Greater Manchester Against Crime
Reducing Re-offending
In Local Communities
David Ottiwell & Emma Porter
Context
“Going Straight” (February 2005)
• Enforcement activity via the CJS isn’t
enough
• Custodial sanctions & social exclusion
(cycle of offending and re-offending)
• Contribution of local councils to reducing
re-offending
Targeted Services
•
•
•
•
Housing, including benefits
Education
Social Services
Employment including as employers in their own
right
• Community Development / Regeneration
• Leisure
• Community Safety
Complex Communities
Audit Commission – Area Profiling
GMAC Strategic Assessment
2005
• “Prioritising Offenders” Chapter
- Data relating to Prolific and Other Priority
Offenders (both GM bespoke system &
national secure extranet system – JTrack)
- Probation Service Offender Assessment
System (OASys) data
Precise Mapping of PPOs
Count by Home Policing Sub-division
Targeted PPOs
Count By Subdivision
25 +
20 to 25
15 to 20
10 to 15
5 to 10
0 to 5
Precise Mapping of PPOs
Hotspot (Density Estimate) – Home Address Postcode
Current and Previous PPO Home Locations
High intensity
Low intensity
Ward
Vulnerable Localities Index
VulnerableLocalitiesIndex
Index 200+
Index 150 - 200
Index 100 - 150
Index 50 - 100
Geodemographic Information
Top 10
Mosaic
Types
G42
F37
D24
G43
G41
F39
D26
H47
F38
H46
PPO Home
Postcodes Of This Kind In
Index
Postcodes
Greater Manchester
(PPO % divided by
(% of total PPOs in
(% total inrackets)
b
Gr Mcr %)
brackets)
176 (20.5%)
3900 (6.6%)
310
110 (12.8%)
2558 (4.3%)
295
96 (11.2%)
4596 (7.8%)
144
92 (10.7%)
3369 (5.7%)
188
63 (7.3%)
878 (1.5%)
493
47 (5.5%)
1933 (3.3%)
167
35 (4.1%)
1379 (2.3%)
174
27 (3.1%)
889 (1.5%)
209
17 (2.0%)
392 (0.7%)
298
17 (2.0%)
1052 (1.8%)
111
Probation Data: OASys
Risk Assessment
• A standardised process for the assessment of
offenders developed jointly by the National
Probation Service (NPS) and the Prison
Service
• A structured, research-based approach to
assessing an offender's likelihood of
reconviction, the criminogenic factors
associated with offending, and the risk of
harm he or she presents
OASys Data Structure
Current / Past
Offending Info
Dynamic Risk
Factors:
• Accommodation
• ETE
• Drug Use
Describing Geographically
Located Offender Populations
A) PPOs
Almost half of currently / past targeted PPOs had risk
assessment records in the Probation data:
- Nearly two thirds of PPOs had a conviction
before they were 16. A fifth of PPOs had
contact with the police before they were 13
- 85% of PPOs had serious issues with either
education, training or employment
- 49% of PPOs had accommodation problems
that were assessed as requiring intervention
?
?
Describing Geographically
Located Offender Populations
B) User-Defined Offender Groupings
•
Map all Probation Service OASys data according to the
home address of the offender being assessed, and FILTER it
(customised offender mapping)
•
Establishing the class A drug market in Greater Manchester:
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.
All class A drug users, past or present use
All current class A drug users
All current heroine & crack cocaine poly-drug users
All current or past female poly drug users
Describing Geographically
Located Offender Populations
C) The needs of individuals...
The needs of wider communities
•
Use Youth Offending Team ASSET data:
Individual offending related factors Æ Neighbourhood profiles
ASSET Assessments –
Geographic Distribution of Offender Home
Addresses
6 Priority Neighbourhoods
ASSET Risk Summary for 6 Key Neighbourhoods
ASSET Risk Assessment: Neighbourhood Profile - Percentage Assessed With Risk 2, 3 or 4
Area F
Area C
Area B
Area A
Area D
Area E
Living Arrangements
70%
Motivation to Change
Attitudes to Offending
Thinking & Behaviour
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
Family & Personal Relationships
Statutory Education
ETE
0%
Perceptions of Self and Others
Emotional & Mental Health
Physical Health
Neighbourhood
Lifestyle
Substance Use
What Next?
•
Promote the available data and analysis so far
•
Develop the analysis:
i.
More academic rigour in defining hotspots
generated from kernel density estimation – Gi*
(LISA statistics to define significantly hot areas
of interest)
Mapping that can take account of the ‘at risk’
population – particularly dual kernel density
estimates in Crimestat or elsewhere
ii.
What Next?
• Support delivery of the NW Reducing
Re-offending Action Plan, and the 8 “Action
Pathways”:
1. Accommodation
2. Employment, Learning
and Skills
3. Physical and Mental
Health
4. Drugs and Alcohol
5. Finance
6. Children, Families and
Community Support
7. Attitudes, Thinking and
Behaviour
8. Victims of Crime and the
Community
David.Ottiwell@bolton.gov.uk
Emma.Porter@gmp.police.uk
http://www.gmac.org.uk/