Bourne, Plymouth, Sandwich, Wareham.
Sandwich Town Hall.
September 10, 2015.

•
MassDOT:
•
Ethan Britland – Project Manager.
•
US Army Corps of Engineers.
•
Study Team:
•
Ed Hollingshead, AICP - Team Project Manager (FST),
•
Heather Ostertog, P.E. – Transportation Engineer (FST),
•
Frank Mahady, Economist, FXM Associates,
•
Sudir Murthy, P.E., TrafInfo,
•
Ken Buckland, AICP – Public Involvement (Cecil Group).

•
Welcome and Introductions.
•
Study Process and Framework.
•
Study Framework: Goals and Objectives.
•
Existing Economic Conditions.
•
2014/2040 Regional Travel Demand Model.
•
2014 VISSIM Traffic Demonstration.
•
Schedule/Next Steps.

•
Step 1: Goals and Objectives, Evaluation Criteria, and
Public Involvement Plan.
•
Step 2: Existing Conditions.
•
Economic Conditions.
•
Step 3: Future Conditions, Alternatives
Development, and Issues Evaluation.
•
Projecting 2040 Traffic Volumes.

•
Step 4: Alternatives Analysis.
•
Step 5: Recommendations .

•
To create/improve multimodal mobility in the Cape
Cod Canal area.
•
To establish an alternative or replacement crossing of the Cape Cod Canal to address the diminishing quality and reliability of year-round connectivity over the Cape Cod Canal, due to the aging Sagamore and
Bourne Bridges.

•
Create reliable multimodal connectivity and mobility levels such that the quality of life on Cape Cod is not diminished by unreliable connectivity across the Cape
Cod Canal.
•
Create a reliable multimodal connection across the Cape
Cod Canal to maintain/enhance public safety in the event of the need for an emergency evacuation of portions of
Cape Cod and to accommodate first responders accessing
Cape Cod.
•
Ensure that cross canal connectivity does not become a barrier to reliable intra-community. connectivity for the
Towns of Bourne and Sandwich.

Frank Mahady
FXM
Associates

Both Focus and Study Areas show higher growth in population than
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties overall.
Demographic Profile
Population
2000 Census
2010 Census
2014 Estimate
2019 Projection
Focus Area % Study Area
6,077
6,793
6,928
7,128
31,930
34,085
34,550
35,286
Barnstable
County
222,232
215,888
214,968
215,713
Plymouth
County
472,497
494,919
502,190
513,012

Both Focus and Study Areas show higher growth in households than
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties overall.
Demographic Profile
Focus Area % Study Area
Barnstable
County
Plymouth
County
Households
2000 Census
2010 Census
2014 Estimate
2019 Projection
2,450
2,757
2,824
2,915
12,693
13,024
14,098
14,470
94,816
95,755
96,097
97,018
168,231
181,126
184,701
189,318

Over 65 population less in Focus and Study areas compared to Barnstable
County overall; median home values significantly less in overall Study area; median HH income higher in Plymouth County.
Demographic Profile
Focus Area % Study Area
Barnstable
County
Plymouth
County
Age
Median (years)
Over 65
Under 18
Median HHLD Income
44.5
1,232
1,378
$61,091
Median Home Value
Owner Occ. Avg.
Length of Residence
$323,805
17.9
Source: The Nielsen Company Site Reports , 2014 data
18%
20%
45.5
6,739
6,534
$57,484
$293,175
18.0
45.7
20% 57,503
19% 34,963
41.8
27% 7,954
16% 113,303
16%
23%
$58,334
$367,823
19.4
$71,517
$328,707
20.2

Education
Less than 9th grade
Some High School, no diploma
High School Graduate (or GED)
Some College, no degree
Associate Degree
Bachelor's Degree
Master's Degree
Professional School Degree
Doctorate Degree
Less than High School Diploma
Bachelors Degree or Higher
Well-educated workforce.
Workforce Profile
Focus Area % Study Area
93 2%
124 3%
1,392 29%
1,049 22%
513 11%
1,092 23%
463 10%
76 2%
28 1%
5%
39%
491 2%
1,080 4%
8,257 34%
4,939 20%
2,531 10%
4,368 18%
2,127 9%
370 2%
235 1%
6%
36%
Barnstable
County
Plymouth
County
2,844 2%
6,098 4%
10,377 3%
17,287 5%
41,567 25% 103,013 30%
34,943 21%
15,296 9%
64,641
33,916
19%
10%
37,407 23%
19,105 12%
3,955 2%
3,130 2%
74,071 22%
30,836 9%
5,991 2%
2,796 1%
5%
44%
8%
41%

