Building A Competitive Economy: Implications for Iceland Professor Michael E. Porter Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness Harvard Business School Reykjavik, Iceland October 2, 2006 This presentation draws on ideas from Professor Porter’s articles and books, in particular, The Competitive Advantage of Nations (The Free Press, 1990), “Building the Microeconomic Foundations of Competitiveness,” in The Global Competitiveness Report 2006 (World Economic Forum, 2006), “Clusters and the New Competitive Agenda for Companies and Governments” in On Competition (Harvard Business School Press, 1998), and ongoing research on clusters and competitiveness. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means - electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise - without the permission of Michael E. Porter. Further information on Professor Porter’s work and the Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness is available at www.isc.hbs.edu Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 1 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Iceland’s Long Term Economic Performance GDP per capita (PPP adjusted) in US-$ $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 Iceland: CAGR: +0.8% $15,000 Iceland: CAGR: +3.2% $10,000 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2006), authors’ calculations Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 2 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Iceland’s Economic Legacy • Geographic location • Natural resources • Small population Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 3 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter What is Competitiveness? • Competitiveness is the productivity (value per unit of input) with which a nation, region, or cluster uses its human, capital, and natural resources. Productivity sets a nation’s or region’s standard of living (wages, returns on capital, returns on natural resources) – Productivity depends both on the value of products and services (e.g. uniqueness, quality) as well as the efficiency with which they are produced. – It is not what industries a nation or region competes in that matters for prosperity, but how firms compete in those industries – Productivity in a nation or region is a reflection of what both domestic and foreign firms choose to do in that location. The location of ownership is secondary for national prosperity. – The productivity of “local” industries is of fundamental importance to competitiveness, not just that of traded industries – Devaluation and revaluation do not make a country more or less “competitive” • Nations or regions compete in offering the most productive environment for business Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 4 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Drivers of Sustainable Prosperity Prosperity Prosperity Productivity Productivity Competitiveness Innovative Innovative Capacity Capacity Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 5 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Determinants of Productivity and Productivity Growth Macroeconomic, Macroeconomic, Political, Political, Legal, Legal, and and Social Social Context Context Microeconomic Microeconomic Capabilities Capabilities Sophistication Sophistication of ofCompany Company Operations Operationsand and Strategy Strategy Quality Qualityof ofthe the Business Business Environment Environment • A sound context creates the potential for competitiveness, but is not sufficient • Competitiveness ultimately depends on improving the microeconomic capability of the economy and the sophistication of local companies and local competition Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 6 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Enhancing Competitiveness: Improving the Business Environment Context Context for for Firm Firm Strategy Strategy and and Rivalry Rivalry z Factor Factor (Input) (Input) Conditions Conditions z Presence of high quality, specialized inputs available to firms –Human resources –Capital resources –Physical infrastructure –Administrative infrastructure –Information infrastructure –Scientific and technological infrastructure –Natural resources z z z z A local context and rules that encourage investment and sustained upgrading –e.g., Intellectual property Demand Demand protection Conditions Meritocratic incentive systems Conditions across all major institutions Open and vigorous competition among locally based rivals z Sophisticated and demanding local customer(s) z Local customer needs that anticipate those elsewhere Related and Related and z Unusual local demand in Supporting Supporting specialized segments that can be Industries served nationally and globally Industries Access to capable, locally based suppliers and firms in related fields Presence of clusters instead of isolated industries • Successful economic development is a process of successive economic upgrading, in which the business environment in a nation evolves to support and encourage increasingly sophisticated ways of competing 7 Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Enhancing Competitiveness: Cluster Development Cairns (Australia), Tourism Public Public Relations Relations && Market Market Research Research Services Services Travel Travel agents agents Tour Tour operators operators Restaurants Restaurants Attractions Attractions and and Activities Activities Food Food Suppliers Suppliers e.g., e.g., theme theme parks, parks, casinos, sports casinos, sports Property Property Services Services Maintenance Maintenance Services Services Airlines, Airlines, Cruise Cruise Ships Ships Hotels Hotels Local Local retail, retail, health health care, care, and and other other services services Local Local Transportation Transportation Souvenirs, Souvenirs, Duty Duty Free Free Banks, Banks, Foreign Foreign Exchange Exchange Government Government agencies agencies Educational Educational Institutions Institutions Industry Industry Groups Groups e.g. e.g. Australian