How does 'big science' happen? Adventures in the
development of a large-scale climate manipulation
experiment in the tropics
Molly Cavaleri
Assistant Professor of Tree Physiology
School of Forest Resources and Environmental Science, Michigan Tech
“Make no little plans.
They have no magic to
stir men's blood and
probably themselves will
not be realized.”
Daniel Burnham, Chicago
architect (1846-1912)
•  Story of my experience
with “Big Plans”
•  How to convince people to
give you millions $$
•  ...work in progress
Talk Story
•  A bit about my background
•  Collaborations: Who?
•  Proof of idea: Why?
•  Proof of concept: How?
•  Proposal process: Persistence!
•  Getting the word out…
Talk Story
•  A bit about my background
•  Collaborations: Who?
•  Proof of idea: Why?
•  Proof of concept: How?
•  Proposal process: Persistence!
•  Getting the word out…
Overall Research Vision:
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Interactions between forest canopy structure and
function
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Cycling of carbon and water through forests at leaf scale,
whole-tree scale, and ecosystem scale
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How these patterns may change with global climate
change
Tool Box
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Tree canopy access: towers, cables, climbing, cranes
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Bottom-up measurements of forest CO2 flux and water use
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Plant respiration & Photosynthesis
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Tree sap flux
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Forest canopy physiology modeling
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Stable isotopes 13C, 2H, 18O
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Dendrochronology (tree rings)
Previous Work: Ph.D.
•  Colorado State University, Rocky Mountain Research Station US Forest
Service, La Selva Biological Station, Costa Rica
•  Advisors/collaborators: Mike Ryan, Dan Binkley, Steve Oberbauer, David
Clark, Deborah Clark
•  Measuring canopy structure & function in an old growth tropical rain
forest, primarily plant respiration and leaf shape
•  Woody respiration: Cavaleri et al.
2006 Global Climate Change
•  Foliar and ecosystem respiration:
Cavaleri et al. 2008 Plant, Cell &
Environment
•  Leaf trait patterns with height:
Cavaleri et al. 2010 Ecology
Previous Work: Post doc
•  University of Hawaii, Manoa, Institute for Pacific Islands Forestry, US
Forest Service, Hilo, HI
•  Advisors/collaborators: Lawren Sack, Becky Ostertag, Christian
Giardina, Susan Cordell
•  The impact of invasive tree species on the water cycle in Hawaii,
measured sap flux in an invasive removal experiment
•  Native vs. invasive plant water
use meta-analysis: Cavaleri &
Sack 2010 Ecology
•  Forest water use after invasive
removal: Cavaleri et al. in
review
Current work here at Tech
•  Water use of trees in soil warming
experiment and with interannual variability
in climate ~ Alex Collins
•  Patterns of leaf traits with height and time
in sugar maple ~ Adam Coble
•  Andy Burton, Brian Palik, NC Research
Station, US Forest Service, Ford Forestry
Center, Marcell Experimental Forest
Talk Story
•  A bit about my background
•  Collaborations: Who?
•  Proof of idea: Why?
•  Proof of concept: How?
•  Proposal process: Persistence!
•  Getting the word out…
How did we get started?
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Summer 2009: ESA Albuquerque
•  USFS IITF in Puerto Rico acquired some land, what to do?
•  Large-scale climate change manipulation in a tropical forest
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Winter 2009: AGU San Francisco
•  Who is going to do the work?
•  What type of experiment? No engineers!
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Fall 2010: Puerto Rico
•  Where to do it? Visit sites
•  How to do it? Meet with engineers...$$$
•  Why do to it? Proof of need... Literature review
•  How to fund? White papers, meet with funding agencies
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2011-2013: Papers and Proposals!
Who to work with?
Multiple agencies, multiple career stages
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Tana Wood - USFS IITF
Molly Cavaleri- Michigan Tech
Sasha Reed - USGS
Ariel E. Lugo - USFS IITF
Grizelle Gonzalez – USFS IITF
Skip Van Bloem - UPR Mayaguez
Eoin Brodie- Lawrence Berkeley NL
Benjamin Cook - NASA Goddard
Eric Davidson- Woods Hole
John Harte- UC Berkeley
Michael Keller- USFS IITF
Bruce Kimball- USDA Arid-Land
Alex LaFontaine-Env. Improv. Syst.
