Central French Alps LTSER site
Pénélope Lamarque et Sandra Lavorel
Fabien Quétier, et Maud Mouchet
This research was funded by the ERA-Net BiodivERsA, with the national funders ANR, part of the 2008 BiodivERsA call for research proposals.
Climate
change
Increase of drought occurrence in inner
French Alps
?3
Mechanisms
High sensibility of
sub-alpine ecosystem
?2
Relative
contribution
Land management practices
adaptations
Direct
effects
Indirect
effects
Plant diversity and ecosystem properties
modifications
?1
Climate effects
Ecosystem services change
1.
of climate
change directly
or indirect
indirectly
through
land on
3. What
Whichare
arethe
theeffects
mechanisms
determining
direct and
climate
effects
2.
relative on
contributions
and indirect
management
adaptation
the supply of direct
ecosystem
services climate
(ES) ? effects on
ES?What are the
ES ?
Climate change
Direct effects
Indirect effects
Plant functional traits
Land-management types
(types)
Ecosystem properties
Land-management types
(proportions)
Ecosystem services
Scenario 1
Scenario n
Ecrins
Villar d’Arène
South-facing slope
Area : 13 km²
Altitude : 1550 to 2442 m
Part of LTSER Alps
Data collected for 60 plots since 2003
& about history of land use change
Summer range
Summer range
Permanent mown
grasslands
Mown
Summer grazing
Mown & fertilised
Crops -->
Terraces
Past management
(1950)
Mown & unfertilised
Spring+autumn grazing
Current management
(2010)
Altitude : 1550 to 2442 m
Climate :
subalpine with strong
continental influence
Short growing season :
April to September
Extensive agriculture
60 to 150 heifers
Heifers raising
+ meat direct selling (1)
130 to 170 sheep
&
20 to 40 heifers
Lambs for labelled meat
Heifers raising
60 to 100 sheep
+/- 900
Transhumant
Lambs for labelled
sheep
meat
1
Co-building of 4 highly detailed storylines with regional
experts:
2 climatic and 2 socio-economic alternatives
Local
International
Drastic
4 Consecutive years of drought
1 year
4 Consecutive years of drought
1 year
50%
50%
€
Local Consumption
“Quality food production” agricultural policies
€
Intermittent
Drought occur every other year
1 year
1 year
15%
15%
€
Globalisation of market
€
“Landscape” agricultural policies
1
Co-building of 4 highly detailed storylines with regional
experts
- Identification of main drivers
- Hypothesis of change
2
Co-building of land management
adaptation maps with farmers
-Role-playing game to set farmers in
situation of change
A role playing game to map future land management
Board game
Putting farmers in a given situation
to manage their herd and fodder
production
Pieces representing
herd and fodder
To use support to make discussion
content easier to farmers
Rules card
 To identify decisions of land
management and drivers
Actuel
1
2
3
4
5
7
7%
Current situation
12%
42%
11%
7%
22%
Future
scenarios
Choc global
Choc territorial
3
Local
3f
4
4f
5
1
7
2
3
International
Drastic
4
5
5f
7
1%
9%
14%
42%
3f
42%
14%
6%
2%
15%
2%
3%
25%
22%
2%
graduel global
graduel territorial
Intermittent
1
2
3
3f
4
4f
13%
42%
5
5f
7
1
2
3
3f
4
4f
42%
8%
13%
1%
22%
0%
2%
6%
24%
1%
5f
7
2%
11%
6%
5
2%
4%
1%
1
Co-building of 4 highly detailed storylines with regional
experts
- Identification of main drivers
- Hypothesis of change
3
Estimation of
change in
biophysical
parameters
2
Co-building of land management
adaptation maps with farmers
-Role-playing game to set farmers in
situation of change
- Field experiments
and scientific
experts evaluation
4
Modelling effects on ecosystem services
- Statistical analysis
Lavorel et al, 2011. J. of Ecology
Structure et processes
Modelled ecosystem
properties
Modelled
ecosystem services
Traits
VgH
Green Biomass
Forage quality
LNC
Crude protein content
Forage quantity
Nitrogen mineralization
potential
