Occupational Labour Demand and
Supply in Canada
Luke Ignaczak and Nicolas Tremblay-Côté
Warwick International Symposium on Employment and Skills Forecasting
Sept. 29, 2011
Warwick University, Coventry, U.K.
*The views expressed in this document are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect the
opinions of Human Resources and Skills Development Canada or the Federal Government
Presentation Outline
I. Introduction to the Canadian
Occupational Projection System
II. Data and Classification Systems
III. Projection Methods, Innovations and
Challenges
IV.Summary and Direction of Future Work
2
A Brief History of COPS
 1982 (Apr.) - The Canadian Occupational Projection
System (COPS) was created
– replaced the Canadian Occupational Forecasting System
(COFOR)
 1983-1988 (The developmental years)
– Model development and enhancement
– Forging partnerships
– Projection production
 1989-1993 (Sector studies era)
 Increased emphasis on sector studies
– Relevant to program activities (immigration and training)
 1994-2004 (LMI Emphasis)
– Greater focus on Labour Market Information
• Production of Job Futures
3
Recent Developments (2005-2011)
 Projection results used in support of policy and program
analysis
 Production of labour supply, demand and imbalances at the
broad skill and occupational level
 Ongoing model enhancement and development
 Provide outputs for use in Labour Market Information (LMI)
– Occupational Summaries
– Projection Data
 Provide outputs for use in fast tracking immigration claims
– Contribute to the list of high demand occupations
 Disseminate to the public
– Detailed data
– Broad analysis
4
Goal of the COPS System
The Goal of the system is to estimate ex-ante
labour market imbalances at the occupational
level in support of policy analysis and labour
market information production
5
Classification Systems
 National Occupational Classification (NOC)
– Classifies occupations into skill levels (education
usually required for entry) and skill types
 North American Industrial Classification
System (NAICS)
– Standardized industrial classification
– Aggregated into 33 COPS Industries
 Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP)
– Encompasses the field of study choices of students
– Aggregated into approximately 50 COPS major fields
of study (MFS) by level of education
6
National Occupational Classification Matrix (NOC)
8
Main data sources used in the projections
Data Sources
(Statistics Canada)
Principal Use
Labour Force Survey
(Monthly)
- Primary data to project employment growth by occupation (expansion
demand)
- Occupational distribution of non-PSE graduates (high school and less than
high school) and discontinuants (from PSE)
Census
(Every 5 years)
- Provide the labour force participation rate of immigrants
- Allocation of new immigrants by occupation
National Graduates
Survey (Every 5 years)
- Primary source of data on how graduates by field of study map into
employment in specific occupations
Post-secondary
Student Information
System
(Annual)
- PSIS data used to project new school enrolments and the new supply entering
the labour market from the different education levels
Annual Demographic
Statistics
- Demographic projections used for immigration, emigration, deaths as well as
inputs for other “supply-side” models
9
Summary of COPS Projection Methods
Demographic and Macroeconomic-Industrial Projections
Employment
Labour Force
outflows
Expansion
Demand
Replacement
Demand:
- Retirements
- Emigrants - Deaths
Labour Demand
intra-flows
inflows
Job Seekers:
Net Mobility
- School leavers
- Immigrants
- Net reentrants
Labour Supply
Future Labour Market Imbalances
by Broad Skill Level
Future Labour Market Imbalances
by Occupation
Change in employment versus
change in labour force by broad skill level
Labour demand versus labour supply
by occupation
10
Imbalances at the broad skill level
Broad Skill Imbalances 2011-2020:
5
5.5
COPS 2011 Reference Scenario
4.5
4
Skill Level B
All Occupations
Skill Level C
3.5
Skill Level D
3
Job Openings AR (%)
Management Occupations
Skill Level A
3
3.5
4
4.5
Job Seekers AR (%)
5
5.5
 The analysis of broad skill
imbalances compares growth in
employment by skill level to
growth in the labour force by
educational qualification
 The 45º line represents balanced
growth between job openings
and job seekers at the broad skill
level
 The starting points of the
analysis are important,
particularly during volatile
periods
 The analysis is used primarily to
make overall assessments
before presenting detailed
occupational evaluations
12
Expansion Demand
 Projects the new occupational demand stemming from anticipated economic
growth
 Projections of occupational shares (140 occupations) are made within each
industry group (33 industries)
 Autonomous equations for occupational clusters
– Allows related occupations at the detailed level to trend together
 The results are decomposed into occupational and industrial effects using
