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FIGURES
Figure 1.1 Support for alternative approaches to military manpower
procurement ...................................................... 7
Figure 1.2 Number of conscripts vs. opt out requests lodged, 1989-19998
Figure 1.3 Conscripts and objectors by region of origin and education
level ............................................................ 9
Figure 1.4 Projections for selected military-age youth cohorts...... 10
Figure 1.5 The overall transition plan up to 2020................... 11
Figure 1.6 Evolution of the Army’s personnel mix, 1990-2000......... 12
Figure 2.1 Low- and High-quality supply curves as functions of wages 18
Figure 2.2 Joint VFB recruiting contests, 1998-1999................. 28
Figure 2.3 Recruitment patterns by post-first-term career choice, 199929
Figure 2.4 Recruitment process leaks: Marshals contest, 2000-2001... 31
Figure 3.1 Career progression between different personnel categories 39
Figure 3.2 Retention for VFBs....................................... 43
Figure 3.3 NCO Losses by YOS cohort, January-October 2000........... 44
Figure 3.4 Active-duty before-tax pay (basic, IIS, IAPM, IIO)....... 45
Figure 3.5 Elements of pay contingent on YOS........................ 46
Figure 3.6 Earnings profile for different VSP/S career tracks....... 49
Figure 3.7 Earnings profile for different Marshal career tracks..... 50
Figure 4.1 Input substitution options............................... 57
Figure 4.2 Army career vs. short-term mix, 1990-2000 and 2020....... 65
Figure 4.3 Personnel categories as % of Army volunteer enlisted/NCO
force ........................................................... 66
Figure 4.4 Army enlisted and NCO YOS distribution................... 67
Figure 4.5 YOS distributions VFA/VFBs............................... 68
Figure 4.6 YOS Distribution: VSPs................................... 69
Figure 4.7 YOS Distribution: NCOs................................... 70
Figure 4.8 Functional specialties: share by personnel category...... 71
Figure 4.9 Additional data on VSP/VFB specialization................ 72
Figure 5.1 Aggregate and specific measures of effectiveness......... 83
Figure 5.2 VFBs to Marshals: Approximation of target YOS profile for
VFBs, VSPs and Sergeants ........................................ 88
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Figure 5.3 Sample scorecard......................................... 91
Figure 5.4 The impact of using different scaling functions.......... 93
Figure 6.1 Map of basic stock-flow structure for the VSP2 grade..... 97
Figure 6.2 Timing of flows.......................................... 98
Figure 6.3 Arrayed YIG Stock....................................... 100
Figure 6.4 Transition between arrayed stocks....................... 100
Figure 6.5 Sample transition matrix................................ 100
Figure 6.6 Cross-Array Transition Matrix........................... 101
Figure 6.7 Multiple flows into stock D............................. 101
Figure 7.1 Base Case (Strategy 1): Overall size by category........ 110
Figure 7.2 Active-duty personnel costs (base case)................. 111
Figure 7.3 Junior enlisted composition (VFAs, VFBs, Renewals)...... 112
Figure 7.4 VSP YOS Distribution (base case)........................ 113
Figure 7.5 Sergeant YOS Distribution (base case)................... 113
Figure 7.6 Marshal YOS Distribution (base case).................... 113
Figure 7.7 VSP YOS mix by age group (base case).................... 115
Figure 7.8 Sergeant YOS mix by age group (base case)............... 115
Figure 7.9 Marshal YOS mix by age group (base case)................ 115
Figure 7.10 VSP grade share (base case)............................ 117
Figure 7.11 Sergeant grade share (base case)....................... 117
Figure 7.12 Marshal grade share (base case)........................ 117
Figure 7.13 VFB promotions to VSP as a % of eligible (base case)... 119
Figure 7.14 VSP promotions to M and S as a % of eligible (base case)119
Figure 7.15 M4 promotions as a % of M3 (base case)................. 119
Figure 7.16 VSP grade share (early steady state scenario).......... 121
Figure 7.17 VSP YOS mix by age group (early steady state scenario). 121
Figure 7.18 Promotions from S1 from VSP2, 3, and 4 (early steady state
scenario) ...................................................... 121
Figure 8.1 VFB to S and Marshals ideal YOS profiles................ 125
Figure 8.2 Evolution of VFA to S YOS profile for each strategy..... 130
Figure 8.3 VFB to VSP promotions, as % of those eligible........... 131
Figure 8.4 M3 to M4 promotions, as a % of those eligible........... 132
Figure 8.5 Active-duty personnel costs............................. 132
Figure 8.6 Personnel costs, lower separation bonus................. 133
Figure 8.7 Personnel costs, higher separation bonus................ 133
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Figure 8.8 Scorecard hierarchy..................................... 134
Figure 8.9 VFA to Sergeants scorecard.............................. 137
Figure 8.10 Rank Sheet summary for the VFA to Sergeants scorecard.. 138
Figure 8.11 Result Sheet summary for the VFA to Sergeants scorecard 139
Figure 8.12 Marshals scorecard..................................... 140
Figure 8.13 Rank Sheet summary for the Marshals scorecard.......... 141
Figure 8.14 Result Sheet summary for the Marshals scorecard........ 142
Figure 8.15 Aggregate scorecard (effectiveness and costs).......... 142
Figure 8.16 Rank Sheet summary for overall scorecard: by effectiveness
............................................................... 143
Figure 8.17 Rank Sheet summary for overall scorecard: by costeffectiveness (ES multiplier: 15%) ............................. 144
Figure 8.18 Results Sheet summary for overall scorecard............ 144
Figure 9.1 Hypothetical vs. current steady-state: active-duty costs 150
Figure 9.2 Hypothetical vs. current steady-state: total costs
(15% separation multiplier) .................................... 150