Understanding Industry Staffing
Patterns in U.S. Employment
Projections
Dixie Sommers
Assistant Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Department of Labor
September 29, 2011
Employment Projections
BLS projections approach
 What we project
 Employment projections process
overview
 National Employment Matrix

Projecting staffing patterns
1
BLS projections approach

Projections for 10 year periods
Produced every two years
– 2008-2018 currently available
– 2010-2020 to be published in early 2012

BLS produces national projections
State workforce agencies produce
projections for States and areas
 Employment
concept
Jobs, not persons
2
BLS projections approach

Assume a “full-employment economy”
for the target year (2018)
Labor market in balance
No overall labor surplus or shortage
Target unemployment rate at a full
employment level

Other assumptions and target variables
Energy prices, interest rates, and more
3
What we project

Four inter-related components
Labor force size and composition
– Overall labor supply as constraint on growth
Aggregate economy
– Gross domestic product and its components
Industry demand
– Final demand, output, and employment
Occupational demand
– Employment
– Job openings from replacements
4
Employment projections
process
Population
Labor force
participation rate
trends
Occupational
Employment
Job openings
due to growth &
replacement
needs
Industry
output
Sector wage
rates
Technological
change
Labor Force
Total and by age,
sex, race and
ethnicity
Staffing patterns
Staffing pattern ratio
analyses
Replacement rates
Industry
Employment
Labor productivity,
average weekly hours,
wage & salary
employment
Aggregate
Economy
GDP, total
employment, and
major demand
categories
Economic censuses
Annual economic
surveys
Other data sources
Industry Output
Use and Make
Relationships, Total
Requirements Tables
Demographics
Fiscal policy
Foreign economies
Energy prices
Monetary policy
Industry Final
Demand
Sales to consumers,
businesses,
government, and
foreigners
Input-Output
Tables
5
National Employment
Matrix

Matrix or set of tables
For each industry, the distribution of
employment by occupation or “staffing pattern”
Inverse matrix: for each occupation, the
distribution of employment by industry
293 industries by 750 occupations
– Self-employed and unpaid family workers treated as
industry vectors

Data shown as
Percent distributions or “ratios”
Cell employment = ratio x industry employment
6
National Employment
Matrix

Base-year matrix (2008) data sources
Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
– Employer survey
– Wage and salary workers
– All industries except private households and
most of agriculture
Current Population Survey
– Household survey
– Self-employed and unpaid family workers
– Private household workers and most agriculture
workers
7
Occupational Employment
Statistics (OES) survey

BLS establishment survey
Sample of 1.2 million establishments
Collected over 3-year period

Wage and salary employment
Total employment by occupation
Percent distribution of employment in each
industry by occupation (staffing pattern)
About 800 detailed occupations

Hourly or annual wages
8
OES data for
Residential building construction
SOC code
Major Occupation Group
00-0000
All Occupations
11-0000
Percent of
industry
total
Employment,
May 2008
Annual mean
wage,
May 2008
872,480
100.00
$45,110
Management occupations
70,330
8.06
$95,700
13-0000
Business and financial operations occupations
35,720
4.09
$60,500
17-0000
Architecture and engineering occupations
9,300
1.07
$60,790
19-0000
Life, physical, and social science occupations
840
0.1
$62,700
21-0000
Community and social services occupations
*
*
$41,850
23-0000
Legal occupations
650
0.07
$92,010
27-0000
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations
3,810
0.44
*
29-0000
Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations
100
0.01
*
33-0000
Protective service occupations
690
0.08
*
37-0000
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations
9,210
1.06
$25,880
39-0000
Personal care and service occupations
480
0.06
*
41-0000
Sales and related occupations
34,890
4
$59,470
43-0000
Office and administrative support occupations
125,350
14.37
$32,870
45-0000
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations
70
0.01
$23,360
47-0000
Construction and extraction occupations
556,560
63.79
$40,270
49-0000
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations
11,150
1.28
*
51-0000
Production occupations
2,390
0.27
$37,300
*Not available
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics
9
OES data for
Residential building construction
Detailed construction occupations with 2,500 or more workers
SOC code
Occupation title
Employment,
May 2008
Percent of
industry total
Annual mean
wage,
May 2008
47-2031 Carpenters
265,840
30.47
$41,010
47-2061 Construction laborers
First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and
47-1011 extraction workers
116,070
13.3
$31,150
76,410
8.76
$58,810
47-3012 Helpers--carpenters
32,400
3.71
$25,940
47-2141 Painters, construction and maintenance
12,260
1.41
$33,710
47-2051 Cement masons and concrete finishers
10,790
1.24
$38,510
47-2073 Operating engineers and other construction equipment operators
6,260
0.72
$43,720
47-2111 Electricians
6,030
0.69
$46,210
47-2081 Drywall and ceiling tile installers
4,840
0.55
$39,560
47-2152 Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters
3,880
0.44
$47,290
47-2021 Brickmasons and blockmasons
2,960
0.34
$45,890
2,850
0.33
$33,100
Source:
Bureau
of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics
47-2181
Roofers
10
National Employment
Matrix

