BRIEFING
Climate change and
security
Last modified: 5 Nov 2014
Contents
Words of warning
How does climate change increase
Military leaders in the UK and US have warned
recently that climate change presents a
growing risk to geopolitical stability, which in
turn could affect nations’ security, prosperity
and wellbeing.
security risks?
Global hotspots
For the military themselves
It can reduce availability of food and water,
increase the risk of disease, increase conflict
over resources, and cause migration.
Climate change is best understood as a
‘threat multiplier’ that can worsen existing
problems, especially in countries and regions
with failing governments or existing conflict.
Words of warning
!
Asked in 2013 what was the most significant
long-term security threat in the Pacific
region, Admiral Samuel J Locklear III, head of
the US Pacific Command, answered:
‘climate change’. Among other things,
Admiral Locklear is responsible for monitoring
the North Korean nuclear situation and
ongoing hostilities between China and
Japan over islands that both nations claim.
Sea level rise and more extreme weather, he
said, could ‘cripple the security environment,
probably more likely than the other
scenarios we all often talk about’.
Roadmap', US Defense Secretary Hagel
confirmed that officials are preparing plans
to cope with projected sea-level rise of
around 1.5 feet in the next 20 to 50 years.
The US Defence Secretary has also warned
that while terrorism poses an immediate
threat, climate change poses one of the
biggest long-term security threats.
In July 2014, the UK military warned: ‘Climate
change, a rise in sea levels, desertification
and reducing biodiversity are… likely to
impact on agricultural production and
fishing, and could exacerbate humanitarian
crises’.
How does climate change
increase security risks?
In May 2014, a group of 11 retired US
generals and admirals warned that the
nature and pace of observed climate
The origins of conflict are complex, and it is
change ‘…pose severe risks for our national
unlikely that climate change will either be a
security. During our decades of experience
direct or sole cause. But the latest
in the US military, we have addressed many
assessment from the Intergovernmental
national security challenges, from
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the UN
containment and deterrence of the
Soviet nuclear threat during the Cold
Climate change impacts have the potential
War to political extremism and
transnational terrorism in recent years.
to exacerbate factors linked to conflict
The national security risks of projected
climate change are as serious as any
body responsible for collating scientific
challenges we have faced.’
evidence on the issue, concludes that
climate change impacts have the potential
In October 2014, alongside the launch of the
to exacerbate factors linked to conflict in
Department of Defence 'Adaptation
some regions of the world.
Climate change is judged a significant security threat by the US military. Image: US Navy, Creative
Commons licence
These include extreme weather events,
disruption to food and water supplies, the
spread of disease, and migrationIn many
regions, the IPCC says that food production is
likely to fall in future decades, with lower yields
from major crops including wheat, maize and
rice projected. It also concludes that each
degree (Celsius) of warming is likely to decrease
renewable water resources by at least 20% for
an additional 7% of the global population.
Climate change is also likely to contribute to
longer-term changes in water availability,
particularly in areas dependent on glacier
meltwater.
Loss of land and livelihood, disease and
dwindling access to food and water can cause
humanitarian crises, and force people from their
homes, increasing the risk of instability. This is
especially so in parts of the world already
experiencing stresses such as food and water
shortages, poor health or recent conflict, either
between or within states. Poor societies with
limited capacity to adapt are likely to be worst
affected.
Global hotspots
Impacts of climate change are being felt across
the whole world. But the difference they make
to peoples’ lives will vary hugely between
regions. Societies in Polar regions and the
Equatorial belt are particularly vulnerable.
According to the UK Ministry of Defence, in subSaharan Africa, the combined challenge of an
increased population, demands on resources
and the effects of climate change (particularly
drought) on food and water supplies are likely
to lead to tension, which could result in conflict.
The MOD also cites the Middle East and North
Africa as a region likely to remain volatile for the
foreseeable future, with high potential for
tension. Social, environmental and economic
issues will probably continue to threaten the
region’s stability out to 2045, it says, with climate
change adding to stresses from an under-
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employed young population and a decline in
natural energy resources.
A large proportion of Asia’s population lives on
low-lying land along the coast that is
particularly at risk from sea level rise, storm
surges and typhoons. Globally, the urban
population is increasing rapidly, and many more
people are likely to live on or near the coast.
Rising sea levels are likely to increase
humanitarian disasters in these regions.
There are concerns that tensions will increase
due to climate-driven water variability in the
trans-boundary drainage systems linked to the
vast Tibetan Plateau in central Asia, whose rivers
supply more than one billion people with water.
Some impacts of climate change may have
impacts far from their source. Falls in crop yields,
for example, could cause disturbance linked to
food prices in other parts of the world.
For the military themselves
The US Government Accountability Office
(GAO) says that climate-linked problems
including rising sea levels and thawing
permafrost are already affecting military bases.
Many will need modifications, for example to
docks, while others may have to relocate.
Military forces are often called into play during
humanitarian crises. The UK’s Ministry of Defence
warns that climate change may raise the
frequency with which such interventions are
needed, with implications for resources.
Climate change is also likely to affect access to
resources such as food and minerals. The
projected large-scale geographical
redistribution of fish may increase tension
between countries over fishing rights. Melting of
summer sea ice may heighten competition for
resources in the Arctic, as well as increasing the
requirement for coastguard patrols.
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