Climate Responses to Spectral Solar
Forcing in the GISS Global Climate
Middle Atmosphere Model!
Guoyong Wen1,2, Robert F. Cahalan1, David Rind3, Jeff Jonas3,
Peter Pilewskie4, Jerald Harder4, Natalie Krivova5!
!
!
1NASA/Goddard!
2GESTAR/Morgan
State University!
3NASA/GISS!
4University
of Colorado!
5Max Planck Institute!
!
!
Guoyong Wen, Page 1
Well Established TSI 11-year variability (0.1%),
accuracy and uncertainty (1360.8±0.5W/m2)
Kopp, G., and J. L. Lean (2011), A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance, Geophys. Res. Lett., 38,
L01706, doi:10.1029/2010GL045777.
Guoyong Wen, Page 2
SIM and SOLSPEC Irradiance Spectra
J.W. Harder, G. Thuillier, E.C. Richard, S.W. Brown, K.R. Lykke, M. Snow, W.E. McClintock, J.M. Fontenla, T.N. Woods, P. Pilewskie, 'The SORCE SIM Solar
Spectrum: Comparison with Recent Observations' ,Solar Physics, 263, Issue 1 (2010), pp 3, doi:10.1007/s11207-010-9555-y
Guoyong Wen, Page 3
Variation, accuracy and uncertainty
of SSI are not well established.
Some Relevant Studies:
Cahalan et al, 2010
Haigh et al., 2010
Merkel et al., 2011
Ineson et al., 2011
Swartz, al., 2012
Haigh et al, 2010
Guoyong Wen, Page 4
What we did before?
Cahalan et al., GRL, 2010
Solar Variations (Lean 2000)
Solar Variations (Harder et al 2009)
And RCM Response
Identical TSI And RCM Response
TSI!
VIS!
TSI!
VIS!
UV! IR!
UV! IR!
40km!
40km!
25km!
25km!
To!
Ta!
Increased 11-yr in Stratosphere G
Decreased 11-yr At Surface & Oceans H Guoyong Wen, Page 5
Motivations of This Study
What the community needs to do?
From Ermolli et al. (2013)
“It is necessary (1) to understand the recent SORCE SIM measurements
of spectrally resolved irradiances and assess their implications for solar
influence on climate; (2) to determine an accurate value of the total and
spectrally resolved solar irradiance during a grand solar minimum such
as the Maunder Minimum” Gray et al., (2010)
•  Reconstruct SIM-based historical solar forcing
•  Use GISS GCM to simulate climate responses
Ermolli et al. (2013), Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, 2013, www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/3945/2013/doi:10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013
Guoyong Wen, Page 6
GISS Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM)
•  Full Coupled OceanAtmos. Model (Rind et
al., 2007)
•  53 Layers Atmosphere
(top at mesopause), 13
layer ocean (Russell et
al., 1995)
•  Interactive chemistry
•  Model has a sensitivity
of 2.8C to doubling of
CO2
Global average surface air temperature response
to doubling CO2.
Rind, D., J. Lerner, J. Jonas, and C. McLinden (2007), Effects of resolution and model physics on tracer transports in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D09315, doi:10.1029/2006JD007476.
Guoyong Wen, Page 7
GCM Experiments
Variation of SATIRE SSI
4
Experiments
I.  SATIRE modeled SSI
II.  SIM-based SSI
Irradiance [W/m2]
(a)
2
Mid-UV (200-300 nm)
Near-UV (300-400 nm)
Visible (400-700 nm)
SWIR (>700 nm)
TSI
0
-2
-4
Variation of SIM-Based SSI
(b)
Irradiance [W/m2]
•  Fixed GHGs, aerosols
•  Centennial time scale
•  Averaged 11-year SC
4
Same ΔTSI
Near-UV
2
0
Mid-UV
ΔIR
-2
ΔVIS
-4
1600
1700
1800
Time [Year]
1900
2000
Rind, D., J. Lerner, J. Jonas, and C. McLinden (2007), Effects of resolution and model physics on tracer transports in the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
general circulation models, J. Geophys. Res., 112, D09315, doi:10.1029/2006JD007476.
