East Asia Study Group
South East Asia and the U.S. rebalancing to Asia
Michiel Foulon
Doctoral researcher
20 February 2013
Overview
1. U.S. rebalancing to Asia
2. U.S. rebalancing triggers new arms
race?
3. It's more then just about China
4. Now what?
1. U.S. rebalancing to Asia
(Cronin 2012)
–  “Let there be no doubt: in the Asia-Pacific
in the 21st century, the United States of
America is all in" (Obama 2011)
–  Cronin (2012):
•  'is about containing China'
•  leading to polarization
•  SEAn countries must take side
2. U.S. rebalancing triggers
new arms race?
•  Bitzinger (2012)
–  US to counterbalance Beijing’s growing
strength
–  China's perception (Xinbo 2012)
•  less on economy, more on security issues
•  'US pushes ASEAN countries to form a united
front against China on the South China Sea'
2. U.S. rebalancing triggers
new arms race?
–  China defense budget increased five-fold
since late 1990s
•  Pentagon: China is closing technological gap
faster then expected
•  China 'surrounded by unstable
countries' (Fraser 2012)
2. U.S. rebalancing triggers
new arms race?
•  Yet:
–  U.S. defense budget: 550 billion USD
–  China defense budget: 90 billion USD
–  U.S. defense spending still 41 % of world total
2. U.S. rebalancing triggers
new arms race?
•  "The folly of trying to contain
China" (Fraser 2012)
•  focusing on China not feasible nor
sustainable
•  policies of containment won’t work,
arouse significant hostility in the region
3. It's more then just about
China
•  Yamaguchi (2012):
–  'Japan – U.S. defense cooperation'
•  South Korea
–  welcomes U.S. rebalancing to Asia
because of tensions with North Korea (e.g.
Yeonpyeong Island, 2010) and China
(maritime disputes)
3. It's more then just about
China
•  South East Asia's perspective
(Emmerson 2012)
–  Security: U.S. slows or reduces it's
exposure to Beijing's strength
–  growing economic interdependence with
China, but territorial disputes remain
3. It's more then just about
China
–  ASEAN – China territorial disputes, who
wins? U.S.?
•  Apart from strategic partners Japan, South
Korea and Taiwan, U.S. is also a security
guarantor of ASEAN countries (Khan 2012)
•  "Americans would make the peace; Asians
would make the money" (Emmerson 2012)
3. It's more then just about
China
–  Sino-U.S. conflict means taking sides different camps in SEA?
•  Bush, post 9/11: "either you are with us or
against us"
–  Because, SEA: Islamic insurgency movements
(Beeson 2004)
–  e.g. Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand in
support of U.S. (Misalucha 2012)
–  U.S. and Vietnam: Security and defense cooperation
–  U.S. and Philippines: joint military exercises
3. It's more then just about
China
•  Prospects?
–  'no conflict China-U.S. or China-ASEAN until mid 21st
Century' (Khan 2012)
»  therefore, 'not need for SEAn countries to
choose sides in short term'
3. It's more then just about
China
•  Bitzinger (2012)
–  SEA experience similar buying spree for
military
•  Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia
–  (S)EAn countries have many disputes with
each other
•  South China Sea
•  Dokdo/Takeshima sovereignty dispute
•  National pride
3. It's more then just about
China
–  Arms building worrying:
•  misperception and over-reaction
•  undermining the very security goal in EA and
SEA
•  U.S. – China conflict means SEAn have to take
sides over long term?
–  SEA needs U.S. in the region?
3. It's more then just about
China
•  McDevitt (2012)
–  Iraq and Afghanistan brought U.S. focus out of
balance, now security forces again more balanced
among (other) regions
–  China is important in U.S. strategic shift, but it's
not only about China
–  other EAn countries won't support U.S.?
•  China is their greatest trading partner
•  China will always be there biggest neighbour
4. Now what?
–  At elite and societal level in SEAn countries:
resentment about U.S. power. Can U.S. remain its
influence in SEA?
–  ASEAN divided? Can South East Asian countries
develop alternatives to the U.S.-dominated
international order?
–  Balance of politics, instead of balance of power via
ASEAN and U.S.? (Khan 2012)