for the Scottish CCS Joint Study in June 2009 which set out The Path to a Deployable CCS Technology in Scotland9. This Roadmap will therefore have a key role to play as a guiding framework for the development of all aspects of CCS in Scotland, working with a range of partners from the public sector, academia and industry to drive progress in this sector. This Roadmap sets out in the view of the Scottish Government and Scottish Enterprise a timeline of: 9 what needs to happen and by when who is involved what are the main drivers and milestones the main areas where we need to see progress o funding o demonstrations o transport network planning and development o regulation/legislation http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs/regional-study/deployableCCStechnology.pdf 10 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland o storage assessment o engagement and public acceptance o economic opportunity and skills; and what the most significant risks are and what the possible responses to those might be This Roadmap should be viewed as an evolving document and will be updated on a regular basis. It will be discussed with the Energy Advisory Board and the supporting Industry Advisory Groups, and will respond and adapt to various developments at the Scottish, UK and EU level. 11 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Section 2 – Where Scotland stands on CCS Scotland is well placed to take a leading role in the development and commercialisation of CCS. We have the knowledge and expertise in our universities and industry, the infrastructure in the North Sea, and the strong leadership in government necessary to make this happen. The Scottish Government was the largest single contributor to the Scottish CCS Joint Study10 which was launched by the First Minister on 1 May 2009. This report highlighted the offshore potential of the North Sea Scottish sector to store emissions for next 200 years (see Annex C for a summary of its findings). The broad base of partner organisations, covering a wide range of sectors, is a sign of the potential of Scotland in terms of CCS also that through working together, progress can be made in this emerging but potentially hugely significant technology. Scotland can already demonstrate other significant progress in relation to CCS: 10 One of the Scottish Government ten Energy pledges, launched in February 2009 is to support the development and implementation of clean fossil technologies in Scotland, through collaboration with academia, industry and other interested parties. The Scottish Government is working closely with the EU and UK government to press for Scotland to receive its fair share of funding streams and packages that are available. Through our recently launched Energy Advisory Boards and supporting Industry Advisory Groups, including one on thermal generation and CCS, it is already a key sector for discussion. These groups provide a platform for discussion between the public sector agencies and industry to determine priorities and assess where support needs to be targeted. We are working with the UK government and others such as the Crown Estate, Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Scottish Natural Heritage and Health and Safety Executive to introduce the regulatory and policy framework for the regulation of CCS projects, including carbon storage offshore. Although we remain disappointed by the decision of the UK government in 2007 not to provide the necessary support for the proposed CCS project at http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs/regional-study/CO2-JointStudy-Full.pdf 12 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Peterhead, which would have provided both Scotland and the UK with a head start in the development of CCS demonstration projects, we are pleased that both the UK Government and the EU are now committing to funding a range of CCS demonstrators. The Scottish Government is supportive of the proposed project based at Longannet for a postcombustion coal demonstration plant which is part of the shortlist for the current UK CCS competition. In time we want to see other proposals being developed in Scotland. Scotland stands to benefit both from the money which will be raised from the levy on generation to fund CCS projects and also from the EU ETS New Entrants Reserve allocation which will begin in 2010. We are pleased that the UK Government has recognised that some aspects of spending from the proposed CCS levy touch on devolved matters and we look forward to continue to working with it to ensure that Scottish based projects can benefit. The Scottish Centre for Carbon Capture and Storage (SCCS) is driving forward academic research in this area. For example it recently won the European Commission‟s tender for a study to determine the future shape of the EU-wide CO2 transport and storage network. In addition it has recently appointed Professor Jon Gibbons from Imperial College in London – one of the UK‟s foremost experts in capture technology. The Centre has also made a number of recent appointments, including a Scottish Power supported Professorship in CCS. Doosan Babcock is currently demonstrating its OxyCoal combustion technology at Renfrew. The project is a collaboration between Doosan Babcock, the UK Government, the prime sponsor Scottish and Southern Energy, and a group of seven other sponsors (Air Products, Drax, DONG, EDF, E.On, ScottishPower and Vattenfall), supported by UK Coal. In addition, Scottish Power has been running its mobile test unit at Longannet for a number of months. The Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA) is working with other European Environment Agencies through the Environmental Protection Agency Network11. SEPA is keen to facilitate an exchange of information and knowledge on environmental and regulatory aspects of the merging CCS regime. The successor research project, to the initial Scottish study, the Scottish CCTS Development Study, has already commenced, building on the initial report and incorporating a number of separate work packages; 11 http://epanet.ew.eea.europa.eu/ 13 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Publication of this roadmap; Detailed assessment of possible aquifer stores to refine Scotland‟s CO2 storage assets; Present a view of the skills and capacity building needed for CCS; and Stakeholder/public information and communication issues This work involves many of the partners from the original