Australian Tourism Tourism Commission, Commission, Great Great Barrier Barrier Reef Reef Authority Authority e.g. e.g. James James Cook Cook University, University, Cairns Cairns College College of of TAFE TAFE e.g. e.g. Queensland Queensland Tourism Tourism Industry Industry Council Council Sources: HBS student team research (2003) - Peter Tynan, Chai McConnell, Alexandra West, Jean Hayden Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 8 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Norwegian Maritime Cluster Fisheries Fisheries and and Fishing Fishing Equipment Equipment Ship Ship owners owners Shipyards Shipyards Ship Ship brokers brokers and agents and agents Boat Boat builders builders Banking Banking and and Finance Finance Maritime Maritime Services Services Shipping Shipping Maritime Maritime Equipment Equipment Suppliers Suppliers Ship Ship equipment equipment Maritime Maritime lawyers lawyers Underwriters Underwritersand and maritime maritimeinsurance insurance Maritime Maritime authorities authorities Offshore Offshore Exploration Exploration and and Oil Oil Production Production Maritime Maritime R&D R&D Classification Classification societies societies Maritime Maritime consultants consultants Fixed Fixed platforms platforms Pipelines Pipelines Processing Processing equipment equipment Maritime Maritime education education Norway has 0.1% of the world’s population, represents 1.0% of the world’s economy, yet accounts for 10% of world seaborne transportation Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 9 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Specialization of Regional Economies Select U.S. Geographic Areas Seattle-BellevueSeattle-BellevueEverett, Everett,WA WA Aerospace AerospaceVehicles Vehicles and andDefense Defense Fishing Fishingand andFishing Fishing Products Products Analytical AnalyticalInstruments Instruments Denver, Denver,CO CO Leather Leatherand andSporting SportingGoods Goods Oil and Gas Oil and Gas Aerospace AerospaceVehicles Vehiclesand andDefense Defense Chicago Chicago Communications CommunicationsEquipment Equipment Processed ProcessedFood Food Heavy HeavyMachinery Machinery Wichita, Wichita,KS KS Aerospace AerospaceVehicles Vehiclesand and Defense Defense Heavy HeavyMachinery Machinery Oil and Oil andGas Gas Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh,PA PA Construction ConstructionMaterials Materials Metal Manufacturing Metal Manufacturing Education Educationand andKnowledge Knowledge Creation Creation San San FranciscoFranciscoOakland-San Oakland-San Jose Jose Bay Bay Area Area Communications Communications Equipment Equipment Agricultural Agricultural Products Products Information Information Technology Technology Los Los Angeles Angeles Area Area Apparel Apparel Building Building Fixtures, Fixtures, Equipment Equipment and and Services Services Entertainment Entertainment Boston Boston Analytical AnalyticalInstruments Instruments Education Educationand andKnowledge KnowledgeCreation Creation Communications Equipment Communications Equipment Raleigh-Durham, Raleigh-Durham,NC NC Communications CommunicationsEquipment Equipment Information InformationTechnology Technology Education Educationand and Knowledge KnowledgeCreation Creation San SanDiego Diego Leather Leatherand andSporting SportingGoods Goods Power PowerGeneration Generation Education Educationand andKnowledge Knowledge Creation Creation Houston Houston Heavy HeavyConstruction ConstructionServices Services Oil and Oil andGas Gas Aerospace AerospaceVehicles Vehiclesand andDefense Defense Atlanta, Atlanta,GA GA Construction ConstructionMaterials Materials Transportation Transportationand andLogistics Logistics Business Services Business Services Note: Clusters listed are the three highest ranking clusters in terms of share of national employment Source: Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 10 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter The Composition of Regional Economies United States, 2004 Traded Traded Local Local Natural Natural Resource -Driven Resource-Driven 29.3% 29.3% 0.7% 0.7% 70.0% 70.0% 2.4% 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% --1.2% 1.2% $49,367 $49,367 137.2% 137.2% 4.2% 4.2% $30,416 $30,416 84.5 84.5 3.4% 3.4% $35,815 $35,815 99.5 99.5 2.1% 2.1% 144.1 144.1 79.3 79.3 140.1 140.1 Patents per 10,000 Employees 23.0 23.0 0.4 0.4 3.3 3.3 Number of SIC Industries 590 590 241 241 48 48 Share of Employment Employment Growth Rate, 1990 to 2004 Average Wage Relative Wage Wage Growth Relative Productivity Note: 2004 data, except relative productivity which uses 1997 data. Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, Cluster Mapping Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 11 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Composition of the Traded Economy Stockholm (Sweden) Cluster Portfolio Share in National Cluster Employment, 2003 Change in Stockholm’s overall share of National Cluster Employment: -0.5% 60% Financial Services Biopharmaceuticals 50% Business Services Communication Equipment Publishing & Printing Tourism 40% Information Technology Distribution Services Transportation & Logistics 30% Education & Knowledge Creation 20% Stockholm Share of National Cluster Employment, 2003: 22.9% Analytical Instruments Heavy Construction Services 10% 0% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% Change of Share in National Cluster Employment, 1995-2003 Note: Bubble size is proportional to employment levels Source: Statistics Sweden (2005), author’s calculations Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 12 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Determinants of Regional Prosperity Cluster Strength and Wage Levels, U.S. Regions Average Regional Wage, 2001 $55,000 Bay Area, CA New York, NY $45,000 Boston, MA $35,000 $25,000 y = 96.736x + 16218 R2 = 0.377 $15,000 50 100 150 200 250 300 Share of Traded Employment in Strong Clusters (LQ > .8), Broad Cluster, 2001 Source: County Business Patterns; Michael E. Porter, The Economic