Housing Affordability
Bureau of Business Research, UNL, September 14, 2015
Eric Thompson, Director (ethompson2@unl.edu; 402.472.3318)
www.bbr.unl.edu
Housing Affordability Index
2nd Quarter 2015
247
246
Tri-County
Norfolk
237
Scotts Bluff
County
281
Midlands
299
Omaha Area
295
Lincoln County
237
Hastings
221
Grand Island
411
Dakota County
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Note: A housing affordability index captures the ability of a median income family to purchase a median
price existing single family home. An index value of 100 indicates that the median income family can afford
the home with 25 percent of their income. Housing affordability index values are well above 100
throughout Nebraska, indicating that homeownership is very affordable throughout our state.
Source: Housing Affordability Index calculated by the UNL Bureau of Business Research based on data
from the Nebraska REALTORS Association and the U.S. Bureau of Census.
Nebraska Percent Change in Median Sale Price
and Housing Affordability, Q2, 2014 - Q2, 2015
10.0%
8.0%
8.1%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
Median Sale Price
HAI
-2.9%
Economic Outlook
The Leading Economic Indicator – Nebraska (LEI-N) rose by 0.17% in July 2015, its fourth
consecutive increase. The modest increase in the LEI-N, which predicts economic growth in the
state six months in the future, indicates consistent economic growth in Nebraska through the
end of 2015 and early 2016.
Figure 2: Change in LEI - N
Last 6 Months
2.44%
1.22%
1.68%
0.67%
0.49%
0.22%
0.17%
May 15
Jun 15
Jul 15
0.00%
-0.39%
-1.22%
-2.44%
Feb 15
Mar 15
Apr 15
Solid business expectations have been a key to strength in the LEI-N. Business expectations remain solid.
Respondents to the August Survey of Nebraska Business had a positive outlook for sales and
employment growth over the next six months.
Business Expectations for the Next Six Months, August 2015
Change Over the Next Six Months
Sales
Employment
Increase
28%
12%
Stay the Same
54%
83%
Decrease
18%
5%
Note: Column totals may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
The long-run outlook for the Nebraska economy also remains solid. Growth will be steady and
moderate, but not rapid, according to the UNL Bureau of Business Research and the Nebraska
Business Forecast Council. Strength in the domestic economy, especially services, will make up
for weakness in exporting. Personal income growth will exceed inflation rates. Interest rates
and inflation will remain low.
2014
2015
2016
2017
Key Economic Growth Rates in Nebraska
Nonfarm
Net Farm
Nonfarm
Personal Income
Income
Employment
(nominal)
(nominal)
1.3%
3.5%
-24.1%
1.3%
3.6%
-44.6%
1.2%
4.0%
16.4%
1.2%
3.9%
-2.4%
Note: Nominal income growth includes inflation.