The Risk Management
component of
Continuous Improvement
Oregon IIMT Meeting
May, 2010
Three Levels of Risk
Management
1.Strategic
2. Deliberate
3. Time Critical
Strategic Risk
Assessment
Overview
The SRA Process
• Identifies threats to values at risk
• Evaluates alternative prospects
• Anchors response on firefighter exposure
• Emphasis on tradeoffs between exposure and
protection objectives
• Explicitly considers safety
• Incorporates exposure assessment directly into
strategy => “Exposure Budget”
Prospect One (Point Protection – Checking) Details
Strategy
Point Protection and Check Lines
Total Prospect Area (acres)
17, 500
Prospect Containment Line
Completed (chains)
264
Planned Contingency Line
(chains)
160 chains (estimate)
Resource Values At Risk
See Risk Assessment (Tables 1A - 1C)
Critical Infrastructure At Risk
See Risk Assessment (Tables 1A - 1C)
Structures at Risk
See Risk Assessment (Tables 1 A- 1C)
Estimated Incident Responder
Exposure (person hours)
72,964 person hours
Estimated Cost
$3.9 million
Resource
at Risk
Probability
Consequences, Effects
Mitigation and
and Severity
Action Trigger
•
•
NU 1
•
Rone Ranch
•
43.2817°N
122.5908°W
•
NU 2
•
Doehead
Mountain
Electronic Site
•
43.2055°N
122.6265°W.
•
•
Very low
probability of
fire reaching
resource
Low probability
of fire reaching
resource.
Probability of damage
•
or loss commensurate
with fire severity.
•
Consequences of loss
•
- $250,000 for
structure plus timber
values.
•
High probability of
success surviving a
low severity fire.
•
Low potential for the
building to burn down.
•
Significant disruption
of communications.
•
$100,000
Evacuation, fuels
reduction, structure
protection Coordinate
with DFPA.
Action Trigger – 3 burn
periods before fire
reaches the site.
•
Fuels prep before the
fire reaches the
building would need to
be done.
•
Action trigger-Expected
fire perimeter to be
within 1 mile of the site
within 24 hours.
Resource
Resource Type
T1 Crews
T2 Crews
Engines
Dozers
Water Tender(s)
Chippers
Lowboy
Skidder
Fixed Wing A/C
Type 2
Helicopters
Type 3
Helicopters
Overhead
Total Exposure
# People # Units Phase 1/2 P1 Exposure P2 Exposure
Persons Per
Resource Unit
Number of Resource Units
(Phase 1/Phase 2)
20
20
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
4/0
11/3
15/10
1/0
1/1
1/1
1/0
1/0
1/1
1/0
1
1/1
1
105/8
Total exposure
Phase 1 (personhours)a
Total exposure Phase 2
(person-hours)
1,120
21,560
2,940
98
196
98
98
98
42
84
0
19,320
6,440
0
644
0
0
0
138
0
42
138
10,290
43,386
2,576
29,578
Total Exposure = (Persons per unit) x (Number of resource units) x (14 Hrs/Day) x
(Length of Prospect Phase). The total exposure (Phases 1 and 2 combined) for the entire
30-day Prospect is 72,964 person hours.
Prospect Details – Prospect 2 (Full Perimeter Control)
Strategy
Full Perimeter Containment
Using Indirect Line
Total Prospect Area (acres)
Prospect perimeter (chains)
52, 200
3,360 chains
Planned Contingency Line
(chains)
None – full perimeter containment
Resource Values At Risk
Aquatic and terrestrial habitat including ESA
listed species habitat (Coho salmon and Northern
Spotted owl), forest timber production lands,
Heritage resources, Late Successional Reserves
Critical Infrastructure At Risk
None
Structures at Risk
Agency Improvements: Boze shelter, shelter,
Rocky Ridge shelter, Twin Lakes East trailhead,
and the Black Rock Fork stream logs.
