SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION
FRAMEWORK
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION
FRAMEWORK
December 2009
© Crown copyright 2009
ISBN: 978-0-7559-8179-3
The Scottish Government
St Andrew’s House
Edinburgh
EH1 3DG
Produced for the Scottish Government by RR Donnelley B62211 12/09
Published by the Scottish Government, December 2009
The text pages of this document are printed on recycled paper and are 100% recyclable
CONTENTS
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
I.
About the Adaptation Framework
3
II.
How Our Climate is Changing
5
III. Addressing Climate Change in Scotland
10
IV. Building Resilience to the Impacts of Climate Change
14
V.
Pillar I: Provide the evidence base
16
Pillar II: Equip decision makers with skills & tools
18
Pillar III: Integrate adaptation into regulation & public policy
21
Sector Roles and Responsibilities
24
VI. Measuring and Reporting Progress
32
VII. Glossary of Terms
34
SECTOR SUMMARIES
This publication has been developed with a series of accompanying Sector Summaries,
outlining the key issues and planned activity for addressing adaptation within sectors.
Sector Summaries will be periodically updated to reflect key developments and the most
recent summary will be available online at: www.scotland.gov.uk/climatechangeadaptation.
i
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
ii
FOREWORD
SCOTLAND WILL NOT LOOK THE SAME IN 2050
AS IT DOES NOW
Over the coming decades, changes in our climate will cause more
Stewart Stevenson
frequent extreme weather events, threatening human life, homes
Minister for Transport,
and essential infrastructure. Incremental changes in climate, though Infrastructure and
less obvious, also present significant challenges with consequences for Climate Change
natural resources essential to life including fresh water supplies and
food production. Climate change is also putting pressure on vital ecosystems
and is changing our landscapes.
Scotland is taking necessary action to limit further climate change by establishing worldleading emissions reduction targets and the legislation required to achieve this ambition.
With similar ambition from global partners, we can limit future climate change. But this
will not protect us from the change driven by emissions already ‘locked-in’ to the system.
The Government’s Economic Strategy sets out the Scottish Government’s Purpose to create a
more successful country with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish through increasing
sustainable economic growth. Unchecked, the impacts of climate change will threaten our
achievement of this Purpose: affecting economic growth itself and our desired characteristics
of growth – solidarity, cohesion and sustainability. Scottish organisations will face new risks
to their business continuity. Long-life assets, such as transport infrastructure, may require
early and expensive replacement if they cannot withstand new climate conditions. Communities
may face both the economic pressures and long-term health implications of flooding.
With effective, co-ordinated planning we can ensure that Scotland is as resilient as possible
to the future impacts of climate change while simultaneously ensuring low-carbon economic
growth. It won’t be pain free; climate change comes at a cost. We and our children will have
to pay the price of past development. But with the right planning, the costs will be kept as
low as possible and new opportunities can be taken. This challenge needs to be taken up
not just by government, but across all sections of society – from businesses and individuals
to local governments and public bodies.
We are now one of only a handful of nations with a national plan for climate change
adaptation. This is new territory for Scotland and the Scottish Government. The Climate
Change Adaptation Framework will provide a focus and drive to foster innovative ways to
adapt to climate change. We will seek to lead and share this knowledge with partners in
Scotland and with other nations – in particular, developing nations – as part of our global
response to climate change.
Working together, we can be better prepared and more resilient to the challenges of
climate change. I want Scotland to make choices today that look inspired tomorrow.
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SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
2
I: ABOUT THE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
The effects of climate change caused by past and present emissions will impact on
the way we work and live in Scotland. How disruptive this change is will be determined
by our preparedness.
Early and co-ordinated adaptation to the unavoidable impacts of climate change will help
Scotland minimise the impacts of costly disruptions and safeguard the long-term prosperity
of our environment, economy and communities. The Climate Change Adaptation Framework
presents a national, co-ordinated approach to ensure that Scotland understands the risks
and opportunities these changes present and is adapting in a sustainable way. It sets out:
Z
The overarching model for adapting to climate change in Scotland; and
Z
Summaries of climate change adaptation in key sectors.
The aim of the Adaptation Framework is to lead planned adaptation across all sectors
to increase the resilience of Scotland’s communities, and the natural and economic
systems on which they depend, to the impacts of climate change. It will achieve this
through the following 3 Pillars:
Z
The Framework will improve the understanding of the consequences of a changing
climate and both the challenges and opportunities it presents;
Z
The Framework will equip stakeholders with the skills and tools needed to adapt to
changing climate; and
Z
The Framework will integrate adaptation into wider regulation and public policy so
that it is a help, not a hindrance, to addressing climate change issues.
3
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
What is climate change adaptation and mitigation?
Energy from the sun powers all life on Earth and it is this energy which drives our weather.
Greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere help to trap some of this energy and make our
planet the warm and comfortable place it is. However over the past 150 years or so, humanity
has been changing the make up of our atmosphere. By putting more greenhouse gases,
such as CO2, into the air than ever before we are trapping more of the sun’s energy. This
means the whole planet is getting warmer and as this happens, our weather and climate
will continue to change.
The changes we have already seen in our climate over the past 50 years result from the
build up of greenhouse gases since the 1850s. Similarly, the levels of greenhouse gases in
the atmosphere emitted more recently will ensure that the planet continues to get warmer
for decades to come.
Assessing the consequences of this and altering our plans or designs to account for these
changes, is referred to as climate change adaptation. For example, we have to think about
how climate change will help farmers in Scotland who are already experiencing a longer
growing season. Some places may become more prone to flooding – so what kind of things
do we need to do to protect homes and businesses? The list is almost endless.
In order to slow down and eventually bring a halt to climate change caused by human
activity, we have to reduce the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. This will
help to slow down or mitigate future impacts and is, therefore, referred to as climate
change mitigation. We can mitigate further climate change by reducing activities that emit
greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, such as reducing energy use and producing more
power from renewable sources. Again the list is almost endless.
Who is the Adaptation Framework for?
Sustainable adaptation to the impacts of climate change will require a mixture of actions at
local, national and international levels. Through the Adaptation Framework, the Scottish
Government will work with strategic partners to address Scotland’s vulnerability to changes
in our climate. These include organisations that deliver public services, that manage
Scotland’s natural environment and that develop social and economic policy.
The Adaptation Framework does not seek to guide individuals directly in adapting to climate
change. However, the impacts of climate change will have consequences for individuals and
individual businesses. Therefore, the Adaptation Framework also establishes support
mechanisms to work with local businesses and communities. Local authorities, their
Community Planning Partnerships1 and the Scottish Climate Change Impacts Partnership
(SCCIP), will be central in helping their local stakeholders adapt to climate change.
1
4
Community Planning is a process which helps public agencies to work together with the community to plan and
deliver better services which make a real difference to people's lives. Community Planning Partnerships are
operating in all 32 local authority areas with a variety of themes, structures and mechanisms for political involvement.
II: HOW OUR CLIMATE IS CHANGING
Scotland co-funded the development of the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09). These
projections show the changes that can be expected during the rest of this century. Broadly,
Scotland will get warmer, wetter winters and hotter, drier summers.
