Climate Effects Network:
Linking Causes and Impacts of
Climate Change for Societal Benefit
and Decision Support
U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey
Image from Google Earth
The engine of the Earth’s climate system is it’s
heat budget
Climate Change: Natural vs.
Anthropogenic
Source: IPCC, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis
Past 100 Years: Alaska
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
¾
Average U.S. temperature increased 1°F over 100 years
Alaska has warmed 4°F since 1950
Higher latitudes more sensitive to climate change
Changes in the ice cover of the
globe are of great interest to
American policymakers because of
the magnitude of change of:
•
•
•
•
•
Permafrost degradation
Melting of sea ice
Rates of coastal erosion
Response of plants and animals
Increased fire, drought, floods
The
The Climate
Climate Effects
Effects Dilemma
Dilemma
™ Point data indicate major change is underway
where baseline regional data is sparse or nonexistent.
™ Where and when these changes will disrupt
ecosystem function or human activity is uncertain.
™ What adaptation or mitigation strategies will be
most effective are also uncertain.
™ To understand the changes, measuring the effects
on whole systems over time is necessary.
™ Answers are needed now in some areas, and very
soon in many.
The
The logistical
logistical issue
issue
PROBLEM:
It is not possible to assess the complex
changes, interactions, and feedbacks
caused by climate change at every specific
location where DOI or USDA-FS resource
managers need us to be.
THE NECESSARY ASSUMPTION:
Within broad ecoregions, the dominant
processes controlling ecosystem
responses to climate change are similar;
however, ecosystem condition is highly
variable.
How Do We Do this?
Multi-component –Multi scale Observations and
Research Results For Decision Support
The
TheVision
Vision––AANational
NationalClimate
ClimateEffects
EffectsNetwork
NetworkThat
That
Allows
AllowsSystematic
SystematicApplication
Applicationof
ofResearch
ResearchResults
Results
™ A truly integrated National climate effect monitoring
network capable of detecting and analyzing change at a
range of temporal and spatial scales
™ A scientific team focused on early detection and
scientific analysis in support of adaptation or mitigation
strategies
™ An information dissemination and decision support
system for cost effective, scientifically rigorous
management and policy decisions
™ The capacity for the next generation to protect and
sustain our National trust resources through early
detection of change
Delaware River Basin Example
Built on US Forest Service, USGS, and Park Service infrastructure and programs
Multi-tier Monitoring Design
Scale-appropriate monitoring linked
through common indicators
• Tier One –Intensive Areas
Increasing
temporal
resolution
¾ Relatively small number of specific sites
representing important processes
• Tier Two – Condition Sample
¾ Gradient studies: representative of specified
condition classes
• Tier Three – Extensive Inventories and
Surveys
¾ Representative regional statistical sample
• Tier Four – Remote Sensing and
Mapping
¾ Wall-to-wall coverage; stratification
Increasing
spatial
resolution
Steps Involved In
Network Implementation
• Determine specific climate effects and responses issues
• Determine the types of data needed at each Tier of the
framework
• Assess what data is already being collected by existing
programs (the “Foundation” Programs).
• Complete a gap analysis relative to each issue
• Request volunteer or funded enhancements of existing
programs to fill the gaps
• Fund new observation/research/decision support tool
development to fill the gaps
• Systematically ensure research is linked to applications for
decision support
Tier 1: Monitoring
Intensification at 3
Watersheds in the
Delaware River Basin
French Creek
Intensive Plots
Tier 2:Regional
Validation Plots
Independent validation of
estimates to test scaling
methods.
River C
Some of the Intensive Forestry Measurements Added to
Forest Inventory Plots
Litterfall collector
Foliar sampling
Soil temperature logger
Dendrometer band
Scaling strategy
FIA P2/P3 plot network
CEMRI carbon plot network
nested
within
Tier 3 –
USFS FIA and FHM
Plots measured with a 5year panel system to
characterize forests of the
Delaware River Basin.
Added 3 soil samples at 3
depths to each forested
plot, + stream survey.
Remote Sensing: Building new
tools through an integrated
ground-truthing network
AVIRIS
Airborne Visible/InfraRed
Imaging Spectrometer
The resulting 224 band layer image is known as
an “image cube”. When the data from each
band is plotted on a graph, it yields a spectrum.
Hallet, USFS
Regional relation of deposition
chemistry to soil and stream chemistry
Annual Nitrogen
deposition
Soil Calcium
Stream acid neutralizing
capacity (ANC)
Leveled
N-dep
model
matches
current
soil Ca
and
stream pH
map for
Del basin.
