GREENING CITIES: IS GOOD WILL ENOUGH ? Jean-Marc Jancovici September 17th, 2012 Contact : jean-marc.jancovici@carbone4.com www.carbone4.com Homo industrialis, GDP++ and 2 questions ??? CO2 Job structure, studies, leisure and holidays, health, retirement, globalization, information society, urban concentration and sprawling… O2 CnHp 80% of energy supply in the world ??? Carbon footprinting is actually… risk and opportunity assessment Oil shock Rising energy prices “oil crunch” on supply Rising costs of anything Norms, quotas, taxes, etc Recession Lower revenues or margin Reputation risk, legal risk Stronger public policies Fear of a future climate change or oil shock Higher expectations of customers or voters Higher NGO activity Banks pay more attention to “dependency on carbon” Changing conditions for a lot of things and decreasing agricultural yields Lack of investment Harder conditions for “carbon rich” projects Risk assessment of lending or investing money includes carbon Existing climate change One French: 10,5 tons CO2 equ in 2010 ± 20% 3,000 24% Teq CO2/French 2,500 23% 18% 2,000 17% 15% 1,500 31% Freight 6% 1,000 Freight 15% 18% 4% 500 0 13% Heating 90% 3% Home et Consommation Construction Energy consumption grosconstruction entretien des d'énergie des and heavy of homes logements logements repairs Meat38 % Alimentation Food TVs computers - etc 33% Autres biens de Other consommation consumer goods 18% Car travel 80% Déplacements Personal travel des(excludes personnes professional travel) 17% Public services 72% Services 4 Evolution from 2008 to 2010: lots of talk, less results 12,000 10,000 10,274 +1% 10,376 +1,1% 10,488 T eq CO2 / pers/ an 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2008 2009 Eco2climat 2010 5