Appendix 8
Above
Shepton Mallet – a ‘before/after’ study examined the consequences of store relocation from out-ofcentre to edge-of-centre
There is a widespread consensus in the UK planning community that ‘linked trips’ 1 generated by large foodstores are potentially of critical importance to the viability and vitality of town centres. Indeed, in the case of market towns, some academics have argued that carefully sited supermarkets provide an essential ‘anchor’ for other services and must be seen, therefore, as a vital element in ‘sustainable development’ plans for those towns.
2 Despite that – as a National Retail Planning Forum (NRPF) scoping study 3 of 2004 makes clear – there are very considerable gaps in the evidence base on these topics, and ‘studies specifically focused on the retail planning aspects of linked trips are few and far between’. Meanwhile, planning applications and planning inquiries frequently merely recycle as
‘factoids’ a small and increasingly dated body of evidence.
After a decade in which the ‘town centres first’ approach to retail planning policy has become progressively more effective, and a new generation of foodstores developed ‘with the grain’ of planning
8.1
Town & Country Planning October 2009 433

policy on either ‘in-centre’ or ‘edge-of-centre’ sites has emerged, a critical issue is how such developments are performing in terms of generating the linked trips essential to the ‘urban buzz’ and economic strength of town centres. As Guy 4 has noted, there has tended to be the assumption that established patterns of linked trips would be replicated by the newer forms of development.
However, recent evidence on these issues, and on the related matter of the levels of ‘clawback’ of retail trade associated with such developments, is largely missing and is urgently needed. In particular, as Guy 5 notes, data on linked-trip generation levels achieved by similar types of store on ‘in-centre’ or
‘edge-of-centre’ sites compared with ‘out-of-centre’ locations would be particularly valuable.
In this article we begin the process of providing that essential new evidence to the planning community by reporting the main findings from a detailed study of a relatively uncommon but potentially insightful case in which a previous out-ofcentre foodstore was relocated onto an edge-of centre site in a UK market town in October 2007.
The study was before/after in design. It consisted of three cross-sectional consumer surveys
(averaging 418 respondents in each survey), together with associated ‘trader’ surveys, and retailunit usage mapping to update available Experian-
Goad survey data on the centre. The surveys were conducted two months before the relocation of the store (August 2007), six months after the relocation
(April 2008), and 12 months after (October 2008).
Consumers were questioned face-to-face by the researchers, primarily in the town’s existing high street, and the surveys were stratified to ensure representation across age groups and across the town’s catchment area.
The study forms part of a wider investigation, commissioned by Tesco and conducted by the
University of Southampton. In this article we concentrate solely on the research gap identified by
Guy – namely, what are the linked-trip generation levels achieved by a very similar store (a direct replacement involving no change of ownership) in its new edge-of-centre location compared with its previous out-of-centre location? The article begins with a brief outline of the case. It then summarises the main findings on linked-trip generation and the initial impact of the new store on the vitality and viability of the town centre. Finally, it addresses the potential significance of the findings in planning policy terms.
The case – a regeneration-focused edge-ofcentre development
The case centres on the relocation of Tesco’s store in Shepton Mallet, Somerset – a mediumsized market town (9,000 population) which by the mid-2000s had a viability and vitality problem.
Specifically, it had a limited retail offer, a high level
Above
Fig. 1 Locations of the new store and the former out-of- centre site of shopping expenditure leakage to other centres, 6 and a vacant unit level twice the national average.
The existing Tesco store (18,362 square feet) was located 1.6 miles out-of-centre. Additionally there were two small supermarkets – Somerfield and Coop – located in-centre.
In 2005 Tesco sought planning permission for a new, larger (41,321 square feet), more central store, involving a proportionally smaller (58%) increase in food retail space, which would anchor a proposed retail development on a former industrial site at the periphery of the town centre. The development was to include other smaller non-food retail units, a petrol station and a family restaurant. As Fig. 1 demonstrates, its location adjacent to the existing town centre implied both an extension of the existing town centre and an inevitable realignment
434 Town & Country Planning October 2009
8.2

