Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy
Support Materials
Ideas of chance and uncertainty: First Level
Part 2
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First Level - Ideas of Chance and Uncertainty
Experience and Outcome: MNU 1-22a
I can use appropriate vocabulary to describe the likelihood of events occurring, using
the knowledge and experiences of myself and others to guide me.
Learning Intention
What can we do? (developing skills)
Success Criteria
We can:
We are learning to be able to:
 use our own experience and knowledge to predict
the probability of an event/outcome occurring.

Predict the likelihood of an
event occurring by using
evidence from our own
experience.

Use vocabulary to explain how
or why events/outcomes occur.
Key Vocabulary:
Predictability and uncertainty in events, sometimes, always/certain, probable and never to
describe events, Likely / unlikely or possible / impossible to describe the likelihood of event
occurring
Learning and Teaching Ideas
Learners need a range of experiences to help understand when some things are likely to
occur and others are not. These experiences develop intuition which will support more
formal learning of chance within the next level.
Possible contexts/ideas to develop confidence to predict the probability of an
event/outcome occurring:

Interactive Probability Scales
Using rope/chalk create a line/scale with one end labelled likely and the other labelled
unlikely
unlikely
likely
Children can be asked a series of questions or be given a statement to consider by the
teacher (linked to any topic) and be encouraged to stand on the line/rope based on what
they think the answer would be. For example:
o Saturday is the day after Sunday
o
If I go to London I will meet the Queen
o
If I am the fastest runner in my class then it is likely that I will win the running race
on sports day.
Probability scales can also be used with card or dice games involving chance such as
“Higher or Lower” though it is important that learners are aware of how the suits are ordered
e.g. Ace = value of 1 and King = value of 13.
 “In the playground” (http://nrich.maths.org/7248&part=7248) or “The car that passes”
(http://nrich.maths.org/7249&part=7249)
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o
What could you say about the child who is first into the playground at break time?
o
What can you say about the car that passes the school gates at the end of
playtime?
The above questions encourage children to work collaboratively to explore a range of
possibilities to a posed question which requires them to consider their own experience and
environment. Learners will then try to place the statements they come up with on a
probability scale.
unlikely
likely
The teacher then extends thinking by asking children to explain their choice and encourage
them to draw on examples to support their thinking (Why do you think...?).
Learners can be challenged to write their own statement cards or questions for their peers to
consider.
 Using coloured objects (such as pencils/straws/cubes/counters*)
Children can count how many of each sort there are, and then observe which item is the
most common. The teacher can comment that this means that an individual child is most
likely to get a red pencil *, or have the same chance of getting a red pencil as a blue pencil
etc.. Having children look at the whole set of pencils will help develop ideas of proportion, as
well as absolute numbers. They can see, without counting, that most of the pencils are red
and therefore can make predictions of outcomes should the pencils be shared out.
Possible questions:
Which colour do you think you are most likely to get?
What colour do you think you have the same chance of getting?
Which colour are you unlikely to get?
Children might say “there are a lot more red pencils than blue pencils; there are less blue
pencils than red pencils; most of the pencils are red; more of the pencils are red; probably I
will get a red pencil”.
Further Links:
Dept of Education and Early Childhood Development, Victoria, Australia
 Mathematics Developmental Continuum – First experiences with Chance
http://www.education.vic.gov.au/studentlearning/teachingresources/maths/mathscontinuum/mcd/
M12501P.htm
NRICH website
 Search probability for related articles and games for teaching chance and uncertainty
http://nrich.maths.org/public/
 Interactive dice game – Game of PIG
http://nrich.maths.org/1260
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