Scottish Survey of Literacy and Numeracy
Support Materials
Ideas of chance and uncertainty: Second Level
Part 1
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk
Second Level: Ideas of Chance and Uncertainty
Experience and Outcome:
MNU 2-22
I can conduct simple experiments involving chance and communicate my predictions and findings
using the vocabulary of probability.
Learning Intention


Success Criteria
I will engage with the vocabulary of
probability in communicating my predictions
and findings.
I will explore the probability of an event
through conducting simple experiments.



I can identify events which are certain and
those which are impossible.
I can talk about the likelihood of an event
occurring
I am aware of how the implications of
chance are used in daily routines, decision
making and the media
Key Vocabulary:
Certain , impossible, likely, likelihood, unlikely, very unlikely, how likely, very likely, highly unlikely, highly
likely, chance, good chance, poor chance, evens, probability, scale, even chance, fair, unfair, fifty –fifty,
equal chance, percentage chance, one in two, two in three etc
Learning and Teaching Ideas
It is important that pupils understand the vocabulary of probability in order to communicate predictions and
findings when engaging in experiments.
*Reflective questions
What kind of concrete material do you think would enhance learning and teaching of this aspect?
What other sources could be accessed to aid the understanding of ‘Ideas of Chance and Uncertainty’?
Possible Learning and Teaching Contexts
Words on a Probability Scale
Discuss with pupils what is meant by certain, impossible, unlikely, likely, possible and 50/50 or an even
chance using examples, e.g. school is on tomorrow, you will grow to be over 3m tall, it will rain on
Saturday, you will watch tv tonight.
Pupils can then cut out each statement and arrange them from impossible to certain on a scale.
impossible
certain
Unlikely
50/50
Very unlikely
Maybe/maybe not
A good chance
Possible
A poor chance
Evens
Alternatively the cards can be made larger and pupils line up with the cards, explaining why they have put
themselves in a certain position.
Given a probability scale, as below, pupils match events / pictures to the scale and introduce numerical
values to the scale.
Impossible
50/50
certain
The pictures / events could be linked to local landmarks or events, for example your local football team
winning the league, a weather map with a large sun over your location, a picture of you holding a cheque
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk
from the lottery, Scotland winning the World Cup in football etc
http://www.transum.org/software/SW/Starter_of_the_day/Students/Probability_line.asp
(an interactive activity where pupils organize events from impossible to certain)
http://www.primaryresources.co.uk/ (probability events cards)
*Reflective questions:
What strategies can you use to support a pupil’s understanding and use of the vocabulary of probability?
How do you use this vocabulary during class activities and experiments?
Multilink selections
Put 20 red multilink cubes and 1 blue multilink cube in a bag. Discuss if you pull one out is it more likely to
be red, blue or green? Have pupils prepare bags of multilink cubes to meet given criteria, for example,
‘make it impossible to pick out a pink cube’, or ‘make it highly likely that you will pick out a blue cube’.
*Reflective questions:
Do pupils know what changes take place to the likelihood when more cubes are removed from the bag?
How well can they communicate their understanding?
How well do pupils understand the changes taking place in the ‘likelihoods’?
What other experiments could you use?
Cross Curricular contexts for learning
*Reflective questions
How does ‘ideas of chance and uncertainty’ contribute to the development of skills for learning, life and
work?
Reflecting on your curriculum plan, where do you see possible links with other curricular areas?
Developing and promoting the learning within ‘ideas of chance and uncertainty’ enriches learning within
other curriculum areas. For example, within social subjects, judging reliable sources of evidence against
unreliable sources to discuss an event.
READY FOR EMERGENCIES ON EDUCATION SCOTLAND WEBSITE.
Additional resources
A good introduction to probability and risk is to play games and discuss the chances of winning or possible
strategies to play the game, high risk or low risk questions to ask. Possible games include: guess who,
guess my number, rock, paper, scissors, play your cards right – higher or lower,
mastermind and yahtzee.
http://nrich.maths.org/1233 (interactive rock, paper, scissors)
http://www.transum.org/Software/Online_Exercise/Probability/PlayYourCardsRight/
(higher or lower – play your cards right game)
http://www.bbc.co.uk/skillswise/quickfind/search?keywords=probability
Ordering chances worksheet and Probability scale worksheets.
http://www.tes.co.uk/teaching-resource/Probability-games-6030266/
(mr barton maths – interactive probability games)
http://www.educationscotland.gov.uk