of the centre of gravity of the existing centre from north to south.
The application was granted in August 2005, essentially to increase the town’s retail catchment area, reduce ‘leakage’ of shopping expenditure to other centres, and to act as a catalyst for the wider regeneration of the town centre.
7 The new Tesco store and separate petrol station opened in October
2007, and by October 2008 all but one of the remaining nine units in the development were occupied – two by national retailers (Boots and New
Look) relocating from the High Street to the edgeof-centre development, and others by national chains (Laura Ashley, Argos, Costa Coffee) not previously represented in the town. At the same time as the new Tesco store opened, the existing
Somerfield supermarket closed and, following a period of vacancy, was converted to an Aldi limitedrange discount supermarket which was in operation at the time of the ‘12 months after opening’ survey.
Trade ‘clawback’ and linked-trip generation
Averaging across the three surveys, 47% of respondents lived within the immediate (5 minute drive time) catchment of the town centre. Prior to the relocation of the Tesco store, 48.4% of those
‘outshopped’ – that is to say, conducted their main food shopping outside the town centre. Six months after the opening of the new edge-of-centre store, and using an ‘extended boundaries’ definition of the town centre (see Table 2 on the right) ‘outshopping’ had fallen by two-thirds to 16.9%, and that level continued to fall, reaching 10.3% 12 months after the opening of the new store.
Conventionally defined, the clawback level was therefore almost 80%, most of which related to existing consumers simply shifting with the store as it relocated from out-of-centre to edge-of-centre.
However, part also related to the new store attracting a significantly greater number and percentage of consumers from all zones of the town’s catchment. In the 5 minute drive time zone, for example, 82% used the new store for their main food shopping 12 months after its relocation, compared with 61% who had used the out-ofcentre store. Similarly, in the outer parts of the catchment (5-15 minute drive time), the ‘pull power’ of the town centre as a main food shopping destination increased significantly, from 16% of respondents using it in the pre-relocation period to an average of 50% in the ‘post opening’ surveys – essentially as those consumers switched their food shopping from competing stores/centres equidistant or further from their homes.
8
Table 1 documents, for all main food shoppers at the Tesco store (either the out-of-centre store in the pre-relocation survey or the edge-of-centre store after relocation), their perceived likelihood of engaging in linked trips involving a visit to other town centre shops on their visits to the Tesco store.
Factoring in the sample variability which results from using three cross-sectional surveys, the percentage of respondents who claimed to ‘always or frequently’ combine visits to stores in the preexisting town centre with their visit to the Tesco store increased by more than 70% from the ‘out-ofcentre’ base level, to 33.6% across the ‘postrelocation’ surveys. Alternatively, using a wider definition of linked-trip propensity to also include those who claimed to ‘occasionally’ combine visits, that percentage increased to approximately 64%.
Relocation of the store was accompanied by a substantial increase in the percentage of main food shoppers at Tesco whose usual mode of accessing the store was via walking. That percentage rose from
6.9% in the pre-relocation period to an average of
25.3% across the two ‘post-relocation’ surveys.
Reciprocally, car usage declined from 88.7% to 71%.
The propensity for linked trips among those who usually walked to the store was significantly higher than among car users – 49.6% of walkers compared with 27% of car users claimed ‘always or frequently’ to combine visits to stores in the pre-existing centre with their visits to the relocated Tesco store.
Table 1
Linked-trip propensities of main food shoppers at the Tesco store (‘out-of-centre’ in prerelocation survey, ‘edge-of-centre’ after relocation)
Pre-relocation survey
‘Six months after opening’ survey
No.
%
75 34.9
‘12 months after opening’ survey
No.
%
80 32.3
No.
%
Always or frequently combine the town centre and store
Occasionally combine town centre and store
Never combine town centre and store
Total valid responses a
30
45
81
156
19.2
28.8
51.9
100.0
a
Out of 160, 227 and 249 Tesco main food shoppers, respectively
8.3
70
70
215
32.6
32.6
100.0
71
97
248
28.6
39.1
100.0
Town & Country Planning October 2009 435

Table 2
Shepton Mallet retail structure, 2006 and April 2008 and October 2008
Goad 2006 ‘Six months after’ survey
(fixed boundaries)
‘Six months after’ survey
(extended boundaries)
‘12 months after’ survey
(fixed boundaries)
Comparison retail
Convenience retail
Retail services
Financial and business services
Leisure services
Health and medical services
Public services
Transport services
Vacant units
Total retail/ services
No. of units
40
6
17
15
%
32.8
4.9
13.9
12.3
16
1
7
5
15
122
13.1
0.8
5.7
4.1
12.3
100.0
No. of units
32
6
18
16
20
2
7
5
16
122
%
26.2
4.9
14.8
13.1
16.4
1.6
5.7
4.1
13.1
100
No. of units
39
7
19
16
%
29.3
5.3
14.3
12.0
20
2
7
5
18
133
15.0
1.5
5.3
3.8
13.5
100.0
No. of units
33
7
18
15
%
26.8
5.7
14.6
12.2
20
2
7
5
16
123
16.3
1.6
5.7
4.1
13.0
100
‘12 months after’ survey
(extended boundaries)
No. of units
%
40
8
19
15
29.9
6.0
14.2
11.2
21
2
15.7
1.5
7
5
17
134
5.2
3.7
12.7
100.0
Town centre viability and vitality
Three perspectives on the changes in viability and vitality of Shepton Mallet as a retail centre are available from the Southampton surveys – the opinions of consumers who use the town; the opinion of traders located in the town centre; and evidence on retail and service unit usage before and after the relocation of the Tesco store and the opening of the edge-of-centre development.
In terms of the latter, Table 2 – compiled from
Experian-Goad survey data relating to 2006 and updated by the Southampton researchers six and 12 months after the new store opened – outlines the changes in the retail/service composition of the town on both a pre-existing town centre boundaries and
‘extended’ boundaries (to include the new edge-ofcentre development) basis. Three trends stand out:
●
The overall increase of 10% in the number of
● retail/service units observed on an ‘extended boundaries’ basis – and which simply reflects the additional retail capacity created by the new development – was not accompanied by a decimation of the pre-existing centre. Indeed, there was no change in the number of occupied units in the pre-existing centre 12 months after the new foodstore/development opened. And ‘convenience’ retail in the pre-existing centre did not experience the adverse impact often suggested – indeed, retail units in this category increased slightly.
9
The centre of gravity of ‘comparison’ retail shifted towards the edge-of-centre development, as two national retail chains relocated to the new development, other national chains entered the development, and a small number of existing retailers exited the market.
10
● The ‘gaps’ in the pre-existing centre resulting from that realignment were filled, in particular, by ‘leisure services’ – notably by the opening of new cafés and delicatessens, which in turn contributed to the vitality of the centre. Vitality benefits also accrued from the decision of a leading local ‘comparison’ retailer within the pre-existing centre to make a substantial investment in refurbishing its store.
11
In terms of consumer opinions, there were clear perceptions of regenerative impacts on the town.
When asked their views on the declining viability of the town as a retail centre (‘Is the town centre in decline?’), the percentage ‘agreeing or agreeing strongly’ decreased consistently across the surveys
– from 60.3% in the pre-relocation survey to 43.4% in the ‘12 months after’ survey. Twelve months after the opening of the relocated store a majority (62%) of consumers had concluded that the new store was beneficial for themselves and their families (compared with 8% who believed the opposite). Additionally,
65% of consumers perceived beneficial effects for
‘local residents’ in general – overwhelmingly because of reduced shopping travel miles consequent on improved local access to a wider-range retail offer.
In terms of their perceptions of the impact of the new store on ‘the town’, 46% regarded the impact to have been positive – largely because of the ‘buzz’ and vitality benefits associated with the store attracting more people to shop in the pre-existing town centre – whereas 31% believed the opposite, taking the counter-view that the new store had diverted footfall from the town centre.
In terms of trader opinions – perhaps surprisingly to commentators who subscribe to a ‘supermarket
436 Town & Country Planning October 2009
8.4