study as well as involving a number of new partners. The Scottish Government has again been the largest single financial contributor to this successor project. The project is due to be completed by the end of 2010. In summary, we believe that Scotland has a number of advantages and existing strengths in the CCS sector Academic and Research Expertise Development of the academic Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage Consortium approach for Scottish CCS Joint Study demonstrated potential that exists in Scotland Opportunities for Scotland to demonstrate leadership in CCS especially in international collaboration terms Major test facilities and collaborative projects with potential for more Storage Capacity and Opportunities Large scale single point emitters Opportunity to develop a hub or cluster approach Research project showed potential for Central and Northern North Sea to store significant amounts of carbon dioxide from both Scotland and elsewhere Offshore storage capacity not always available in other areas of Europe Investment opportunities in replacement thermal generation means that CCS has an opportunity to become part of the energy mix Engineering and Offshore skills and knowhow Significant skills and experience in the oil and gas sector Opportunities for diversification for the oil and gas sector Supply chain already established Significant presence of energy related skills and companies already in Scotland Potential use of existing infrastructure in some instances 14 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Section 3 - Our ambitions Our vision for CCS in Scotland is as follows: For Scotland to become a leader in the demonstration and deployment of CCS technology, utilising the advantages and strengths that Scotland possesses and ensuring that the experience and knowledge gained as a result can be shared to the benefit of Scottish-based firms, academics and others. Specifically we want to see a number of CCS demonstration projects being developed in Scotland alongside the development of ancillary and support services for CCS and an appreciable share of the global CCS business. Underlying this ambition, we have the following key objectives: The Scottish Government wants Scotland to be at the forefront of the development and deployment of CCS technologies at a global level by further developing the CCS as a sector of key economic importance, based on the development and diversification of existing engineering and other skills developed in sectors such as oil and gas exploration and power generation. Scotland seeks to gain this position through delivering successful demonstration projects in carbon storage, and by securing funding for at least one, and ideally two, of the 8 CCS demonstration plants sought by the European Commission. CCS to be available as a low carbon deployment option for electricity generation and possibly other sectors in advance of 2020, allowing for the decarbonisation of electricity generation by 2030, while contributing to both security of supply and utilisation of resources. To continue to develop the synergy and partnership approach for CCS between government, industry, academia and others. We want Scottish-based companies and researchers to be in a leading position to benefit from the multi-billion pound worldwide market for CCS deployment in power generation and industry. There are already many examples of Scottish based organisations making significant progress in CCS. We want to build on that. We want the North Sea to be seen as Europe‟s principal CO2 storage hub – working in partnership with our neighbouring European governments – 15 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland bringing new investment and a long term future for our offshore industries as hydrocarbon production eventually declines. As well as focusing on bringing the large scale demonstration projects to Scotland, we want to ensure that the ancillary and support services required to develop CCS are also developed in Scotland, including activities in research and development and the development of smaller sized CCS projects including test drilling and storage assessments. Such developments can provide a bridge to the large demonstrations that will also be required. This roadmap has been written with the following assumptions The Scottish Government is committed to achieving the climate change targets as set out in the Climate Change (Scotland) Act. As part of a balanced energy mix, where Scotland‟s enormous resources in renewable energy can be realised, the Scottish Government does see a continued role for coal-fired power generation and other thermal sources, but only if carbon abatement approaches are adopted. CCS is one of the low carbon emitting technologies that will be required in order to achieve the targets that have been set. It will complement progress on renewable energy and other emissions reduction strategies such as energy efficiency, which are necessary to help meet the carbon reduction challenge and in the transition to a low carbon economy. We agree with the broad conclusions of the report from the Committee on Climate Change12 that in order to make significant progress towards our climate change targets then the electricity generation sector needs to be decarbonised by 2030. If that challenging target is to be achieved then we need to move from a position of demonstrator projects from around 2015, to ensure that CCS is available on a commercial scale as an option for power generation from 2020 and be widespread in the sector by 2030 – including retrofitting to existing plant. Assistance and public funding schemes necessary to encourage early stage CCS projects and ancillary/support projects to help establish skills and capacity are in place. We assume that the greatest potential for carbon storage lies offshore, in the North Sea, and that the most of the captured CO2 emissions will be . 