Projected-year matrix (2018)
Ratios projected to capture expected
change from factors affecting utilization of
occupations within industries
– Changes in technology
– Changes in product mix
– Changes in business practices
Developed using “ratio analysis”
– Results in “change factor matrix”
– Rational for change recorded
11
National Employment
Matrix

Multiply projected industry employment
by the projected staffing pattern
Results in projected employment by
occupation for each industry

Sum the results for each occupation
across all industries
Results in total projected employment by
occupation
12
National Employment
Matrix

Answers questions such as:
In 2008, what percent of all workers in the
Residential building construction industry
work in the occupation Construction
Managers?
In 2018, what percent of all workers in the
Residential building construction industry
do we expect to work in the occupation
Construction Managers?
13
National Employment Matrix,
Residential building construction
Employment by industry, occupation, and percent distribution, 2008 and projected 2018.
236100 Residential building construction (employment in thousands)
2008
Occupation
00-0000 Total, all occupations
11-1300 Management, business, and financial occupations
11-0000 Management occupations
11-1000
Top executives
11-1011
Chief executives
11-1021
General and operations managers
Advertising, marketing, promotions, public
11-2000
relations, and sales managers
11-2020
Marketing and sales managers
11-2021
Marketing managers
11-2022
Sales managers
11-2031
Public relations managers
11-3000
Operations specialties managers
11-3011
Administrative services managers
11-3031
Financial managers
11-3040
Human resources managers
11-3041
Compensation and benefits managers
11-3049
All other human resources managers
11-3051
Industrial production managers
11-3061
Purchasing managers
11-9000
Other management occupations
11-9021
Construction managers
Continued….
2018
EmployPercent
Percent
Percent of
ment
Employ- Percent of
Employ- Percent of
of
change
occupachange
ment
industry
ment industry occupation
tion
832.1
101.1
67.1
17.3
2.3
15.0
100.00
12.15
8.06
2.08
0.27
1.81
0.55
0.64
0.75
0.79
0.57
0.87
996.9
123.2
80.4
18.4
2.4
16.0
100.00
12.36
8.07
1.85
0.24
1.61
0.60
0.71
0.86
0.84
0.60
0.93
19.81
21.78
19.93
6.33
4.35
6.63
164.8
22.0
13.4
1.1
0.1
1.0
2.4
2.3
0.9
1.4
0.1
4.3
0.9
2.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.8
43.1
39.5
0.29
0.27
0.11
0.16
0.01
0.52
0.11
0.26
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.09
5.17
4.74
0.38
0.43
0.52
0.39
0.15
0.28
0.36
0.40
0.11
0.15
0.10
0.05
1.11
0.95
7.16
2.9
2.8
1.0
1.7
0.1
5.0
1.1
2.5
0.2
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.9
54.1
49.9
0.29
0.28
0.10
0.17
0.01
0.50
0.11
0.25
0.02
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.09
5.43
5.01
0.41
0.46
0.53
0.43
0.15
0.30
0.38
0.43
0.12
0.16
0.11
0.06
1.25
1.13
7.73
22.07
22.59
15.21
27.53
15.70
15.87
16.99
15.75
16.86
17.11
16.64
12.85
14.72
25.69
26.56
0.5
0.5
0.1
0.4
0.0
0.7
0.2
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
11.1
10.5
14
Ratio Analysis

Projecting changes in staffing patterns
within industries
Analysts use occupational expertise and
empirical evidence to make decisions about
how occupational utilization may change
over the projections period
Provide rationale describing forces
underlying the recommendation
Iterative process
15
Change Factors

Show proportional change in an
occupation’s projected share of industry
employment
 Projected-year ratio = change factor x base-year ratio
 For Carpenter’s helpers in Residential building
construction:
4.04 = 1.09 x 3.71