There will always be an element of uncertainty when looking at the future; it simply isn’t
possible to predict with 100% certainty exactly how much the climate will change by a given
decade. UKCP09 provides projections of the amount of change for climate variables and the
associated probability (strength of evidence) of being less than or greater than each value at
a given point in time.
Projections are available for three different emissions scenarios. These scenarios are based
on different models of future population, use of fossil fuels, social equity and development of
technology. The scenarios are based on global emissions and assume there is no intervention
to reduce emissions. However, the Scottish Government is hopeful that a robust global
agreement will be reached to reduce emissions which could limit the extent of climate change.
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SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
Temperature and Precipitation
Under a medium emissions scenario, by the 2050s Scotland would expect to see the
following changes:
Table 1: Scottish climate projections by the 2050s under medium emissions
2050s
MEDIUM EMISSIONS
EASTERN
SCOTLAND
NORTHERN
SCOTLAND
WESTERN
SCOTLAND
Summer average
Temperature
+2.3ºC
(+1.1ºC to +3.9ºC)
+2.0ºC
(+0.9ºC to +3.4ºC)
+2.4ºC
(+1.1ºC to +3.8ºC)
Winter average
temperature
+1.7ºC
(+0.7ºC to +2.9ºC)
+1.7ºC
(+0.6ºC to +2.8ºC)
+1.9ºC
(+1.0ºC to +3.0ºC)
Summer average
precipitation
-12%
(-27% to +1%)
-10%
(-24% to +2%)
-12%
(-27% to +1%)
Winter average
precipitation
+10%
(+1% to +20%)
+13%
(+3% to +24%)
+15%
(+5% to +29%)
DIAGRAM 1: HOW TO USE THE TABLES
2050s
MEDIUM EMISSIONS
Summer average
Temperature
6
EASTERN
SCOTLAND
+2.3ºC
(+1.1ºC to +3.9ºC)
The main numbers represent the mid point of the
probability range. There’s a 50% chance the summer
average temperature will be more than 2.3°C hotter
and a 50% chance it will not have increased quite
that much.
The figures in brackets show the range within which
the actual change is likely to be. In this case, the
projections suggest that it is unlikely the increase in
summer average temperature will be less than 1.1°C
or greater than 3.9°C.
And under a medium emissions scenario, by the 2080s, Scotland would expect to see even
greater levels of climate change:
Table 2: Scottish Climate projections by the 2080s under medium emissions
2080s
MEDIUM EMISSIONS
EASTERN
SCOTLAND
NORTHERN
SCOTLAND
WESTERN
SCOTLAND
Summer average
Temperature
+3.5ºC
(+1.8ºC to +5.7ºC)
+3.0ºC
(+1.5ºC to +4.9ºC)
+3.5ºC
(+1.8ºC to +5.4ºC)
Winter average
temperature
+2.3ºC
(+1.0ºC to +3.7ºC)
+2.2ºC
(+0.9ºC to +3.6ºC)
+2.6ºC
(+1.4ºC to +4.0ºC)
Summer average
precipitation
-16%
(-33% to 0%)
-11%
(-29% to +4%)
-15%
(-33% to +1%)
Winter average
precipitation
+12%
(+1% to +25%)
+17%
(+4% to +35%)
+21%
(+6% to +42%)
The level of emissions makes a real difference. Using the high emissions scenario – with high
population growth and continued reliance on fossil fuels – the following changes would be
expected by the 2080s:
Table 3: Scottish climate projections by the 2080s under high emissions
2080s
HIGH EMISSIONS
EASTERN
SCOTLAND
NORTHERN
SCOTLAND
WESTERN
SCOTLAND
Summer average
Temperature
+4.3ºC
(2.2ºC to 7.0ºC)
+3.7ºC
(1.9ºC to 6.0ºC)
+4.3ºC
(2.4ºC to 6.8ºC)
Winter average
temperature
+2.6ºC
(1.3ºC to 4.2ºC)
+2.5ºC
(1.2ºC to 4.1ºC)
+3.1ºC
(1.9ºC to 4.8ºC)
Summer precipitation
-21%
(-40% to -1%)
-16%
(-36% to +4%)
-20%
(-39% to -1%)
Winter precipitation
+19%
(+6% to +36%)
+24%
(+9% to +45%)
+30%
(+12% to +55%)
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SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
Sea level
The projections also show us that over the next century sea level around Scotland is going
to rise. This is due to the global heating and expansion of ocean water and melting from ice
sheets and glaciers. However, in most of Scotland the land surface is actually rising due to
post-glacial rebound. Although this is not rapid enough to negate sea level rise, where
there is positive post-glacial rebound, it reduces the absolute amount we can expect to deal
with. The sea level in Edinburgh is projected to increase by between 10.5 to 18.0 cm by 2050
and 23.4 to 39.2 cm by 2095.
Extreme events
As the climate changes, Scotland will see more extreme weather events. There will be
more extended hot periods; major increases in maximum temperatures nation wide, and
fewer days of snow and frost. There will be longer periods of dry weather in the summer
and the wettest days of the year are likely to be considerably wetter than at present.
Storms
Projections do not currently exist for future storminess at a Scottish level, however the
UK Climate Projections 09 do provide projections for future storm surges and extreme
water levels around the UK.2
Some assessments of the consequences of climate change, such as those referenced
within the Marine and Fisheries Sector Summary, report on storminess for the UK.
Model projections suggest that as a result of a northward shift of storm tracks in the
Northern Hemisphere, there will be a general tendency for a decreased number of storms
but the strongest storms will be even more intense.3 The UK is already seeing stronger
winter storms.
Probability and risk
The projections are available on the web in much greater detail:
http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk.
Users can choose which emissions scenario to use, and decide what probability threshold
to use. This means that they can decide what level of risk they are prepared to bear.
What are the impacts and consequences of these changes?
Climate change will affect many aspects of society, environment and economy and therefore
our day to day lives. It is already presenting challenges for Scotland’s distinctive biodiversity
and habitats, our built environment and infrastructure and remote or coastal communities.
Changes in climate over the coming decades will change life in Scotland significantly.
8
2
The size of surge expected to occur on average about once in 50 years is projected to increase by less than 0.9mm
per year (not including relative mean sea level change) over the 21st century. In most locations this trend cannot
be clearly distinguished from natural variability.
3
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WGI – available at www.ipcc.ch
Some of the consequences from the impacts of climate change are presented here and
further examples are expanded upon in the Sector Summaries that accompany this
document.