onslaught’ on small towns thesis – traders in the town did not hold overwhelmingly negative perceptions of the effect of the new store. Indeed, at a very similar level (64% of traders) to that of consumers, their view 12 months after the opening of the new store was that it was beneficial for ‘local residents’.
In terms of the new store’s effects on their ‘own business’, however, they were less sure. Twelve months after the opening of the new store, 28% of traders believed those effects to have been positive – largely because of the extra ‘pull power’ of the town as a retail centre – whereas 33% believed the effects to have been negative, citing the realignment of the centre of gravity and relocation of two national chains to the edge-of-centre as the main reason. But, once again, the fact that roughly equal numbers of traders perceived positive, rather than negative, impacts of the new store on the prospects of their own businesses may surprise those who subscribe to a destruction of local businesses perspective on these issues.
The findings and their significance
Although any single case study is inevitably limited in the extent to which it can be generalised, extra leverage can be obtained by taking advantage of opportunities to build case studies around ‘natural experiments’.
12 In this case, the natural experiment arises from the relocation of a very similar type of store (in terms of operator, merchandising style, core ranging, etc.) from an out-of-centre to an edgeof-centre location, and the opportunity presented by that relocation to observe the linked-trip generation and town centre viability consequences. Despite the fact that the natural experiment in this case is affected by the enlargement of the store and its embedding into a larger development which occurred simultaneously with the relocation, some of that extra leverage remains and enables the study to offer useful insights into policy-significant issues.
In summary, the findings of the study regarding linked trips are that:
●
An edge-of-centre rather than an out-of-centre
● location for a similar store produces a substantial uplift in linked-trip propensity – in this case an increase of more than 70%.
Despite extreme difficulties in comparing overall linked-trip levels between studies, because of survey design, questionnaire wording, definition of linkedtrip propensity, etc., the edge-of-centre linked-trip generation levels reported here (between 33% and
64% depending on definition used) are considerably higher than the extremely low levels (in the region
10-15%) reported by Guy 13 from two UK studies relating to the 1990s.
14 This is particularly the case given that levels are known to depend on the range and quality of the town centre retail offer, and, in that regard, Shepton Mallet’s acknowledged limited retail offer suggests linked trips at the lower end of the spectrum.
15
● As expected from previous studies, an edge-ofcentre location results in higher levels of consumers able to satisfy their main food shopping requirements via walking to the store – additionally those consumers have a greater propensity to undertake linked trips. However, the linked-trip propensities of the non-car users reported here appear to be significantly higher than evidence from the 1990s indicates.
16
Although it was not the primary objective of the wider study from which this case is drawn to explore
‘causal’ links between linked-trip generation and town centre viability, the case nevertheless offers some useful (albeit indirect) perspectives on these issues.
The findings of the study – which must positioned within a general context of the considerable ‘churn’ in retail/service units that inevitably occurs over time in any town centre – are that:
● Trade clawback on a conventionally defined basis was considerable (80%). Although most of this related to existing consumers simply shifting with the store as it relocated from out-of-centre to edge-of-centre, the new store substantially increased the ‘pull power’ of the town from the less central and outer parts of its catchment, and resulted in more intense usage by consumers within the immediate catchment. In turn, these extra consumers – via linked trips – potentially increased footfall and ‘buzz’ in the town centre
(although some traders did not perceive that).
●
●
Despite popular views which assume the opposite and the fears of many local traders, the new edge-of-centre store was not accompanied by a decimation of the pre-existing centre – at least over the first year of its operation. Although the edge-ofcentre development, anchored by the new store, produced the anticipated realignment of the town’s pre-existing retail centre of gravity, new entry by small traders occurred, resulting in no overall change in the number of occupied retail/service units in the pre-existing retail core 12 months after the opening of the new store/development.
The increased attractiveness of the town as a main food shopping destination – perceived by both consumers and traders – was accompanied by a potentially important shift in prevailing consumer attitudes towards the town’s previously declining viability. However, the extent to which that might
8.5
Town & Country Planning October 2009 437