Guoyong Wen, Page 8
Centennial and Longer Time Scales: Trend and Variability
Global Temperature Response
Spectral Solar Forcing
Same ΔTSI (fixed GHGs)
Temperature Reponse to SATIRE Modeled Solar Forcing
4
20 mb: T = 0.028+ 0.06/100 [t(year)-1610], n* = 274 years
T(°C)
3
Variation of SATIRE SSI
4
2
Mid-UV (200-300 nm)
Near-UV (300-400 nm)
Visible (400-700 nm)
SWIR (>700 nm)
TSI
0.1°C/century (43km)
0.06°C/century (25km)
0
1600
1.5
1700
1800
1900
2000
1900
2000
100 mb: T = 0.007+ 0.04/100 [t(year)-1610], n* = 320 years
1.0
0
-2
0.5
1000 mb: T = -0.036+ 0.05/100 [t(year)-1610], n* = 325 years
0.04°C/century (15km)
0.06°C/century (srf)
0.0
-0.5
1600
-4
Variation of SIM-Based SSI
1700
1800
Time [year]
Temperature Response to SIM-based Solar Forcing
5
4
2 mb: T = 0.70 + 0.75/100 [t(year)-1610], n* = 342 years
2
Same ΔTSI Near-UV
4
T(°C)
(b)
3
2
0
0
1600
1.5
ΔIR
ΔVIS
1700
1800
Time [Year]
1.0
1900
1700
1800
1900
2000
1900
2000
100 mb: T = 0.084 + 0.22/100 [t(year)-1610], n* = 292 years"
-2
-4
1600
20 mb: T = 0.17 + 0.38/100 [t(year)-1610], n* = 337 years
0.75°C/century
0.38°C/century
1
Mid-UV
T(°C)
Irradiance [W/m2]
2
1
T(°C)
Irradiance [W/m2]
(a)
2 mb: T = 0.09 + 0.1/100 [t(year)-1610], n* = 261 years
0.5
1000 mb: T = 0.033 + 0.02/100 [t(year)-1610], n* = 588 years
0.22°C/century
0.02°C/century
2000
0.0
-0.5
1600
1700
1800
Time [year]
•  Increased trends and variability in the stratosphere G
•  Decreased trends H and increased variability at surface G
•  Decreased signal (trend) to noise (variability) ratio at surfaceH
Guoyong Wen, Page 9
11-Year SC: Averaged Responses of ANN Zonal Mean T
GISS GCMAM
SIM-based
Forcing:
T(min)-T(max)!
T(min)SSI
- T(max)
: Harder
ANN
0
.5
-1
2.5
00
-2.
2.0
-2.00
Pressure (hPa)
1.0
-1.50
-1.00
-0.75
-1.2
5
10.0
1.5
75
-1.
-1.75
1.0
-1.50
-1.25
0.5
-0.50
-1.00
-0.7
-0.5
-0.
5
50
-1.0
-0.50
100.0
0.0
-0.50
-0.25
-0.25
0
0.0
-1.5
0.25
0
0.0
Temperature difference (K)
-1
.2
0
.5
-1
75
-1.75
5
0.1
-1.
HadGEM3 Ineson (2011)
-2.0
1000.0
-2.5
0.00
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
SATIRE Modeled
SSI Forcing:
T(min)-T(max)!
T(min) - T(max)
: Krivova ANN
0
-0.5
00
-0.75
-1
.
1.0
-0.50
0.5
10.0
-0
00
0.
0.0
25
.
-0
.2
5
-0.5
-0.2
5
-1.0
100.0
0.
00
-1.5
-2.0
0.00
1000.0
-90
-75
-60
Temperature difference (K)
1.5
0
25
Pressure (hPa)
2.0
-0.
•  Unique pattern in S.H polar response
to SATIRE modeled solar forcing
2.5
0.
0
0.25
•  Much stronger stratospheric response
to SIM-based solar forcing in general
1.0
-0.25
0
-0.5 5
.2
-0
•  Strong N.H. polar stratospheric
response to SIM-based solar forcing
similar to that from HadGEM
0.1
0
0.0
0.0
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Latitude (degree)
45
0
60
-2.5
75
90
Guoyong Wen, Page 10
11-Year SC: Averaged Responses of ANN Zonal Mean T
SATIRE ANN : T(max) - T(min)
0.001
2.5
2.2
1.5
0.1
1.1
1.
