College of Business Administration
State of the State’s
Nebraska presented to the
NABE Economic Policy Conference
March 9, 2015
Eric Thompson
Director, Bureau of Business Research
University of Nebraska-Lincoln ethompson2@unl.edu
www.bbr.unl.edu
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College of Business Administration
• Let’s discuss the Nebraska economy
– What is its fundamental nature?
– What is its industrial nature?
• And, a bit of an economic forecast here and there as well
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College of Business Administration
• Fully recovered from the recession
• The land of the good résumé
• A blue-collar bastion
• Slow growing population
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College of Business Administration
• Agricultural Industrial Complex
• Transportation
• Insurance
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College of Business Administration
Fully Recovered From Recession
Measure
(Source: BLS)
2007
Year
2014
Nebraska
Non-Farm Employment (1000s) 962
Unemployment Rate 3.0%
978
3.3%
United States
Non-Farm Employment (1000s) 137,936
Unemployment Rate 4.6%
139,042
6.2%
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College of Business Administration
The Land of the Good Résumé
American Community Survey (2013)
Measure
High School Attainment
Nebraska U.S.
90.2% 86.6%
College Attainment 29.4% 29.6%
Labor Force Participation Rate 69.9% 63.6%
Mean Usual Hours Worked 39.2
38.5
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College of Business Administration
Measure
A Blue-Collar Bastion
(Sources: BEA, BLS)
NE U.S.
Ag & Forestry Percent GDP (2013) 10.4% 1.6%
Manufacturing Percent Jobs (2014) 9.8% 8.8%
Transportation &
Warehousing Percent Jobs (2014) 5.1% 3.3%
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College of Business Administration
Slow Growing Population
(Sources: Census)
Nebraska Cumulative Population Growth 2010-14
Measure Number Percent
Total
Natural
55,162
45,827
Net Domestic Migration -5,443
International Migration 15,473
3.0%
2.5%
-0.3%
0.8%
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College of Business Administration
Agricultural Production Cluster
Competitive Position of Nebraska
#1 in irrigated acres with nine million acres
#1 in commercial red meat production
#1 (tied with Texas) for cattle-on-feed numbers
#2 in corn-based ethanol production
#3 in corn for grain production
#4 in soybean production
#5 in all hay production
#6 in all hogs and pigs, and
#7 in hog slaughtering
Source: Nebraska Department of Agriculture
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College of Business Administration
The Other Source of Nebraska’s Advantage
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College of Business Administration
Farm Incomes Will Be Maintained
Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Annual Farm Income
$3.2 billion
$3.9 billion
$7.3 billion
$5.3 billion
$8.4 billion
$5.3 billion
$4.9 billion
$4.9 billion
$4.8 billion
Sources: USDA and UNL Bureau of Business Research
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College of Business Administration
• Strong Agricultural Sector
• Rail Industry Center
• Interstate 80 Location
• Skilled Workforce
• Entrepreneurship
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College of Business Administration
• Historic Cluster
• Agglomeration – Abundant Industry Labor
• UNL Actuarial Science Programs
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College of Business Administration
Employment Outlook (1000s)
Year
2007
2014
2015
2016
2017
Transportation &
Warehousing
56.2
52.2
52.7
53.5
54.6
Financial
Services
68.7
72.3
73.0
73.8
74.7
Sources: BLS and UNL Bureau of Business Research
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College of Business Administration
Non-Farm Employment Growth Forecast
2.0%
1.8%
1.6%
1.4%
1.2%
1.0%
0.8%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.0%
1.8%
1.1%
1.6%
1.1%
1.5%
1.1%
2015
United States
2016
Nebraska
2017
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College of Business Administration
Other Growth Indicators
Measure 2015
Non-Farm Personal Income 3.7%
Rate of Growth
2016
4.0%
2017
3.9%
Farm Income
Population
-7.0%
0.7%
0.2%
0.6%
-2.0%
0.6%
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College of Business Administration
Any Questions
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