Possible Collaborative Observation and
Research (CORE) Ecoregions
Yukon River Basin
Grasslands
and North Slope
Pacific Northwest
Rainforest
Southwest
Mountains and
Desert
Northeast Temperate
Forest
Gulf Coast/
Florida Wetlands
Tropical Forest
Permafrost
Temperature
Romanovsky, 1999
1978
2002
(courtesy of B. Riordan)
Globally and locally significant rapid change
The Yukon Basin holds large stores of carbon
Boreal Forest Ecosystems
• 25 - 30% of Global Soil Pool
• 30% Global Vegetation Pool
Thermo-Karst Topography
where permafrost is thawing
METHANE FLUX
Thermo-karst
wetlands emitted 13
times more CH4 to
the atmosphere than
the permafrost
plateau sites on an
annual basis.
mmol CH4 m-2 hr-1
1.0
0.8
Thermokarst wetlands
Thermokarst edges
Permafrost plateau
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
3/20 4/9 4/29 5/19 6/8 6/28 7/18 8/7 8/27 9/16
CO2
CH4
CO2
CO2
CH4
CH4
PERMAFROST
Wickland, 2006
Boreal Forest Changes with
Changing Moisture and
Temperature
Summer (May:Aug) temperature vs. white spruce growth
(Bonanza Creek LTER - Univ. of Alaska Experimental Forest)
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
1912 volcanic ash
2004 record hot
0.2
1993 & 95 spruce budworm defoliation
KILL ZONE
0.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
previous May:Aug T (deg C)
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
MODIS Satellite, 10 August, 2005
Brooks Range
Seward
Peninsula
Fairbanks
Alaska Range
Anchorage
The Yukon River Basin: A rapidly changing landscape
Will thawing permafrost greatly accelerate CO2 flux?
• Landscape is Heterogeneous, Controlled by Soil Drainage
• Permafrost Landscape Highly “Elastic” in C exchange
C Loss
Drier,warmer
60
Permafrost
to Fire
--
Landscapes
30
% of
NPP
Cooler,
wetter
Wetter,warmer
Well
drained
V. Poorly Drained
0
0
100
C Loss to Decomposition
% of NPP
Harden et al, GCB Dec. 2000
How will changes in regional climate affect the hydrology of the Yukon
River, and how will these changes affect water distribution, river flow,
nutrient export to the coastal ocean, and salmon recruitment?
How much of
the C released
from permafrost
will emit to the
atmosphere?
…or
discharge to
rivers and
the ocean?
Linkage
Linkage of
of aa Climate
Climate Effects
Effects and
and Responses
Responses
Network
Network to
to Land
Land Management
Management Issues
Issues
™ Leverage existing and new data and projects to
examine long term association between climatechange effects and responses across spatial and
temporal time scales (the CORE network)
se
on
sp
Predictive
Capability
Ch
an
ge
Re
Cl
im
ate
tem
™ Predict thresholds and
approaching tipping points
DSTs
s
Sy
™ Provide responsive “focus”
studies to address local
needs
™ Develop Decision Support
Tools with local adjustment
Management
Response
Monitoring Data,
Research Results & Models
Science and Management Questions
•
•
•
•
•
How will increases in temperature affect the hydrology of
the Yukon River Basin and how will these changes affect
water distribution and river flow?
Will carbon flux “feedbacks” to warming resulting from
changes in the land cover, soil active layer, and basin
hydrologic regime potentially enhance global climate
warming?
What are the effects of climate change on the abundance,
quality, distribution and access to subsistence resources?
How will these changes affect the distribution, species, and
quality of forest resources ?
What strategies are needed to adapt to the likely effects of
climate change and associated permafrost thawing on natural
resources, human infrastructure, and local culture?
Yukon Foundation Programs
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bonanza Creek/Caribou-Poker Flats LTER Tier 1
UAF/UAA Research and Modeling (eg. Scott Rupp)
FWS/NPS monitoring programs Tier 1
Wolf Creek, Yukon Territories Tier 1
New USGS Research Watersheds- Hess Creek
Soil carbon studies, Gradient Karst sites Tier 2
USGS- Yukon River monitoring program Tier 2
Yukon Foundation Programs
• UAF/USEPA/Tribal Socio-economic studies Tier 3,
• USGS District COOP/Basic Data Programs
(Research and stream gaging) Tier 1, 2, 3
• Alaska Science Center mapping Tier 4
• Lake disappearance study- Tier 4
• EROS coverage development- Tier 4
• NASA, NOAA, EPA
• USFS Forest Inventory & Analysis Prog (FIA)?
Tier3
FOREST SERVICE INVENTORY SAMPLE PLAN?
(12-15 years)
Lower Yukon
5 yrs
Upper Yukon – Porcupine
2 yrs
n plots
n plots
598
301
180 plots/yr
118
261
190 plots/yr
Tanana River
5 yrs
n plots
1010
89
220 plots/yr
Ac/plot
23,600
94,400
Draft, Van Hees, 2005
Add Active Layer C, soil thickness,
Roofed plots
Tier 1: Research
Installations
USGS and UAF Research on the
effects of wetter/dryer/warmer
conditions on C flux
Manipulated water table in wetlands
Tier 2: Active-Layer Monitoring
Stations
Wind Speed
and Direction
Each AL Station Monitors
the Following Climate
Parameters:
Air Temperature
Terrestrial
Snow Depth
Shortwave
Radiation
• soil temperatures (5-120 cm)
• soil moisture
• active-layer depth & duration
• snow depth & duration
• albedo
Permafrost
Temperatures
5-120 cm
Solar Panel
Atmospheric
• air temperature
• wind speed & direction
• cloudiness
Soil Moisture @ 15cm
Datalogger
And Power
sample rate = 30 sec
253
Tier 4: Remote Sensing
positive
2004 Difference Between Predicted
and Observed Temporally-Integrated NDVI
(Coniferous Forests in YRB)
anomalies
113
-112
negative
anomalies
Fires after 1997 outlined
in black
-283
Hydrologic Data Collection- USGS/Canada
Fixed Station Network
Intensive Sampling
Yukon R. at Eagle
Porcupine R.