12 http://www.theccc.org.uk/pdf/TSO-ClimateChange.pdf 16 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland stored there, in depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs and saline aquifers13. We also assume that suitable storage sites are identified and available. While the focus is on power generation and coal stations initially, CCS will need to be developed in other areas, not only in other thermal generation types such as gas but also for other industrial processes such as the production of cement and iron and steel. That is why a hub approach, seeking to look at the potential of developing networks based around large scale emitters, possibly on a wide geographical basis, will be an important future priority. In addition there should be a focus on usage of existing infrastructure such as pipelines if this is technically possible. This has an implication for decommissioning activity and it will be important to consider what options for CCS might be available before any such activity gets underway. Sharing of knowledge and learning from early demonstration projects should be encouraged wherever possible, especially when public funding of demonstration projects is involved. Some areas will be taken forward by government (regulatory framework and financing of early projects for example) while others will be driven largely by the private sector, such as development of future projects and supply chain opportunities, with help from the public sector as appropriate. In terms of financing, funding for demonstration projects will initially need to come largely from public sources. In time, a business model for CCS should emerge when the technology is deemed viable and when the costs of CCS implementation fall, or the carbon price under the ETS rises, to the point that investment by the private sector is forthcoming. However it is clear that the relatively early stage of the technology, along with current uncertainties around issues such as carbon prices and liabilities, means that public sector support will be required to help incentivise demonstration projects. As well as finance, the main factors that will encourage the development of CCS include the creation of a supportive regulatory and commercial environment that drives investment, political support and appropriate incentives along with public acceptance of CCS as a technology. This roadmap, along with the study and other documents makes an important contribution to providing government, industry and others with an indication of key milestones to allow us to work together and focus on the key steps. In order for our ambitions to be realised then we believe that the following needs to happen by 2020 in order to allow large scale deployment: 13 The Scottish Government do not rule out onshore storage, which is permitted by the EU Directive, but believe there is a far greater likelihood of public support for offshore storage. 17 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland • • • • • • • • • Commencement of demonstration projects, with initial public funding Commercial scale demonstration projects operational by 2015 Associated development of appropriate transport infrastructure Proven large scale storage capacity by 2020, including methodology/guidelines for storage site assessment Public Acceptance of CCS as a key technology Establishment of a CCS business environment including supply chain opportunities Appropriate regulatory regime Functioning carbon markets that deliver a carbon price that is an incentive for CCS investment under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. As well as larger scale demonstration projects, we want to see the development of ancillary projects and activities to help deliver innovation, skills and capacity. 18 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Section 4 – Key Milestones The table below sets out some of the key timelines and milestones that are likely to be required if CCS is to make a significant contribution towards the decarbonisation of the electricity sector by 2030. Required rate of growth of CCS 2010 Fledgling Industry 2015-2020 Global – 20 projects EU – up to 8 demo projects UK – up to 4 demo projects Scotland – 1 or more demo project EU – 30 million tonnes per year CO2 stored 2020 2020-2030 2030 EU – 150 CCS rollout Development million of CCS CCS changes tonnes CO2 common from demo to cumulatively across deployment stored. electricity phase generation EU and UK – and other CCS sectors deployment commencing Need large scale proven aquifer storage capacity Need financial funding method for CCS deployment established This section sets out some the key milestones across each of the main elements of CCS which we believe need to be considered if CCS is to become a reality in Scotland. Funding and Demonstrations CCS is currently a fledgling industry with only pilot plants currently in operation across Europe. These are small in nature and demonstrate individually only one aspect of the CCS chain. If we are to progress towards the recommendation of the Committee of Climate Change that the electricity generation sector should be decarbonised by 2030, then the period 2015-2020 will be the crucial demonstration phase for CCS, with further deployment on a commercial scale coming between 2020 and 2030. The role of the EU ETS New Entrants Reserve and the UK CCS levy (on which 19 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland the Scottish Government is ensuring that Scotland will have an influence) will be crucial in driving forward development during this demonstration phase. Scotland is well-positioned to benefit from UK support and EU finding for these projects thereafter. The UK government proposals are for 4 demonstration projects. Others, such as the UK Coal Forum and the ACCAT, have suggested that more will be required given the need to prove technology on a large commercial scale. The European Commission has now revised downward their initial plan of 12 - 15 projects to 8 projects in line with the projected funding available. We want to see at least one demonstration project in Scotland in this period, and preferably two. As stated previously we are supportive of the current proposals at Longannet as part of the UK competition but we also want to see other demonstration projects being developed in Scotland, and there are a number of strong candidates for future development. While collection of the proposed CCS Levy is a reserved matter, aspects of its allocation touch on devolved matters and will require close working between the UK and Scottish governments to decide the best criteria and mechanism for allocation of the funds. We of course recognise that deployment on this scale will require significant progress in a number of other areas, such as storage capacity and regulation as well as finance. While funding of the initial demonstration projects will be through the levy, there is a role for funding opportunities from other sources including Scottish Enterprise and Scottish