lead to a more sustainable future for the town was unclear – not least as a consequence of the recession, which deepened significantly immediately after the final case study survey.
What then is the potential significance of these findings in planning policy terms? Here we note that whereas the policy context for the ‘with the grain’ foodstore developments of the past decade has been the ‘town centre first’ approach of Planning
Policy Guidance 6 (PPG6) and subsequently Planning
Policy Statement 6 (PPS6), the policy context in which studies of the impact of those developments becomes germane is the new consolidated planning statement PPS4: Planning for Prosperous
Economies .
17 That statement (currently in draft form) will bring together key polices concerned with sustainable economic development in both urban and rural areas with policies relating to promotion of the vitality and viability of town centres to enable them to act as drivers of economic development.
In comparison with PPS6, which it subsumes, the draft version of PPS4 includes details of the envisaged ‘impact assessment’ of retail development proposals which had been the subject of a separate
Department for Communities and Local Government
(DCLG) consultation during 2008.
18 What is clear from draft PPS4 is that impact assessments will be required to address sustainability and accessibility issues together with the effects of development proposals on town centre vitality and viability.
In particular, the extent to which ‘the location of the proposed development will promote linked trips with existing centres’ 19 is explicitly mentioned, and there is also stress throughout the draft on the importance of the evidence base. In the context of
‘impact’, the latter implies longitudinal assessment of development proposals. It is suggested that, ideally, that should involve consideration of impact over the first five years following the opening of a development. However, the publicly available evidence base in the UK relating to assessments of this type is remarkably limited – as also is evidence relating to the generation of linked trips from differently located retail developments and the consequent effects on town centre viability.
In this article, we have contributed new findings to that extremely sparse evidence base using a
‘before/after’ study to examine the consequences of a relatively uncommon but revealing store relocation.
The findings are of importance to a future planning policy environment in which ‘impact’ assessments of retail development proposals become a key feature. Additionally, they have relevance in terms of the new PPS4’s guidance (policy EC5) on what to do about existing retail centres judged to be in decline.
●
Neil Wrigley , Dionysia Lambiri and Katherine Cudworth are with the School of Geography, University of Southampton.
The views expressed here are personal.
Notes
1 Defined in a NRPF Scoping Paper (see note 3) as a
‘secondary trip which follows a primary trip – e.g. when after a visit to an edge-of-town retail store, a shopper undertakes an associated trip to one or more destinations within the town centre’
2 N.A. Powe and T. Shaw: ‘Exploring the current and future role of market towns in servicing their hinterlands: a case study of Alnwick in the North East of
England’. Journal of Rural Studies , 2004, Vol. 20, 405-18
3 Linked Trips and the Viability and Vitality of Centres of
Retail Activity . NRPF Scoping Paper. Oxford Institute of
Retail Management, Templeton College, University of
Oxford, 2004
4 C.M. Guy: Planning for Retail Development . Routledge,
2006
5 Planning for Retail Development (see note 4), p.183
6 Retail and Town Centre Retail Uses Study . Mendip
District Council, 2006
7 Retail and Town Centre Retail Uses Study (see note 6), p.80
8 For example, from Wells Tesco, Glastonbury Morrisons,
Midsomer-Norton Tesco, and Frome Asda
9 An independent greengrocer opened in the existing centre immediately prior to the Tesco relocation and remained open 12 months after the Tesco opening.
Additionally, the conversion of the Somerfield store to
Aldi arguably strengthened the convenience retail offer
10 Of the net reduction of seven comparison retail units in the ‘pre-existing centre’ between the Goad 2006 and
Southampton ‘12 month after’ surveys, three relate to exits which occurred before the new Tesco opened, two to relocations to the new ‘edge-of-centre’ development, one to a conversion of a unit from comparison to leisure services, and just one (an independent men’s clothing retailer) to the exit of a small comparison retailer after the opening of the new store/development and realignment of the centre. Additionally, there was one case (a health and beauty product independent) which involved a comparison retailer entering the preexisting centre after the opening of the Tesco store and then quickly exiting
11 Haskins furniture store
12 M. Petticrew et al .: ‘Natural experiments: an underused tool for public health’. Public Health , 2005, Vol. 119, 751-7
13 Planning for Retail Development (see note 4) p.182-5, reporting studies by Hass-Klau et al . (1998) and
Bennison et al . (2000)
14 However, it is important to note that the figures Guy reports are from exit surveys of shoppers, and it can be expected that those figures are likely to be lower than those from surveys reporting stated/perceived behaviour
15 However, this is likely to be offset by the short distance
(150-350 metres) and easy pedestrian access between the edge-of-centre development and the pre-existing town centre
16 However, once again, it is important to note the difference between linked-trip levels likely to be reported from exit surveys compared with those from surveys reporting stated/perceived behaviour
17 Consultation Paper on a new Planning Policy Statement
4 : Planning for Prosperous Economies . DCLG, May 2009
18 Proposed Changes to Planning Policy 6: Planning for
Town Centres . DCLG, Jul. 2008
19 Consultation Paper on a new Planning Policy Statement
4 : Planning for Prosperous Economies (see note 17), p.35
438 Town & Country Planning October 2009
8.6

1
8.7

 New   high ‐ quality,   up ‐ to ‐ date   research   on   the   impacts   of   supermarket   development   on   UK   market   towns   and   district   centres   has   been   long   overdue.