Performance of Regions”, Regional Studies, Vol. 37, 2003 Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 13 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Related Clusters in the U.S. Economy Schematic Representation Jewelry & Precious Metals Apparel Textiles Footwear Leather and Related Products Plastics Chemical Products Financial Services Sporting and Recreation Goods Tobacco Fishing & Fishing Products Heavy Construction Services Transportation and Logistics Processed Food Communications Equipment Furniture Building Fixtures, Equipment and Services Prefabricated Enclosures Medical Devices Analytical Aerospace InformationInstruments Vehicles & Defense Tech. Agricultural Products Construction Materials Oil and Gas Pharmaceutical Publishing Education and and Printing Knowledge Creation Forest Products Lightning & Electrical Equipment Hospitality and Tourism Power Generation Aerospace Engines Automotive Metal Manufacturing Production Technology Heavy Machinery Entertainment Distribution Services Business Services Motor Driven Products Note: Clusters with overlapping borders or identical shading have at least 20% overlap (by number of industries) in both directions Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 14 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Cluster Specialization Leading Footwear Clusters Romania • Production subsidiaries of Italian companies • Focus on lower to medium price range Portugal • Production • Focus on shortproduction runs in the medium price range United States • Design and marketing • Focus on specific market segments like sport and recreational shoes and boots • Manufacturing only in selected lines such as hand-sewn casual shoes and boots Italy • Design, marketing, and production of premium shoes • Export widely to the world market Brazil • Low to medium quality finished shoes, inputs, leather tanning • Shift toward higher quality products in response to Chinese price competition China • OEM Production • Focus on low cost segment mainly for the US market Vietnam/Indonesia • OEM Production • Focus on the low cost segment mainly for the European market Source: Research by HBS student teams in 2002 – Van Thi Huynh, Evan Lee, Kevin Newman, Nils Ole Oermann Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 15 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter The Process of Economic Development Shifting Roles and Responsibilities Old Old Model Model New New Model Model •• Government Government drives drives economic economic development development through through policy policy decisions decisions and and incentives incentives •• Economic Economic development development is is aa collaborative collaborative process process involving involving government government at at multiple multiple levels, levels, companies, companies, teaching teaching and and research research institutions, institutions, and and institutions institutions for for collaboration collaboration • Competitiveness must become a bottom-up process in which many individuals, companies, clusters, and institutions take responsibility • Every region and cluster can take steps to enhance competitiveness Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 16 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Influences on Competitiveness Multiple Geographic Levels World Economy Broad Economic Areas Groups of Neighboring Nations Nations States, Provinces Cluster Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 17 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Cross-National Collaboration of Cluster Initiatives SWEDEN SWEDEN Biotech Biotech Umeå Umeå Uppsala Uppsala BIO BIO Biomedical Biomedical Development, Development, West West Sweden Sweden Livets Livets Nya Nya Verktyg Verktyg Healthcare Healthcare Technology Technology Alliance Alliance BioMedley BioMedley FINLAND FINLAND Centre Centre of of Expertise, Expertise, Gene Gene Technology Technology and and Molecular Molecular Biology Biology FIVDIC, FIVDIC, In In Vitro Vitro Diagnostics Diagnostics Industry Industry Cluster Cluster Culminatum, Culminatum, Medical Medical &Welfare &Welfare Technologies Technologies Technology Technology Centre Centre Teknia Teknia Ltd Ltd NORWAY NORWAY BIOINN BIOINN BCNorth BCNorth ESTONIA ESTONIA Estonian Estonian Biotechnology Biotechnology Association Association Tartu Tartu Biotech Biotech Cluster Cluster DENMARK DENMARK bioTEAMsouth bioTEAMsouth BioMedico BioMedico Forum Forum CROSS-BORDER CROSS-BORDER EFFORTS EFFORTS ScanBalt ScanBalt Medicon Medicon Valley Valley Academy Academy MedCoast MedCoast Scandinavia Scandinavia NORTHERN NORTHERN GERMANY GERMANY Life Life Sciences Sciences SH SH & & HH HH BioCon BioCon Valley Valley medRegio medRegio Luebeck Luebeck Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 18 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Building A Competitive Economy: Implications for Iceland • Principles of Competitiveness • Iceland’s Competitive Position • Strategic Issues for Iceland’s Future Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 19 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Comparative Economic Performance Selected Countries $45,000 $40,000 $35,000 $30,000 GDP per capita (PPP $25,000 adjusted) in US-$, 2005 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 U.S. Norway Ireland Denmark ICELAND Switzerland Austria NL Sweden France Finland Japan Spain Germany Italy New Zealand Australia, Greece Canada, Slovenia S Korea U.K. Czech Rep. Portugal Hungary Slovakia Poland Lithuania Mexico Estonia Latvia Turkey China $5,000 India $0 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% Compound annual growth rate of real GDP per capita, 1998-2005 Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2006), authors’ calculations Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 20 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Decomposing Created Prosperity Prosperity Prosperity Domestic Domestic Purchasing Purchasing Power Power • Consumption taxes • Level of local market competition • Efficiency of local industries Income Income Labor Labor Productivity Productivity Labor Labor Utilization Utilization • Skills • Capital stock • TFP Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK • • • • 21 Working hours Unemployment Participation rate Population age profile Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter In d Ch ia So R ina ut u s h si Sl Ko a ov a k B rea Re raz p u il b La lic tv C ia Hu h i n le Es gar y Li ton t h ia ua M nia Cz e ec P xic h ol o Re an pu d Ta blic Sl iwa ov n G e nia r Po e ec Ho rtu e ng g Ko Sp a l ng ain SA Un R ite d Ita St ly a Ne Ca te s w na Ze da Au ala n Si stra d n Lu g lia xe ap m ore bo Ire urg l Au an d s Ne Be tria th lgiu er m G lan er d s Un m ite F an d ra y Ki n ng ce d Fi om nl Sw an d De ed e nm n Ic ark el a Ja nd p Sw No an itz rwa er y la nd Domestic Purchasing Power Purchasing Power Factor, 2005 Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK Normalized Purchasing Power Across Countries 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Source: IMF (2006), authors’ calculations 22 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Productivity versus Working Hours Selected Countries Real GDP per Hour Worked, PPP adjusted, 2005 70 Norway 60 France 50 40 Ireland Belgium United States Germany NL Sweden Denmark Italy UK Finland Canada Australia Switzerland Spain 30 Slovenia Czech Republic Estonia Lithuania Latvia Portugal Slovakia Poland 10 0 500 Japan New Zealand Hungary 20 ICELAND Mexico 600 700 800 900 1000 S Korea Russia 1100 1200 Hours worked per Capita, 2005 Source: Groningen Growth and Development Centre and The Conference Board (2006), authors’ calculations Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 23 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Iceland’s Export Performance World Export Market Shares World Export Share (%) 0.08% 0.07% 0.06% 0.05% Goods Services Total 0.04% 0.03% 0.02% 0.01% 0.00% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Source: WTO (2006) Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 24 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Iceland Cluster Export Portfolio, 1997-2003 2.45% 0.30% Change In Iceland’s Overall World Export Share: +0.003% Fishing and Fishing Products Iceland’s world export market share, 2003 2.40% 0.25% 0.20% Transportation and Logistics 0.15% Metal Mining and Manufacturing 0.10% Agricultural Products Sporting, Recreational and Children's Goods Footwear Hospitality and Tourism 0.05% Iceland’s Average World Export Share: 0.044% Communications Services 0.00% -0.20% -0.15% Business Services Marine Equipment -0.10% Leather and Related Products -0.05% Medical Devices Biopharmaceuticals Processed Food Production Technology 0.00% Change in Iceland’s world export market share, 1997 – 2003 Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School; 25 Richard Bryden, Project Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database and the IMF BOP statistics. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFTDirector. 09-14-06 CK 0.05% 0.10% Exports of = $250million Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Iceland Top 50 Goods Export Industries, 2003 World Export Share Change in Share, 1997-2003 Export Value (in $1,000) Industry Cluster 1 Fish, fresh, chilled, or frozen Fishing and Fishing Products 3.30% -2.00% $781,531 2 Aluminum and aluminum alloys, unwrought Metal Mining and Manufacturing 1.94% 0.67% $446,594 3 Fish, dried, salted, or smoked Fishing and Fishing Products 11.23% 1.25% $303,741 4 Miscellaneous prepared or preserved fish, crustaceans and the like Fishing and Fishing Products 1.49% 1.06% $164,554 5 Flours, meals of meat, fish or aquatic invertebrates for animal feeds Agricultural Products 6.57% 2.43% $155,568 6 Pig iron, spiegeleisen, sponge iron or steel granules Metal Mining and Manufacturing 0.74% 0.04% $78,541 7 Animal oils and fats Agricultural Products 3.67% 1.81% $74,261 8 Miscellaneous medicaments Biopharmaceuticals 0.05% 0.05% $66,754 9 Artificial aids, disabled Medical Devices 0.19% 0.12% $31,083 10 Weighing machinery, weights, and parts Production Technology 1.60% 1.20% $30,363 11 Crustaceans, mollusks, and aquatic invertebrates Fishing and Fishing Products 0.18% -1.24% $27,292 12 Ships, boats and other vessels Marine Equipment 0.05% 0.01% $20,165 13 Other food-processing machinery and parts Processed Food 0.26% 0.20% $17,063 14 Other animal materials Agricultural Products 0.38% 0.31% $13,223 15 Twine, cordage, rope and cables Textiles 0.74% 0.52% $12,691 16 Electro-medical equipment Medical Devices 0.12% 0.12% $11,476 17 Other meat, meat offal Agricultural Products 0.04% 0.01% $10,086 18 Activated natural minerals Chemical Products 2.53% 2.53% $8,429 19 Fur skins, tanned or dressed Leather and Related Products 0.80% -0.61% $8,258 20 Other plastic containers Plastics 0.05% 0.01% $7,758 21 Petroleum bitumen, coke, bituminous mixtures Oil and Gas Products 0.11% 0.05% $4,749 22 Fur skins, raw Leather and Related Products 0.34% -0.03% $4,639 23 Other ferrous waste and scrap Metal Mining and Manufacturing 0.05% 0.05% $4,530 24 Live animals Agricultural Products 0.04% 0.01% $4,310 25 Containers, cartons, bags and cases of paper, paperboard Processed Food 0.04% 0.02% $4,200 Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School; 26 Richard Bryden, Project Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database and the IMF BOP statistics. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFTDirector. 09-14-06 CK Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Iceland Top 50 Goods Export Industries, 2003 (continued) World Export Share Change in Share, 1997-2003 Export Value (in $1,000) Industry Cluster 26 Other non-ferrous metal waste Metal Mining and Manufacturing 0.04% 0.02% $3,282 27 Miscellaneous articles of iron or steel Metal Mining and Manufacturing 0.01% -0.01% $2,653 28 Other plastics in primary forms Plastics 0.01% 0.01% $2,630 29 Prepared additives for cements, mortars or concretes Chemical Products 0.51% 0.32% $2,400 30 Miscellaneous tables, kitchen or other household articles Furniture 0.04% -0.14% $2,292 31 Seaweeds and other algae Fishing and Fishing Products 0.54% 0.54% $1,924 32 Self-propelled mechanical shovel, excavators and loaders Heavy Machinery 0.01% 0.01% $1,809 33 Wool, other animal hair Textiles 0.04% 0.02% $1,752 34 Miscellaneous mineral insulating products Chemical Products 0.10% -0.02% $1,739 35 Miscellaneous natural abrasives Production Technology 0.43% 0.13% $1,638 36 Printed books, maps, globes Publishing and Printing 0.01% 0.01% $1,617 37 Stamps for philately Jewelry, Precious Metals and Collectibles 0.55% -0.14% $1,387 38 Electronic microcircuits Information Technology 0.00% 0.00% $1,342 39 Miscellaneous prepared cereal grains Processed Food 0.04% 0.04% $1,305 40 Miscellaneous goods vehicles Automotive 0.00% 0.00% $1,234 41 Compasses, surveying instruments Analytical Instruments 0.01% 0.01% $1,070 42 Other chemical products and preparations Chemical Products 0.01% 0.01% $1,064 43 Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats, knitted Apparel 0.00% -0.02% $1,062 44 Yarn of wool or animal hair Textiles 0.04% -0.01% $1,043 45 Miscellaneous non-alcohol beverage Processed Food 0.01% -0.11% $934 46 Other plastic articles Plastics 0.00% 0.00% $909 47 Sauce, seasoning, condiment Processed Food 0.02% 0.02% $863 48 Miscellaneous crude minerals Chemical Products 0.05% -0.45% $838 49 Petroleum Oils Oil and Gas Products 0.00% 0.00% $835 50 Commercial refrigerating equipment and parts Motor Driven Products 0.01% 0.01% $833 Top 50 Industries as % of Iceland’s total goods exports: 98.7%% Source: Prof. Michael E. Porter, International Cluster Competitiveness Project, Institute for Strategy and Competitiveness, Harvard Business School; 27 Richard Bryden, Project Underlying data drawn from the UN Commodity Trade Statistics Database and the IMF BOP statistics. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFTDirector. 09-14-06 CK Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Inbound Foreign Direct Investment Stock of Foreign Direct Investment, in % of GDP, 2004 Selected Countries 90% Estonia 80% 70% Hungary 60% Malaysia UK 40% Thailand Canada 30% 10% Kazakhstan Czech Republic 50% 20% Chile Australia Georgia Lithuania South Africa Poland Brazil Russia Colombia Ukraine US China ICELAND India Japan 0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Inflows of Foreign Direct Investment, in % of Domestic Capital Formation, 2002 - 2004 Source: UNCTAD (2006), author’s analysis. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 28 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Capital Investment Intensity Selected Countries Gross Investment in % of GDP, 2005 31% S Korea 29% ICELAND Estonia India Latvia Ireland 27% Australia 25% 23% 21% New Zealand Japan Singapore Denmark Taiwan Brazil 19% Poland 17% 15% -4% Lithuania Chile Canada Russia Sweden Germany -2% EU-25 Norway Finland US 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% Growth Rate of Real Gross Investment, CAGR, 2000 - 2005 Source: EIU (2006), author’s analysis. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 29 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Patenting Intensity: 1996 – 2005 U.S. Patents per 1000 Capita Selected Countries 350 United States Japan Taiwan Finland Israel Switzerland 300 250 Sweden Germany S Korea Canada Singapore 200 Iceland Denmark Norway Estonia 150 100 Russia Lithuania Latvia Poland 50 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Brazil India China Source: USPTO (2006), author’s analysis. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 30 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter U.S. Patents by Iceland-based Institutions Patentor Number of patents, 2000-04 CONEXANT SYSTEMS, INC. OSSUR HF MAREL H.F. DECODE GENETICS EHF. FLAGA HF STYLE - R.M. MAGNUSSON ARTLITE LIMITED PROKARIA LTD. INTEL CORPORATION TELEFONAKTIEBOLAGET LM ERICSSON TEXAS INSTRUMENTS, INCORPORATED 3COM CORPORATION PHARMACIA & UPJOHN COMPANY PC-TEL, INC. NORSK HYDRO ASA Twelve additional institutions with 1 patent 22 7 6 5 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Source: USPTO (2006), author’s analysis. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 31 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Iceland’s Competitive Position Overview Economic performance • Strong prosperity growth has turned Iceland into one of the world’s most prosperous economies • High labor participation in the economy together with solid productivity performance has driven prosperity • High local prices reduce the effective standard of living Trade, Investment, and Innovation • Stable export position • Foreign direct investment has been moderate, but the ALCOA investment will push up the numbers • Domestic investment is very high for the country’s stage of development • Patenting rates, measured by U.S. patents, are rising, against the global trend Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 32 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Business Competitiveness Index, 2006 Note: Constant sample of countries Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK Top Top 25 25 Country Change 11 22 33 44 55 66 77 88 99 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 14 15 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 22 22 23 23 24 24 25 25 United States Germany Finland Switzerland Denmark Netherlands Sweden United Kingdom Japan Hong Kong SAR Singapore Austria ICELAND Norway Canada France Belgium Australia Israel Malaysia Taiwan Ireland New Zealand Estonia Korea, Rep. 33 0 0 0 +4 -1 +1 +4 -3 0 +7 -5 0 +3 +5 -1 -6 +1 -5 +3 +3 -6 -1 -3 +3 -1 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Business Competitiveness Index, 2006 2005 GDP per Capita (Purchasing Power Adjusted) 45,000 Relationship with GDP Per Capita Norway United States 40,000 ICELAND 35,000 Ireland Qatar 30,000 UAE Spain Italy 25,000 Australia Taiwan New Zealand Greece Cyprus Bahrain 20,000 15,000 Canada Israel S Korea South Africa Chile Turkey Thailand China 5,000 Switzerland