Government. Scottish Enterprise has already funded some research and development activity to assist the development of CCS. There is a recognition that funding opportunities to assist the development of this sector will continue to be required and Scottish Enterprise is currently considering how this can best be delivered, as part of a new strategic alliance approach (see page 27). In addition, the Scottish Government has announced that it is prepared to assist the development of CCS through additional funding over the next few years. Decisions on how and where this money will be spent will be announced over the next few months although the focus is likely to be on assisting continued activity in research and development and leveraging European funds. CO2 Transport Options There are a number of transport options in relation to carbon dioxide. Ship transport may be appropriate for some storage areas in the relative short term if pipelines are not available or the store capacity has not been proven. However, if CCS is to move to a commercial scale and, in particular, if we are to develop a hub or cluster approach then development of transport networks need to be 20 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland considered and assessed. The Scottish CCS Joint Study identified a number of potential routes for transport depending on the options chosen. It is assumed that consideration of transport options on a single emitter to a single store basis will be less efficient and in the long term the development of a hub approach will need to be considered. Source: Opportunities for CO2 Storage around Scotland Report May 2009 The development of any CCS transport network in Scotland is likely to be dependent upon a number of factors such as the location of the initial demonstration projects and their proximity to the storage location; the regulatory framework, and in particular issues around the classification and treatment of carbon dioxide and the incentive to develop initial projects into a more coordinated network approach, upon which the HSE are currently considering progress. The Scottish Government will continue to work with other regulatory partners including the UK government, HSE, industry and other interested parties to consider the development of transport networks in the longer term. Given the scale of the financial investment that will be required, our focus will be facilitation where necessary and ensuring that the regulatory approach is appropriate. A collaborative approach may be required to try and plan ahead for the future 21 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland development of networks. In some instances it may be possible to utilise some of the existing pipeline infrastructure built for the North Sea oil and gas industry. We are supportive of the recent consultation by National Grid and Ofgem on the potential re-use of such infrastructure for CO2 transportation. In the longer term, we see the North Sea developing as the principal CO2 storage hub for the EU, and Scottish organisations such as the Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage and the Scottish European Green Energy Centre, are already participating in the European Commission‟s work to identify new trans-European CO2 transport corridors, hubs and pipelines, building on the recently released CO2 GeoCapacities research under the EU‟s 6th Framework Programme14. Map showing Possible European CCS Network Source: Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage 14 http://www.geology.cz/geocapacity 22 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Regulation The Scottish Government can play a significant role in the development of appropriate regulation along all aspects of the CCS chain. In relation to on-site capture through the consent and guidance process we will set the appropriate regulatory approach to the development of CCS technology at power stations, including the issue of retro-fitting and the approach to carboncapture readiness for gas and other thermal power stations. We have already consulted on our draft guidance and we plan to issue this shortly. The Scottish Government will continue to work closely with SEPA to ensure that appropriate environmental standards are adhered too, as well as other regulatory bodies such as the HSE, Crown Estate and Scottish Natural Heritage who will have responsibility for regulating a number of different aspects of the CCS chain. We are also working with the UK Government to ensure a broad consistency of approach to regulation across the UK, which industry had indicated is the most appropriate approach. With the partners listed above, we are currently developing a regulation matrix which will set out the main licences, permits and processes that are likely to be required for the all aspects of the CCS chain. The capture and compression of CO2 at electricity generation stations will be regulated by SEPA under the Pollution Prevention and Control (PPC) regulatory regime. The PPC regulations aim to prevent or minimize emissions to air, water and soil, as well as waste, from industrial and agricultural installations with a view to achieving a high level of environmental protection. Certain aspects of this will be covered by Section 36 consents but other aspects – onshore hubs/pipeline infrastructure - will require planning permission. New non-nuclear baseload generating capacity and associated infrastructure (including possible CCS infrastructure) is identified in the National Planning Framework 2 as a national development. The Government is currently preparing an NPF2 Action Programme that will include high level actions necessary to deliver the national developments. In terms of transport the Scottish Government may have to grant certain consents regarding pipeline use and also in the case of ship transport ensure that appropriate regulations are developed. The implementation of the EU directive on CCS15 is now underway and there are a number of issues arising from the directive which have to be transposed into Scottish and UK regulations. In terms of storage, the Scottish Government worked closely with the UK government in 2008 to pass the UK Energy Act through the UK Parliament including the passing of a Legislative Consent Motion 15 Directive 2009/31/EC on the geological storage of carbon dioxide 23 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland in the Scottish Parliament to ensure the development of a regulatory framework