This   rigorously   designed   and   executed   University   of   Southampton   ‘before/after’   study   conducted   in   eight   centres   2007 ‐ 09   provides   the   missing   research   needed   to   move   forward   highly   polarised   debates   on   the   nature   of   those   impacts

Evidence   from   over   8000   consumers   and   1000   traders   surveyed   finds   that:

Supermarkets   built   on   the   edge   of   town   centres   encourage   significantly   fewer   local   residents   to   leave   those   towns   for   their   main   food   shopping.

The   new   supermarkets   are   not   just   being   used   for   ‘one ‐ stop’   shopping.
Via   the   mechanism   of   linked   trips   the   existing   town   centres   experience   increased   footfall   and   urban   ‘buzz’,   helping   to   maintain   and   enhance   their   vitality   and   viability.

The   new   supermarkets   encourage   a   significant   decrease   in   car   usage   and   increase   in   walking   on   main   food   shopping   trips   amongst   local   residents.
 A   year   after   the   opening   of   the   new   supermarkets   two ‐ thirds   of   consumers   believed   the   new   stores   were   beneficial   to   themselves,   local   residents   and   the   town   centre.
Only   8%   believed   otherwise.
 Feedback   from   traders   was   consistently   positive   about   the   new   supermarkets’   impact   on   local   residents   and   the   town   centre.
Contrary   to   popular   opinion,   traders   also   took   a   generally   positive   or   neutral   view   on   the   impact   on   their   own   businesses.

Detailed   study   of   changes   in   retail   composition   of   the   eight   centres   provides   little   support   for   widely   held   views   linking   supermarket   development   to   the   decimation   of   existing   centres   and   their   retail   diversity.
This   report   presents   the   results   of   a   major   three ‐ year,   two ‐ region,   before/after   study   of   the   impacts   of   foodstore   developments   on   UK   market   towns   and   district   centres.
The   aims   of   the   study   were   to   move   forward   highly ‐ polarised   policy   debates,   which   have   focused   on   and   disputed   the   nature   of   such   impacts,   on   the   basis   of   findings   obtained   from   a   rigorously   designed   and   executed,   before/after   investigation,
2
8.8

conducted   during   2007 ‐ 09   by   a   research   team   from   the   University   of   Southampton.
Specifically   the   study   was   designed   to   reflect   the   store   development   consequences   of   more   than   a   decade   of   refocused   retail   planning   regulation   –   regulation   which   from   1996   onwards   has   prioritized   a
approach   to   retail    development   and   enjoyed   strong   cross ‐ party   political   support.
In   particular,   the   study   represents   a   much   needed   revisit   of   the   findings   of   the   influential,   but   increasingly   outdated,   Department   of   the   Environment,   Transport   and   the   Regions   (DETR)   report   on   the   same   topic  ‐
s   (DETR,   1998)   ‐    which   summarised   case   study   research   essentially   completed   in   the
‐ PPG6   era     That   is   to   say,   there   was   a   growing   need   by   the   late   2000s   to   revisit   and   update   the   DETR   commissioned   research   to   reflect   the   consequences   of   the   decade   of   more   flexible
foodstore   developments   which   followed   the   implementation   of   PPG6   and   the   ‘sequential   test’   in   1996.
The   Southampton   study   presented   here   is   timely   for   two   major   reasons.
First,   because   research   on   this   topic   since   the   publication   of   the
DETR   report   has   been   limited   in   quantity,   scope   and   depth   –   giving   rise   to   a   situation   where   policy   debates   have   run   dangerously   ahead   of   an   increasingly   outdated   evidence   base.
Secondly,   because   recently   published   planning   policy   guidance   outlined   in   PPS4
(DCLG,   2009),   and   articulated   in   the   G   V   A   Grimley ‐ produced   ‘good   practice   guide’   which   accompanies
PPS4,   has   reiterated   and   underlined   the   importance   of   ‘impact’   assessment   to   the
consensus   ‘town   centres’   first’   approach   to   retail    development.
Commissioned   by   Tesco,   the   study   was   conducted   by   a   University   of   Southampton   based   research   team   motivated   by   the   opportunity   to   assemble   and   inject   into   policy   debate   the   first   new   large ‐ scale   evidence   base   for   more   than   a   decade   relating   to   the   impacts   of   foodstore ‐ development   on   smaller   UK   retail   centres.
The   extensive   data   collection   involved   in   the   study   took   place   during   the   period   August   2007   to
December   2009   and   focused   on   eight   centres   in   two   clusters   ‐  a   cluster   of   four   market   towns   in   the   South   West   and   a   cluster   of   four   district   centres   in   the   North
West.
In   each   cluster,   three   of   the   centres   experienced   the   opening   of   a   new   large
‘in ‐ centre’   or   ‘edge ‐ of ‐ centre’   foodstore   during   the   period   September   2007   to
November   2008.
The   remaining   centre   in   each   cluster   was   selected   on   the   basis   of   having   experienced   no   recent   large   foodstore   opening.
That   is   to   say,   it   acted   as   a   no ‐ development   ‘control’   study   and,   in   turn,   formed   part   of   a   more   extensive   control   strategy   used   in   the   study.
In   the   six   centres   experiencing   foodstore   development,   the   impacts   of   the   developments   during   the   first   full   year   of   their   operation   were   evaluated   using   extensive   before/after   consumer   and   trader   questionnaires.
In   turn   those   questionnaires   were   supplemented   by   detailed   Experian/Goad   and   Southampton   research   team   surveys   of   the   changing   retail   and   service   unit   composition   of   the   centres.
Equivalent   data   was   obtained   for   the   two   no ‐ development   ‘control’   centres   and,   additionally,   an   extensive   wider   system   of   ‘controls’   was   created   involving   both
‘analogue’   centres   and    regional   samples   of   retail   centres.
More   than   8000   consumer
3
8.9