Occupational distribution similar between Barnstable and Plymouth
Counties.
Workers 16+ by Occupation
Classification
Blue Collar
White Collar
Service and Farm
Workforce Profile
Focus Area % Study Area
Barnstable
County
Plymouth
County
652 20%
2,111 64%
552 17%
3,484 20%
10,248 60%
3,424 20%
19,622 19% 46,488 18%
62,609 61% 162,799 64%
20,706 20% 45,995 18%

Plymouth County residents have longest average travel time to work; all commute primarily alone by auto.
Workforce Profile
Travel time to work (min.)
Focus Area % Study Area
32 32
Barnstable
County
26
Plymouth
County
35
Mode of transport to work
Drove Alone
Car Pooled
Public Transportation
Walked
Bicycle
Other Means
Worked at Home
2,814 86.1%
137 4.2%
26 0.8%
120 3.7%
25 0.8%
35 1.1%
112 3.4%
14,359 85.2%
1,106 6.6%
184 1.1%
458 2.7%
42 0.3%
81 0.5%
632 3.8%
83,705 82.8% 200,299 80.6%
6,323 6.3% 19,056 7.7%
1,393 1.4%
2,743 2.7%
12,265
4,604
4.9%
1.9%
522 0.5%
851 0.8%
5,537 5.5%
307 0.1%
1,454 0.6%
10,673 4.3%

Distribution of employment similar to Counties overall, except for Focus Area sectors highlighted.
Business Profiles, Focus and Study Areas
NAICS Business Type
11
21
TOTALS
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
22
23
Utilities
Construction
31-33 Manufacturing
72
81
92
61
62
71
52
53
54
42 Wholesale Trade
44-45 Retail Trade
48-49 Transportation and Warehousing
51 Information
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
55
56
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Svces
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Admin and Support and Waste Mgmt Svces
Educational Services
Healthcare and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Public Administration
Employment % of FA
5,229
4
7
Focus Area (FA)
Sales
100%
0.1%
0.1%
($ millions) % of FA Employment % of SA
1,329
0.5
1.5
100%
0.04%
0.1%
22,640
21
7
Study Area (SA)
100%
0%
0%
Sales
( $ millions) % of SA
5,538
3.8
1.5
100%
0.1%
0%
6
348
137
256
743
110
113
595
181
410
0
138
619
434
197
469
227
235
0.1%
7%
3%
5%
14%
2%
2%
11%
3%
8%
0%
3%
12%
8%
4%
9%
4%
4%
115
56
522
228
23
161
38
78
18
1
31
30
0
9
0
4
15
0
0.0%
9%
4%
39%
17%
1%
2%
12%
3%
6%
0%
1%
0%
2%
0%
2%
1%
0%
60
996
993
906
4,161
490
231
960
546
1,303
0
357
1,840
4,694
570
2,562
913
1,030
0%
4%
4%
4%
18%
2%
1%
4%
2%
6%
0%
2%
8%
21%
3%
11%
4%
5%
24
300
264
2280
1080
57
53
223
126
211
0
46
3
611
35
164
56
0
41%
20%
1%
1%
0%
5%
5%
4%
2%
4%
0%
0.8%
0%
11%
1%
3%
1%
0%
Source: The Nielsen Company, Site Reports, 2014 data, and FXM Associates

Distribution of employment remarkably similar between Counties, except for hotels/restaurants
Business Profiles, Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
NAICS Business Type
62
71
72
55
56
61
81
92
11
21
22
Totals
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas Extraction
Utilities
23 Construction
31-33 Manufacturing
42 Wholesale Trade
44-45 Retail Trade
48-49 Transportation and Warehousing
51 Information
52
53
54
Finance and Insurance
Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Svces
Management of Companies and Enterprises
Admin and Support and Waste Mgmt Svces
Educational Services
Healthcare and Social Assistance
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
Other Services (except Public Administration)
Public Administration
Employment % of County
137,100
125
107
296
Barnstable County
Sales
100%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
Plymouth County
Sales ($
($ millions) % of County Employment % of County
25,455 100% 223,586 100%
24
29
119
0.1%
0.1%
0.5%
248
29
1,561
0%
0%
1% millions) % of County
51,528
43
19
1598
100%
0.1%
0.0%
3%
8,776
3,231
4,083
22,389
5,643
3,270
3,645
4,948
6,445
6%
2%
3%
16%
4%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2767
1131
6199
5581
721
820
1006
1170
1164
11%
4%
24%
22%
3%
3%
4%
5%
5%
13,191
14,199
10,493
36,023
5,168
2,584
7,000
6,477
11,783
6%
6%
5%
16%
2%
1%
3%
3%
5%
4485
3148
18570
9092
461
653
2410
1566
2115
1%
1%
5%
3%
4%
9%
6%
36%
18%
113
4,709
7,839
18,808
5,196
20,756
7,962
8,759
14%
4%
15%
0%
3%
6%
6%
6%
11
766
25
1873
320
1402
327
0
7%
1%
6%
0%
3%
0%
1%
0%
269
8,482
20,196
36,382
5,344
19,185
13,565
11,407
16%
2%
9%
6%
5%
0%
4%
9%
60
1102
50
3744
456
1217
741
0
7%
1%
2%
1%
0%
0%
2%
0%
Source: The Nielsen Company, Site Reports, 2014 data, and FXM Associates