Soil fertilty
Vmax
Nitrate retention
Water quality
DEA
Soil organic matter content
Carbon storage
Flowering onset
Pollination
Litter mass
Aesthetic
Simpson Index
Botanical
diversity
conservation
Land management
LDMC
LPC
Abiotics
components
WHC
Soil NO3
NNI
Altitude
Climate
Current
LuCurClimCur
Drastic
Land management
Intermitte
nt
X
X
LuDLClimD
X
LuIL-ClimI
X
X
LuIIClimCur
X
LuILClimCur
X
LuCurClimD
LuCurClimI
Intermitte
ntInternatio
nal
Intermitte
nt-Local
X
X
LuDLClimCur
DrasticLocal
X
LuII-ClimI
X
DrasticInternatio
nal
X
LuDI-ClimD
LuDI_Clim
Cur
Current
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
Land management
10 % of variance
Vegetation
ES
Soil ES
Climate
84 % of
variance
Carbon sequestration
Carbon sequestration
Soil fertility
Plant
diversity
Flowering
onset
Land management
change
Water quality
Forage quality
Climate
change
Water quality
Plant
diversity
Green
biomass
Litter
mass
Soil fertility
Green
biomass
Flowering onset
Current
Scenarios
Intermittent local
Litter mass
Forage quality
10% of
total variance
Intermittent international
Drastic international
Carbon sequestration
Soil fertility
Drastic local
Water quality
Plant
diversity
Green
biomass
Litter mass
Flowering onset
Forage quality
Carbon sequestration
Soil fertility
84% of
total
variance
Water quality
Plant
diversity
Green
biomass
Litter mass
Flowering onset
Forage quality
 Methodological framework based on functional traits
 To identify direct and indirect climate effects influencing ES delivery at
landscape scale
 To tease out underlying mechanisms
 2 mechanisms identified :
 Magnitude of change in land management
 Magnitude of ecological effects
 However most ES responded predominantly to climate direct effects due to
site constraints for agriculture
 Indirect effects are important to take into account in policy as they could
occur at shortest term than direct effect
 Participatory process allowed to increase awareness of stakeholders on the
role they could play
Lautaret LTSER site : http://sajf.ujf-grenoble.fr/
VITAL project description and publications : http://sajf.ujfgrenoble.fr/spip.php?rubrique260
LTSER Alps : http://www.za-alpes.org/
Contacts : Sandra Lavorel (sandra.lavorel@ujf-grenoble;fr)
Penelope Lamarque (penelope.lamarque@gmail.com)
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
CHOC
Normal
CHOC
Normal
GRADUEL
GRADUEL
GRADUEL
GRADUEL
Scénarios
d’utilisation
du sol
LU
actuels
LU
2015
Scénarios
de services
ES
actuels
Scénarios
climatiques
LU
futurs
ES
futurs
Step 1
Environment
al drivers
Step 2
Response and
effects traits
Step 3
Ecosystem
properties
Step 4
Ecosystem
services
Plant
Microbial
NNI= LUT+
β1*Altitude
Lavorel et al, 2011
VegHt = LUT+
β1*NNI
Green biomass =
β0 + β1 *NNI
+ β2 *VgHt – β3 *LDMC
Stakeholders
’ perceptions
Land management effects
NO
YES
Current context :
Status quo for climate
and land management
4 artificial scenarios coupling land
management scenarios’ configurations
with climate status quo
- LuCur-ClimCur : Current Land use and
climate context
- LuDI_ClimCur : drastic and international land
use with current climate
- LuDL-ClimCur: drastic and local land use with
current climate
- LuII-ClimCur: intermittent and international
land use with current climate
- LuIL-ClimCur: intermittent and local land use
with current climate
4 artificials scenarios couling climate
scenarios’ effects
with status quo land management
configuration
4 land-management scenarios coupled with
climate scenarios’ effects
Climate effects
NO
YES
- LuCur-ClimD : Current Land use and drastic
climate
-LuCur-ClimI: Current Land use and
intermittent climate
- LuDI-ClimD : drastic and international
- LuDL-ClimD: drastic and local
- LuII-ClimI : intermittent and international
- LuIL-ClimI: intermittent and local