shift-share analysis as an analytical and validation tool
COPS 2011 Reference Scenario, Expansion Demand: Shift Share Analysis
N124-Secretaries, Recorders and Transcriptionists and N321- Medical Technologists and Technicians)
4.0
1.2
3.5
1.1
3.0
1.0
2.5
2.0
0.9
1.5
0.8
1.0
0.5
0.7
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Occupational Effect
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Industrial Effect
13
Replacement Demand: Retirements
 Projects new job openings
generated by existing workers
leaving their current positions
because of retirement
– Retirement is defined as a
permanent withdrawal from paid
employment for those aged 50+
 Aggregate retirement rates by age
and gender are computed using tax
filer data (due to lack of reliable
alternative data sources)
 Occupational Retirements are
computed by ageing the
occupational profiles of employment
(Age Distribution Model)
 Total Occupational Retirements are
constrained to equal aggregate
retirements
Aggregate Retirements
300
LAD (Ref. 2009 Estimate)
250
LFS (SRS)
200
150
100
50
0
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007
Occupational Retirements: Age Distribution Model
3.5%
3.0%
Median Retirement Age
2.5%
Employment Age Distribution
2.0%
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
Age
56
---7.6%------>
14
School Leavers
 The school leavers model accounts for new
entrants into the labour market from the
education system
 Student flows are estimated by OLS
regression
 Estimated student flows are converted to field
of study choices by a fixed share vector
 2 field-of-study to occupation transition
matrices are used:
– The first scenario constrains leavers into
“intended occupations” by assuming certain
fields and levels of study do not intend to work
in specific occupations (i.e. bachelor in
anthropology is not compatible with food
counter attendant)
– The second matches graduate outcomes to
the occupational classification of recent labour
force entrants by age and education.
– Comparison between these facilitates an
analysis of intended versus realized outcomes
(contributes to analysis of occupational
mismatch)
School leavers by education level and
skill level, 2011-2020
4.7%
33.4%
24.2%
By
education
level
37.7%
University
College
High school & some PSE
Less than high school
5.3%
12.7%
20.7%
28.6%
By skill
level
32.7%
Management
Skill Level A
Skill Level B
Skill Level C
Skill Level D
Source: COPS 2011 Reference Scenario.
15
Demographic-Driven Components
 Many model components rely on simple extrapolations
and rely primarily on demographic factors:
– The Immigration Model (labour supply flow) relies on a fixed
participation rate and occupational vector combined with a gross
population inflow generated by the demographic model
• Work is currently underway to include dynamics in the
occupational transition vector
– Emigration (Replacement Demand – labour demand flow) is
simply computed using the demographic accounts combined with
occupational and participation rate assumptions
– In-service mortality (Replacement Demand – labour demand
flow) uses age-specific death rates combined with occupational
age distributions
 In addition, synthetic cohort approaches are used to obtain
net labour market re-entrants, net occupational
mobility and the unemployment add-factor
16
Imbalances at the Occupational Level
Occupational Imbalances 2011-2020:
8
7
2
3
4
5
6
Demand greater than supply
-1
0
1
Supply greater than demand
Management Occupations
Skill Level A
Skill Level B
Skill Level C
Skill Level D
-2
Job Openings as a % of 2010 employment
9
10
COPS 2011 Reference Scenario
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Job Seekers as a % of 2010 employment
8
9
10
 The analysis of occupational
imbalances compares the
number of job seekers to the
number of new job openings as
a share of base year
employment
 The 45º line represents balanced
growth between job openings
and job seekers at the broad skill
level
 The starting point of the analysis
matter, particularly during
volatile periods
 The analysis is used primarily to
make overall assessments
before presenting detailed
occupational evaluations
17
Stock-Flow Consistency
 All Occupational projection models, with the
exception of the expansion demand and labour
force participation model, are estimated as flows
 There is no single anchor to the aggregate labour
market situation
 All results are reconciled to the aggregates via a
stock-flow accounting system
– both historical estimates and projections
18
Labour market conditions
 Components are combined to produce a qualitative
assessment of conditions in occupation by component
 Qualitative assessments of employment prospects are
compiled
EX-POST
Empns10
Expansion Demand
('000)
11-20
AAGR
AR
All Occupations
15,731.8
1,987.4
1.2
1.3
Management
Skill Level A
Skill Level B
Skill Level C
Skill Level D
1,490.1
3,020.9
5,331.3
4,364.5
1,525.0
177.7
524.8
684.4
421.3
179.1
1.1
1.6
1.2
0.9
1.1
Business, Finance & Adm
Natural and Applied Sc.
