International Telecommunication Union
Market, Economics and Finance Unit
in cooperation with
International Institute of Forecasters
Expert Dialogues:
Adjusting Forecasting Methods
to the Needs of the Telecommunication Sector
Geneva, Switzerland
25-26 October 2004
Room L in Montbrillant Building
Agenda
Time
Title
8:45 – 9:00
Registration
9:00 – 9:25
Opening ceremony
Mr Pape-Gorgui Touré – Chief, Policies, Strategies and Financing
Department, BDT, ITU
Dr Robert Fildes – Director, International Institute of Forecasters
9:25 – 9:45
Analysis of tools and models to conduct economic forecasts,
simulations and sensitivity analyses
Mr Jaroslaw K. Ponder – Market, Economics and Finance Unit, ITU
9:45 – 10:15
Telecommunications demand – a review of forecasting issues
Dr Robert Fildes – Lancaster University, UK
Monday, 25 October 2004
Coffee break
10:30 – 11:30
Applications of diffusion models in telecom
Dr Nigel Meade – Imperial College London, UK
11:30 – 12:30
Pooling multi-country data: Short data and multi-generations of
technologies
Dr Towhidul Islam – University of Guelph, Canada
Lunch
14:00 – 15:00
The Delphi methodology and other impact assessment
methodologies: Opportunities and challenges for standardisation
and regulation bodies in the telecommunication sector
Dr Knut Blind – The Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation
Research ISI, Germany
15:00 – 16:00
Examining forecasting methodologies to assist and support
operators in the transition from a regulated environment to
deregulated markets
Dr Mohsen Hamoudia – France Telecom, France
Coffee break
16:30 – 17:20
Forecasting models for cost evolution of network components
and risk analysis based on uncertainties in demand forecasts and
cost predictions
Dr Kjell Stordahl – Telenor, Norway
17:20 – 18:00
Complexity based business decision support tools for
telecommunications applications
Mr David Collings – Business Modelling, BT Exact, UK
9:15 – 10:15
Tuesday, 26 October 2004
Understanding consumer behaviour in information and
communication technology markets
Mr Alastair Robertson – Lancaster University, UK
Coffee break
10:30 – 11:30
Modelling demand for telecom services using surveys
Dr Paul Rappoport – Temple University, USA
11:30 – 12:30
Forecasting demand for Internet services: Willingness-to-pay for
VoIP
Dr James Alleman – University of Colorado, Columbia University and
Columbia Institute of Tele-Information, USA
Lunch
14:00 – 15:00
Linking (telco) forecasting to innovation management
Dr Patrick van der Duin – Delft University, Netherlands
15:00 – 16:00
Closing Panel Discussion
Chair Dr Robert Fildes + all speakers