Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy
Support Materials
Ideas of chance and uncertainty: First Level
Part 1
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First Level - Ideas of Chance and Uncertainty
Experience and Outcome: MNU 1-22a
I can use appropriate vocabulary to describe the likelihood of events occurring, using
the knowledge and experiences of myself and others to guide me.
Learning Intention
What do we need to know? (recall of facts)
We are learning to understand:
 the key vocabulary associated with chance and
uncertainty and be use this to predict the outcome
of events or solve problems.
Success Criteria
We can:
 use the appropriate vocabulary
associated with chance and
uncertainty.

Describe / predict the likelihood
of an event occurring by using
appropriate vocabulary.
Key Vocabulary:
Predictability and uncertainty in events, sometimes, always/certain, probable and never to
describe events, Likely, unlikely or possible,impossible to describe the likelihood of event
occurring
Learning and Teaching Ideas
Learners should understand that probability is the chance of something happening – it is to
do with making predictions and using probability in our everyday lives to make decisions.
Learners need opportunities to explore the language associated with probability, chance and
uncertainty as part of routines and events in their everyday lives.
Basic teaching strategy:
Address the vocabulary of chance as it arises in a variety of classroom activities, rather than
making it a focus of instruction at this stage.
Numeracy across Learning
Possible contexts/ideas to develop confidence with associated vocabulary:
 Create a word bank of vocabulary associated with chance and uncertainty to display in
classroom and use as an interactive teaching resource during class/group discussions.
Provide opportunities to discuss the probability of events in their own lives and/or
learning experiences so that learners are familiar and confident at using the language of
chance and uncertainty to explain and support their thinking. Ensure that learners are
encouraged to add to the word bank as they go. Discussions may:
o
Involve class topics such as ‘The Weather’ - What is the likelihood of snowy
weather over Christmas? What is the chance of you falling in the playground if it
has been raining?
o
Explore probability around daily routines - What is the probability of you falling
asleep each night? If your alarm clock doesn’t go off, what is the chance of you
being late for school?
o
Be imaginary - What is the likelihood of you having dinner with a dragon? What
is the probability of you meeting the Queen?
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk

“John Patrick Norman McHennessy: The Boy Who Was Always Late”
Author: John Burningham (available on Amazon)
This book has many events that would never occur in a real life journey to school. When
reading, ask questions about the possibility of some of these events occurring. Use
language such as what are the chances of... What is the probability of... what is the
likelihood of... When answering the questions encourage learners to use words such as
never, sometimes, always, likely, unlikely or impossible.
Further Links:
Dept of Education and Early Childhood Development, Victoria, Australia
 First experience with chance – Progression Points
http://www.education.vic.gov.au/studentlearning/teachingresources/maths/mathscontinuum/mcd/M12
501L.htm
Teachers Net

Probability Unit – Grade One http://teachers.net/lessons/posts/2255.html
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk