The RenewElec Project - Exploring
Challenges and Opportunities for
Integrating Variable and Intermittent
Renewable Resources.
Presented by Paulina Jaramillo, Executive Director
Eighth Annual Carnegie Mellon Conference On The
Electricity Industry – March 13, 2012
33 States Currently Have RPS
•  Proponents of renewables argue that large
amounts of variable and intermittent power
can be easily accommodated in the
present power system.
•  Others argue that even levels as low as
10% of generation by variable and
intermittent power can cause serious
disruptions to power system operation.
At the RenewElec project,
We believe a much-­‐expanded role for variable and intermi0ent renewables is possible but only if we adopt a systems approach that considers and an8cipates the many changes in power system design and opera8on that may be needed, while doing so at an affordable price, and with acceptable levels of security and reliability.
Ongoing Research and Stochastic
Simulation Models
The Costs of Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty
Balancing Area Consolidation and Interconnection Benefits
Estimating Regulating Reserves Requirements for Increasing Wind
Deployment, without Gaussian Statistical Assumptions
The Implications of Coal and Gas Plant Ramping as a Result of Wind
Power
Integrated Solar Combined Cycles (ISCC)
Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines
Reconfiguring Distribution Systems Dynamically to Accept more
Variable Renewable Power with Low Loss.
How much can Demand Response Contribute to Buffering
Variability of Wind and Solar Power?
Regulation and Public Engagement for Enhanced Geothermal Power
to Minimize Induced Earthquakes.
Fossil Plan Mothball and Reactivation decisions with Increase Wind
Power Grid Stability Implica0ons of Large-­‐Scale Wind Power. The Role of Plug-in Vehicles in Supporting Wind Energy Integration
in a Grid-to-Vehicle Configuration and Consequent Smart Grid
Support of Changing Demand
The Expansion and Consolidation of Service Territories for Control
and Balance Areas—Legal and Regulatory Implications
Comparative Analysis of Oil and Gas and Wind Project
Decommissioning Regulations on Federal and State Land
RenewElec Project Building Blocks
Better Prediction of Variability
Novel Strategies to Reduce Variability
New Methods for Optimally Dispatching
Power Plants and Reserves
Improved Strategies for Building,
Monitoring and Controlling Transmission
Systems
Dispatching Power Plants to Changing
Power Levels without Excessive Air
Emissions
Electric and Thermal Storage
Better Understanding of Offshore Wind
Resources
Intelligent Distribution Systems and
Customer Load Control
Improved System-Wide Facilities
Expansion
Planning
New Standards for Frequency and Voltage
Control
Plug-in Electric Vehicles
New Regulatory and Rate Structures
Ongoing Research and Stochastic
Simulation Models
The Costs of Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty
Balancing Area Consolidation and Interconnection Benefits
Estimating Regulating Reserves Requirements for Increasing Wind
Deployment, without Gaussian Statistical Assumptions
The Implications of Coal and Gas Plant Ramping as a Result of Wind
Power
Integrated Solar Combined Cycles (ISCC)
Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines
Reconfiguring Distribution Systems Dynamically to Accept more
Variable Renewable Power with Low Loss.
How much can Demand Response Contribute to Buffering
Variability of Wind and Solar Power?
Regulation and Public Engagement for Enhanced Geothermal Power
to Minimize Induced Earthquakes.
Fossil Plan Mothball and Reactivation decisions with Increased Wind
Power Grid Stability Implica0ons of Large-­‐Scale Wind Power. The Role of Plug-in Vehicles in Supporting Wind Energy Integration
in a Grid-to-Vehicle Configuration and Consequent Smart Grid
Support of Changing Demand
The Expansion and Consolidation of Service Territories for Control
and Balance Areas—Legal and Regulatory Implications
Comparative Analysis of Oil and Gas and Wind Project
Decommissioning Regulations on Federal and State Land
RenewElec Project Building Blocks
Better Prediction of Variability
Novel Strategies to Reduce Variability
New Methods for Optimally Dispatching
Power Plants and Reserves
Improved Strategies for Building,
Monitoring and Controlling Transmission
Systems
Dispatching Power Plants to Changing
Power Levels without Excessive Air
Emissions
Electric and Thermal Storage
Better Understanding of Offshore Wind
Resources
Intelligent Distribution Systems and
Customer Load Control
Improved System-Wide Facilities
Expansion
Planning
New Standards for Frequency and Voltage
Control
Plug-in Electric Vehicles
New Regulatory and Rate Structures
Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to
Offshore Wind Turbines Stephen Rose,
Paulina Jaramillo,
Jay Apt,
Mitch Small,
Iris Grossmann
Rate of Hurricane Occurence λ [year-­‐1] Offshore Wind Poten8al in Atlan8c and Gulf Coasts 0.35 TX 0.30 LA 0.25 NC 0.20 0.15 SC 0.10 NY CT 0.05 NH DE PA 0.00 0 GA ME RI 25 MA VA MD 50 NJ 75 100 125 150 175 200 Offshore Wind Resource at Depth < 60 m [GW] 225 250 WT No
Rated power:
Regulation:
Hub height:
600kW
Pitch
46m
!Blades broken
!Nacelle cover
damaged
Wind Turbines are Vulnerable to
Hurricanes
2. Wind velocity
Estimation
Eva
win
Numerical Analysis
Wind
Anal
Wind Tunnel test
Mea
Win
!Urban Model
Typhoon Maemi, Okinawa, 2003
Fig. 9 Flow
(a) WT No. 3
(b) WT No. 4
(c) WT No. 5
(d) WT No. 6
Fig. 7" Damaged wind turbines at Takahara, Karimataet al (2004) The Micon’s turbines were designed with the function
that the yaw should be locked with disk-brake after cut-out
4.1" Wind speed esti
After the loss of g
was not recorded for t
Although time series
was recorded at Miy
could not be directly
load of the turbines b
area and observed
surrounding buildings
In this study, a new
wind tunnel test and
estimate the maximum
sites.
Generally, wind tu
effect of buildings.
roughness of the oc
simulation (CFD) ca
ocean and the effect
numerous grids to est
this study, first, a wi
Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years 50-­‐turbine wind farm 1
0.95
Cumulative Probability
0.9
0.85
GalvestonCounty,
County,TX
TX
Galveston
DareCounty,
County,NC
NC
Dare
Atlantic
County,NJ
NJ
Not yCounty,
awing Atlantic
Dukes
County,MA
MA
Dukes
County,
Yawing 0.8
0.75
0.7
Not yawing Yawing 0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0
55
10
10
15
20
25
30
35
15
20
25
30
35
Turbine
Towers
Buckled
in
20
Years
Turbine Towers Buckled in 20 Years
40
40
45
45
50
50
Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years 50-­‐turbine wind farm 1
0.95
Cumulative Probability
0.9
0.85
GalvestonCounty,
County,TX
TX
Galveston
DareCounty,
County,NC
NC
Dare
Atlantic
County,NJ
NJ
Not yCounty,
awing Atlantic
Dukes
County,MA
MA
Dukes
County,
Yawing 0.8
0.75
0.7
Not yawing Yawing 0.65
0.6
0.55
0.5
0
55
10
10
15
20
25
30
35
15
20
25
30
35
Turbine
Towers
Buckled
in
20
Years
Turbine Towers Buckled in 20 Years
40
40
45
45
50
50
Probability That At Least 10% Of Turbines In A
Wind Farm Will Be Destroyed By Hurricanes In 20
Years - No Yaw Scenario
Engineering Changes Can Reduce
Risk
•  Backup power for yaw system
–  Survival depends on active system
–  Wind vane must survive
–  Turbine must yaw quickly
•  Stronger towers and blades
–  More steel in tower
–  More fiberglass in blades
–  20 – 30% cost increase
Ongoing Research and Stochastic
Simulation Models
The Costs of Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty
Balancing Area Consolidation and Interconnection Benefits
Estimating Regulating Reserves Requirements for Increasing Wind
Deployment, without Gaussian Statistical Assumptions
The Implications of Coal and Gas Plant Ramping as a Result of Wind
Power
Integrated Solar Combined Cycles (ISCC)
Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines
Reconfiguring Distribution Systems Dynamically to Accept more
Variable Renewable Power with Low Loss.
How much can Demand Response Contribute to Buffering
Variability of Wind and Solar Power?
Regulation and Public Engagement for Enhanced Geothermal Power
to Minimize Induced Earthquakes.
Fossil Plan Mothball and Reactivation decisions with Increased Wind
Power Grid Stability Implica0ons of Large-­‐Scale Wind Power. The Role of Plug-in Vehicles in Supporting Wind Energy Integration
in a Grid-to-Vehicle Configuration and Consequent Smart Grid
Support of Changing Demand
The Expansion and Consolidation of Service Territories for Control
and Balance Areas—Legal and Regulatory Implications
Comparative Analysis of Oil and Gas and Wind Project
Decommissioning Regulations on Federal and State Land
RenewElec Project Building Blocks
Better Prediction of Variability
Novel Strategies to Reduce Variability
New Methods for Optimally Dispatching
Power Plants and Reserves
Improved Strategies for Building,
Monitoring and Controlling Transmission
Systems
Dispatching Power Plants to Changing
Power Levels without Excessive Air
Emissions
Electric and Thermal Storage
Better Understanding of Offshore Wind
Resources
Intelligent Distribution Systems and
Customer Load Control
Improved System-Wide Facilities
Expansion
Planning
New Standards for Frequency and Voltage
Control
Plug-in Electric Vehicles
New Regulatory and Rate Structures
The Effect Of Long-distance
Interconnection On Wind Power
Variability
Emily Fertig, Warren Katzenstein, Jay Apt, Paulina Jaramillo
Connecting wind plants within a region reduces high-frequency
fluctuations compared to a single wind plant.