Health
Social Sc,. Education & Gov.
Art, Culture, Recreation & Sport
Sales and Services
Trades & Transport
Primary
Processing, Manufacturing & Utilitie
3,194.2
1,281.9
1,137.5
1,504.3
499.0
4,090.6
2,657.5
513.5
853.2
310.6
240.8
247.2
211.7
76.9
502.8
308.1
47.6
41.8
00-09
11
12
14
21
22
31
32
34
41
42
51
52
62
64
66
72-73
74
76
82
84
86
92
94-95
96
1,490.1
548.6
976.4
1,359.1
692.2
512.0
472.9
242.5
316.2
1,072.1
398.8
235.1
249.5
1,024.7
1,277.7
1,170.3
1,464.5
819.8
136.2
325.8
95.0
83.2
137.1
496.9
135.2
177.7
104.9
82.9
91.6
144.0
80.2
113.7
44.2
73.9
131.6
77.6
30.6
45.0
148.3
150.4
141.7
164.2
91.5
16.3
29.8
4.2
10.2
12.3
9.7
10.8
Management Occupations
Professional Occ's in Busin
Skilled Administrative & Bu
Clerical Occupations
Professional Occ's in Natu
Technical Occ's Related to
Professional Occupations i
Technical / Skilled Occupa
Assisting Occ's in Support
Professionals in Social Sci
Paraprofessional Occ's in L
Professional Occupations i
Technical / Skilled Occ's in
Skilled Sales & Service Oc
Intermediate Sales & Servi
Elemental Sales & Service
Trades & Skilled Transport
Intermediate Occ's in Tran
Trades Helpers, Construct
Skilled Occ's in Primary Ind
Intermediate Occ's in Prima
Primary Industry Labourers
Processing / Manufacturing
Processing & Manufacturin
Labourers in Processing, M
Retirements
11-20
AR
AAR
A
3,696.3
2.3
2.2
1.2
1.7
1.3
1.0
1.2
A
AA
A
A
A
441.8
698.8
1,275.1
978.3
302.2
3.0
2.3
2.4
2.2
2.0
0.9
1.7
2.0
1.3
1.4
1.2
1.1
0.9
0.5
1.0
1.9
2.2
1.4
1.5
1.2
1.2
0.9
0.5
A
AA
AA
A
A
A
A
A
BA
901.5
244.9
296.3
342.0
110.3
850.6
596.1
114.0
240.4
1.1
1.8
0.8
0.7
1.9
1.5
2.2
1.7
2.1
1.2
1.8
1.2
1.7
1.4
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
0.9
0.4
1.2
0.9
0.2
0.8
1.2
1.9
0.8
0.7
2.1
1.6
2.4
1.8
2.3
1.2
1.9
1.3
1.8
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.2
0.9
0.4
1.2
0.9
0.2
0.8
A
AA
A
A
AA
A
AA
AA
AA
A
AA
A
AA
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
BA
A
A
BA
A
441.8
148.6
317.4
331.7
111.5
115.0
119.9
56.7
74.6
255.2
73.4
63.7
41.8
214.5
231.6
240.9
328.3
186.2
18.3
83.3
16.0
12.2
44.8
138.2
30.9
Deaths
Emig
Expected Demand
School Leavers
11-20
09-18
AR
11-20
AR
A
354.0
6,533.5
4.2
A
4,736.7
3.0
A
1,065.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
AA
A
A
A
A
33.4
69.5
120.0
96.8
34.3
707.8
1,392.5
2,244.0
1,625.4
563.8
4.8
4.6
4.2
3.7
3.7
AA
A
A
A
A
251.1
979.1
1,550.0
1,352.6
603.9
1.7
3.2
2.9
3.1
4.0
BA
A
A
A
AA
85.0
197.1
246.3
355.4
181.4
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.8
1.2
103.1
33.7
36.9
45.1
17.4
134.3
77.9
22.7
24.7
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
AA
A
70.9
29.6
26.8
34.1
11.3
92.2