Impacts on Scotland’s economic performance4
Z Threats to natural environmental assets, such as soil and water quality, that underpin
vital ecosystem services essential to many sectors
Z Threats to real assets, including increased risk of inland and coastal flooding in many
towns and cities and its affect on critical infrastructure
Z Impacts on the nation’s health assets: people’s health may improve with warmer
weather encouraging more outdoor pursuits. This may, in turn, improve productivity
Z Implications for private sector production as the impacts on domestic and global supply
and demand chains create new threats and opportunities
Z Provision of public services as consequences, such as flooding, may lead to an increased
demand for services in times of emergency
Impacts on Scotland’s natural environment
Z Significant changes to our ecosystems and landscapes within decades
Z Some species of wildlife may move north to Scotland, but species already confined
to high mountains in Scotland are likely to be lost as conditions become unsuitable
Z Rising sea temperatures are already contributing to changes in the distribution of
plankton and fish around Scotland, and the seabird populations that rely on them
Z A decrease in snowfall will impact on species which need snow to survive
Z Longer growing seasons may allow farmers to grow different crops, but milder winters
will bring new pests and diseases to crops, trees, and biodiversity
Z Increases in sea level, especially combined with storm surges, will threaten
coastal habitats
Z Impacts of climate change on hydrology will affect flood risk, water quality and availability
Z Challenges for the management of soils
Impacts on communities and individuals in Scotland
Z Milder winters will mean fewer cold-related deaths and illness
Z Snow-related tourism may suffer as snowfall declines significantly
Z Immediate and long-term health impacts caused by extreme weather events –
disproportionately affecting vulnerable and high risk groups
Z Warmer temperatures may encourage more outdoor recreation
Z Impacts on air quality (e.g. increased likelihood of smog or increased algal or fungal
growth in buildings) may affect respiratory conditions
For further information on the impacts of climate change over the coming century for
Scotland, see the Scottish Climate Change Impacts Partnership at www.sccip.co.uk.
4
The Government’s Economic Strategy sets out a fresh approach to achieve its Purpose of creating a more
successful country, with opportunities for all of Scotland to flourish, through increasing sustainable economic
growth. For more information see: www.scotland.gov.uk
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SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
III: ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE IN
SCOTLAND
Image source Scotland is the Place
The severity of impacts felt in Scotland, such as increases in temperature, is determined by
global climate change. Further changes in climate can only be limited (mitigated) by a global
reduction in greenhouse gases. Research presented by the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) indicates that global greenhouse gas emissions need to peak by 2015
and reduce to between 50% and 85% below year 2000 levels, by 2050, in order to limit global
warming to around 2OC above pre-industrial levels.5 2ºC may not sound like much of an
increase, but it has the potential to inflict significant impacts across the world – threatening
natural resources, food production and the health and safety of millions of people.
5
10
The IPCC ‘Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report’ is available at http://www.ipcc.ch/
Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009
Scotland emits only 0.15% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions but is determined
to act as a model of best practice in tackling climate change. In introducing the Climate
Change (Scotland) Act 2009, the Scottish Government has set a world-leading level of
ambition to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, including:
Z
A target of at least 80% cuts in emissions by 2050;
Z
All 6 Kyoto Protocol6 greenhouse gases;
Z
Emissions from international aviation and shipping;
Z
Systems of annual targets for cuts in emissions; and
Z
An interim target of a cut in emissions of at least 42% by 2020 (against the 1990-95 baseline),
with a power for this to be varied based on expert advice from the UK Committee on
Climate Change.
The Act also establishes the legislative framework to pursue the Scottish Government’s
ambitions to promote climate change adaptation in a number of ways:
Z
Scottish Ministers must lay a programme before the Scottish Parliament, setting out
proposals and policies to meet their climate change adaptation objectives. This must
address risks identified for Scotland in progressive UK Climate Change Risk
Assessments.
Z
Scottish Ministers are required to report annually on progress towards their programme
to adapt to climate change. They must also seek independent scrutiny of their progress
from the UK Committee on Climate Change’s Adaptation Sub-Committee.
Z
Public bodies [as defined in the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002] are required
to exercise their functions in a way which will help deliver the Scottish Government’s
programme for adaptation to climate change (see Box 3).
Z
A land use strategy is required, setting out objectives, proposals and policies relating to
sustainable land use. Sustainable land use will be important to the success of any
climate change adaptation programme.
The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 is supported by the Scottish Government’s climate
change mitigation and adaptation policy and the development of a Public Engagement
Strategy, as indicated in Diagram 2.
6
The six greenhouse gases as defined under the Kyoto Protocol include: carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide, methane,
hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulphur hexafluoride.
11
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
DIAGRAM 2: SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE LEGISLATION AND POLICY
CLIMATE CHANGE (SCOTLAND) ACT 2009
Sets the strategic, long-term aims of the Scottish Government for climate change adaptation and
mitigation and creates the necessary legislative framework to pursue those aims.
SUPPORTING THE AIMS
CLIMATE CHANGE
MITIGATION POLICY
CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION POLICY
The Scottish Government will set out key
measures for emissions reduction in
Scotland in its Report on Proposals and
Policies, building on measures in the
Climate Change Delivery Plan.
The Climate Change Adaptation
Framework creates the strategic
direction and process for ongoing
adaptation to the impacts of
climate change.
Carbon assessments will be integrated
into the Government’s budget process.
Sector Adaptation Action Plans are
developed in consultation with key
stakeholders.
Opportunities to join-up action on
adaptation and mitigation will be sought.
Opportunities to join-up action on
adaptation and mitigation will be sought.
PUBLIC ENGAGEMENT STRATEGY
This statutory policy will develop a systematic engagement strategy to involve the whole of
Scottish society in helping to deliver the Government’s climate change objectives.
For further information on the Climate Change (Scotland) Act or the supporting policies,
go to www.scotland.gov.uk/climatechange.
Taking a planned approach to climate change adaptation
Without informed planning, adaptation will occur spontaneously. However, it is more likely
to be ad hoc, responsive, and lead to less optimal outcomes. Many decisions being taken
now will have to last for many decades. New houses, for example, have a designed life of
60 years, and will most likely last longer. The complex network of infrastructure, which is
full of inter-dependencies, would present huge difficulty to disentangle and relocate.
Planners need to factor the changing climate into their plans now.
In some instances, unco-ordinated adaptation by a number of individuals may accumulate to
give adverse outcomes, such as the effect of increasing flood risk as a result of many small
flood defence measures. If each property independently protects itself from a threatening
riverbank, the effect may simply heighten the risk to those living down stream. Providing a
degree of strategic co-ordination in such situations will limit adverse outcomes and
potentially improve the effectiveness of individual actions to adapt.
We will choose more sustainable planning, design or investment options where the risks
and opportunities associated with changes in our climate have been properly assessed and
understood. Investment into actions to adapt should be pursued where costs are determined
12
to be less than the likely future losses caused by climate change. Costs reflect more than
just monetary considerations, but also the social, environmental, historical or cultural value
held by those involved and affected by the decision. For this reason, adaptation decisions are
often best taken at a local scale, supported by a co-ordinated national adaptation strategy.
Managing for uncertainty
Scotland has world-leading climate modelling,7 presenting probabilistic climate projections
over the coming century. These projections incorporate scientists' latest understanding of
how the climate system operates and how it might change in the future. However, even with
the latest advances in climate projections, we cannot be entirely certain about Scotland's
future climate. The weather from year to year is determined both by the long-term trend of
climate change and the short-term natural variability. This means that not all future
summers will be hot and dry, nor all winters warm and wet even though this is the general
trend expected in future.
This uncertainty should not act as a barrier to adaptation. The intrinsic uncertainty in climate
projections is no greater than in other common projections which form the basis of decision
making, such as demographic change. Furthermore, as the next 30 to 40 years of climate
change are determined by the current levels of emissions in the system, climate projections
over this period are highly likely. As is the case with all future uncertainties, choosing
options that will stand up in the face of a number of likely future scenarios will make
planning more resilient.
Funding adaptation
Climate change adaptation will come at a cost. But there is a bigger cost of not adapting.