4
10
Power Spectral Density
3
10
2
10
1
10
0
10
Value expected for a single turbine
Aggregate wind output of all four regions
ERCOT aggregate wind output
−6
10
−5
10
Frequency (Hz)
−4
10
This reduces the need for quick-ramping resources such as batteries
and peaker gas plants. Connecting all four regions provides negligible
additional benefit compared with a single region (note log scale).
Interconnection substantially increases the percentage of firm wind capacity
1
BPA
CAISO
MISO
ERCOT
Sum of all four
0.9
Normalized power
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
20
40
60
Hours in 2009 (percent)
80
100
90% 12% of aggregate wind capacity of all four regions is available 90% of the
time; only 1% to 6% of wind capacity of a single region is available 90% of
the time
Interconnection also reduces the per-unit standard deviation
Next Step:
BenefitCost
Analysis
Ongoing Research and Stochastic
Simulation Models
The Costs of Wind Power Forecast Uncertainty
Balancing Area Consolidation and Interconnection Benefits
Estimating Regulating Reserves Requirements for Increasing Wind
Deployment, without Gaussian Statistical Assumptions
The Implications of Coal and Gas Plant Ramping as a Result of Wind
Power
Integrated Solar Combined Cycles (ISCC)
Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines
Reconfiguring Distribution Systems Dynamically to Accept more
Variable Renewable Power with Low Loss.
How much can Demand Response Contribute to Buffering
Variability of Wind and Solar Power?
Regulation and Public Engagement for Enhanced Geothermal Power
to Minimize Induced Earthquakes.
Fossil Plan Mothball and Reactivation decisions with Increased Wind
Power Grid Stability Implica0ons of Large-­‐Scale Wind Power. The Role of Plug-in Vehicles in Supporting Wind Energy Integration
in a Grid-to-Vehicle Configuration and Consequent Smart Grid
Support of Changing Demand
The Expansion and Consolidation of Service Territories for Control
and Balance Areas—Legal and Regulatory Implications
Comparative Analysis of Oil and Gas and Wind Project
Decommissioning Regulations on Federal and State Land
RenewElec Project Building Blocks
Better Prediction of Variability
Novel Strategies to Reduce Variability
New Methods for Optimally Dispatching
Power Plants and Reserves
Improved Strategies for Building,
Monitoring and Controlling Transmission
Systems
Dispatching Power Plants to Changing
Power Levels without Excessive Air
Emissions
Electric and Thermal Storage
Better Understanding of Offshore Wind
Resources
Intelligent Distribution Systems and
Customer Load Control
Improved System-Wide Facilities
Expansion
Planning
New Standards for Frequency and Voltage
Control
Plug-in Electric Vehicles
New Regulatory and Rate Structures
Impacts of Large Scale Penetration of Wind
on the Operations of Coal Power Plants
Output from 6 Texas wind turbines Output from a Texas Coal Plant Hours Days Source: (J Apt 2007) David Luke Oates, Paulina Jaramillo
Source: CEMS 2008 Model Overview
“What are the
capacities of each unit
and demand for
electricity?”
“How much power does
each unit produce every
hour?”
System
Data
UCED
Model
•  Unit capacity,
etc.
•  Hourly
Demand
•  Hourly Wind
•  Optimization
Model
•  Determine
Schedule
“How much CO2 and
NOX are produced?”
Emissions
Model
•  Many
Regression
Models
•  Determine
emissions
Emissions models capture changes in emissions rates during cycling NOX Emissions [lb/h] •  Regressions models using CEMS data •  Emissions rates vary with power level and ramp-­‐rate •  Capture emissions arising from cycling PJM Combined Cycle Unit Model uses mean emissions produced during startup and shutdown Model uses power and ramp rate as explanatory variables Sample Model Output at 10% Wind 90
Substan8al coal cycling Energy Use Plot for Aug. Energy
Use Plot for Aug. 2006 in PJM ï 10% Wind
2006 in PJM – 10% Wind Wind curtailment 80
Effec8ve wind penetra8on 7.3% Power Output [GW]
70
60
50
PJM uses a great deal of Bituminous coal 40
30
20
10
0
08/07
NUC
BIT
08/08
LIG
08/09
PC
SUB
NGCC
NGCT
08/10
08/11
Date in 2006
NGSTEAM
08/12
WND
08/13
WC
Nuclear is baseloaded Transi8on from 0.4% to 12006
0% inwPJM
ind Energy
Use Plot
for Nov.
100
Power Output
[GW]
Power Output [GW] 50
200
0.4% Wind 0
11/06 11/07 11/08 11/09 11/10 11/11 11/12
100
50
195
190
Power Output [GW]
185
10% Wind 100
175
170
165
Work is ongoing to: •  Refine UCDM •  Refine Emissions Model •  Develop Scenarios 0
11/06 11/07 11/08 11/09 11/10 11/11 11/12
NUC
180
Energy Use Plot for Jun. 2006 in PJM ï 8 GW Wind No Coal Constraints
Observa0ons •  Increase in Coal Cycling •  Wind offsets gas and coal 50
BIT
LIG
PC
SUB
NGCC
NGCT
NGSTEAM
WND
WC
Thank you for your attention
Questions?
Visit us at www.renewelec.org