Estimated Incident Responder
Exposure (person hours)
377,202 person hours
Estimated Cost
$22.0 million
Resources Required and Exposure Assessment
Prospect Two (Full Perimeter Control)
Resource Type
T1 Crews
T2IA Crews
T2 Crews
Fellers
Engines
Dozers
Water Tender(s)
Graders
Type 1 Helicopters
Type 2 Helicopters
Type 3 Helicopters
Overhead (line)
Overhead (camp)
Total Exposure
Persons Per
Resource Unit
Number of Resource
Units
20
10
10
2
2
2
1
1
2
2
1
1
1
20
10
10
50
36
20
30
3
4
8
4
75
151
Total exposure (person-hours)a
117,600
58,800
58,800
29,400
21,168
11,760
8,820
882
1,008
2,016
504
22,050
44,294
377,202
Total Exposure = (Persons per unit) x (Number of resource units) x (14 Hrs/Day) x (Length
of Prospect Phase). The total exposure for the entire 21-day Prospect is 377,202 person
hours.
The Risk Based
Decision
• Course of action
• Least exposure prospect that
meets reasonable objectives of the AA
• Worth exposing firefighters
• Reasonably safe
• AA committed to stay within the exposure
budget
Risk Assessment
on the Incident
Three Levels of Risk
Management
1.Strategic
2. Deliberate
3. Time Critical
Definitions
HAZARD = a condition that
exists with the potential to
cause injury, illness, or death
of personnel; damage to or
loss of equipment or property;
or mission degradation.
Definitions
• RISK = the probability and severity of
loss linked to hazards.
– The probability of an undesirable outcome.
• RISK ASSESSMENT = the identification
and assessment of hazards.
– The first two steps of the risk management
process.
Definitions
• RISK MANAGEMENT = The process of
identifying, assessing and controlling risks
arising from operational factors and making
decisions that balance risk exposure with
mission benefits.
THE SEVEN STEP PROCESS
Identify Mission
Identify Hazards
Assess Risks
Identify Options
Evaluate Risk vs Gain
Execute Decision
Monitor Situation
Risk Management Process
Feedback and
record the hazard
identification and
assessment and
risk mitigation
An action is being considered
Identify hazards/consequences
and assess risks
Define the level
of probability
Define the level
of severity
Define the level of risk
Take action
and continue
the operation
YES
Is the risk level acceptable?
NO
Take action
and continue
the operation
YES
Can the risk be eliminated?
NO
YES
Can the risk be mitigated?
YES
Can the residual risk be
accepted? (if any)
Take action
and continue
the operation
ICAO Safety Management Systems (SMS) Course
NO
Cancel the
operation
What can we do with risk?
•
•
•
•
Mitigate (reduce)
Transfer (give it to somebody else)
Avoid (“No-Go” decision)
Accept (but do so deliberately)
Alternative 215A
Likelihood/Probability
Severity
1
Negligible
2
Minor
3
Major
4
Hazardous
5
Frequent
4
Occasional
HIGH
3
Remote
2
Improbable
1
Extremely
Improbable
MEDIUM
LOW
5
Catastrophic
Defining Probability and Severity
Levels
Residual Risk
The level of risk
remaining after controls
have been identified
and selected.
MISSION ANALYSIS
• Risk is analyzed at the mission level.
• Mission is directly related to an incident
objective.
• Provides a means of identifying decision
points.
• Is a record of completed actions.
MISSION ANALYSIS
Mission Objective
Protect Kerosene Ranger Station
by constructing direct line on
Lantern Ridge
Decision
Point
Tasks
1
Conduct Scouting and Hazard
Identification
2
Establish Anchor & construct line
3
Burn Out Line in Division A after
Line in Division C is completed.
Secure line
Status
MISSION ANALYSIS
Mission Objective
Protect fishery habitat values in
Gasoline Creek using tactics
that limit fire intensity to low
level.
Decision
Point
1
2
Tasks
Status
Conduct Scouting and Hazard
Identification
Utilize low intensity firing
operations to secure fire
perimeter at creek.
3
Utilize indirect perimeter
control on Grease Ridge
4
Burn out line at night to reduce
fire intensity.
Secure line thru prioritized
Mop-up Actions
Not
viable
due to
Wx.
Time Critical
 Risk assessments done “on the fly”
by firefighters at the ground level.
 Deference to expertise.
 Make risk decisions at the
appropriate level.
 Doctrinal approach.
Risk management is more than just an analytical
process, it is a different way of communicating.
Risk sharing relationship with
agency administrator
What is the risk vs. the gain?
Is the risk worth the amount of exposure?
DISCUSSION