Views from climate space reveal
missing assets in conservation
portfolios:
A strategy for enhancing adaptive
capacity to climate change
Jennifer Davison
Lisa Graumlich
College of the Environment
University of Washington
How can we increase adaptive capacity of
biodiversity under climate change?
Hedging in the face of uncertainty
Landscapes in “Climate space” ?
A hedging approach?
• Climatic diversity is a proxy for biodiversity
• Protection across a range of climatic constraints:
– Accounts for known and unknown biodiversity
– Hedges against ecosystem-destabilizing climate
change
– Provides greater possibility for future habitat
protection
• Consideration of the “climate space” of a
landscape can hedge against uncertainties
Climate space augments
other strategies
• Spatial connectivity and species distribution
models
– Rely on species-location-climate relationships
• Matrix management
– A “no regrets” strategy
– Requires collaboration
– Difficult to prioritize landscapes
• Assessing the climatic diversity of protected areas
can provide new perspectives for conservation
How do we map climatic diversity of
protected areas?
• Identify protected and unprotected areas
Land Management in the Southwestern US
´
0
250
500 Km
Status 1: protected, natural disturbances allowed/simulated
Status 2: protected, disturbances suppressed
Status 3: multiple / extractive use
Lowry et al. 2007
Status 4: no known protection
How do we map climatic diversity of
protected areas?
• Identify protected and unprotected areas
• Identify climatic constraints of the study site
– Landscape to regional scales
Southwestern ecosystems are
constrained by water and energy
Winter mean PPT
´
mm/day
5.0
mm/day
8.6
0.2
0
500 1000 Km
March mean Temperature
˚C
18.3
-11.4
Summer mean PPT
0.1
Summer mean PET
mm/day
6.4
1.4
Climate is one of the main
determinants of ecoregion boundaries
Bailey's Ecoregion Provinces
Intermountain semi-desert and desert
Intermountain semi-desert
NE-UT mountains-semi-desert
Great Plains-Palouse dry steppe
S. Rocky Mountain steppe
American semi-desert and desert
Chihuahuan semi-desert
AZ-NM mountains semi-desert
0
125
250
Bailey 1983
500 Kilometers
´
CO Plateau semi-desert
SW Plateau and plains dry steppe and shrub
Summer PPT (mm/day)
Southwest in
Current Climate Space
5
4
Wet
Hot
Wet
Cool
3
Dry
Hot
2
1
Dry
Cool
0
0
250
500 Km
2
3
4
5
Summer PET (mm/day)
Status 1: protected, natural disturbances allowed/simulated
Status 2: protected, disturbances suppressed
Status 3: multiple / extractive use
Status 4: no known protection
6
250
500 Km
Status 1: protected, natural
disturbances allowed/simulated
Status 2: protected, disturbances
suppressed
Status 3: multiple / extractive use
Status 4: no known protection
Summer PPT (mm/day)
0
5
Winter PPT (mm/day)
Protected lands occupy drier portions
of the Southwest’s climate space
8
4
Status 1 Lands
Wet
Cool
Status 2 Lands
Climate space Wet
Hot
of region
3
Dry
Hot
2
1 Dry
0
Cool
2
3
4
5
6
Summer PET (mm/day)
Wet
Late Spring
2
3
4
5
6
Summer PET (mm/day)
Wet
Early Spring
6
Dry
Early Spring
4
2
0
Dry
Late Spring
-8 -4 0 4 8 12 16
March mean temperature (C)
-8 -4 0 4 8 12 16
March mean temperature (C)
How do we map climatic diversity of
protected areas?
• Identify protected and unprotected areas
• Identify climatic constraints of the study site
– Landscape to regional scales
• Calculate the distance in “climate space”
– Each unprotected area to every protected area
• Map these distances across the landscape
IMA: “Index of Missing Assets”
´
Minimum climatic
distance to S1 & S2 lands
High Summer
High Winter
Low
Summer
High
Winter
High
Summer
Low
Winter
Low Summer
Low Winter
S1 & S2 lands
State boundaries
0
250
500
Km
IMA: “Index of Missing Assets”
´
Sevilleta NWR
Bosque del
Apache NWR
0
0
250
500 Km
50
100 Km
Minimum climatic
distance to S1 & S2 lands
High Summer
High Winter
High
Summer
Low
Winter
Low Summer
Low Winter
S1 & S2 lands
Low
Summer
High
Winter
State boundaries
“Climate space” and the
urgency for collaboration
Bureau of Land
Management
Native American
Tribal Lands
Regional, State and
Local Lands
Private / No Known
Restriction
Summer PPT (mm/day)
USDA Forest Service
Land Tenure and Stewardship in
Status 3 and 4 Lands
5
4
3
2
1
0
2
3
4
5
6
Summer PET (mm/day)
Climate space of region
Questions?