Keith Lewin- Brookhaven NL
Joe Mascaro- Stanford Univ.
Richard Norby- Oakridge NL
Alan Talhelm- Univ. Nevada
Peter Thornton- Oakridge NL
George Vourlitis- CA State Univ.
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Will Wieder- NCAR
Whendee Silver- UC Berkeley
Cory Cleveland- Univ. Montana
Devin Wixon-U. Wisc.-Milwaukee
Joe Craine-Kansas State Univ.
Ann Russell-Iowa State Univ.
Yadvinder Malhi- Oxford Univ.
Mike Ryan- USFS, Rocky Mt
Shaun Cunningham- Monash Univ.
Rosie Fisher- UCAR
Patrick Martin- Colorado State Univ
Bill Bauerle- Colorado State Univ.
Mac Post- Oakridge NL
Bill Parton- Colorado State Univ.
Maria Uriarte- Columbia Univ.
Deborah Clark- U. Missouri-St. Louis
Stefan Schnitzer-U. Wisc.-Milwaukee
Delphine Farmer- Colorado State
Who to work with?
What makes a functioning long-term collaboration
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Trust
Honesty
Accountability
Get over it, move on
Assignments!
Sasha Reed
Tana
Wood
Talk Story
•  A bit about my background
•  Collaborations: Who?
•  Proof of idea: Why?
•  Proof of concept: How?
•  Proposal process: Persistence!
•  Getting the word out…
Proof of idea: Strategic publications
•  Literature Review:
•  Wood, Cavaleri & Reed, 2012. Tropical forest carbon balance in a warmer
world. Biological Reviews
•  Meeting Proceedings:
•  Reed, Cavaleri & Wood, 2012. Tropical forests in a warming world. New
Phytologist
•  Commentary:
•  Cavaleri, Reed & Wood, In Review. Strategies for global change experiments
in tropical forests
•  Workshop Report (part of ‘writing team’):
•  2012 DOE workshop to identify research priorities for tropical ecosystems
•  Next Generation Ecosystem Experiment Tropics (NGEE Tropics)
•  Take turns first-authoring
•  Notice: NO DATA YET!!
Temperature extremes in the tropics will be greater than
previously predicted
•  Tropics will enter a ‘novel climate envelope’ within the next 100 years
•  88% tropics have already have MAT > 20 oC. Very large uncertainty surrounding
tropical forest response
Diffenbaugh & Scherrer 2011, Corlett 2012, Wood et al. 2012
Pg C/yr
Exchange more C than any biome
BUT, greatest uncertainty!
Reich 2011 Nature CC
Carbon sink/source
Canopy Respiration
Photosynthesis
Litter
ANPP
Root & Microbe
Respiration
BNPP
Wood, Cavaleri & Reed, 2012
Photosynthesis and Respiration:
Response to Temperature
Photosynthesis and Respiration:
Long-term acclimation to temperature
•  Could lead to net loss
of CO2 to the
atmosphere
Type I Acclimation
Plant respiration
•  Lower acclimation
potential
(c)
(a)
Photosynthesis
•  Tropical trees: lower
seasonal and day-to-day
T variation than
temperate
Increase in Topt
(b)
Increase in Pmax
Measurement Temp
Wood, Cavaleri & Reed, 2012
(d)
Type II Acclimation
Measurement Temp
Temperature effects on C outputs from Soil
•  Tropical soil incubation
experiments investigating
microbial response to
increased temperature
•  Tropical soil may acclimate,
cannot ignore roots
World-wide distribution of soil warming
experiments
Precipitation (mm y-1)
•  No soil warming
experiment anywhere in the
tropics!
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Latitude
Aronson & McNulty 2009
Stand-level responses, overall conclusions
•  Controversy: long-term inventory plots show different trajectories
•  Increasing growth & turnover (Phillips et al. 1998 & 2004, Baker
et al. 2004, Lewis et al. 2009, Chave et al. 2008)
•  Decreasing growth (Clark et al. 2003, Feeley et al. 2007)
•  CO2? Precipitation? Warming? Other factors??