for the storage of carbon offshore. The Scottish Government continues to work with the UK government, DECC, SEPA and others to develop a policy regulatory framework for the development of CCS projects. Scottish Ministers have responsibility for licensing from 0-12 nautical miles in Scottish territorial waters (the point of injection is the important point to consider) while UK ministers have responsibility for the area from 12-200 nautical miles. However a memorandum of understanding between UK and Scottish Ministers is currently being agreed so that in the latter area, Scottish Ministers will be consulted in the process of issuing a storage licence and vice versa. The actual licensing of CO2 for storage in the Scottish territorial sea will be undertaken by Marine Scotland. Onshore storage is also permitted under the EU Directive, but the Scottish Government does not foresee any such development here in the short to medium term, where the focus will be on the offshore area. Storage Capacity In the short-term, depleted oil and gas fields in the North Sea are the most likely and ready storage sites for carbon. The level of knowledge and information about these oil and gas fields is understandably higher than for saline aquifers. There may also be some opportunity for the use of carbon dioxide for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR), which can increase oil production levels, although, as the Scottish study stated, there are a number of technical and cost issues which need to be considered before EOR can be developed in the North Sea. However the research study indicated that in the longer term, saline aquifers are likely to provide the greatest storage potential in the North Sea. The Scottish Government is already committed in the short term to contributing to the funding of the successor project, the Scottish CCTS Development Study, which will focus on commencing the more detailed assessment of selected saline aquifers in order to refine their CO2 storage capacity and efficiency and also the safety case and environmental assessment for the CO2 store. Such studies are important and in the medium to long term an essential precursor to much more detailed and expensive aquifer assessment from newly acquired data including drilling. The costs of aquifer assessment are high and the final sum is likely to be similar to that for appraisal of hydrocarbon fields. As yet the prospects for further exploration, without some sort of regulation certainty or financial incentive are somewhat uncertain. There is an intrinsic linkage between developing projects at the capture end of the chain with the development of proven storage capacity. 24 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Stakeholder Engagement and Public Awareness Public acceptance of CCS is likely to be an important factor in its development as a safe and effective means of reducing CO2 emissions. A number of surveys (Reiner et al16 and Palmgren et al17) suggest that current public perception of CCS is uncertain and unfavourable when compared with other technologies that could help in reducing emissions. But given the future crucial role that CCS is likely to play, it is important to consider how we can take steps to communicate information which will better inform the public and other key stakeholders about CCS (building upon the wider and connected issue of climate change) by providing unbiased factual and concise information on the role of CCS in reducing emissions. Governments will have a crucial role in helping to facilitate and encourage engagement and discussion between all the various stakeholders who are likely to be involved in the development of CCS. For example, information and discussions can be held with local communities where projects may be developed. While Government can play a role, it will be necessary to build a broad coalition comprising of government, Non-Governmental Organisations, academia and industry. It will also be important to ensure that the information provided strikes the necessary balance between being technically robust and ensuring that it is communicated in an engaging and easy to understand manner to the general public. Recent developments in Germany and elsewhere in Europe, often relating to onshore storage, does give us some element of possible advantage in this area, but we need to ensure that some of the key questions likely to be raised regarding leakage and safety are tackled. The successor project group is currently taking forward some work on considering the issue of public engagement. Given the broad range of interests represented in the Scottish study group, both for the original study and the follow up work, this is an excellent forum for considering proposals in this area. This work is due to be completed by the end of 2010. 16 Reiner*, D.M., et al., American exceptionalism? Similarities and differences in national attitudes toward energy policy and global warming. Environmental Science & Technology, 2006. 40(7): p. 2093-2098. 17 Palmgren, C.R., et al., Initial Public Perceptions of Deep Geological and Oceanic Disposal of Carbon Dioxide. Environmental Science & Technology, 2004. 38(24): p. 6441-6450. 25 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Developing economic opportunity and skills The economic opportunities for the development of a CCS-based industry are considerable. There is the potential for a whole new industry to emerge in Scotland, which could support up to an estimated 10,000 new jobs in the next 15–20 years. In the longer term, CCS is expected to develop into a multi-billion pound market with some 23,000 thermal generation plants globally, potentially requiring replacement or retrofit with CCS. As stated previously, Scotland has real potential to see the development of CCS as a key economic sector. We have many of the skills and engineering experience gained from the oil and gas and power industries which are transferable to this sector. Given the potential global potential for CCS development, there is significant export potential for Scotland in areas such as power plant construction and components, engineering consultancy services as well as geological and academic expertise. While we consider that Scotland has already made significant progress in a number of aspects, the challenge will be to build upon this work as we start to move into the demonstration phase of CCS over the next few years. In particular, there needs to be a focus from