and   1000   trader   responses   were   obtained   during   the   course   of   the   study,   and
Experian/Goad   retail ‐ composition   survey   data   for   more   than   200   centres   were   used   as   part   of   the   study’s   wider   ‘control’   strategy.
This   report   begins   by   considering   the   policy   context   in   which   the   study   was   commissioned.
In   particular,   it   examines   the   store   development   consequences   of   the   decade   of   tightening   planning   regulation   which   followed   the   implementation   of
PPG6,   together   with   debates   relating   to   the   potential   effects   of   corporate   foodstore   openings   on   the   vitality   and   viability   of   small   retail   centres.
In   the   latter   context,   the   report   highlights   the   increasingly   contrasting   positions   held   by   academic   researchers,   relative   to   those   held   by   campaigning   groups   and   frequently   translated   via   media
reports   into   received   popular   opinion.
Consideration   of   the   policy   context   is   then   followed   by   a   detailed   discussion   of   the   study’s   research   design   and   methodology.
That   discussion   highlights   the   methodological   improvements  ‐  relative   to   the   original   DETR   commissioned   research
‐  which   were   incorporated   into   the   Southampton   study.
In   addition,   it   stresses   the   rigour   of   the   research   design   and   execution,   and   the   transparency   of   the   study’s   methodology   and   reporting.
The   main   body   of   the   report   (Chapters   4   to   13)   contains   aggregate   findings   (Chapters
4   and   5)   and   detailed   individual   case   study   results   (Chapters   6   to   13)   from   the   clusters   of   market   towns   and   district   centres.
Chapter   14   then   outlines   the   wider
‘control’   strategy   implemented   to   deal   with   the   potentially   distorting   impacts   of   the   crisis   of   consumer   confidence   and   deepening   economic   recession   which   followed   the   global   financial   crisis   and   which   affected   the   consumer   and   trader   surveys   completed   during   the   second   half   of   the   study     (October   2008   –   November   2009).
Finally,
Chapter   15   provides   a   short   summary   of   the   study’s   major   conclusions.
In   all   six   centres   that   experienced   the   opening   of   a   new   foodstore   a   significant   level   of
of   food   shopping,   vital   to   anchoring   other   retail   and   services   in   the   centres   and   promoting/sustaining   their   viability,   was   evident.
The   new   foodstores   encouraged   significantly
local   residents   (those   within   5   minutes   drive   time   of   the   centres)   to   leave   those   towns/centres   for   their   main   food   shopping.
Indeed,   whereas   prior   to   the   opening   of   the   new   stores,   55.7%   of   that   group   left   the   towns/centres   to   conduct   their   main   food   shopping   ‐  i.e
‘outshopped’   ‐  averaging   across   the   two   post ‐ opening   surveys   (6   and   12   months   after)   this   figure   reduced   by   more   than   a   half   to   25.4%.
Conventionally   defined,   that   implies   an   almost   70%   increase   in   ‘claw   back’   of   food   shopping   relative   to   the   pre ‐ opening   situation   –   most   of   which   relates   to   local   residents   who   switch   to   the   new   foodstores   having   previously   ‘outshopped’   at   distant   ‘out ‐ of ‐ centre’   style   supermarkets.
In   turn,   this   was   accompanied   by   a   significant
in   car   usage   and
in   walking   on
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food   shopping   trips   amongst   this   group.
Indeed   the   average   level   of   walking   for   that   purpose   reported   by   the   group
relative   to   the   pre ‐ opening   position.
Critically   important   to   market   towns   and   district   centres   experiencing   foodstore   development   on   ‘in ‐ centre’   or   ‘edge ‐ of ‐ centre’   sites   is   the   extent   to   which   trade
‘claw   back’   associated   with   the   developments   might   spill ‐ over,   via   the   mechanism   of
,   increasing   footfall   and   urban   ‘buzz’   in   the   existing   centres   and   helping   to   maintain   or   enhance   their   vitality   and   viability.
Evidence   from   the   study’s   consumer   surveys   relating   to   linked   trip   propensities,   shows   that   the   new   foodstores   are   not   just   used   for   ‘one   stop   shopping’.
Indeed   68%   of   respondents   claimed   to   combine   visits   to   the   new   foodstores   with   visits   to   other   shops   or   services   in   the   existing   retail   centres   (with   42%   reporting   that   they   ‘always’   or   ‘frequently’   combined   visits   in   this
way).