Ensuring that Scotland understands the risks and opportunities presented by a changing
climate and is adapting sustainably will require continued investment from government,
the public and private sectors. It will also require the efficient and targeted use of existing
sources of funding. The Scottish Government currently funds adaptation through:
Z
the development of a robust evidence base, such as Government research programmes;
Z
programmes to develop adaptive capacity, such as funding to the Scottish Climate
Change Impacts Partnership; and
Z
policy-specific actions, such as the development of River Basin Management Plans
through Scottish Environment Protection Agency (SEPA).
The current economic situation must not be used as an excuse not to adapt. Where
restructuring becomes necessary, it is an opportunity to plan for a future in which the
climate is not the same as it has been in the past – a future which will not only have a different
climate but also a low carbon economy. If incorporated early enough in development, adaptive
measures may be less costly. The key is to be alert to the impacts of climate change and
see opportunities to adapt as and when they arise. Designing for climate change at the
outset is more cost effective and sustainable than retro-fitting for climate change.
7
The Scottish Government uses UK Climate Projections 2009, found at http://ukclimateprojections.defra.gov.uk
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SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
IV: BUILDING RESILIENCE TO THE IMPACTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE
Image source © Andrew McBride – Scottish Natural Heritage
How great an effect changes in our climate will have on Scotland is determined by
several factors:
14
Z
Exposure: the degree to which Scotland is exposed to change such as increases in
annual temperature.
This Framework will improve our understanding of the consequences of a changing
climate and both the challenges and opportunities it presents;
Z
Adaptive Capacity: the ability of organisations to identify risks or opportunities and take
appropriate action.
This Framework will equip stakeholders with the skills and tools needed to adapt to
changing climate; and
Z
Competing pressures: the degree to which organisations are restricted in their attempt
to adapt due to competing pressures and constraints.
This Framework will assist the integration of adaptation into wider public policy and
regulation so that it is a help, not a hindrance, to addressing climate change issues. 8
8
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) explains that the degree of vulnerability to changes in
climate is determined by a subject's exposure, sensitivity and ability to adapt to that change.
DIAGRAM 3: MODEL FOR ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN SCOTLAND
VULNERABILITY TO CHANGES IN CLIMATE
EXPOSURE
ADAPTIVE CAPACITY
COMPETING PRESSURES
REDUCE EMISSIONS*
ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK ACTIONS
PILLAR 1: Provide
the evidence base
PILLAR 2:
Equip decision
makers with
skills & tools
PILLAR 3: Integrate
adaptation into regulation
and public policy
DELIVER ADAPTATION ACTIONS THAT ARE SENSITIVE TO LOCAL NEEDS
AIM: increase the resilience of Scotland’s communities, and the
natural and economic systems on which they depend,
to the impacts of climate change
* Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework will focus on achieving climate change adaptation but opportunities
to reduce emissions will also be sought.
15
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
PILLAR I: PROVIDE THE EVIDENCE BASE
Decisions on adaptation should be informed by robust scientific research into the impacts
of climate change, vulnerabilities to those impacts and effectiveness of adaptation options.
Providing broad distribution and easily accessible information will encourage the
involvement of a greater cross-section of society in adaptation decision making.
Supporting the development of climate models
Computer simulation models that produce projections of how our climate may change
provide valuable information for more robust development of plans and policies. The UK
is one of only a few countries to produce national climate projections. These models
incorporate all the aspects of the atmosphere that may influence climate, such as solar
energy, natural and man-made emissions and the influence of land mass.
The UK Climate Projections 2009 provide users with unprecedented ability to drill down into
more localised projections, showing probabilities of changes down to 25km squares. They are
interactive, allowing organisations to run their own weather generation models to get data
for their own area over a desired timescale. Organisations can decide for themselves what
level of risk they are prepared to bear. The Scottish Government will continue to work with
partners such as the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) to develop resources that
present more localised information, derived from this modelling. This will enable
organisations to prepare for a changing climate in a more tailored way.
Scotland's universities are also playing a world-leading role in modelling climate change
and researching mitigation and adaptation strategies.9
Assessing the risks and opportunities presented by changes in climate
To fully assess the potential risks and opportunities of a changing climate in Scotland, we
must not only understand the likelihood and degree of change, we must also understand
the consequences of that change and the costs of prevention. The direct and indirect
impacts of a changing climate on our environment, economy and society must be better
understood as well as how people can be motivated to adapt appropriately.
The Scottish Government will continue to support sector-specific research to understand
the risks and opportunities presented by climate change through mechanisms such as
the Scottish Government Research Strategy. We are also supporting multi-disciplinary
initiatives which draw conclusions from across sectors to better inform our understanding
of the complex interplays between sectors and secondary impacts. This will assist in
preventing the adaptation actions of one sector having a detrimental effect on other sectors.
One such initiative is the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (UKCCRA) which will,
when published by January 2012, form a key evidence base for the next programme
period of Scotland’s Climate Change Adaptation Framework. The UKCCRA will provide an
9
16
Research and knowledge exchange initiatives being led by Scottish universities will play a vital role not only in
building the evidence base on climate change but also in disseminating the results. There are several examples,
including the Scottish Alliance of Geoscience, Environment and Society (SAGES) and Edinburgh University’s
Climate Change Network.
understanding of the likelihood and scale of impacts on Scotland, allowing Government to
more effectively target its adaptation response by sector and geographically.
This work will include an economic assessment of adaptation options to those risks
highlighted by the UKCCRA. This will assist the Government to ensure effective investment
of public funds and to better understand the costs of inaction. Where costs and benefits are
difficult to monetise, as is often the case with social and environmental value, the economic
assessment will consider alternative metrics that may be more suitable.
As required by the UK Climate Change Act 2008, a full public consultation on the UKCCRA
will be held in 2011 and the work will be peer reviewed by the multi-disciplinary Adaptation
Sub-Committee of the UK Committee on Climate Change.
Co-ordinating research agendas
A great deal of research is being done by academic, industry and government bodies across
Scotland, the UK and beyond. There is much to be gained from improving the knowledge
base through a strategic approach to research and participating in partnerships, such as
Living with Environmental Change.10 The Scottish Government will continue to be an active
participant and supporter in such initiatives to ensure the value of multi-disciplinary
research is recognised and gaps in research needs are filled. It will also be important that
research from across sectors is represented in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment.
Furthermore, because climate change is a global issue, we will continue to look for
opportunities in better co-ordinating research and knowledge transfer with our European
and International partners.
Improving dissemination of research and knowledge
An evidence base for adaptation decisions will not solely be derived from commissioning
new research. Considerable amounts of valuable existing research and ongoing monitoring
is collected by various agencies, private and third sector organisations, which can complement
the more conceptual climate change modelling data. Better access to this existing knowledge
base would allow organisations to make more informed decisions about adaptation,
potentially recognising issues earlier. The Scottish Government will work with partners
to promote a more consistent approach to monitoring, data collection and use.
The Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership’s (MCCIP) annual Report Card11 provides an
excellent example of disseminating results in a manner specifically targeted at end-users.
The Scottish Government will continue to work with partners such as MCCIP, SCCIP and
broader sector partners to identify effective channels for dissemination of adaptation
research and best practice. Where possible, we will seek to utilise existing communication
channels that have shown to be effective in reaching their stakeholder group.
