NOAA’s Strategy for Monitoring
Earth’s Climate System
John J Bates
NOAA’s National Climatic
Data Center
May 21, 2010
Understanding the various complex processes that
make up Earth’s system is a major scientific challenge.
From the bottom of the ocean to the top of the atmosphere,
NOAA’s instruments monitor Earth’s climate system.
Observations and Data Quality
• GCOS and WCRP letter of 12 May 2010
– International groups to evaluate
– Guidelines for product generation
Arrays of automated stations collect
precise weather and climate data on land
3-wire weighing precipitation gauge with
backup gauge inside a large wind fence with
single alter.
Satellite comms
Relative Humidity (in test)
Power Control
Solar Radiation
(Pyranometer)
Three High-Precision
Platinum Resistance
Thermometers in Individual
Ventilated Radiation
Datalogger
Housings
Anemometer
Ground Temperature
Wetness Sensor
Soil Moisture & Soil Temperature
(in test)
Observations show rising global temperatures
Temperatures measured on land and at sea for more than a century show that Earth’s
globally averaged surface temperature is experiencing a long-term warming trend.
NOAA maintains a global ocean observing
network that monitors Earth’s climate system
NOAA sponsors development of
new observation technologies
The Scarlet Knight: an unmanned glider with data-gathering capabilities that holds much
promise for improving our understanding of the ocean and its role in climate and weather.
50 years of CO2 data from Mauna Loa
388 ppm (2008)
318 ppm (1958)
Mauna Loa Observatory on Hawai’i
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The complexity & variability
of the carbon cycle makes
climate change mitigation a
challenging scientific issue
CarbonTracker
The Rising Demand for Climate Services
Commerce
Hydropower
Coasts
Recreation
Ecosystems
Farming
Wind Energy
Private Sector
A NOAA Climate Service will
advance critical aspects of
climate science, and it will
connect the threads of
scientific understanding to
user-driven requirements.
Satellite Climate Sensors - Introduction
•
A February 2008 White House OSTP press release announced a plan and
$74 million request in FY 2009 for NOAA “to sustain the datasets from three key
climate measurement capabilities:
•
Total solar irradiance, measured by the Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS);
•
Earth radiation budget data from the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System sensor
(CERES); and ozone vertical profile data from the Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite
Limb sensor (OMPS Limb)”
•
GAO Report 08-518 dated May 2008: “Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting
Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to
Ensure Climate Data Continuity”, recommended to the Secretaries of Commerce
and Defense and the Administrator of NASA that they:
•
Establish plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space sensors removed
from the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS)
program in cases where the sensors are warranted and justified
•
This report describes NOAA’s initial plan for restoring the climate capabilities
removed from NPOESS
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
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Background (1 of 3)
• From January to June 2006, the NPOESS program underwent a NunnMcCurdy Certification process that resulted in the program being
restructured over the next two years
• The Nunn-McCurdy Congressional certification process was a Tri-Agency
process
• The resulting Acquisition Decision Memorandum (ADM) of the Department
of Defense (DoD) outlined the nature of the restructured Program
• De-manifested Earth Radiation Budget Sensor (ERBS), TSIS, Altimeter, Space
Environment Sensor Suite (SESS), Aerosol Polarimeter Sensor (APS) and
Survivability sensor (SUS)
• Directed NPOESS fly with Space Environment Monitor and CERES sensors
instead of ERBS and SESS
• De-manifested the OMPS Limb sensor from both the NPOESS Preparatory
Project (NPP) and NPOESS 1330 satellite
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
14
Background (2 of 3)
•
In January 2007, NOAA and NASA drafted a white paper called “Impacts of
NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on joint NASA-NOAA Climate Goals”
•
Described impacts of the NPOESS Nunn-McCurdy Certification on the climate
program goals of NASA and NOAA
•
Provided recommended approaches for recovering the impacted climate observations
and related science
•