115
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
130
125
120
Index of Total Employment
Massachusetts and Selected Counties 2001-2013
Massachusetts
Barnstable, MA
Bristol, MA
Dukes, MA
Nantucket, MA
Plymouth, MA
Suffolk, MA
2001=100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Average wages in Barnstable and Plymouth Counties favorable for additional employment growth.
Income and Wages, State of Massachusetts and Counties
Per capita personal income
State of
Massachusetts
Suffolk
County
Plymouth
County
Barnstable
County
$57,248 $57,660 $55,935 $62,187
Avg annual wages & salaries $60,307 $79,697 $46,422 $41,733
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2013

Several industries grew faster in Barnstable County than in the State overall as well as selected Counties.
Compound Annual Growth Rates (%) for Selected Industries, Counties and State
Where the Rate in Barnstable County Exceeded the Average for Massachusetts Overall
2001-2013
Barnstable
County
Plymouth
County
Bristol
County
Suffolk
County
Employment by place of work (number of jobs)
Total employment
Construction
Wholesale trade
Finance and insurance
Administrative and waste management services
Educational services
State government
Local government
0.70
0.10
1.00
2.00
2.10
3.70
0.50
0.70
1.20
0.40
-0.50
4.10
1.80
0.20
0.10
0.00
2.50
1.20
0.40
-1.40
-1.50
-0.50
-1.10
3.30
2.60
1.90
2.20
2.60
-1.50
0.60
-0.30
-1.30
Source: U.S.D.O.C, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Regional Economic Information System; and FXM Associates
State of
Mass
0.5
-0.3
-1
1.3
0.5
1.5
0.2
0.2

The following slides show historical and projected growth in jobs for industries in
Barnstable County that grew between 2001 and 2013 and are projected to continue growing at least through 2020 based on the recent 12-year trend. The historical and projected growth in these industries is also shown for Plymouth County .

Historical and Projected Total Employment
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
2001-2020
300,000
250,000
Plymouth County Total
200,000
150,000
Barnstable County Total
100,000
50,000
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical and Projected Wholesale Employment
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
2001-2020
12,000
10,000
8,000
Plymouth County
Wholesale
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
Barnstable County
Wholesale
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical and Projected Employment in Finance & Insurance
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
2001-2020
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
Plymouth County Fin&Ins
5,000
Barnstable County
Fin&Ins
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical and Projected Employment in Real Estate Rental & Leasing
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
2001-2020
20,000
18,000
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
-
Plymouth County RE
Barnstable County RE
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical and Projected Employment in Professional, Scientific & Technical
Services in Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
2001-2020
25,000
20,000
Plymouth County
PS&Tsvs
15,000
10,000
Barnstable County
PS&Tsvs
5,000
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical and Projected Employment in Administrative, Support, Waste
Management & Remedial Services
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
2001-2020
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
Plymouth County
Admin,Support, Waste
Mgmt svs
6,000
4,000
Barnstable County
Admin,Support, Waste
Mgmt svs
2,000
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical and Projected Employment in Educational Services
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
2001-2020
7,000
6,000
5,000
Plymouth County
Educational Services
4,000
3,000
2,000
Barnstable County
Educational Services
1,000
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical and Projected Employment in Health Care & Social Assistance
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
2001-2020
45,000
40,000
35,000
30,000
25,000
Plymouth County Health
Care & Social Assistance
20,000
15,000 Barnstable County Health
Care & Social Assistance
10,000
5,000
-
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical and Projected Employment in Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
2001-2020
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Barnstable County Arts,
Entertainment &
Recreation
Plymouth County Arts,
Entertainment &
Recreation
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical and Projected Employment in Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Barnstable and Plymouth Counties
2001-2020
10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Barnstable County Arts,
Entertainment &
Recreation
Plymouth County Arts,
Entertainment &
Recreation
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical and forecast net absorption, new deliveries, and vacancy rates
Barnstable County OFFICE space

Historical and forecast net absorption, new deliveries, and vacancy rates
Barnstable County INDUSTRIAL space

Historical and forecast net absorption, new deliveries, and vacancy rates
Barnstable County FLEX space

Historical and forecast net absorption, new deliveries, and vacancy rates
Barnstable County RETAIL space

•
Long term historical growth rate in population and jobs (1970s,80s,90s) not sustainable
•
However, some industries have shown recent growth compared to overall economy and additional jobs and development possible
•
Intense competition among regions and communities statewide for limited projected economic growth

Comments and feedback can be emailed to
Ethan Britland - ethan.britland@state.ma.us

•
Includes roadway network for entire Cape Cod and portions of mainland.
•
Includes data on population and journey to work.