In addition, a number of new virtual communities will be developed to support users of the
2009 UK Climate Projections, facilitated through the SCCIP website.
10 For further information, see www.nerc.ac.uk/research/programmes/lwec
11 For further information, see www.mccip.org.uk/arc
17
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
PILLAR II: EQUIP DECISION MAKERS WITH SKILLS & TOOLS
Climate change is an issue that no government can address alone. Success will depend
on governments leading by example as well as individuals and organisations from across
sectors preparing for a changing climate now. We must foster an adaptation approach that
incorporates both leadership and guidance while encouraging a grass-roots development of
innovative responses.
Communicating a consistent and effective message
Communicating information about impacts and options for adapting is vital for building
resilience to change. For many people, climate change is the preserve of scientists and
other experts. To create some clarity amongst the confusion of messages about climate
change, the Scottish Government is working with partners across the public sector to
develop consistent information and advice. Together, we are developing a stock of publicly
available guidance, GIS maps12 and messages to help individuals and organisations adapt.
For example, the Scottish Government has increased funding to SCCIP to develop a
database of freely available resources such as Scottish maps and messages derived from
the UK Climate Projections 2009.
Improved targeting of awareness raising
Awareness raising is required with a greater sense of urgency at every level through
improved targeting of specific sectors or groups. Communication of information about
adaptation is challenging: information on adaptation must often be tailored for specific
audiences, sectors and circumstances. We must communicate with those who plan and
make key decisions within organisations as well as the general public. Public support is
needed to implement many adaptation activities and this will require an appreciation of the
importance of adaptation and potential costs of inaction.
Education on the nature of climate risks and how they can be managed can start at school,
as children learn about becoming ‘responsible citizens’ through the Curriculum for
Excellence.13 However, it cannot stop there. The Scottish Government will seek innovative
ways to raise awareness and provide information to all sectors of society, including those
who have been less involved in the public debate.
Working with education providers, the third sector and industry bodies, the Government will
tailor and distribute information and guidance. The Scottish Government’s Climate Change
Public Engagement Strategy will contribute to building public confidence by developing a
systematic engagement strategy to involve the whole of Scottish society in helping deliver
the Government’s climate change objectives. The Engagement Strategy is required to be
published by the end of 2010.
12 Geographic Information System maps presents data that is linked to a location.
13 For further information, see www.ltscotland.org.uk/curriculumforexcellence
18
Providing the right tools for the job
It is not enough to raise awareness of the urgency to adapt to the changes in climate
Scotland is facing. Support is required to develop the capacity to use the available evidence
base in risk management and decision making processes. High-quality climate information
and tools for risk management will help to drive efficient market responses to climate
change challenges.14 However, there cannot be a ‘toolkit’ for every individual organisation
or adaptation question. Organisations hold the greatest expertise on their businesses and
local areas and must be encouraged to develop their own solutions. Many user-specific
tools are already freely available but remain under utilised across the public and private
sectors in Scotland. Some examples of the range of tools currently available to help assess
the risks and opportunities related to climate change are presented in Box 2.
The Scottish Government will continue to fund SCCIP as a central hub of free information
and access to tools for organisations seeking to adapt in Scotland. Improvements to the
SCCIP website will make it easier to locate sector-based information and tools.
BOX 1: SCOTTISH CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS PARTNERSHIP
The Scottish Government supports a free information and resource hub in Scotland.
The Scottish Climate Change Impacts Partnership (SCCIP) has been established to
increase the resilience of Scottish organisations and infrastructure to meet the
challenges and opportunities presented by the impacts of climate change.
SCCIP endeavours to increase the awareness and preparedness of organisations
affected by climate change and, where appropriate, by facilitating their adaptation to
the unavoidable consequences of our changing climate. The Partnership’s website –
www.sccip.org.uk – is the primary source of information and resources for individuals
and organisations in Scotland interested in climate change adaptation.
14 The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change, see www.sternreview.org.uk
19
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
BOX 2: EXAMPLES OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION TOOLS
UK Climate Projections 2009
The UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) were created to be used by people working in
all sorts of organisations in the UK. The Projections contain information on observed
and future climate change, based on the latest scientific understanding. They can help
assess the impacts of climate change on, for example, a habitat, production process
or a structure. http://ukcp09.defra.gov.uk/content/view/18/7/
Climate Adaptation Resource for Advisors (CLARA)
Climate change will have several implications for small business. However, busy
managers of small businesses often find it difficult to plan for a future climate which
seems so uncertain and far off. This resource is primarily aimed at helping business
advisors to support small and medium enterprises prepare for the impacts of climate
change. However, the factsheets are also designed to be accessed directly by the
business community.
http://www.ukcip.org.uk/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=531&Itemid=547
Local Climate Impact Profile
A Local Climate Impact Profile (LCLIP) is a resource that Local Authorities can
compile so that they better understand their exposure to weather and climate. It is
based on evidence of a locality's vulnerability to severe weather events and in
particular how these events have affected the local community as well as the
authority's assets and capacity to deliver services. Several completed LCLIPS in
Scotland showed that risk management, emergency planning and adaptation to
climate change were viewed as separate issues.
http://www.sccip.org.uk/Projects/Default.aspx?pid=39
Developing skills and sharing best practice
Through the Adaptation Framework, we wish to foster the right conditions to unleash
innovative adaptation actions across Scotland. We will need to ensure we have the skills to
effectively adapt to climate change. Learning from each other will be an important part of
developing adaptation expertise in Scotland. This will encourage skills that are, at present,
considered too specialist to be mainstreamed. For example, ‘green roof’15 construction
could become mainstreamed knowledge across the construction industry. The Scottish
Government supports the development of forums to share best practice and highlight
research and guidance needs, such as the sector-specific user communities being
developed through SCCIP.
15 ‘Green roof’ construction incorporates a living sedum roof that offers benefits such as absorbing rainwater and
carbon dioxide while producing oxygen and providing natural ventilation.
20
PILLAR III: INTEGRATE ADAPTATION INTO REGULATION & PUBLIC POLICY
The effectiveness of adaptation policies will be affected by many other policies, making it
important that climate change policy is integrated across sectors. Wherever possible,
regulation and public policy should assist, rather than hinder, stakeholders to address the
issues of climate change and to adapt sustainably.
Providing leadership on climate change adaptation
The Scottish Government must lead by example, integrating adaptation into its development
processes. Through the Climate Change (Scotland) Act, policy and corporate instruments,
a risk management and accountability structure has been established to ensure the
ongoing integration of climate change adaptation into government. The governance
structure to integrate climate change adaptation into the Scottish Government is outlined
below.