Despite   considerable   inter ‐ case   variation   in   linked   trip   propensities   ‐  with   significantly   higher   average   levels   (80%   compared   to   51%)   reported   in   the   market   towns   than   in   district   centres,   reflecting   typical   differences   between   the   two   types   of   centre   in   terms   of   their   retail ‐  versus   service ‐ unit   balances,   attractiveness   and   comprehensiveness   of   their   existing   retail   offers,   structure   and   compactness   of   their   layouts,   proximity   to   competing   centres   and   so   on   ‐   there   are   indications   that   the   overall   linked   trip   levels   found   in   the   Southampton   study   are   considerably   higher   than   some   of   the   extremely   low     levels   reported   by   Guy   (2006,   182 ‐ 85)   from   UK    studies   relating   to   the   1990s.
Possibly   that   reflects   the   post ‐ PPG6   decade ‐ long   trend   towards   more   sensitive
integration   of   new   stores   into   pre ‐ existing   centre   structures  ‐  examples   of   which   are   seen   in   the   layout   and   design   of   some   of   the   case   study   developments.
More   generally   however,   and   taken   together   with   the   trade’   ‘claw   back’   and   detailed   case   study   evidence,   the   study’s   findings   on   the   spectrum   and   likely   upper   and   lower   bounds   of   linked   trip   propensities   throw   considerable   doubt   on   the   DETR   (1998)   report’s   conclusions   regarding   a   ‘more   limited   than   commonly   claimed’   ‘claw   back’   of   food   shopping   expenditure,   and   of   there   being   limited   evidence   of   spill ‐ over   benefits   to   existing   town/district   centres,   from   ‘edge ‐ of ‐ centre’   foodstore   developments
During   the   early   to   mid   2000s,   the   major   UK   food   retailers   experienced   increasingly   negative   media   reporting   which   reflected   the   anti   corporate   retail   views   of   campaigning   organisations   and   environmentally   focused   NGOs.
As   noted   in   Chapter
2,   that   sustained   media   and   campaigning   group   pressure   became   highly   embedded   in   public   perception,   and   increasing   examples   of   community   based   resistance   to   the   store   expansion   programmes   of   the   leading   food   retailers   began   to   be   reported.
Perhaps   surprisingly   in   this   context,   the   extensive   consumer   surveys   in   the
Southampton   study   reveal   overwhelmingly
consumer   responses   to   the   new
‘in ‐ centre’   or   ‘edge ‐ of ‐ centre’   foodstore   developments   ‐  responses   which   became   increasingly   more   positive   over   the   first   full   year   of   operation   of   the   new   stores.
Indeed,   12   months   after   the   opening   of   the   new   stores   70.4%   of   survey   respondents   had   concluded   that   the   new   foodstore   was   beneficial   for   themselves   and   their
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families   (compared   to   just   4.8%   who   believed   it   to   be   non ‐ beneficial)   –   their   positive   attitude   being   mainly   attributable   to   the   travel   saving   benefits   of   improved   local
access   to   full ‐ range   food   retail   (i.e.
reduced   food ‐ shopping   miles).
Consumers   also   perceived   wider   benefits   accruing   to   both   ‘local   residents’   and   to   the   existing   ‘town/centre’.
Again   these   views   became   progressively   more   positive   over   the   first   full   year   of   the   new   stores’   operation,   with   the   main   reason   given   by   consumers   for   perceiving   these   benefits   relating   to   the   belief   that   the   new   stores   had   attracted   more   people   to   shop   in   the   existing   centre.
That   is   to   say,   a   perception   of   urban   ‘buzz’   and   vitality   benefits   spilling   over   from   the   new   stores   and   the   trade
‘claw   back’   which   those   stores   generate
In   terms   of   trader   impacts   the   research   reveals   a   more   complex   picture,   further   complicated   by   the   effects   of   the   deepening   recession   which   affected   much   of   the
second   half   of   the   study.
Local   traders   were   consistently   positive   about   the   perceived   effects   of   the   foodstore   developments   for   ‘local   residents’,   citing   benefits   accruing   from   the   improved   range   of   food   products   available   and   the   accessibility   benefits   for   the   less   mobile/car ‐ less   residents.
Perhaps   surprisingly   to   those   who   subscribe   to   a   ‘supermarket   onslaught   on   small   centres’   thesis   traders   were   also   far   more   positive   than   negative   about   the   effects   of   the   new   foodstore   developments   on   the   existing   centres,   citing   the   enhanced   attraction   of   shoppers   and   the   potential   of   the   new   stores   to   act   as   an
‘anchor’   for   the   sustained   vitality   and   viability   of   the   centres.
Over   the   course   of   the   first   full   year   of   the   new   stores’   operation   traders   initial   optimism   in   this   regard   gradually   declined.
However,   12   months   after   opening   of   the   new   stores,   twice   as   many   traders   still   expressed   the   view   that   the   new   stores   were   ‘good’   for   the   existing   centres   rather   than   ‘bad’.