0.8
0.4
10.
0.0
-0.3
100.
-0.6
1000.
-1.0
-90
•  ~3 times as large as ΔT for
SATIRE
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
SIM ANN : T(max) - T(min)
2.5
2.2
0.01
Pressure (hPa)
•  Tropical and both N.H. & S.H.
Polar
-75
0.001
•  Max ΔT near lower mid
mesosphere
Temperature difference (K)
1.8
1.8
1.5
0.1
1.1
1.
0.8
0.4
10.
0.0
Temperature difference (K)
Pressure (hPa)
0.01
-0.3
100.
-0.6
1000.
-1.0
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
Guoyong Wen, Page 11
2.0
0.01
1.
0.0
-0.5
10.
-1.0
Pressure (hPa)
0.5
Temperature difference (K)
1.0
-1.5
100.
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
2.4
1.6
0.1
0.8
1.
0.0
-0.8
10.
-1.6
-2.4
-3.2
1000.
-2.5
-90
3.2
100.
-2.0
1000.
4.0
0.01
1.5
0.1
SATIRE DJF : T(max) - T(min)
0.001
2.5
90
Temperature difference (K)
SATIRE JJA : T(max) - T(min)
0.001
-4.0
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
Seasonal Changes are different.
2.0
0.01
0.5
1.
0.0
-0.5
10.
-1.0
-1.5
100.
-2.0
1000.
-2.5
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
Pressure (hPa)
1.0
4.0
3.2
0.01
1.5
0.1
SIM DJF : T(max) - T(min)
0.001
2.5
2.4
1.6
0.1
0.8
1.
0.0
Temperature difference (K)
SIM JJA : T(max) - T(min)
0.001
Temperature difference (K)
Pressure (hPa)
Pressure (hPa)
11-Year SC: Averaged Responses of Seasonal Mean T
-0.8
10.
-1.6
-2.4
100.
-3.2
1000.
-4.0
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
Guoyong Wen, Page 12
11-Year Solar Cycle: Averaged Responses of Zonal Mean O3
SATIRE ANN : [O3(max) - O3(min)]/O3(min) (%)
0.001
5.0
1.8
1.
1.0
0.2
10.
-0.6
-1.4
100.
•  Secondary max ΔO3 near in the
mid-upper mesosphere (2.6-3.4%)
vs 0.2-1% for SATIRE forcing
1000.
-2.2
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15 30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
SIM ANN : [O3(max) - O3(min)]/O3(min) (%
0.001
•  Local min near stratopause (1%)
75
90
)
-3.0
5.0
4.2
0.01
Pressure (hPa)
•  ~3 times as large as ΔO3 for
SATIRE
2.6
0.1
3.4
2.6
0.1
1.8
1.
1.0
0.2
10.
Ozone Mixing Ratio Difference (%)
Pressure (hPa)
•  Max ΔO3 near mid stratosphere
(4-5%) vs 1-2% for SATIRE
forcing
3.4
Ozone Mixing Ratio Difference (%)
4.2
0.01
-0.6
-1.4
100.
-2.2
1000.
-3.0
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
Guoyong Wen, Page 13
11-Year SC: Averaged Responses of Seasonal Mean O3
5.0
3.0
0.1
2.0
1.
1.0
0.0
10.
-1.0
1000.
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15 30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
-4.0
3.8
2.4
1.0
-0.4
10.
-1.8
-3.2
100.
-3.0
-90
5.2
1.
-2.0
100.
6.6
0.1
Pressure (hPa)
4.0
8.0
0.01
Ozone Mixing Ratio Difference (%)
Pressure (hPa)
0.01
SATIRE DJF : [O3(max) - O3(min)]/O3(min) (%)
0.001
6.0
1000.
Ozone Mixing Ratio Difference (%)
SATIRE JJA : [O3(max) - O3(min)]/O3(min) (%)
0.001
-4.6
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15 30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
-6.0
Seasonal Changes are different.
)
3.0
0.1
2.0
1.
1.0
0.0
10.
-1.0
-2.0
100.