DIAGRAM 4: SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT GOVERNANCE OF CLIMATE
CHANGE ADAPTATION
UK COMMITTEE ON
CLIMATE CHANGE
ADAPTATION
SUB-COMMITTEE
Provides advice and
scrutiny of progress
to Scottish Ministers
SCOTTISH MINISTERS
Report annually to Scottish Parliament on progress against
their programme to adapt to climate change
CLIMATE CHANGE DELIVERY BOARD
A senior, cross-Government management board responsible
for delivering the provisions under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act
CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
KEY STAKEHOLDER GROUP
To represent social,
environmental and
economic interest groups
across Scotland
Sets strategic policy and coordinates Sector Action Plans
Emergency and
rescue services
Health and wellbeing
Marine and fisheries
Business and
Industry
Energy
The built
environment
Transport
Spatial planning and
land use
Biodiversity and
ecosystem resilience
Forests and forestry
Agiculture
Water resource
management
Sector Action Plans
The Climate Change Delivery Board is a forum for senior Government officials to provide
oversight and strategic direction across both climate change mitigation and adaptation
policy development. In taking forward the Government’s climate change objectives, the
Delivery Board will provide a mechanism to reduce the risk of conflicts between policy
priorities and, where they do arise, to address and resolve them.
21
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
Under the strategic direction of the Climate Change Adaptation Framework, various Sector
Action Plans will be developed to address the issues specific to that sector. These Plans will
be led and developed by Scottish Government sector leads, in consultation with relevant
sector stakeholders.
Integrate adaptation into Scottish regulation
In taking forward Sector Action Plans, the Scottish Government will continue to work with
stakeholders to identify and address barriers to adaptation in Scottish regulation. For example,
the Scottish Government has established greater control for SEPA to adjust water abstractions
when water resources are under stress due to low flows or drought in order to protect the
water environment.16
It is expected that the development of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment will also assist
the Scottish Government in identifying regulatory barriers to adaptation. Furthermore, the
Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 will address numerous barriers to adaptation action
within the public sector, by imposing a legal requirement for all public bodies to exercise
their functions in a way best calculated to help deliver the Scottish Government’s climate
change adaptation objectives. Statutory guidance will be provided to public bodies to help
them adapt to climate change and better understand their requirements under this duty.
Integrate adaptation into Scottish public policy
In taking forward Sector Action Plans, the Scottish Government will continue to work with
stakeholders to identify and address barriers to adaptation in Scottish policy.
For example, an important element of the approach to integrating adaptation is the
consideration of ecosystem services across the broad span of public policy. “Ecosystem
services” is a description of the range of benefits that our society and economy enjoy from
nature, including resources such as food and timber, protection such as flood management,
and cultural services such as recreation. By including a consideration of the impact on
ecosystem services in policy making, including the likely impact of climate change on the
levels of ecosystem services and the biodiversity that underpins them, we can ensure that
we protect the level of benefits that society enjoys from nature. Such an ‘ecosystem
approach’ will be relevant to many of the sectors considered under the Adaptation
Framework, with the leading consideration of ecosystem resilience in the face of climate
change considered within the Biodiversity Sector Summary.
In addition to addressing barriers to adaptation in existing policy and regulation, the
Government is also developing methods to integrate adaptation into future development.
16 Water Environment (Controlled Activities) (Scotland) Regulations 2005
22
Climate change adaptation tools for policy makers include:
Z
Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA) – Most public sector plans, programmes and
strategies which are likely to have significant environmental effects must be subject to
an SEA. In considering the effects, responsible authorities must assess climatic factors,
including adaptation implications.
Z
Sustainable Development Checklist – In the development of primary legislation, officials
use this checklist which requires consideration to be given towards the extent that changes
in our climate will impact on the success of the proposal.
23
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
V: SECTOR ROLES AND RESPONSIBILITIES
Climate change is an issue that no government can address in isolation. Success will depend
on organisations, businesses and communities across Scotland accepting responsibility and
preparing for a changing climate now. In taking the adaptation agenda forward, the Government
will work collaboratively with a range of local, national and international partners.
The role of government
It is vital that the government provides clear leadership in promoting a sustainable approach
to climate change adaptation. The Scottish Government is leading by example with the
introduction of ambitious legislation to drive adaptation in Scotland and by integrating
adaptation into its policies and corporate structure. The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009
places duties on Scottish Ministers and public bodies to prepare for the impacts of climate
change Scotland faces now and in the future. To integrate adaptation effectively across the
Scottish Government, a management structure that establishes accountability and
encourages cross-policy involvement has been developed (refer to Diagram 4).
Effective leadership also requires government to provide clear advice and guidance, helping
sectors across society to better understand their role in addressing climate change and
ensuring easy access to necessary information and tools. The Scottish Government will
provide guidance to public sector partners on fulfilling their climate change adaptation
duty as required by section 45 of the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009. Guidance and
information for third and business sector partners, communities and individuals will be
primarily disseminated through SCCIP.
24
Another key challenge for the Scottish Government is to establish practices to promote
the integration of adaptation into sectoral policies. The establishment of the senior
cross-government Climate Change Delivery Board and Sector Action Plans will assist in
mainstreaming the issue across policy areas. By providing co-ordination across boundaries
of organisations’ responsibilities, the Government will encourage both private and public
action and can ensure a long-term approach to public goods, such as natural resource
protection. Co-ordination will be provided through:
Z
development of key national strategies, such as the Land Use Strategy and the National
Planning Framework;
Z
through establishment of forums such as the Rural Land Use Study; and
Z
support of consistent public sector advice.
More targeted support may be required for the poorest in society, who are likely to be
most vulnerable to the impacts and least able to afford protection. Government must work
closely with local emergency service providers, the Third sector and community groups to
ensure that Scotland is prepared for more frequent extreme weather events and the, often,
long lasting effects they can have. Government will also continue to work with the UK
Financial Inclusion Taskforce17 to promote the uptake of contents insurance by the more
vulnerable members of society.
Working with the private sector
Climate change implications for business, through failure to assess and manage climate
risks, are significant. Impacts will be felt by every business irrespective of their size,
location, markets, products or services, and will affect investors, customers and the
business workforce itself. These impacts are wide ranging, and will include such diverse
implications as security of supply chains and natural resources for raw materials to
implications for workforces and the operational performance of assets. Businesses should
be thinking about ‘outward-facing adaptation’ (relating to business risk and opportunities)
as well as ‘inward-facing adaptation’ (relating to employees’ skills or health and safety). 18
Research suggests that levels of concern about the risk to business from climate change
remains too low.
17 The Financial Inclusion Taskforce is an independent body appointed to advise HM Treasury and to monitor and
evaluate progress on its financial inclusion goals. For further information see:
www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/fit_index.htm
18 Firth, J. and Colley, M. (2006) – The Adaptation Tipping Point: Are UK Businesses Climate Proof? Acclimatise and
UKCIP, Oxford.
25
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
We know that change is essential, and that business, through engaging its workforce and
by influencing its customers, has a huge role to play in being a catalyst for this change.
Businesses thrive on opportunity, and the climate change challenge we face must be sold
to business as an opportunity for new markets, to strengthen supplier relations (and their
resilience to climate change) and to increase brand loyalty to name a few. Opportunity in
turn leads to innovation, and there is no doubt that the business sector is best placed to both
lead and capitalize on new and innovative technologies. This in turn will support Scotland in
reaching the ambitious climate change objectives set by the Scottish Government and will
provide economic growth in a developing sector. It will also limit Scotland's environmental
impact and provide the support and infrastructure needed to adapt to the inevitable climatic
changes that will occur in the next 50 years.
The Scottish Government supports a range of environmental agencies providing on the
ground practical support and guidance, both in terms of mitigation and more recently
adaption. Through its support of the Prince’s May Day Network in Scotland and the Climate
Change Business Delivery Group, the Scottish Government has identified the importance of
working collaboratively with the business sector in outlining and leading the strategic
direction needed to combat the effects of climate change.