59.3
11.4
18.5
1,386.1
549.0
607.2
632.9
215.9
1,579.8
1,041.4
195.7
325.5
4.3
4.3
5.3
4.2
4.3
3.9
3.9
3.8
3.8
A
A
AA
A
A
A
A
A
A
847.5
445.4
331.8
504.3
196.3
1,382.6
720.0
134.5
174.3
2.7
3.5
2.9
3.4
3.9
3.4
2.7
2.6
2.0
A
A
A
A
AA
A
A
A
BA
178.2
135.3
52.4
64.5
26.3
314.5
137.4
22.2
134.4
55.0
20.6
33.5
38.2
18.7
12.8
17.5
6.5
9.0
32.9
10.9
9.7
7.1
31.9
38.3
39.8
39.4
27.6
2.8
17.7
2.7
1.9
4.6
13.2
3.6
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.3
AA
AA
A
A
A
BA
AA
A
A
A
A
AA
A
A
A
A
A
A
BA
AA
A
BA
A
A
A
33.4
12.8
21.5
29.7
16.1
11.7
11.2
5.6
7.6
24.1
9.3
5.3
5.7
23.4
28.7
26.4
32.6
18.3
3.0
7.2
2.0
1.9
3.0
10.5
3.0
707.8
286.9
455.4
491.2
290.4
219.6
262.2
112.9
165.0
443.7
171.2
109.3
99.6
418.0
449.0
448.8
564.5
323.6
40.4
138.1
24.9
26.2
64.7
171.7
48.4
4.8
5.2
4.7
3.6
4.2
4.3
5.5
4.7
5.2
4.1
4.3
4.7
4.0
4.1
3.5
3.8
3.9
3.9
3.0
4.2
2.6
3.2
4.7
3.5
3.6
AA
AA
A
A
A
A
AA
A
AA
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
BA
A
BA
BA
AA
BA
A
251.1
155.7
211.5
424.8
244.2
186.5
137.1
84.8
98.6
363.7
137.2
78.2
113.8
326.7
503.4
440.8
427.1
181.3
73.5
43.3
41.3
48.8
19.1
103.2
40.9
1.7
2.8
2.2
3.1
3.5
3.6
2.9
3.5
3.1
3.4
3.4
3.3
4.6
3.2
3.9
3.8
2.9
2.2
5.4
1.3
4.3
5.9
1.4
2.1
3.0
BA
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
AA
A
AA
AA
A
A
AA
BA
AA
AA
BA
BA
A
85.0
27.6
35.7
95.0
88.6
41.0
23.2
11.2
15.9
45.2
19.1
12.5
13.0
50.2
98.8
120.8
66.0
52.9
11.4
5.7
9.5
6.7
4.4
83.3
42.5
11-20
AR
A
495.8
0.3
2.8
2.1
2.2
2.1
1.8
AA
A
A
A
A
55.0
99.4
164.4
128.9
48.1
2.8
1.9
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.8
2.6
1.7
2.3
2.1
2.0
1.9
2.1
2.1
2.7
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
3.0
2.7
3.3
2.4
1.6
2.2
2.5
2.3
2.4
2.4
1.8
2.7
1.7
2.1
1.8
2.1
2.2
2.3
1.3
2.6
1.7
1.5
3.3
2.8
2.3
2.8
2.4
3.1
2.3
1.4
2.0
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.2
1.6
2.5
1.5
1.9
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.1
1.2
2.4
1.6
1.4
3.1
2.7
2.1
AA
A
AA
A
BA
A
A
A
A
A
BA
A
BA
A
BA
A
A
A
BA
A
BA
BA
AA
A
A
Immigration
11-20
Mobility
AR
Excess
Demand
(annual)
NFLMS
XD /
SL+IM
CLMC
REF10
A
27.0
0.2
4.7%
Fair
5.0
3.1
5.0
4.5
3.9
4.1
3.2
AA
A
A
A
BA
-1.5
4.4
24.2
-9.3
9.3
-0.1
0.1
0.5
-0.2
0.6
-4.5%
3.7%
13.5%
-5.5%
11.8%
Fair
Good
Fair
Fair
Limited
2.6
2.5
4.5
6.2
10.6
3.3
1.0
0.2
7.1
4.7
1,182.6
637.5
539.3
602.9
210.9
1,442.5
1,065.9
159.5
422.4
3.8
5.1
4.8
4.1
4.3
3.7
4.1
3.3
5.1
A
AA
A
A
A
A
A
BA
AA
20.4
-8.8
6.8
3.0
0.5
13.7
-2.4
3.6
-9.7
0.6
-0.7
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.3
-0.1
0.7
-1.1
19.8%
-15.2%
17.7%
5.3%
2.3%
8.1%
-2.9%
23.1%
-31.4%
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Limited
3.8
3.4
