SPATIAL ANALySIS
AND DECISION
SUPPORT
www.IVM.vu.nl/SPACE
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ENVIRONMENTAL
GEOGRAPHY
Spatial heterogeneity of the
environment and human activity
causes the impacts of global
environmental change to depend
on location and context
The Department Spatial Analysis and
Decision Support investigates the role
of spatial variation in environmental
systems. Human activity responds to the
variation in the natural environment, but
also leaves a spatially-diverse imprint
on the environment. The identification
of vulnerable people and places under
conditions of environmental change is of
prime importance in designing effective
environmental management strategies
and planning.
The Department develops innovative
methods for monitoring environmental
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change by remote sensing and using
state-of-the-art methods for analyzing
spatial patterns to better understand,
model and communicate processes
across different scales. Explicit attention
is given to feedback mechanisms and
the emergence of spatial patterns as a
result of interacting human-environment
processes.
The interdisciplinary expertise of
the Department has been used in a
wide variation of integrated projects.
The researchers have a strong
expertise and experience in bridging
different disciplinary perspectives of
environmental change and integrated
assessment modelling. The complexity
of the environmental problems requires
the integration of data from many
sources and multiple disciplinary
perspectives. For this reason, the
department staff is capable of resolving
problems of integration that are both
technological and human in nature.
Research THEMES
The Department addresses four main
research themes. Many cross-cutting
issues between the themes are
addressed. Examples of such crosscutting research are projects related
to Sustainable Cities and Global
Assessment Models.
Decision
support
tools
MAPPING
AND
MODELLING
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
department
spatial
analysis
and
decision
support
LAND USE
MODELLING
ADAPTATION
TO CLIMATE
CHANGE
sustainable cities
Research to support the development of
sustainable cities in the context of global
environmental change is a cross-cutting
research topic of the Department. In
multiple research projects, adaptation
options and the provision of urban
ecosystem services are studied using
interdisciplinary and integrated systems.
GLOBAL ASSESMENT MODELS
The Department conducts research at
multiple spatial and temporal scales,
linking local to global dynamics.
Multiple research themes come together
in our work on environmental assessment
models at the global scale, including the
development of global land change.
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ADAPTATION TO
GLOBAL CHANGE RISK
We develop methods for risk analysis
and evaluation of associated costs of
damage due to flooding and droughts
Dynamic links between hydrological
models, land use models and economic
damage assessments have been
established to allow an integrated
analysis of exposure, damage and
possible adaptation options. These
studies involve projections of people,
assets and their location, in combination
with estimates of future hazard
probabilities based on climate scenarios.
Adaptation measures are evaluated in
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different contexts ranging from local
measures such as small sand dams to
store water in areas suffering droughts
(e.g., in Kenya and Ethiopia) and urban
planning and risk management in
coastal cities such as Rotterdam (the
Netherlands), Jakarta (Indonesia), Ho
Chi Minh City (Vietnam), and New York
(USA). Several new research activities
focus on the impacts of climate change
and climate variability on water related
issues at the global scale, including
developing models to asses flood risk
at the global scale, assessments of the
impacts of El Niño on flooding, global
assessments of adaptation costs in the
water supply sector, and global analyses
of spatial and temporal patterns in water
scarcity.In
Aerts, J., Botzen, W., Bowman, M., Ward, P.J. & Dircke, P. (2011). Climate adaptation and flood risk in coastal cities. Earthscan, Oxford, 330pp.
Ward, P.J., De Moel, H.& Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2011). How are flood risk estimates affected by the choice of return-periods? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 11, 3181-3195, DOI: 10.5194/nhess-11-3181-2011.
Bouwer, L.M., Vermaat, J.E. & Aerts, J.C.J.H. (2008). Regional sensitivities of mean and peak river discharge to climate variability in Europe. Journal of Geophysical Research, 113, DOI:10.1029/2008JD010301
Kummu, M., Ward, P.J., De Moel, H. & Varis, O. (2010). Is physical water scarcity a new phenomenon? Global assessment of water shortage over the last two millennia. Environmental Research Letters, 5(3), DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/5/3/034006 MAPPING AND MODELLING
ECOSYSTEM SERVICES
Quantification, mapping and valuation
of ecosystem service demand and
supply are essential to operationalize
the ecosystem service concept
Ecosystem Services have received
increasing attention from both scientists
and policy makers as a means to
address the multiple benefits received
from our environment. It is a common
challenge to incorporate the concept of
ecosystem services into environmental
management strategies and operational
policy. To meet this challenge, new
methods to monitor, quantify and valuate
ecosystem services are needed. In
addition, assessments of ecosystem
Cultural service based
on landscape features
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services must be incorporated in
scenario studies to explore the future
dynamics under changing policy
conditions. The Department aims at
preparing a tool box for the mapping
and quantification of ecosystem service
provision making use of a thorough
understanding of ecological processes,
both in terrestrial and marine
environments. Such information is of
importance for the valuation of these
services. The Department contributes
to several projects in which, together
with environmental economists, new
approaches to valuation of ecosystem
services are explored.
Insights are used to inform policy
design, schemes for PES (payments
for environmental services), multifunctional land use strategies and rural
development.