-3.0
1000.
-4.0
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15 30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
)
8.0
6.6
0.01
Pressure (hPa)
Pressure (hPa)
4.0
Ozone Mixing Ratio Difference (%)
5.0
0.01
SIM DJF : [O3(max) - O3(min)]/O3(min) (%
0.001
6.0
5.2
3.8
0.1
2.4
1.
1.0
Ozone Mixing Ratio Difference (%)
SIM JJA : [O3(max) - O3(min)]/O3(min) (%
0.001
-0.4
10.
-1.8
-3.2
100.
-4.6
1000.
-6.0
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15 30
Latitude (degree)
45
60
75
90
Guoyong Wen, Page 14
11-Year Solar Cycle: Averaged Responses of ANN Zonal Wind
SATIRE ANN : U(max) - U(min)
0.001
2.5
2.0
•  Max ΔU (-2.5m/sec) centered at
lower mesopshere in S.H. mid-lat
and out-of-phase with solar
activity.
1.0
0.1
0.5
1.
0.0
-0.5
10.
-1.0
-1.5
100.
-2.0
1000.
-2.5
-88
•  S.H. patterns are similar to those
for SATIRE, but out-of-phase
-72
-56
-40
-24
-8
8
24
Latitude (degree)
40
56
72
88
SIM ANN : U(max) - U(min)
0.001
•  N.H. patterns are similar to those
for SATIRE with shift in lat.
2.5
2.0
0.01
Pressure (hPa)
Zonal Wind (m/sec)
1.5
1.5
1.0
0.1
0.5
1.
0.0
Wind (m/sec)
Pressure (hPa)
0.01
-0.5
10.
-1.0
-1.5
100.
-2.0
1000.
-2.5
-88
-72
-56
-40
-24
-8
8
24
Latitude (degree)
40
56
72
88
Guoyong Wen, Page 15
11-Year SC: Averaged Responses of Seasonal Wind
3.0
1.0
0.0
1.
-1.0
-2.0
10.
-3.0
Pressure (hPa)
2.0
0.1
-4.0
100.
-72
-56
-40
-24
-8
8
24
Latitude (degree)
40
56
72
4.0
3.0
0.1
2.0
1.
1.0
0.0
10.
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
1000.
-6.0
-88
5.0
100.
-5.0
1000.
6.0
0.01
Zonal Wind (m/sec)
Pressure (hPa)
0.01
SATIRE DJF : U(max) - U(min)
0.001
4.0
88
Zonal Wind (m/sec)
SATIRE JJA : U(max) - U(min)
0.001
-4.0
-88
-72
-56
-40
-24
-8
8
24
Latitude (degree)
40
56
72
88
Seasonal Changes are different.
3.0
1.0
0.0
1.
-1.0
-2.0
10.
-3.0
-4.0
100.
-5.0
1000.
-6.0
-88
-72
-56
-40
-24
-8
8
24
Latitude (degree)
40
56
72
88
Pressure (hPa)
2.0
0.1
6.0
5.0
0.01
Wind (m/sec)
Pressure (hPa)
0.01
SIM DJF : U(max) - U(min)
0.001
4.0
4.0
3.0
0.1
2.0
1.
1.0
0.0
10.
Wind (m/sec)
SIM JJA : U(max) - U(min)
0.001
-1.0
-2.0
100.
-3.0
1000.
-4.0
-88
-72
-56
-40
-24
-8
8
24
Latitude (degree)
40
56
72
88
Guoyong Wen, Page 16
Summary
•
•
•
•
•
On centennial time scales, SIM-based solar forcing implies
(i) increased temperature trend in the stratosphere and
decreased trend at surface, (ii) increased temperature
variability throughout the atmosphere, (iii) increased
temporal variation of surf T on multi decadal time scales.
Solar variations under either scenarios do not cause the
temperature increase since the industrial revolution.
On decadal time scale (11-year SC), SIM-based SSI
implies much larger temperature and O3 responses, and
out-of-phase zonal wind response in S.H.
SSI in the rising phase of SC 24 and implications of solar
influence on climate? What about uncertainties?
What are the requirements of SSI observation for
climate studies?
Guoyong Wen, Page 17