In April 2007, NASA and NOAA announced a plan to restore OMPS-Limb to NPP
•
In January 2008, NASA and NOAA selected the CERES Flight Model (FM) 5
sensor for flight on NPP
•
In May 2008, the NPOESS tri-agency Executive Committee agreed to restore
the Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS) to NPOESS C1
•
A 2008 National Research Council (NRC) Report: “Ensuring the Climate Record
from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft”, recommended sustaining the
following sensors considered relevant to Climate Science:
•
Altimeter; CERES / ERBS; TSIS; APS; OMPS-Limb
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
15
Background (3 of 3)
• In February 2010, the President’s FY 2011 budget request for NOAA
directed the NPOESS program to split into separate NOAA/NASA and
DoD programs
• NOAA/NASA Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) covers the afternoon
(1330) orbit
• JPSS flies an “NPP-like” satellite bus
• DoD covers the early morning (0530) orbit
• NOAA manages the JPSS ground system
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16
Polar Program Evolution
Historically
Future
Today
POES
MetOp
DMSP
0530
0730
0530
0830
1330
0830
DMSP FO
0530
1330
Local Equatorial
Crossing Time
DMSP
• 2 U.S. military DMSP
• 2 U.S. civilian POES
DMSP
• 2 U.S. military DMSP
• 1 U.S. civilian POES
• 1 European MetOp
DMSP: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
MetOp: Meteorological Operational Satellite
JPSS
DMSP
0930
0930
POES
MetOp
1330
POES
• 1 U.S. civilian JPSS
• 1 U.S. military DMSP follow-on
• 1 European MetOp
POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
JPSS: Joint Polar Satellite System (NOAA / NASA)
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
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For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
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Climate Sensor Studies
• This plan is based on studies conducted by NOAA to examine the
feasibility, options, life cycle costs, and timing of sensor acquisition
and launch schedules
• 2007 Aerospace Corporation sensor cost studies for climate sensor
development
• 2008 Aerospace Corporation mission alternative studies on options for
hosting climate sensors
• Re-manifested on NPOESS
• Free-flyer host, either single or multiple payloads
• Commercial rideshare (i.e., hosted on a Communications satellite already
planned for launch)
• 2008/09 Technical feasibility and price of commercially available
services, as either a data buy or hosted payload
• 10 studies awarded to 4 companies on all climate payloads
• Orbital Sciences Corp., Sierra Nevada Corp., Iridium Communications, Surrey Satellite
Technology US
• 2009/10 Johns Hopkins University / Applied Physics Lab Independent
Cost and Mission Analysis Studies
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
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Working Assumptions
•
Glory mission will meet its goal design life of 5 years (3-year threshold)
•
NPP launches in Sep/Oct 2011, 5-year mission life
•
JPSS missions will use a smaller bus than NPOESS C-1
•
Primary bus can accommodate OMPS-Limb and CERES/ERBS
•
TSIS will likely need to be accommodated through a rideshare or free-flyer
mission within JPSS Program
•
APS requires a determination of need for climate continuity, and will also need a
different ride
•
JPSS 1 launch readiness date Jan 2015, launches Oct 2016, 7-year duration
•
JPSS 2 launch readiness date Jan 2018, launches Oct 2019, 7-year duration
•
•
ERBS and TSIS will be procured in lots (first one with 2 follow-on options)
OMPS-Limb will fly with OMPS-Nadir on JPSS 2
•
May also go on JPSS 1 if it can be delivered on an accelerated schedule
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
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For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
Total Solar Irradiance Sensor (TSIS)
Continuity Plan
TSIS Sensor (LASP)
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
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Overview
• Mission
• Continuously monitors the sun's energy incident on Earth to address
long-term climate change
• Helps to discriminate between natural and man-made causes of climate
change
• Continues a 30-year climate data record
• Legacy
• Solar Irradiance records are maintained through multiple launches of
Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (ACRIM) sensor
•
Last ACRIM III was on ACRIMSAT, launched Dec 1999
• The need for more precise measurement of the total and spectral