1.6
2.9
4.2
5.5
7.5
8.9
8.1
-2.1
8.0
-3.6
1.0
2.9
2.2
7.4
2.5
15.5
722.8
233.7
305.7
487.5
367.7
232.3
221.6
107.4
158.1
428.9
154.9
96.8
102.3
376.5
451.5
344.3
572.6
321.2
46.9
90.2
37.5
24.7
60.3
262.9
55.2
5.0
4.3
3.2
3.7
5.4
4.7
4.8
4.5
5.1
4.1
4.0
4.2
4.2
3.8
3.7
3.1
4.0
4.1
3.6
2.9
4.1
3.1
4.5
5.5
4.3
AA
A
BA
A
AA
A
A
A
AA
A
A
A
A
A
A
BA
A
A
A
BA
A
BA
A
AA
A
-1.5
5.3
15.0
0.4
-7.7
-1.3
4.1
0.5
0.7
1.5
1.6
1.3
-0.3
4.2
-0.3
10.5
-0.8
0.2
-0.7
4.8
-1.3
0.1
0.4
-9.1
-0.7
-0.1
1.0
1.5
0.0
-1.1
-0.2
0.9
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.4
0.5
-0.1
0.4
0.0
0.9
-0.1
0.0
-0.5
1.5
-1.3
0.2
0.3
-1.8
-0.5
-4.5%
29.0%
60.6%
0.7%
-23.3%
-5.6%
25.4%
5.7%
6.0%
3.6%
10.4%
13.8%
-2.1%
11.0%
-0.4%
18.6%
-1.6%
1.0%
-7.7%
97.8%
-24.7%
2.6%
18.9%
-48.9%
-8.2%
Fair
Good
Fair
Fair
Good
Fair
Good
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Fair
Limited
Limited
Fair
Fair
Limited
Fair
Limited
Limited
Fair
Limited
Limited
2.6
2.4
2.7
5.2
2.7
4.6
1.0
1.5
2.4
2.9
3.1
3.4
4.9
4.1
5.3
8.3
6.8
8.0
18.2
3.0
15.0
21.3
3.9
8.5
13.2
3.3
-6.4
-12.6
4.5
10.3
5.9
-6.4
-0.6
0.3
1.5
-0.7
-1.5
5.1
0.3
4.7
0.3
6.7
6.8
18.4
-11.4
21.9
17.5
0.9
20.3
14.9
PR+
AF
UR
Educ
NS
11-20
11-20
11-20
11-20
11-20
11-20
11-20
AR
A
461.50
605.12 164.19 -207.89 -99.93
0.00
6,263.5
4.1
17.6
-0.2
-0.5
0.6
-15.4
AA
A
A
A
BA
117.70
179.90
233.32
-18.32
-51.10
56.86 78.92
112.37 91.68
205.17 123.01
172.89 -74.52
57.84 -54.89
-12.28
-19.42
-61.53
-78.35
-36.32
-5.81
-4.72
-33.33
-38.34
-17.73
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
722.82
1,348.6
2,002.2
1,718.7
471.1
63.6
-12.8
112.8
-48.2
-38.1
-307.6
131.0
-8.5
107.8
1.9
-1.0
9.8
-3.1
-7.3
-7.1
4.5
-1.5
11.6
A
A
AA
A
BA
BA
A
A
AA
93.3
69.5
42.4
82.2
26.4
53.0
77.5
11.3
5.9
122.3
48.5
42.3
56.4
19.0
156.1
105.9
20.6
34.1
32.2
37.0
19.9
43.5
13.8
-6.4
27.6
2.7
-6.1
-41.4
-11.2
-13.7
-12.8
-4.4
-64.6
-36.9
-8.0
-14.8
-19.9
-4.7
-6.1
-4.8
-1.9
-32.2
-19.0
-4.1
-7.3
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
268.9
17.8
16.6
-26.6
-6.4
-17.6
33.5
1.1
44.8
-44.2
-18.6
-8.1
-35.5
-44.9
-145.3
-179.1
13.5
90.5
-33.0
27.2
-12.8
-27.5
30.8
78.5
-23.5
17.6
3.2
1.7
-1.9
-0.9
-3.3
7.0
0.5
13.9
-4.0
-4.5
-3.3
-13.5
-4.2
-10.8
-14.0
0.9
10.1
-19.7
8.0
-11.5
-25.9
21.4
14.4
-15.1
AA
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
AA
A
A
A
BA
A
BA
BA
A
AA
BA
A
BA
BA
AA
AA
BA
117.7
32.6
41.9
-5.6
41.3
22.4
27.7
10.3
-1.3
64.1
17.1
14.1
10.9
44.6
-5.3
-38.2
65.9
-3.5
-5.0
14.1
-0.4
-3.2
6.0
-2.1
-4.7
56.9
20.4
36.9
53.2
25.8
19.7
17.3
9.0
12.0
40.1
15.1
8.8
9.6
39.2
50.0
43.3
58.0
33.2
5.7
12.4
4.2
3.6
5.3
20.2
5.3
78.9
16.6
22.1
-22.9
21.1
11.8
14.1
5.4
-5.2
32.7
9.0
7.2