Developed through the Ratio Analysis
process
16
Rationales for Ratio Changes

Rationales should present a reason why
employment of an occupation should change
as a share of industry employment
 “A small increase is expected in utilization of Carpenters helpers because
prefabricated carpentry work is shipped to construction sites more
frequently, these workers will be used as a low-cost alternative to
carpenters.”
Occupation
(Industry)
Carpenters helpers
(Residential building
construction)
Percent
of
Industry
Projected
Industry Growth
Rate
3.71
18.44
Change
Factor
Projected
Percent
of
Industry
Occupational
Growth Rate
in this
Industry
1.09
4.04
30.32
17
Change Factors
Change Factor magnitude
Description
0.50
0.65
0.80
Very large decrease
Large decrease
Moderate decrease
0.90
1.00
1.10
1.20
Small decrease
No change
Small increase
Moderate increase
1.35
1.50
Large increase
Very large increase
18
Ratio Analysis

Total shares of industry employment
must equal 100 percent
Application of initial change factors does
not result in correct totals
Scaling used to force additivity
Resulting projected-year ratios will not
equal initial ratios

Change factor review and scaling
repeated until no further analysts
requests for changes are made
19
Ratio Analysis
Example results for Residential Building Construction
(employment in thousands)
2008
Occupation
Total, all occupations
Construction managers
Employment
832.1
Employment change,
2008-18
2018
Percent of
industry
100.00
Employment
Percent of
industry
Change
factor
Number
Percent
996.9
100.00
1.00
164.8
19.81
39.5
4.74
49.9
5.01
1.06
8.7
25.44
253.5
30.47
294.0
29.49
0.97
40.4
15.94
helpers
30.9
3.71
40.3
4.04
1.09
9.4
30.32
All other helpers,
construction trades
1.2
0.15
1.5
0.15
1.00
0.3
25.34
Carpenters
Carpenters
20
Ratio Analysis Impact

Without ratio analysis
– Assume that staffing patterns would not
change over the projection period
– All occupational employment change would
result from industry employment change

How much difference does ratio analysis
make?
– Apply base-year staffing patterns to projectedyear industry employment
– Compare the result with actual projections
made using ratio analysis
21
Ratio Analysis Impact

Changes total employment by
occupation
Shifts of employment into the occupation
Shifts of employment out of the occupation
Net change
22
Ratio Analysis Impact

Shifted about 4.5 million jobs from one
occupation to another
2.69 percent of total jobs projected for
2018
Employment Impact of Ratio Analysis on the 2008-18 Projections Cycle
All numbers in thousands.
Occupation
Total, All Occupations
Percent of
Percent of
Net
2018 jobs
2018 jobs
Jobs moved out
Jobs moved in
impact
moved out
moved in
Net percent
impact
-4,467.4
4,467.4
0
-2.69%
2.69%
0.00%
23
Ratio Analysis
Positive net percent impact of ratio analysis on projected employment by major
occupation group, net job shift as percent of 2018 projected employment
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Business and financial operations
4.76%
Life, physical, and social science
3.62%
Healthcare support
3.03%
Computer and mathematical science
2.85%
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media
2.37%
Installation, maintenance, and repair
2.05%
Education, training, and library
1.94%
Healthcare practitioners and technical
1.81%
Personal care and service
1.69%
Community and social services
1.39%
Architecture and engineering
1.28%
Protective service
1.12%
Food preparation and serving related
0.53%
Legal
0.51%
Production
Sales and related
5%
0.39%
0.12%
24
Ratio Analysis
Negative net percent impact of ratio analysis on projected employment by major
occupation group, net job shift as percent of 2018 projected employment
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
Construction and extraction
-1.34%
Transportation and material moving
-2.70%
Office and administrative support
Management
0%
-0.07%
Farming, fishing, and forestry
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance
-1%
-3.04%
-3.53%
-3.70%
25
Using the matrix

