Delta Energy & Environment Ltd
Registered in Scotland: No SC259964
Registered Office: Floor F, Argyle House, Edinburgh, EH3 9DR
Roll-out of Sustainable Thermal Energy Technologies –
Where Does Current Policy Lead Us?
Coventry, 13th April 2016
Contact:
Lukas Bergmann | lukas.bergmann@delta-ee.com | +44 131 625 3332
Delta-ee’s core expertise
Delta-ee helps energy companies, network operators, policy makers and product manufacturers across
Europe navigate the transformation to a more distributed, customer centric, service-orientated energy future.
Delta-ee provides:
Customer insight
Technology expertise on
the customer side of the
meter
Policy & regulation
analysis
Business model
innovation
Market analysis &
scenarios
Demand forecasts &
profiles
Technology assessment
Strategy development &
business model analysis
Customer propositions
Selected clients:
Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
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What Delta-ee offers to clients
Research Services
Digital & Services Innovation
Connected Home Service
Customer Data Analytics
Energy Services Innovation
Consultancy
Market analysis and forecasts
Strategy
Propositions and customer research
Technology and product
Distributed Generation & Demand Side Flexibility
Energy Storage Service
Distributed Power Service
Demand Response In Europe
Heat
Microgen Insight Service
Heat Pump Research Service
Roadmap Service
Pathways® Tool
Micro-CHP Service
All European focus, except Distributed Power Service which is global, and
Microgen Insight Service which is UK
Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
Policy & regulation
Energy Demand forecasts
Summits
European ‘Connected Homes and
Energy’
Energy Services
Micro-CHP
Heat Pumps & Utilities
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Agenda
► Current Status – Where are we at, and where are we going?
► What are the options?
► Electrification – How likely is it?
► What about heat networks?
► A future for gas?
► Conclusions
► Questions
Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
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Current status – Where are we at, and where are we going?
UK Heat Demand by fuel (2013, in TWh)
Gas
Oil
Solid Fuel
Electricity
Heat sold
Bioenergy & Waste
Source: DECC (2015) – Energy Consumption in the UK
Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
UK Heat Demand by end use (2013, in TWh)
Water Heating
Process Use
Residential Space Heating
Cooking/Catering
Drying/separation
Non-Residential Space Heating
Source: DECC (2015) – Energy Consumption in the UK
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What are the options?
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Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
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Electrification – How likely is it?
Preparing the networks and the UK’s generation park is going to be a major challenge.
Cumulative number of interventions on the LV network over time for each scenario
Cumulative number of interventions
~50% HPs
~20% HPs
Low
Ref
High
Source: R. Sansom (2015) – Decarbonising Low Grade Heat For A Low Carbon Future
Source: Delta-ee, using simulated HP load profiles and the TRANSFORM model
Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
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Electrification – How likely is it?
Is the installer the bottleneck? Maybe, but it is also not a very attractive market for
them at the moment, with the main instrument to support its growth being slow to
deliver
RHI applications,
by month
technology
MCS registered
a/w HP installers
andand
average
installations per
installer
2,000
1,800
1,000
5
1,600
900
1,400
800
4
1,200
700
1,000
600
3
800
500
600
400
2
400
300
200
200
MCS registered ASHP installers
a/w installs per MCS a/w installer
2014
2015
MCS registered a/w installs per MCS a/w installer
Air source heat pump
Ground source heat pump
Biomass systems
February
Jul-15
January
December
Jan-15
November
Jul-14
October
Jan-14
September
July
June
May
Jul-13
August
Jan-13
April
March
Jul-12
February
January
Jan-12
December
November
Jul-11
October
Jan-11
September
Jul-10
August
June
0
Jan-10
May
April
0
100
July
1
0
Jan-16
2016
Solar thermal
Source: Delta-ee, based on data from the MCS and the Delta-ee Heat Pump Research Service
Source: Delta-ee, based on DECC’s monthly RHI statistics
Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
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Electrification – How likely is it?
Reaching the required uptake rates will require significant policy intervention from
2020 onwards (& the introduction of more stringent new build regulations before that)
Critical path for meeting 80% of all residential and commercial
properties’ heat demand with heat pumps by 2050
Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
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What about heat networks?
District Heating is going to be an important vector for decarbonising heat in dense
urban areas, but by 2050 will have to rely heavily on HP technologies or carbon neutral
fuel to be carbon free
Source: Element Energy
Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
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A future for gas?
?
?
+
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Two preconditions: Decarbonisation and (much) more efficient use
Source: R. Sansom (2015) – Decarbonising Low Grade Heat For A Low Carbon Future
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Conclusions
Electrification scenario poses significant challenges both on system and
individual level. We consider such a future rather unlikely or requiring
very strong additional measures to be taken.
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Other options, like heat networks and the decarbonisation of heat are also
challenging, but the sum of the combined challenges and the risks of a
mixed approach is likely to be lower than if we put all eggs in one basket.
No matter how the future will look like, policy interventions will likely have
to be stepped up a notch, and new and improved sustainable thermal
energy technologies will play a major role.
Experience from other European countries shows that a long-term, crossparty and cross-stakeholder consensus on the future of the UK’s energy
system and the roles of the main energy vectors within this future would
create the much needed stability for investment and innovation that so
often still seems to lack today.
Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
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Questions?
?
Experts in Heat & Distributed Energy
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