5.8
23.5
-21.6
-41.1
34.7
-14.3
-5.4
7.4
-1.8
-3.4
3.2
-8.7
-5.0
-12.3
-3.5
-11.1
-24.1
-4.5
-5.9
-3.0
-2.7
-5.4
-6.9
-4.5
-1.5
-2.9
-11.8
-22.7
-27.2
-17.4
-15.1
-3.6
-3.7
-1.9
-2.3
-1.6
-9.2
-3.3
-5.8
-0.9
-6.0
-11.8
-1.1
-3.2
-0.7
-1.5
-2.7
-1.7
-2.4
-0.4
-1.6
-6.4
-11.1
-13.3
-9.4
-7.4
-1.7
-2.0
-0.9
-1.1
-0.9
-4.5
-1.6
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
AR
0.00
0.0
A 268.93
A
-7.44
A
-27.40
A
28.99
AA -263.09
0.6
1.1
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.8
0.5
0.4
1.6
A
AA
A
A
A
A
A
A
AA
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.7
1.3
0.8
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.0
0.5
0.6
0.8
0.2
1.0
0.8
0.3
1.7
3.1
A
A
A
A
AA
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
A
AA
A
A
A
BA
AA
A
A
AA
AA
NO AF ->
0.7 A
Expected Supply
Others
11-20
FL U. Rate
MC 2010
19
U.
Rate
2018
Technical challenges
 Occupational mobility is fairly rudimentary in the system
 Many flows are only captured as residual series in the
stock-flow reconciliation
 Many of the data series used are constructed internally
– often very limited snapshots of data are used to construct entire
time series
– this is difficult to validate
 Evaluating the accuracy of all system components is
problematic given time constraints
– This is particularly problematic as policy analysts want to know the
degree of certainty associated with each projection
20
Conceptual challenges
 Ex-ante imbalances require a constant wage to generate
excess demand or supply – our demand side is
determined within equilibrium framework
– We have no feedback between demand and supply via wages or
employment adjustment
– The current supply side is treated as an assessment of whether
educational and immigration trends are capable of meeting the
anticipated (market-determined) growth in demand
 Are the model results appropriate for Policy Analysis or
LMI?
– Do point estimates produce too much false certainty?
 In the school leavers model, the evaluations of anticipated
outcomes often rely on analyst judgement
– It is uncertain whether it is reasonable to construct an “ex-ante”
educational to occupation transition matrix based on assumptions
21
Future Work
 Results of the 2011 projection cycle will be posted
on the internet
 Continuing model improvement work
 Work on expanding the accounting system for the
stock models
– Major revision of the labour force participation model
 Research and modelling of occupational mobility
flows
 Next projection cycle is in 2013
22
Thank You
For Canadian occupational projection data, occupational
summaries and technical documentation please visit:
www23.hrsdc.gc.ca
23