government and other agencies in ensuring that the economic development opportunities for CCS are exploited. Following some initial discussions within Scottish Enterprise and Scottish Government, a CCS Alliance for Scotland has been proposed. This would bring together representatives from various parts of the public sector to consider how we take forward CCS activity and assist in the development of projects to the benefit of Scotland, including ensuring that key messages about Scotland and what we can offer are communicated to relevant parties including the European Union. In effect this would be the „front door‟ of CCS in Scotland to the world. The primary public sector responsibility for the development of CCS opportunities will lie with economic development agencies Scottish Enterprise, Highlands and Islands Enterprise and Scottish Development International, supported by the Scottish European Green Energy Centre and the Energy Technology Partnership. They have considerable experience in the provision of support including supply chain development and investment opportunities. The Scottish Government is keen to prioritise the development of CCS and will ensure that the relevant agencies maximise efforts to develop opportunities. The level of skills required in CCS will also be an issue. As part of the work programme of the Energy Advisory Boards and the supporting themes groups, a paper on future skills requirements for the sector is being developed. This will allow both industry and the public sector agencies, including Skills Development Scotland, to consider what future actions might need to be taken. In addition, as part of the Scottish CCTS Development Study, the issue of skills is 26 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland being reviewed, with input from Skills Development Scotland as well as project partners to assess the potential level of demand for the range of skills that will be required for the development and deployment of CCS projects. CCS Roadmap - Summary of Key Steps The table below summarises some of the key milestones and progress points which we consider necessary for CCS to become a reality, as well as the Scottish Government vision set out earlier in this roadmap. 2009 -10 2010-2015 2015-2029 2030 Main role for Scottish Government and public sector more widely Fledging Development Funding and Roll out of Contribution to Overall of business CCS research and development industry demonstration models demonstration Seek to secure projects emerge for Aiming for a funding from projects number of various demonstration sources for plants demonstration occurring in projects Scotland. (ongoing) Vision achieved Consultation by Consideration Further CCS Appropriate Transport Ofgem/National of transport development network consenting Grid on re-use options of transport developed in and regulatory of existing gas Demonstration options – Scotland framework in pipelines projects in clustering place associated with Scotland approach Ensure that Longannet supported by being views of project appropriate developed government transport and industry infrastructure on transport issues are communicated appropriately Development OSPAR and Money from Clear Appropriate Regulation of offshore London levy has approach on consenting carbon convention been regulation and regulatory licensing ratified to deployed for with reward framework in 27 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland regime Working with UK govt on funding mechanisms for generation Storage Capacity Research funding Stakeholder Engagement Development of communication approach Economic Opportunity Funding for R&D and feasibility studies. Identify skills and training needs that match industry demand. Energy Advisory board working with allow cross border Details on levy mechanism Amendment to regulations to allow CCS as an activity to gain PPC Further research into capacity and safety issues demo projects Continued refinement of regulatory approach especially in relation to storage Proven large scale capacity. Funding model clear Demonstration and of offshore established. test aquifer Drilling of injection potential sites Continuing to Ensuring ensure that that public public understand concerns are key role of answered CCS in climate Possible change workshops Ensuring that skill demand and supply are broadly matched. Development for Strategic Alliance for CCS to all aspects of the CCS chain place Issues around storage capacity well understood Helping to facilitate and secure funding for activity and ensuring regulation CCS fully accepted as part of climate change solution Working with industry, NGOs and others to ensure messages are communicated and concerns answered Making view of SG on CCS clear Continued Significant Ensuring that development supply chain funding of supply opportunities opportunities chain and and key from the EU emergence economic and of new sector in elsewhere are companies Scotland maximised – and provide help business and support to models developing firms – ensuring maximum Scottish input into projects. 28 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland SG and others to develop priorities for CCS Driving forward development of Strategic Alliance for CCS Maximising EU funding support Development of Strategic Alliance for Scotland 29 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Section 5 - Risks and Uncertainties CCS is of course a new and emerging industry where there remains a great deal of uncertainty about many factors. This roadmap has already highlighted some of those. And while uncertainties about emerging technologies are not confined to CCS, it is important to understand and assess each of these major risks so that strategies to address them can be delivered. The table below highlights some of these key uncertainties and some of the key points that need to be considered to mitigate these risks. Uncertainty Costs Details Fear of scale of investment may deter positive investment decisions – also a fear of impact upon consumer bills. Lack of clear business model in the short-term. Carbon Price In the long term a rising carbon price is required to prompt investment in CCS and other low carbon activity. Current level of carbon price low Business Model The current business model for the full chain of CCS development is still uncertain - will different industries with different approaches (e.g. utilities and oil Suggested response The Scottish CCTS Joint Study