Yukon R. near Stevens Village
June & Aug-Sept., 2002
Tanana R.
Yukon R. at Pilot Station
LTER
NOAA-IPY
USGS
Pilot Station
K
k
ku
u
oy
r
ve
i
R
on
Yuk
Stevens
Village
ine
p
u
rc er
o
P Riv
June & Aug-Sept., 2003
Fort Yukon
R iv e
Tan
ana
Riv
e
r
Eagle
r
Major Drainage Basins
Upper Yukon R. & Headwaters
Porcupine R.
Tanana R.
East Central Yukon R.
Koyukuk R. & West, Lower Yukon R.
Whitehorse
Research Watersheds (Tier 1) and Fixed river stations (Tier 2)
Ecosystem Modeling
GEMS (General Ensemble Biogeochemical Modeling System)
Requires modeling staff, data management, computing infrastructure
National Benchmark Databases
Land Cover: USGS Land Cover Trends
Soil: STATSGO
Climate: CRTUS2.0 (1900 – 2000)
N Deposition: National Atmospheric Deposition Program
Crop Information: USDA Agricultural Census Data
FIA: Forest biomass, NPP, Age Distribution
Data Assimilation
GEMS
Thousands of Sampling Blocks
Carbon dynamics
simulated at 60 m
x 60 m spatial
resolution within
20 km x 20 km or
10-km by 10-km
sampling blocks
Decision Support Systems
CommunityViz
USGS
Integrated Regional Assessment of Climate Effects on Vegetation,
Soil, and Water in Forested Landscapes
Forest
Soil
FIA, FHM,
NPS, Research,
Remote sensing
FIA/FHM- USGS
Soil surveys,
Research
Air
Climate Research,
NADP
Water
NAWQA, WRD
State/Fed QW
Surveys, Research
What do you see as top climate change issues in Alaskan Forests?
What decision-making capabilities do your need?
What improvements in understanding and predicting
would you like to see from a network?
How can we do this together?
September 2007.
Anaktuvuk River Fire
North Slope tundra of Alaska
Man-made or not,
Large changes are underway
The need for
credible data
The world’s most famous justification
for monitoring data.
Second-most
famous
monitoring
justification?
USGS Polar Bear Report
7 September 2007
Whether human-caused
or not, scientists can
continue to provide data
on climate change and
global warming, but all of
us must decide how we
are going to respond.
Thank You
Questions?
Decision Support Scenarios:
• Adaptation: The combination of ground and remote
sensing data allows resource managers to focus
adaptation strategies for managing trust resources into
specific parts of the landscape.
• Adaptation: Fire management teams use ecosystem
performance maps to guide fire warnings and
preparations, and to track invasive species.
• Adaptation: Pipeline designers use combined network
to plan cost-effective and least-disruptive pathways
for new infrastructure through the rapidly changing
northern landscape.
Examples
Examples of
of Climate
Climate Change
Change Effects
Effects
Physical Effects:
™ Measurable change in meteorological factors
•
™
™
™
Temperature, precipitation, seasonality, storm frequency and
cloud cover
Altered freshwater supply and flow patterns
Increased drought, fire, flooding
Physical changes to the land form (e.g. permafrost)
Biological Effects:
™ Loss or migration of keystone species
™ Corresponding biotic responses
™ Heightened risk of invasives, vector born diseases
Feedback Loops:
™ Changes in vegetation affect regional climate
™ Carbon cycling
™ Altered biogeochemical interactions
The
The GOAL
GOAL –– A
A National
National Climate
Climate Effects
Effects Network
Network That
That
Allows
Allows Systematic
Systematic Application
Application of
of Research
Research Results
Results
™ A truly integrated National climate effect monitoring
network capable of detecting and analyzing change at a
range of temporal and spatial scales
™ A scientific team focused on early detection and
scientific analysis in support of adaptation or mitigation
strategies
™ An information dissemination and decision support
system for cost effective, scientifically rigorous
management and policy decisions
™ The capacity for the next generation to protect and
sustain our National trust resources through early
detection of change
Tier 2 – Condition Sample: Design for Soil CO2 Flux
Delaware River Basin
Delaware Water Gap
Intensive Site
Select new
sample sites by
forest type and
moisture class
Establish 12
sample locations on
lines between subplots
FIA
plot
design