Finally,   and   possibly   even   more   surprising   given   the   often   forecast   and   popularly ‐ believed   likely   decimation   of   existing   centres   and   their   retail   diversity,   it   is   notable   that   in   all   waves   of   the   study   (before   opening,   6   months   and   12   months   after   opening)   more   traders   took   the   view   that   the   new   stores   were   likely   to   be   ‘good’   rather   than   ‘bad’   for   their   own   business,   citing   the   spill ‐ over   benefits   they   expected   to   receive   via   linked   trips   from   the   trade   ‘claw   back’   achieved   by   the   new   stores.
Once   again,   traders’   optimism   in   this   regard   declined   over   the   first   full   year   of   the   new   stores’   operation.
However,   analysis   of   traders   perceptions   of   the   main   factors   which   had   affected   their   sales   over   the   first   full   year   following   the   opening   of   the   new   foodstores   revealed   that   43.5%   believed   the
‘general   economic   climate’   (specifically   the   economic   slowdown   and   crisis   of   consumer   confidence)   to   be   the   primary   factor   in   that   decline   in   optimism.
In   contrast   only   15.4%   cited   negative   impacts   from   the   new   store   developments   ‐  indeed   a   figure   slightly   exceeded   by   the   16.3%   who   cited   adverse   local   planning   decisions   (regarding   traffic   management   schemes,   town   centre   environment
improvement,   etc)
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Retail/service   unit   numbers/composition   evidence   from   Experian/Goad   and
Southampton   research   team   surveys   provides   little   support   for   popular   views   which   assume   new   ‘in ‐ centre’/’edge ‐ of ‐ centre’   foodstore   development   in   small   retail   centres   will   be   accompanied   by   decimation   of   existing   centres   and   their   retail   diversity.
Indeed,   as   the   detailed   case   study   chapters   in   the   report     show,   and   evidence   from   the   ‘analogue’   control   centres   and   regional ‐ level   samples   of   centres   discussed   in   Chapter   14   extends   in   a   novel   way,   we   find   the   opposite   to   be   the   case   for   the   majority   of   the   ‘development’   case   study   centres.
In   particular,   the   analysis   in   Chapter   14   shows   that   relative   to   their   analogue   centres   and   to   regional ‐ level   averages,   the   majority   of   the   ‘development’   case   study   centres   outperform   expectations,   suggesting   robustness   to   the   competitive   impacts   of   the   new   foodstore   developments.
Moreover,   there   is   little   evidence   to   support   the   view   that   centres   experiencing   foodstore   development   have   experienced   greater   economic   health   problems   in   the   recession   of   2008 ‐ 09   than   centres   not   subject   to   the   impacts   of   foodstore   development.
Rather   the   opposite   is   frequently   the   case.
Additionally,   there   is   evidence   of   local   media   commentary   and   popular   opinion   incorrectly   ascribing   evidence   of   malaise   in   retail   centres   to   the   competitive   impacts   of   corporate   foodstore   entry   when   much   of   any   deterioration   observed   is   more   appropriately   attributable   to   the   onset   and   depth   of   the   2008 ‐ 09   recession.
The   highly   polarised   debates   which   have   accompanied   the   foodstore   development   process   in   UK   market   towns   and   district   centres   have   all   too   often   become   locked   into   channels   defined   by   rather   dated   and   poorly   digested   ‘factoids’   on   what   are   claimed   to   be   the   uniformly   negative   impacts   of   the   so ‐ called   ‘supermarket   onslaught’   on   small   towns,   high   streets   and   small ‐ scale   local   retailing   as   a   result,   policy   debate   has   run   dangerously   ahead   of   the   evidence   base.
The   University   of
Southampton   study   reported   here   was   designed   to   reconnect   the   two.
In   particular,   by   providing   a   major   high ‐ quality,   up ‐ to ‐ date   body   of   research   evidence   assembled   to   rigorous   and   transparent   standards,   it   attempts   to   move   debate   on   these   topics   beyond   the   often   ill ‐ digested   and   uncritical   usage   of   the   headline   findings   of   the
DETR   (1998)   research   report   ‐  a   report   which   has   become   seriously   outdated   as   a   result   of   more   than   a   decade   of   tightening   retail   planning   regulation   and   of   retailer   responses   to   that   regulatory   tightening.
As   retail   planning   regulation   enters   the   next   era   of   policy   guidance  ‐  specifically   PPS4
the   importance   of   impact   assessment   has   once   again   been   reiterated   and   underlined.
In   that   context,   it   is   the   belief   of   the   Southampton   research   team   that   the   research   reported   here   will   be   seen   to   have   a   vital   and   lasting   role   to   play   in   re ‐ energizing   policy   debate   relating   to   foodstore   impacts   on   the   economic   health   and   sustainable   development   of   small   centres   ‐  debate   based   on   and   sustained   by   the   findings   of   first   new   large ‐ scale   study   to   have   been   conducted   for   more   than   a
decade   on   these   topics.
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