components of solar radiation led to the development of TSIS,
consisting of the Total Irradiance Monitor (TIM) and Spectral Irradiance
Monitor (SIM)
• SIM added irradiance measurements of different parts of the spectrum
• TIM increased the total solar accuracy of ACRIM
• Both launched by NASA on SORCE in 2003
• Future
• TIM to be launched on Glory in 2010
• TSIS-1 procurement from LASP ATP granted in 2009 for 2012 delivery
• TSIS may not fit on JPSS primary satellite, alternate flight options under
study
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
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Continuity Requirements
• Climate data record continuity requires at least 1 TSIS on orbit at all
times
•
TIM on Glory mission is needed to provide continuity until TSIS 1 is launched
• TSIS can fly in almost any orbit
• TSIS 1 has a 5-year threshold lifetime, with 7-year goal
• Follow-on sensors require a 7-year lifetime
• Climate user community requires 1-year overlap between sensors
• TSIS is a “stand alone” sensor - does not require co-hosting with
another sensor
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
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TSIS Planning Schedule
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
Calendar Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
ACRIMSAT (ACRIM III) Launched December 20, 1999
SORCE (TIM & SIM) – Requires extension to Oct 2016 to cover SIM gap
Glory (TIM) , Up to 6-yr life required to cover TIM gap
TSIS-1
Begin
Planning
Authority to
Proceed
(May 2008)
Because TSIS does not fit on JPSS-1, sensor delivery will be delayed from
June 2012 to June 2013 to allow for instrument design and interface
changes to accommodate selected platform (Geostationary or Low Earth
Orbit)
Sensor
Delivery
Free-Flyer or Rideshare
15 mo I&T
Launch
Ready
NASA launch & sensor mission life
Planning
Projected launch & Sensor mission life
Sensor acquisition
Satellite is operational beyond design life
Satellite integration & test
NOAA launch & sensor mission life
Key Events
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Sensor Development Plan
• TSIS 1
• Acquisition began in FY 2009
• Under development by LASP under contract to NASA, to deliver TSIS-1 by
June 2012
• Additional 12 months needed to allow for instrument design and interface
changes to accommodate Geostationary or Low Earth Orbit platform
• JPSS Program will determine host mission, either geostationary or polar
• TSIS 2
• Acquisition of 2 additional sensors of the same design will be required for
follow-on missions
• We are evaluating whether a competitive bid is the best approach
• Risks to Data Continuity
• There will be a SIM gap unless SORCE lasts to Oct 2016
• There will be a TIM gap unless Glory lasts to Oct 2016
• Glory mission has a 3-year threshold design life , 5-year goal
• Polar free-flyer or geostationary spacecraft risks are still unknown
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
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Climate Sensor Planning Schedule
For Official Use Only
NOAA Pre-Decisional Information
Calendar Year
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
ACRIM III
Jason-1
Aqua (CERES-4)
SORCE (TIM & SIM)
OSTM (Jason-2)
GLORY (TIM, APS-1)
NPP (CERES-5, OMPS L-1)
Jason-3
JPSS Free-Flyer (TSIS-1)
JPSS 1 (CERES-6)
Jason-CS
JPSS Free-Flyer (TSIS-2)
JPSS 2 (ERBS-1, OMPS L-2, TSIS-2)
NOAA launch & Sensor mission life
Projected launch & Sensor mission life
NASA launch & Sensor mission life
Satellite is operational beyond design life
Launch Readiness Date
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CDR Project Functional Framework
Intl Data Programs
GEOSS, CEOS
Product Development Teams (CDRs, CIRs and Support)
Experts in Instrument Characterization, Algorithms, Validation, Data Management,
Applications, and Observing System Performance Monitoring
Observing
System
Performance
Monitoring
Improved
CDR and
CIRs
Production of
Near Real-time
CDRs
Processing of
CDRs for Longterm Records
Climate
Information
Records
Design for
Future
Systems
CDR Stewardship
Other Agencies
Leveraging Resources / Collaboration
Management Board
USGCRP Observations
Management Structure
Engaging User Community
Modeling
Monitoring
Prediction
Research
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Thank You
…In the real world of science the greater
challenge may be that of insuring the
continuance of such a program…
John A. Eddy
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