The role of the public sector
Scotland's public sector has a central contribution to make in helping Scotland build its
resilience to a changing climate: through the development of evidence and research,
provision of guidance and services, delivery of adaptation measures and through direct
management of built and natural estates.
The Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009 requires all public bodies [as listed in Schedule 2
to the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002] to exercise their functions in a way that
helps deliver the Scottish Ministers’ programme for adaptation to climate change, as laid
before the Scottish Parliament. The Scottish Government will look to the public sector to
inform its understanding of risks and opportunities presented by changes in climate in
Scotland and to take a lead in developing effective adaptation responses.
In considering the adaptation of their own systems and assets, public sector organisations
should also consider the adaptation of the systems and assets of others that are influenced
by their policy decisions. Knowledge should be shared between the various public bodies
and with private organisations, such as Small and Medium Sized Enterprises (SMEs), which
may not have the same capacity to lead on adaptation. The SCCIP website presents a useful
portal for sharing best practice between public sector organisations and broader private
and community sectors, but direct engagement is also needed.
26
Several of Scotland's key public agencies19 have already published their own climate change
action plans. Organisations should pursue partnership working and align their work with
relevant stakeholder plans to benefit from a consistent adaptation approach.
The Scottish Government will continue to work across the public sector to develop greater
understanding of organisations’ roles and responsibilities in responding to climate change.
We will develop, in consultation, statutory guidance for public bodies on fulfilling their
duties as set out under the Climate Change (Scotland) Act (see Box 3) and continue to work
with SCCIP to ensure an ongoing programme of training and guidance.
BOX 3: PUBLIC BODIES DUTIES
The Climate Change (Scotland) Act places climate change duties on public bodies in
Scotland [as listed by Schedule 2 of the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002].
In exercising their functions, those public bodies must act:
Z
in the way best calculated to contribute to delivery of the Act’s emissions reduction
targets;
Z
in the way best calculated to deliver any statutory adaptation programme; and
Z
in a way that it considers most sustainable.
The Act also contains powers to enable the Scottish Ministers to create further duties
and to introduce reporting and monitoring requirements. There are no current plans
to use these powers but they would be available if the Scottish Ministers determined
that the public sector response was inadequate to manage the risks posed by climate
change. The Scottish Government will continue to work with public sector service
providers to help them understand their risk and their role in building a more
resilient Scotland.
The role of local government
Scotland’s communities will often be in the front line in responding to the impacts of climate
change and local authorities are ideally placed to lead the community response to climate
change. With knowledge of local values, industries and landscapes, local government
allows adaptation actions to be tailored effectively to localised impacts of climate change.
Local authorities can also work in partnership with their broader community of local estate
managers, employers, community leaders and planning partners in preparing for a
changing climate.
19 The Scottish Environment Protection Agency, Forestry Commission Scotland, Historic Scotland and Scottish
Natural Heritage have developed climate change actions plans and have worked together to identify synergies for
taking action forward.
27
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
In 2007, all 32 Scottish local authorities showed their commitment to acting on climate
change by signing Scotland’s Climate Change Declaration. This represented a voluntary
commitment to take action to reduce emissions and adapt to the unavoidable impacts of
climate change. The Scottish Government is working with the Convention of Scottish Local
Authorities (COSLA) and the Society of Local Authority Chief Executives (SOLACE) to embed
the Declaration work within the Single Outcome Agreement process.20
Given the important role of local authorities in supporting communities to adapt to the impacts
of climate change, the Scottish Government is committed to developing the adaptive capacity
of local government.
The Scottish Government is encouraging local authorities, in partnership with Community
Planning Partners, to assess risks and opportunities from the impacts of climate change to
service provision and assets. Completion of a Local Climate Impact Profile (see Box 2)
provides a useful reference for such a risk assessment, and assistance in this work is being
provided to local authorities through SCCIP.
Local authorities are now subject to the public bodies duties as outlined in Box 3. Guidance
on what this duty will mean in practice will be developed in cooperation with COSLA and
local authorities and will be supported by an ongoing programme of guidance and training
through SCCIP. Where appropriate, the Government will encourage the development of
consistent approaches to assessments and reporting, however sometimes a more specific
approach will be required to take account of local geography.
The role of local communities
Community support will be required to implement many adaptation activities and there must
be a general awareness of why it is so important that Scotland prepares for a changing climate
and what the costs of inaction may be. Communities also present immense potential for the
development of innovative, grass root responses to the challenges of climate change.
To support this process, the Scottish Government is working with SCCIP and UKCIP to
provide better information on what climate change may mean for local areas. We will
continue to work with local government to provide adaptation support to community groups.
For example, a resource to assist local government communicate and raise awareness
among local community and business groups has been made freely available through the
SCCIP website.21
20 Single Outcome Agreements (SOAs) are the overarching strategic documents for each council, agreed between
Local Authorities and their Community Planning Partnerships and with the Scottish Government. These documents
outline key local priorities in each council that contribute towards Scotland’s shared national outcomes.
21 Communication toolkit available at www.sccipcommstoolkit.org.uk
28
When engaging communities in discussions about climate change, the Scottish Government
and local government must consider how social impacts may be most effectively addressed
in adaptation measures to ensure existing inequalities do not widen with climate change.
Research suggests that not only are the most deprived people often more exposed to
specific climate change impacts, they also find it harder to recover when they occur. 22 The
individuals and groups most likely to be affected by climate change include: children and
young people; those with health problems; with poor mobility; living in places at risk; with
low levels of income; who lack awareness of the risks of climate change; who lack
insurance cover; and who are less well supported by family, friends and agencies.
The Scottish Government will continue to integrate equality considerations as we develop
various specific policies contributing to adaptation through the systematic use of Equalities
Impact Assessments. Furthermore, the Government will continue to work with the Third
sector who deliver essential assistance to vulnerable groups.
The role of the Third sector
The Scottish Government recognises the pivotal role the Third sector has in achieving its
aim of building Scotland's resilience to the impacts of climate change. The sector has
immense potential to link up grassroots community action, communicate policy initiatives,
and run training programmes – connecting with the 25% of people in Scotland who turn to
an environmental group or charity in the first instance to provide them with information on
climate change.23 The Third sector is often best placed to connect with individuals that the
public sector finds hardest to reach, working with the most vulnerable in our society and
helping tackle the ‘equality gap’ which could be widened by the impacts of climate change.
The Third sector also provides a valuable contribution to the collection of data, through their
networks of staff and volunteers who observe wildlife and undertake research, as well as
providing advice about managing protected areas and other valuable habitats.
The Scottish Government will support and work with the Third sector to offer targeted
support to those most impacted by climate change. We will look to the Third sector to help
develop our understanding of how the impacts of climate change are already being felt by
Scotland’s communities and the natural environment, and in the development of
sustainable methods to adapt to this change.