Finland Germany Sweden Singapore Estonia Trinidad & Tobago Argentina 10,000 Slovenia Denmark Jordan Malaysia Brazil Indonesia Jamaica India 0 Low Business Competitiveness Index High Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2006 Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 34 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Competitiveness and Wages Hourly Wage in Manufacturing, 2004 $40 $35 Netherlands Finland line n Switzerland o Austria ssi e r Sweden g Re ICELAND France UK $30 $25 Australia Ireland Italy Japan United States Canada $20 Spain $15 Greece Cyprus $10 $5 Denmark Germany Belgium Norway Korea Israel Slovenia Portugal Hungary Slovakia Czech Republic Estonia Mexico Lithuania Latvia Brazil Romania New Zealand Malta Poland Bulgaria $0 Low Sri Lanka Singapore Taiwan Hong Kong Business Competitiveness Index 2004 High Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2006, Eurostat, and Bureau of Labor Statistics Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 35 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Factor Factor (Input) (Input) Conditions Conditions Factor (Input) Conditions Iceland’s Relative Position 2006 Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more ranks since 2001 Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more ranks since 2001 Telephone/fax infrastructure quality 1 Quality of math and science education 32 Quality of electricity supply 1 Quality of scientific research institutions 31 Efficiency of legal framework 2 University/industry research collaboration 19 Quality of public schools 5 Air transport infrastructure quality 16 Reliability of police services 8 Local equity market access 15 Ease of access to loans 8 Availability of scientists and engineers 15 Financial market sophistication 14 Judicial independence 10 Port infrastructure quality 13 Quality of management schools 11 Venture capital availability 10 Overall infrastructure quality 10 Note: Rank versus 121 countries; overall, Iceland ranks 3rd in 2005 PPP adjusted GDP per capita and 13th in Business Competitiveness Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 36 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Doing Business 2006 Ranking Iceland Category Rank Registering Property Enforcing Contracts OVERALL Closing a Business Getting Credit Paying Taxes Starting a Business Trading Across Borders Dealing with Licenses Employing Workers Protecting Investors 8 8 12 13 13 13 16 18 30 42 83 Note: Iceland’s overall Doing Business rank is 12 out of 175 countries. Source: World Bank – Doing Business (2007), author’s analysis. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 37 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Effectiveness of Public Spending Selected Countries Positive In di a La tv ia C hi na Ja pa n Li th ua ni a Po la nd R us si a Br az il Ic el an d Fi nl an d D en m ar k N or wa y G er m an y C U hi ni le te d St at es Es to ni Sw a ed en Negative Note: Number refers to rank among 124 countries Source: Global Competitiveness Report (2006), author’s analysis. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 38 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Index of Economic Freedom 1996 - 2005 Free Hong Kong Singapore Ireland Iceland UK Estonia Denmark United States Canada Finland Chile Switzerland Germany Sweden Lithuania Japan Norway Spain Slovakia Taiwan Slovenia 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Latvia Poland Source: Index of Economic Freedom (2006), author’s analysis. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 39 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Context Contextfor for Firm Strategy Firm Strategy and andRivalry Rivalry Context for Strategy and Rivalry Iceland’s Relative Position 2006 Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more ranks since 2001 Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more ranks since 2001 Low costs of corruption 1 Prevalence of trade barriers 54 Efficacy of corporate boards 5 Decentralization of corporate activity 49 Cooperation in labor-employer relations 6 Intensity of local competition 18 Decentralization of economic policymaking 6 Effectiveness of antitrust policy 13 Intellectual property protection Favoritism in decisions of government officials 10 9 Note: Rank versus 121 countries; overall, Iceland ranks 3rd in 2005 PPP adjusted GDP per capita and 13th in Business Competitiveness Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 40 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Incentive Effect of Taxation Selected Countries Positive H on g Ko Ic ng Si el a ng nd ap o Ire re la U Es nd ni te ton d St ia at es In U d ni te Ta ia d i Ki wa ng n do m C hi l La e t N via o G rwa er y m a C ny an a M da e Li xico Ko thu r e an a, i a R e Po p. la Fi nd nl a R nd us Sw sia e D de en n m ar k Br az il Negative Source: Global Competitiveness Report (2006), author’s analysis. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 41 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Related Relatedand and Supporting Supporting Industries Industries Related and Supporting Industries Iceland’s Relative Position 2006 Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more ranks since 2001 Local availability of process machinery 44 Local supplier quantity 31 Local supplier quality 23 Local availability of specialized research and training services 20 Note: Rank versus 121 countries; overall, Iceland ranks 3rd in 2005 PPP adjusted GDP per capita and 13th in Business Competitiveness Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 42 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Demand Demand Conditions Conditions Demand Conditions Iceland’s Relative Position 2006 Competitive Advantages Relative to GDP per Capita Competitive Disadvantages Relative to GDP per Capita Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more ranks since 2001 Presence of demanding regulatory standards Country Ranking, Arrows indicate a change of 5 or more ranks since 2001 9 Government procurement advanced technology products 58 Buyer sophistication 27 Laws relating to ICT 16 Stringency of environmental regulations 15 Note: Rank versus 121 countries; overall, Iceland ranks 3rd in 2005 PPP adjusted GDP per capita and 13th in Business Competitiveness Source: Global Competitiveness Report 2006-2007. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 43 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Outbound Foreign Direct Investments Selected Countries 120% Stock of Foreign Direct Investment Abroad, in % of Domestic GDP 100% Switzerland Singapore Netherlands 80% Belgium UK Sweden Finland 60% Denmark European Union ICELAND Norway 40% World 20% 0% 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 Source: UNCTAD (2006), author’s analysis. Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 44 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Outbound Foreign Direct Investments • A number of Icelandic groups have recently made major acquisitions in the UK and the Nordic countries, concentrating on finance, retail, and food products enabled by the availability of investment capital after the opening of the Icelandic economy • If Icelandic companies can leverage experiences made on the competitive domestic markets, they are in a strong position to succeed abroad • The positions on foreign markets can be a platform to further upgrade domestic operations, through the adoption of new practices and the use of new linkages with foreign clusters and markets Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 45 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Drivers of Iceland’s Competitiveness Overview • Overall strong context conditions provide opportunities • Wages are relatively high after recent growth ahead of competitiveness improvements, a sign of the overheating economy • Iceland’s prosperity is ahead of its competitiveness, supported by a strong context and clear cluster-focus • Improving microeconomic fundamentals – Key strengths in infrastructure, basic skills, administrative capacity, and openness to competition – Key weaknesses in the innovation environment, depth of clusters, and demand conditions • Iceland has developed a focused portfolio of traded clusters Established • • • Emerging Fishing products Energy-intensive metal production • • • • Financial services Life Sciences Specialty food Specialty apparel Icelandic companies are internationalizing Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 46 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Strategic Issues for Iceland • Continue to upgrade the business environment • Strengthen the capacity for innovation • Deepen clusters and foster related cluster development • Address macroeconomic volatility • Coalesce a national economic strategy Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 47 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter National Innovative Capacity Framework Common Common Innovation Innovation Infrastructure Infrastructure Cluster-Specific Cluster-Specific Conditions Conditions e.g., e.g., funding funding for for science science and and technology, protection technology, protection of of intellectual intellectual property, property, quality quality of of research research universities universities e.g., e.g., presence presence of of specialized specialized research research facilities facilities Quality Quality of of Linkages Linkages e.g., e.g., university-company university-company collaboration collaboration Company Company Innovation Innovation Orientation Orientation e.g., e.g., company company strategies strategies based based on on innovation innovation Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 48 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Iceland’s Innovative Capacity • A clear science, technology, and innovation agenda is essential to overcome the challenges of the country’s small size • Leverage unique national conditions (homogeneity of population’s genepool, geothermal energy, climate) • Focus innovative investments around clusters • Create linkages into innovation networks in neighboring regions (US, Baltic Sea Region) Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 49 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Strategic Issues for Iceland • Continue to upgrade the business environment • Strengthen the capacity for innovation • Deepen clusters and foster related cluster development • Address macroeconomic volatility • Coalesce a national economic strategy Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 50 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Cluster Development in Massachusetts Tertiary Hospital Services Health Health Networking Medical Information Processing Information Information Technology Technology Telecommunications Medical Devices Medical Software High Capacity Computers Biopharmaceuticals Medical Outcomes Measurement Software Universities Medical Research Consulting Research Organization Think Tanks Knowledge Knowledge Creation Creation Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 51 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter The Evolution of Regional Economies San Diego Hospitality and Tourism Climate Climate and and Geography Geography Sporting and Leather Goods Transportation and Logistics Power Generation Communications Equipment Aerospace Vehicles and Defense U.S. U.S. Military Military Information Technology Analytical Instruments Education and Knowledge Creation Medical Devices Bioscience Bioscience Research Research Centers Centers 1910 Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 1930 1950 Biotech / Pharmaceuticals 1970 52 1990 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Cluster-Based Economic Policies Three Key Dimensions Develop Clusters • Guide Existing Economic Policies • Aims to increase the positive economic effects of clusters • Aims to increase the efficiency of existing economic policies • Based on the hypothesis that cluster development can be supported • Based on the hypothesis that impact of policies can be