•  Conclusions based on large-scale observational studies which
confound climatic, edaphic & biotic factors
•  Need to experimentally manipulate climate in tropical forests!
Wood, Cavaleri & Reed, 2012
Talk Story
•  A bit about my background
•  Collaborations: Who?
•  Proof of idea: Why?
•  Proof of concept: How?
•  Proposal process: Persistence!
•  Getting the word out…
HOW: What are the tough decisions?
1.  Single- or multiple-factor design?
2.  Which environmental variable(s) to manipulate?
3.  What is the most appropriate spatial scale?
4.  What is the most appropriate time scale?
5.  Way forward…
Single- or multiple-factor design?
•  Multi-factor experiments is ideal for detecting interactive
effects of multiple factors (Rustad 2008), however…
•  Tall-statured, diverse forests (100+ spp ha-1)
•  Trade-off between reps and treatments: not enough power
to detect interactions
•  Mechanistic understanding single factors, use models to
determine interactive effects of multiple factors (Luo et al.
2011)
Which environmental variable(s) to
manipulate?
Factor most likely to have imminent detrimental effects:
warming
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Novel heat regime within 20 years, new seasonal mins hotter than
current maxes (Diffenbaugh and Scherer 2011)
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Biome with highest frequency of extreme temperature events
(Anderson 2012)
•  Tropical forests may already
be near thermal thresholds
(Clark et al. 2003, Doughty and
Goulden 2008)
Which environmental variable(s) to
manipulate?
Why not: CO2, precipitation? Critically important too!
•  CO2 expected to have positive effect on biomass accrual
•  BUT: long-term growth effect of CO2 ‘fertilization’
constrained by soil nutrient availability (de Graaff et al. 2006,
Reich et al. 2006)
•  Mature trees are likely not C-limited (Körner, 2003)
•  Several large-scale precip manipulation experiments already
exist within the tropics (e.g., Nepstad et al. 2002)
•  NO warming experiment exists in tropics
What is the most appropriate spatial scale?
Both above- and belowground components are
warmed = ideal experimental design
•  Strong feedbacks between tree canopy, root, and soil function
•  Tight interplay between photosynthesis and root respiration
•  Effects of warming on C allocation patterns in trees and soil
(Wood et al. 2012, sources within)
What is the most appropriate spatial scale?
We must start somewhere: warm component parts!
•  Most biologically active
parts of the system:
leaves, roots, microbes
•  Functional trait
framework to address
high biodiversity
•  Mechanistic
understanding and
model parameterization
Burton et al. Michigan, USA
Slot & Kitajima,
Panama
What is the most appropriate spatial scale?
Representative vs. Logistically feasible
•  “Representative tropical forest ” is a misnomer
•  Tropical forests span a wide range of temperatures,
seasonality, precipitation ranges, edaphic conditions,
diversity
•  Same treatment (in this case, warming) at a network of sites
•  Most logistically easy location for permitting, customs,
electricity, infrastructure, etc.
Most appropriate temporal scale?
Long-term needed to capture acclimation
Acclimation: one of the most critical research needs for modeling
tropical forests (Booth et al. 2012)
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Tropical tree physiological response to warming and acclimation
contribute greatest uncertainty in Earth system model predictions
of global C (Huntingford et al. 2013, Smith and Dukes 2012)
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Temperate zone soil respiration increases initially, returns to prewarming rates within a few years (e.g., Melillo et al. 2002)
SOMETHING better than NOTHING; get started even if long-term
funding is uncertain!
Recommendations…
•  Manipulative experiment
•  Single factor: warming
•  Warm most important parts: microbes, roots, leaves
•  Long-term, but start somewhere
•  Start in most logistically feasible location
•  Eventually: multiple sites
Talk Story
•  A bit about my background
•  Collaborations: Who?
•  Proof of idea: Why?
•  Proof of concept: How?
•  Proposal process: Persistence!
•  Getting the word out…
A word about ‘white papers’
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Short (1-3 page) idea paper
Basic concepts, hypotheses, outline of methods
Collaborators
Concise, big ideas, minimal citations
Have several copies, visit funding agencies
•  2010, I served on an NSF panel, met with program
officers and handed off white paper
•  Learned: NSF does not fund ‘infrastructure’
•  Advised us to start smaller, pilot data!