22 SNIFFER UKCC22 Differential Social Impacts of Climate Change in the UK see: www.sniffer.org.uk
23 Scottish Environmental Attitudes and Behaviours Survey 2008 see:
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications/2009/03/05145056/0
29
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
Working with our UK and international partners
Climate change is a global challenge and Scotland will not be immune to the effects of
impacts felt in other regions. The Adaptation Framework will implement climate change
adaptation at a domestic level, however international developments will affect our domestic
policies. Global impacts of climate change likely to influence domestic policy include: 24
Z
Economic impacts and trade: impacts on global natural resources can affect the
production, supply, quality, transport and price of various traded commodities worldwide.
Foreign investment may be influenced by heightened risks or emergency opportunities.
Z
International policy making: climate polices negotiated within the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change and among EU member states will clearly
have a strong influence on national policy making.
Z
Security: the opening of new sea routes, improved access to natural resources, conflicts
over water and arable land exacerbated by climate change impacts could alter the
economic, geopolitical and territorial relationships between and within some countries
with consequent impacts on physical, human and economic security.
Z
Migration: resource scarcity (e.g. water), unrest and natural disasters exacerbated by
climate change could result in increased levels of environmentally induced migration.
In taking the Adaptation Framework forward, the Scottish Government will need to consider
the global impacts of climate change and the implications – the risks and opportunities –
they will present for domestic policy.25 It is the Scottish Government’s view that there would
be benefits if Scotland had full control over all policy issues and to represent Scotland’s
views directly in EU and international fora, as would be the case under independence.26
Irrespective of the constitutional position, the Scottish Government will seek to work openly
with a range of partners beyond its national borders, including the UK Government and EU
Commission. The UK Government, Welsh Assembly Government and Northern Ireland
Assembly are all pursuing climate change adaptation in their respective jurisdictions.
However, it is recognised that coherence across the Administrations is needed, particularly
on cross-border issues. To facilitate this, an Adapting to Climate Change UK Group 27 has
been established to agree mechanisms for delivering cross-government cooperation on
climate change adaptation.
24 Swart et al., Europe Adapts to Climate Change: Comparing National Adaptation Strategies, June 2009 see:
www.peer.eu
25 International policy making, security and migration policy remained reserved to the UK Government.
26 For further information on Scotland under independence see Rural Affairs, Environment and Climate Change:
Taking Forward our National conversation at: www.anationalconversion.com
27 http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climatechange/adapt/programme/uk-adaptation.htm
30
In line with aims of the Scottish Government’s International Framework,28 the Adaptation
Framework will also support Scotland as a responsible nation and partner on the world
stage. Evidence shows that developing countries are most at risk from current and future
impacts of climate change and least able to adapt to increased risk of drought, disease,
flooding, heat waves, rising sea levels and other impacts of climate change.29 Through the
Adaptation Framework, the Government will seek to increase opportunities to share best
practice and research with developing countries to assist in building their adaptive capacity.
Many examples of such knowledge transfer are already being taken forward by Scotland’s
research institutes and the Scottish Government will seek to enhance this activity through
its funding and priority setting levers.
28 For further information on the Scottish Government International Framework see:
www.scotland.gov.uk/Publications
29 The Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change, see www.sternreview.org.uk
31
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
VI: MEASURING AND REPORTING PROGRESS
Image source Scotland is the Place
Appropriate measurement and reporting of the Government’s progress towards achieving
the aim of the Adaptation Framework is necessary for transparency and accountability.
Related assessments and progress reports are numbered and illustrated in Diagram 5.
SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT
REPORTING
DIAGRAM 5: REPORTING ON CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION
OTHER REPORTING
2009
Publish
Adaptation
Framework
2009-2012
Progress
Report
2010
Publish
Adaptation
Framework
2013-2017 (2)
Progress
Report
2011
Progress
Report
2012
Progress
Report (3)
2013
Publish
Adaptation
Framework
2018-2022 (2)
Progress
Report (3)
2014
Progress
Report (3)
2015
Progress
Report (3)
2016
UK Climate
Change Risk
Assessment
(1)
2017
2018
UK Climate
Change Risk
Assessment
(1)
UK Committee
on Climate Change
Assessment
(4)
32
Progress
Report (3)
UK Committee
on Climate Change
Assessment
(4)
1
The Climate Change Act 2008 requires the publication of a UK Climate Change Risk
Assessment (UKCCRA) each five years, with the first to be published by January 2012.
It is appropriate for this to occur on a five-yearly basis as many of the measures of
climate change impacts will not change significantly in a shorter timeframe.
The Scottish Government is a co-funder of this work and the UKCCRA will consider
risks specific to Scottish spatial areas and sectors. Successive UKCCRAs will allow us
to chart whether Scotland’s vulnerability has decreased against previous findings.
2
Following the publication of each UKCCRA, the Climate Change (Scotland) Act 2009
requires Scottish Ministers to lay a programme to adapt to climate change before the
Scottish Parliament. This programme must include the Scottish Government’s
intentions for managing for the risks presented in the UKCCRA. Each programme will
also include a comprehensive review of the effectiveness of the previous programme,
where applicable.
3
The Climate Change (Scotland) Act also requires Scottish Ministers to provide an
annual report on progress towards achieving the actions set out in their programme
to adapt to climate change.
4
To provide an independent assessment of the Government’s progress in implementing
actions under the programme to adapt to climate change, the UK Committee on
Climate Change’s Adaptation Sub-Committee will provide a mid and end-term report
on progress. In the event of a Scottish climate change advisory body being established,
this function would revert to the Scottish body.
This Adaptation Framework represents a non-statutory forerunner, necessary to have systems
in place to deliver the statutory requirements that come into force in 2012. There is no
statutory requirement to report on its progress, but there is a commitment from Scottish
Ministers to report progress annually.
33
SCOTLAND’S CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION FRAMEWORK
VII: GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Adaptation – The adjustment in economic, social or natural systems in response to actual or
expected climatic change, to limit harmful consequences and exploit beneficial opportunities.
Marine Climate Change Impacts Partnership (MCCIP) – A UK wide partnership between
scientists, government, its agencies and non-governmental organisations, which provides
high-quality marine climate change impacts evidence and advice to policy advisors and
decision makers.
Mitigation – The implementation of policies and actions to reduce greenhouse gas
emissions and enhance carbon storage.
Regulation – A governmental or ministerial legal order which imposes specific rules, provisions
or restrictions on particular activities. For effective sustainable adaptation, it is important to
ensure that, wherever possible, regulation assists, rather than hinders activities to address
the issues of climate change.
Scottish Climate Change Impacts Partnership (SCCIP) – A free information and resource
hub which focuses on helping individuals and organisations in Scotland adapt to the
unavoidable impacts of climate change. Its core aim is to “increase the resilience of
organisations and infrastructure in Scotland to meet the challenges and opportunities
presented by the impacts of climate change”.
UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) – UKCIP helps organisations to adapt to inevitable
climate change. It works with the public, private and voluntary sectors to assess how a
changing climate will affect everything from construction and demand for goods and
services, to biodiversity and health.
UK Climate Projections 2009 – A major product produced by UKCIP is the UK Climate
Projections 2009. These represent the most comprehensive package of future climate
information available for the UK to date. They provide probabilistic projections of climate
change up to 2099 over both land and sea and contain sub-surface marine data and a
weather generator to produce statistical daily and hourly data.
34
© Crown copyright 2009
This document is also available on the Scottish Government website:
www.scotland.gov.uk
RR Donnelley B62211 12/09
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