Cultural service based
on structure and
composition of the
landscape
High
High
Low
Low
Verburg, P.H., Koomen,E., Hilferink, M., Pérez-Soba, M. & Lesschen, J.P. (2012). An assessment of the impact of climate adaptation measures to reduce flood risk on ecosystem services. Landscape Ecology. 27(4): 473-486. DOI:/10.1007/s10980-012-9715-6
Vermaat, J. & Hellmann, F. (2010). Covariance in water- and nutrient budgets of Dutch peat polders: what governs nutrient retention? Biogeochemistry, 99, 109-126, DOI: 10.1007/s10533-009-9395-8
Eleveld, M. A. (2012). Wind-induced resuspension in a shallow lake from Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) Full Resolution reflectances. Water Resources Research 48, W04508, DOI: 10.1029/2011WR011121
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LAND USE MODELLING
Land use change occurs at the
interface of human and natural
systems, being both a cause and
effect of changes in socio-ecological
systems
Land use change is the result of
many interacting processes across
multiple scales involving different
economic sectors and a wide variation
of actors. Different land uses may lead
to competing claims given that land
Urbanisation
Agricultural expansion
Agricultural land abandonment
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is a limited resource. Policy and land
use planning should aim at enhancing
the synergies between different land
uses and carefully addressing the
trade-offs between different choices.
The Department aims at improving
the overall understanding of land use
change using a spatial, multi-sectoral
perspective across multiple spatial
and temporal scales. Spatial models
for simulating scenarios of land use
change are developed and applied.
Models range from agent-based models
at local scales to integrated models of
land use system change at continental
to global scales. Models are used to
test hypotheses of land use transitions,
evaluate integrative scenarios and
make ex-ante assessment of specific
policies, including agricultural policy
reform or biofuel policies. Researchers
of the Department have developed the
CLUE (including CLUE-s, CLUE-Scanner
and Dyna-CLUE) model that is one of
the best-known operational land use
models and widely-used throughout the
world. Besides land cover change the
CLUE model is capable of addressing
dynamics in livestock distribution,
agricultural intensity, forest dynamics,
urbanization and land functions.
Van Berkel, D. & Verburg, P.H. (2012). Planning for multifunctionality: using an agent-
based model to support participatory policy design. Landscape Ecology. DOI:10.1007/
s10980-012-9730-7
Letourneau A., Verburg P.H & Stehfest E. (2012). A land-use systems approach to represent land-use dynamics at continental and global scales. Environmental Modelling and Software. 33, 61-79. DOI:10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.01.007
Hellmann F. & Verburg P.H. (2011). Spatially explicit modelling of biofuel crops in Europe. Biomass and Bioenergy 35: 2411-2424. DOI: 10.1016/j.biombioe.2008.09.003
Verburg P.H., Neumann K. & Nol L. (2011). Challenges in using land use and land cover data for global change studies. Global Change Biology 17(2): 974-989. DOI:10.1111/j.1365-
2486.2010.02307.x
DECISION SUPPORT TOOLS
The ultimate objective of spatial decision
support is to make sure that the best
possible plan is produced in a way that
best suits all stakeholders involved.
In practical terms, the best plan makes
optimal use of the information available,
and has the largest possible support
of the stakeholders. Because the
information load is high, spatial decision
support should complement design by
the landscape architects. Important
issues are: fragmentation, landscape
patterns, spatial design algorithms,
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and evaluation under uncertainty. The
communication of scientific findings
to policy makers and the discussion
of alternative management strategies
and land use planning require
techniques that allow the involvement of
stakeholders. Within the Department,
different techniques and tools are
evaluated that support such stakeholder
dialogue. These include the use of spatial
multicriteria analysis on an interactive
‘touch table’ to support spatial planning;
the use of photorealistic landscape
scenarios for participatory workshops
on rural development options and a
contribution to a European discussion
support system for rural areas.
Stewart, T. J., Joubert, A., & Janssen, R. (2010). MCDM Framework for fishing rights allocation in South Africa, Group Decision and Negotiation, 19 (3),247-265. DOI: 10.1007/
s10726-009-9159-9
Janssen, R., Verhoeven, J. T. A., Arciniegas, G., & Riet, B. v. (in press 2012). Spatial evaluation of ecological qualities to support interactive design of land use plans, Environment and Planning B: planning and design Van Berkel D.B., Ribeiro S.C, Verburg P.H. & Lovett, A. (2011). Identifying assets and constraints for rural development with qualitative scenarios: A case study of Castro Laboreiro, Portugal. Landscape and Urban Planning 102(2), 127-141. DOI: 10.1016/j.
landurbplan.2011.03.016
INTERNATIONAL LEADERSHIP
The Department chairs, under the overall
auspices of the Earth System Science
Partnership, the Global Land Project.
The Project has evolved into the largest
network in the field of Land Science.
In addition, the Department is a core
member of Alternet (Europe’s biodiversity
research network), the Ecosystem
Service Partnership, and the European
Land Use Institute. Within Amsterdam
the Department collaborates within the
Amsterdam Global Change Institute.
COMMITMENT TO TEACHING
The Department is highly active
in several teaching programmes,
especially IVM’s multidisciplinary
MSc ‘Environment and Resource
Management’ and the BSc and MSc in
Earth Sciences and Economics.
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SPATIAL Analysis AND
DECISION SUPPORT
http://www.ivm.vu.nl/SPACE
Department of IVM, Institute for
Environmental Studies
VU University Amsterdam
De Boelelaan 1085 (visiting address)
De Boelelaan 1087 (postal address)
1081 HV Amsterdam
The Netherlands
t +31-20-5989 555
f +31-20-5989 553
e info@ivm.vu.nl
i www.ivm.vu.nl
Head of Department:
Prof. Dr. Ir. Peter H. Verburg
22102 - Studio VU
INFORMATION AND CONTACT