57 Seven-day ATR Counts for Summer and Non-
Summer 2014

37 Locations for AM Peak Hour,
PM Peak Hour, Saturday Peak
Hour

Comments and feedback can be emailed to
Ethan Britland - ethan.britland@state.ma.us

•
Work trips on/off Cape.
•
School trips on/off Cape.
•
Shopping trips, deliveries, etc.

•
Work trips on/off Cape.
•
School trips on/off Cape.
•
Shopping trips, deliveries, etc.
•
DOES NOT generate visitor trips.

• Regional Travel Demand Model.
• Future trips generated by area residents through work commuting, school, and other daily activities
(based on projected 2040 socio-economic data supplied by CTPS)
• Visitation
• Projecting future visitation requires different information.

FXM

• Assist travel demand forecasting.
• Focus on peak season and overall visitor socioeconomic indicators as distinct from year-round population and jobs.
• Use economic data to estimate future growth in tourism.

• No direct counts of visitors available.
• Indirect or proxy measures needed for analysis.
• Trends in employment in hotels and restaurants used as a proxy for trends in visitor activity.

• The forecast growth rate for visitors to Cape Cod is determined through analysis of trends in hotel and restaurant employment and other economic indicators to construct a ‘multiple regression model’.
• Other ‘economic indicators’ include:
• peak season bridge crossings;
• Statewide/County population/employment;
• Barnstable County population/employment; and
• Hotel room tax revenues.

$30,000
$25,000
$20,000
$15,000
$10,000
$5,000
$-
Barnstable County Room Tax Collections and
Accommodation and Food Service Jobs
Barnstable County Room
Tax Collections
Accommodation and
Food Service Jobs
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Barnstable County Room Tax Collections
2009 2010 2011 2012
Accommodation and Food Service Jobs
16,200
16,000
15,800
15,600
15,400
15,200
15,000
14,800
14,600
14,400
14,200

17,000
16,500
Peak Month Bridges Traffic and Hotel/Restaurant Jobs
Accommodation and Food Service
Jobs
Combined Bridges Peak Month
Traffic
134,000
132,000
130,000
16,000
15,500
128,000
126,000
15,000
124,000
14,500
122,000
14,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
120,000

Historical Employment in Barnstable County:
Total Jobs Compared to Acccommodation and Food Services Jobs
146000
144000
142000
140000
138000
136000
134000
132000
130000
128000
126000
Total employment
Accommodation and food services jobs
17000
16500
16000
15500
15000
14500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
14000

Historical Employment in Retail and Accommodation and Food
Services Jobs in Barnstable County
25000
Retail trade
20000
15000
Accommodation and food services
10000
5000
0
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Indices of Total Employment in Massachusetts and Accommodation &
Food Service Employment in Barnstable County
2001=100
108
106
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
Barnstable, MA Massachusetts
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

• Measured traffic as combined top monthly volume of two bridges (not necessarily same month for each bridge) for historical changes in peak seasonal volumes.
• Used Accommodations and Food Services (A&FS) employment in Barnstable, Dukes, and Nantucket counties as proxy for visitors crossing the bridges.
• Used Barnstable County share of total
Massachusetts employment as proxy for non-visitor traffic.

•
The spending of tourists, local visitors from off-Cape, and seasonal home owners are significant contributors to the Cape Cod economy.
•
These visitations and spending do not necessarily track with the larger year-round economic conditions and trends.

•
To attempt to account for these visitations in the travel demand forecasting and traffic analyses a regression model was developed to consider specific relevant economic and traffic indicators of visitor demand
•
The resulting model findings suggest that average annual growth in visitor traffic is expected to range from 0.12% per year to 0.69% per year.
•
It may be worth noting that the forecast for statewide employment growth through 2040 is
0.26% per year.

Comments and feedback can be emailed to
Ethan Britland - ethan.britland@state.ma.us

•
Upcoming Public Meeting.
•
Project and analyze 2040 No-Build Traffic
Volumes.
•
Begin consideration of improvement alternatives.

Comments and feedback can be emailed to
Ethan Britland - ethan.britland@state.ma.us