has shown that the financial costs for a CCS project are considerable. However, carbon dioxide abatement costs for electricity generation using CCS are comparable to that for wind and less than for wave power generation. In a similar way to the renewable energy industry financial support into the future is also crucial for CCS to commence in Scotland. Cost reduction for CCS should occur over time given refinements to process; learning and economies of CCS should therefore become clearer over time. In the short to medium term some sort of price support will be needed – this is the rationale behind the current proposals for a generator levy. Future support models may need to be refined over time. EU ETS should lead to a rise in carbon price thus increasing future investment. Incentives will be developed including carbon price to develop business models – the Scottish CCS Joint Study report highlighted some potential business models – 30 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland and gas) come together? Questions over liability. Need to ensure that technology makes the leap from demonstration to deployment Storage No full CCS projects yet implemented in UK offshore waters. Uncertainty about storage capacity Regulation Regulation of projects not yet completed. Planning risks to part of CCS chain. Regulators restrict CCS operations Public Acceptance As in other parts of Europe, there may be some resistance to CCS projects Economic Opportunity Scotland fails to benefit fully from development of CCS. Supply chain fails to ensure delivery experiences form other sectors e.g. growth of the oil and gas sector might be useful. Issue of liability is currently being considered as part of offshore licensing development and EU directive. However it has to be recognised that issues around liability risks are likely to be a significant risk factor at the current time. Offshore storage regime currently being developed. Storage development will run alongside demonstration projects. Scottish CCTS Development Study is currently assessing storage capacity in North Sea saline aquifers in more detail. Drilling of aquifers is likely to be necessary at some stage Regulation needs to be in step or ahead of proposed demonstration projects – UK and Scottish Governments are working together to develop appropriate regulatory approach along with partners and other statuary agencies. Progress being made in this area to ensure regulation ties in with projects. Guidance being developed on Section 36 and positive engagement with all relevant regulators to ensure that planning is not a significant barrier to CCS development Scottish Government and others are working with NGOs and others in Scotland to ensure that concerns are addressed and that there is a broad public acceptance of CCS. The CCS successor project is also taking forward work on this Strategic Alliance approach being developed in Scotland to focus on economic opportunities. Focus of Scottish Enterprise on CCS as a priority sector. Thermal Guidance and CCS Industry Advisory Group to 31 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland inform Scottish Enterprise on economic priorities. SEGEC also seeking to obtain access to EU funding. Ensure that supply chain benefits from opportunities 32 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Annex A Scottish Carbon Capture & Storage Joint Study - Opportunities for CO2 Storage around Scotland The study was funded and guided by: Accenture; BG Group plc; CO2 DeepStore Ltd; ConocoPhillips (U.K.) Limited; Doosan Babcock Energy Limited; Hydrogen Energy; INEOS Manufacturing Scotland Ltd; Marathon Oil Corporation; National Grid; Nexen Petroleum U.K. Limited; RWE npower; Scottish and Southern Energy; Scottish Government; ScottishPower; Wood Mackenzie; In addition, contributors to the study were: AMEC plc; British Geological Survey; Element Energy Ltd; Heriot-Watt University; James Fisher Marine Services Limited; Pöyry Energy Consulting; Senergy Alternative Energy; University of Aberdeen; University of Edinburgh; University of Strathclyde. 33 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Annex B Background to CCS Schematic diagram showing Elements of CCS infrastructure and relationship with geological structure: Source: British Geological Survey What is CCS? CCS is a 3 step process which involves capturing the CO2 from power plants and other industrial and energy-related sources, transporting it to storage points then storing it safely in offshore depleted oil and gas fields, deep saline aquifers as well as possible sites onshore. 1. Capture CO2 capture is the process of removing CO2 (carbon dioxide) produced by hydrocarbon combustion (coal, oil and gas) before it enters the atmosphere. The process will be most cost effective when it is used on large point sources of CO2 such as power stations and industrial plants. These currently make up more than half of all man-made CO2 emissions. There are currently three main methods of capturing CO2: Post-combustion capture - removing the dilute CO2 from flue gases after hydrocarbon combustion Pre-combustion capture - removal of CO2, prior to combustion, to produce hydrogen 34 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Oxy-fuel combustion capture - burning fossil fuels in pure oxygen as opposed to air resulting in an exhaust gas of mainly CO2 and water vapour 2. Transport CO2 capture is likely to be most economic at large point sources of CO2 such as power stations and large industrial plants. In most cases these will not be close to a suitable underground geological store and therefore the CO2 will have to be transported. Transport is currently the least complicated element in the CO2 capture and storage chain as the technology is already in existence and costs can be realistically estimated. The main complication with CO2 transport is that CO2 behaves differently under varying pressures and temperatures and therefore transport of CO2 must be carefully controlled to prevent solidification and blockages occurring. There are currently two methods used to transport large volumes of CO2 by industry: Pipeline Transport Ship Transport 3. Storage CO2 storage is the process of taking captured CO2 and then placing in a store where it will not be in contact with the atmosphere for thousands of years. Storage of the CO2 underground in deeply buried porous rocks beneath a layer of impermeable rock (cap rock), which acts as a seal to prevent the CO2 from