•  Hypothesis-driven, mechanistic studies
Proposal Process… just keep at it!
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National Science Foundation (2011, 2012, 2013... Not yet)
•  Pre-proposal process (4 page >> 15 page)
•  Slim chances (competitive, funding squeeze), big reward
•  Panel review, hypothesis-driven, laser focused
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Department of Energy (2011, 2012, 2013... Not yet)
•  Slim chances, big reward (15-20 page)
•  Panel review, mission-driven
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US Forest Service: Success!
•  No panel review, short proposals and high-level decisions
•  2011: $300K to purchase lamps
•  2013: $300K to install and run experiment for 1yr and student funding
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US Geological Survey: Success!
•  Competitive grant for modeler-experimentalist workshop (Spring 2014)
•  2012: $100K for workshop and student funding
Dream vs. Reality
THE DREAM:
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~5 oC warming over 314
m2 area (10 m radius)
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54 IR heaters installed
above forest canopy (18 m
height)
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Soil Warming Rods (3-m
depth)
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First ecosystem-level forest
warming experiment
ANYWHERE
Dream vs. Reality
REALITY:
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~4 oC warming
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Three 4-m-diameter
hexagonal field plots with
six 3-phase infrared heaters
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Paired with three dummy
contol plots
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Begin installation spring
2014
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First field-scale forest
warming experiment in the
tropics!
Olga Ramos IITF GIS Laboratory
Official Forest Service Project
Many Benefits!
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On-site administration and field
technician support
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Nearby dorms, fully-equipped labs
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Better chances of continued funds
for electricity in the longer term
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Project leader: Grizelle Gonzalez
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IITF director: Ariel Lugo
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Collaborations with Luquillo
LTER and CZO
How my lab is involved…
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Involve modelers early on:
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Soil microbial/
Leaf-Scale
USGS Powell Center Working Group Grant
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INTERFACE modeler-experimentalist exchange
Grant
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Adam Coble, PhD: funded for 1 year to work with
canopy process modeler, Bill Bauerle at Colorado
State: how warming affects whole-forest C fluxes
Individual plant/
in situ soil-scale
Forest-scale
Small-scale experiments for pilot data and mechanistic
hypothesis testing
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Alida Mau, MS student: USFS funded for 2 years to
measure photosynthetic response to temperature from
towers nearby the experimental warming site
Landscape/
Biome-scale
Future work… Warming branches!
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Branch and leaf warming
experiments
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Smithsonian Tropical Research
Institute, Canopy Crane in
Panama
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Oct 2012 visit- Martijn Slot &
Kaoru Kitajima U of FL
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Mac Stennis $$ to build scaffolding above
USFS rhizotron (Lilleskov, DesRochers)
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Experiment with branch warming methods
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Collaborators from MTU: electrical
engineer Mark Sloat to help…
Talk Story
•  A bit about my background
•  Collaborations: Who?
•  Proof of idea: Why?
•  Proof of concept: How?
•  Proposal process: Persistence!
•  Getting the word out…
Getting the word out, making connections
•  Organized Oral Sessions: meet people doing the same things!
•  2011 ESA: Effects of a warming climate on tropical forests at multiple scales
•  2013 ATBC: Warming effects on tropical forests: a way forward
•  2014 ESA: Experimentally warming forests
•  Tech transfer visits
•  2012 trip to Panama to learn canopy warming techniques from Martijn Slot
•  2013 trip to B4Warmed site in Minnesota
•  Social media (Tana Wood’s domain)
•  www.facebook.com/TropicalForestWarmingExperiment
•  Twitter: @forestwarming
•  Gmail: forestwarming@gmail.com
•  Websites: www.forestwarming.com and www.tropicalforestwarming.com
•  Stay tuned… media blitz!
Thank you!
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USDA Forest Service International Institute of Tropical Forestry
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USDA Forest Service Northern Research Station
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Fundación Puertorriqueña de Conservación
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Luquillo LTER Program
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University of Puerto Rico- Rio Piedras
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University of California-Berkeley
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USGS Powell Center
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INTERFACE Student Collaborative Exchange Program
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Michigan Tech Ecosystem Science Center
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Michigan Tech Center for Water and Society