strengthened if clusters are available as multipliers Organize Public-Private Policy Dialogue • Aims to improve the efficiency of publicprivate co-operation in economic policy design and implementation • Based on the hypothesis, that discussions on the cluster-level can be more issue-driven and less politically loaded While the three dimensions often overlap in practice, it is important for clusterbased policies to be based on a clear understanding of their specific aims Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 53 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Structuring Cluster Initiatives • Activities need to be based on a consistent conceptual framework of the drivers of the cluster’s performance, shared across the cluster • A cluster strategy needs to build on the unique circumstances of Iceland’s clusters rather than copying successful clusters based elsewhere • Cluster development requires an enduring organizational framework with sufficient resources for at least 3-5 years – Eventually institutionalized in the private sector • Data creation and analysis needs to be a central focus in developing the cluster action agenda and measuring progress Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 54 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Cluster Development in Iceland • Iceland has launched a number of regional competitiveness efforts around the mobilization of clusters • For these efforts to reach full effect, it is critical to: – Consider their nature as local or traded clusters – Get clarity on whether network building, economic growth, or higher efficiency of policy is the overriding objective – Develop an understanding of each cluster’s strategic positioning – Institutionalize impact control • An overarching cluster portfolio strategy should leverage linkages between clusters in the traded sector – Increase resilience of cluster portfolio to external shocks – Leverage existing strengths Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 55 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Strategic Issues for Iceland • Continue to upgrade the business environment • Strengthen the capacity for innovation • Deepen clusters and foster related cluster development • Address macroeconomic volatility • Coalesce a national economic strategy Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 56 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Macroeconomic Context and Competitiveness Stability and confidence support investment and upgrading Macro reform alone can Create opportunity Required to achieve lead to short for productivity productivity term capital Micro reform inflows is needed Microeconomic Macroeconomic and to raise Macroeconomic Microeconomic growth the level of reform reform reform reform spurts sustainable that prosperity ultimately are not Productivity growth allows economic sustainable growth without inflation, making macroeconomic stability easier to achieve Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 57 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Icelandic Macroeconomic Context • Recent exchange rate fluctuations are not a sign of weakening competitiveness • The overheating of the economy is a concern, but not a competitiveness problem HOWEVER • Volatility drives investors to demand a risk premium, leading to higher financing costs for Iceland companies and consumers • Volatility distorts company decision making, especially on longer-term investments • Efforts to manage the volatility of the economy are important • The arguments for tying the Icelandic currency to an external anchor are gaining weight Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 58 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter Strategic Issues for Iceland • Continue to upgrade the business environment • Strengthen the capacity for innovation • Deepen clusters and foster related cluster development • Address macroeconomic volatility • Coalesce a national economic strategy Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 59 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter A Changing Global Competitive Environment Driver Market reaction Implications Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK • Fewer barriers to trade and investment • Rapidly increasing stock and diffusion of knowledge • Competitiveness upgrading in many countries • Globalization of markets • Globalization of value chains • Internationalization of capital, especially portfolio investment • Increasing knowledge and skill intensity of competition • Value increasingly in the service component of activities • Productivity increasingly determines success • Competition among nations need not be zero-sum • Economic success depends on providing unique value, not just meeting best practice benchmarks 60 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter National Economic Strategy National Economic Strategy • What is a unique competitive position for the country? – What roles has it in the world and the regional economy? – What is the country’s unique value proposition as a business location? – For what range or types of businesses can the country be competitive? Achieving and Maintaining Parity with Peer Countries Developing Unique Strengths • What macroeconomic, political, legal and social improvements are necessary to maintain parity with peer countries? • What areas of the general business environment must improve to maintain parity with peer countries? • What elements of the business environment are essential to the national value proposition? • What existing and emerging clusters must be mobilized? Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 61 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter National Economic Strategy Issues for Iceland • Market niches tied to Iceland’s unique geography, skills, culture, and values • Reinforcing positions in related clusters as a growth vehicle – Ecology as an overriding theme Iceland Competitiveness DRAFT 09-14-06 CK 62 Copyright 2006 © Professor Michael E. Porter