leaking out, is the most obvious option at present. There are three main types of proposed underground storage sites: Depleted Oil and Gas Reservoirs Deep Saline Aquifers Deep Unminable Coal Seams You can read more about CCS at The Scottish Centre for Carbon Storage http://www.geos.ed.ac.uk/sccs 35 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Annex C Opportunities for CO2 Storage around Scotland - an integrated strategic research study Summary The Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) study was published on 1 May 2009. The study presents the first high-level screening of CO2 storage sites available to Scotland; evaluates the means by which CO2 can be transported from power plants and other industrial activities to storage sites, and investigates the costs and business constraints. Main Findings Without CCS, Scotland is likely to produce between 300 and 700 million tonnes of CO2 from 2010 to 2050 - that is, on average, between 8 and 18 million tonnes per year. In 2006, CO2 output from major industrial sources in NE England amounted to over 50 million tonnes/year. Geological reservoirs suitable for storage of CO2 are classified according to whether they contain (or have contained) oil, gas, or saline water. From a resource of more than 80 saline aquifers studied, ten have been identified with a total potential CO 2 capacity in the range 4,600 to 46,000 million tonnes - a capability to store more than 200 years of Scotland's CO2 output from its major fixed industrial sources. Initial costs of assessing potential saline aquifer stores likely to be considerably higher than for stores in existing oil and gas fields. Thus, pilot CO2 capture projects will be essential element of developing any new storage site. From a resource of more than 200 hydrocarbon fields, 29 have been identified as clearly having potential for CO2 storage. Four gas condensate fields and one gas field offer significant potential for CO2 storage. However, most of the oil fields can only be used as CO2 stores in conjunction with CO2 - EOR technology. CO2 - EOR may act as a stimulus for CCS especially if developers come to expect that the price of oil will remain over $100 per barrel for the period of their investment. Development of a CCS infrastructure in Scotland could lead to application of CO2 - EOR in certain fields. 36 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland Storage hubs are proposed to give multiple storage options within a geographical area to reduce costs and risks to CCS infrastructure. A pipeline network would be used to transport 20 million tonnes/year of CO2 from sources to distribution hubs offshore. Capital costs are £0.7 to £1.67 billion, depending on hub location. The preferred route is through an onshore pipeline from the Firth of Forth to St Fergus, then onwards to an offshore storage hub, while an offshore pipeline route from the Firth of Forth should also be considered. A phased approach is appropriate to support the development of CCS technology. Direct Government funding will be required in the short term for R&D and pilot projects. In the medium term, CCS demonstration projects required under the UK Government and EU programmes, will need income support. In the long term, low-carbon generation projects are capable of being supported by the price of carbon alone. However, the volatility of the carbon market will place an additional financial risk on such projects. The long term carbon abatement cost of CCS coal and CCS gas appear comparable with other available low-carbon power generation technologies and CCS has the potential to materially contribute to carbon abatement in Scotland. Background to CCS The EU plans to have 12 CCS plants operating by 2015. In February 2009, the UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change stated an aspiration for the UK to have more than one demonstration project in operation enabled by government funding. Scotland has an extremely large CO2 storage resource. This is overwhelmingly in offshore saline aquifers (deeply buried porous sandstones filled with salt water) together with a few specific depleted hydrocarbon fields. The resource can easily accommodate the industrial CO2 emissions from Scotland for the next 200 years. There is likely to be sufficient storage to allow import of CO2 from NE England, this equating to over 25% of future UK large industry and power CO2 output. Preliminary indications are that Scotland's offshore CO2 storage capacity is very important on a European scale, comparable with that of offshore Norway, and greater than Netherlands, Denmark and Germany combined. CO2 storage in oil fields may be feasible in conjunction with CO2-Enhanced Oil Recovery (CO2 - EOR). If offshore pipelines reliably delivering CO2 could be developed through demonstration projects, then an increased number of oilfields could become economic for EOR providing other critical factors such as oil price, additional oil recovery and infrastructure suitability are also favourable. Additional benefits include delayed decommissioning costs and extended benefit to the economy through development of technology and expertise in offshore CO2EOR. However, contrary to many expectations, the study has shown that most 37 Carbon Capture and Storage – A Roadmap for Scotland oilfields in the northern North Sea cannot easily be used solely for CO2 storage because sea water injection commonly used to maintain field pressure during oil production, significantly reduces the amount of storage capacity for CO2. Pipelines are the best option for the secure and continuous transport of millions of tonnes of CO2 from different CO2 sources to collection hubs onshore and then to offshore storage hubs for local distribution to diverse storage sites. Several routing options exist and, importantly, can include the connection of pipelines carrying CO2 originating from England or continental Europe. Capital and operational costs for CCS projects are similar to those of the hydrocarbon industry. Electricity generated in Scotland from power plant fitted with CCS is shown by this study to be comparable in price to that generated from other low-carbon technologies. The cost of abatement per tonne of CO2 is cheaper on coal plants than on gas, because coal produces larger amounts of CO2 per unit of electricity. However, the cost per unit of low-carbon electricity from coal and gas CCS is approximately the same. 38 ISBN 978 0 7559 9265 2 (web only publication)