Using the matrix to understand
industries and occupations
Industry structure
Concentration of occupations in industries
Distribution of occupational employment
across industries
26
Largest occupations in
Residential building construction
Occupation
2008
Employment
2018
Projected
Projected
percent
employment change
Projected
numerical
change
47-2031
Carpenters
253.5
294.0
15.94
40.4
47-2061
110.7
144.3
30.32
33.6
47-1011
Construction laborers
First-line supervisors/managers of construction
trades and extraction workers
72.9
95.0
30.32
22.1
11-9021
Construction managers
39.5
49.9
26.56
10.5
47-3012
Helpers—Carpenters
30.9
40.3
30.32
9.4
43-9061
Office clerks, general
28.2
32.7
15.98
4.5
43-6014
Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive
27.2
29.2
7.46
2.0
43-3031
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks
23.4
27.2
15.94
3.7
13-1051
Cost estimators
16.1
20.9
30.35
4.9
11-1021
15.0
16.0
6.63
1.0
43-6011
General and operations managers
Executive secretaries and administrative
assistants
14.1
16.3
15.89
2.2
41-9022
Real estate sales agents
12.1
14.0
15.97
1.9
47-2141
Painters, construction and maintenance
11.7
13.9
18.46
2.2
47-2051
Cement masons and concrete finishers
10.3
11.7
13.53
1.4
(Employment in thousands)
27
Occupations concentrated in
Residential building construction
2008
2018
Employment
Percent
of
industry
Employment
Percent
of
industry
30.9
3.71
38.71
40.3
4.04
40.90
30.32
9.4
47-2031 Carpenters
First-line supervisors/managers
of construction trades and
47-1011 extraction workers
253.5
30.47
19.73
294.0
29.49
20.27
15.94
40.4
72.9
8.76
10.44
95.0
9.53
11.79
30.32
22.1
47-2061 Construction laborers
110.7
13.30
8.86
144.3
14.47
9.59
30.32
33.6
13-1051 Cost estimators
16.1
1.93
7.37
20.9
2.10
7.67
30.35
4.9
11-9021 Construction managers
Cement masons and concrete
47-2051 finishers
All other helpers, construction
47-3019 trades
39.5
4.74
7.16
49.9
5.01
7.73
26.56
10.5
10.3
1.24
5.12
11.7
1.17
5.15
13.53
1.4
1.2
0.15
4.49
1.5
0.15
5.01
25.34
0.3
47-2022 Stonemasons
0.9
0.11
3.87
1.1
0.11
4.06
17.11
0.2
27-1025 Interior designers
Manufactured building and
49-9095 mobile home installers
Insulation workers, floor,
47-2131 ceiling, and wall
2.5
0.30
3.49
2.8
0.28
3.23
10.48
0.3
0.3
0.04
3.36
0.4
0.04
3.51
9.96
0.0
0.9
0.11
3.35
1.0
0.10
3.19
9.40
0.1
Occupation
47-3012 Helpers—Carpenters
Percent of
occupation
Percent of
occupation
Percent
change
Employment
change
(Employment in thousands)
28
Industries where
most Carpenters work
Industries with 2008 employment of 15,000 or more for Carpenters
2008
Industry
000000
Total employment, all workers
SE1300
Employment
2018
Percent
Percent Percent of
Percent
of
Employof
occupa- Employof
occupa- Percent ment
industry
tion
ment industry tion
change change
1,284.9
0.9
100.0
1,450.3
0.9
100.0
12.9
165.4
Self-employed workers, all jobs
411.2
3.5
32.0
458.0
3.7
31.6
11.4
46.8
236100
Residential building construction
253.5
30.5
19.7
294.0
29.5
20.3
15.9
40.4
236200
Nonresidential building construction
160.2
19.36
12.46
184.6
18.63
12.73
15.27
24.5
238100
Foundation, structure, and building
exterior contractors
131.0
13.27
10.20
147.6
13.08
10.18
12.63
16.5
238300
Building finishing contractors
126.8
13.89
9.87
147.7
14.41
10.18
16.51
20.9
561300
Employment services
24.3
0.77
1.89
30.1
0.80
2.07
23.58
5.7
321900
Other wood product manufacturing
17.1
6.46
1.33
15.4
6.42
1.06
-10.24
-1.8
(Employment in thousands)
29
BLS projections products

Projection data for each component
Data tables
Technical outputs for researchers
News release
 Analysis in the Monthly Labor Review
 Technical documentation

30
BLS projections products

Occupational Outlook
Handbook

Career Guide to Industries

Occupational Outlook
Quarterly
31
BLS projections products

Occupational Outlook Handbook
Nature of the work
Training, other qualifications, and
advancement
Employment and job outlook
Earnings
Related occupations
Sources of additional information
32
References

Employment Projections
 http://www.bls.gov/emp/

Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)
 http://www.bls.gov/oes/

Occupational Outlook Handbook
 http://www.bls.gov/oco/

Occupational Outlook Quarterly
 http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq

Career Guide to Industries
 http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/
33
Contact Information
Thank you!
Dixie Sommers
Assistant Commissioner
Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Department of Labor
2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE
Washington, D.C. 20212
Sommers.Dixie@bls.gov