Applying a Planning Tool for the
Louisiana Coastal Master Plan
David Groves, Ph.D.
Christopher Sharon, M.Phil.
Debra Knopman, Ph.D.
State of the Coast Conference
www.stateofthecoast.org
New Orleans, Louisiana
June 26, 2012
For More Information….
B  Louisiana’s 2012 Coastal Master Plan
–  www.coastalmasterplan.louisiana.gov/
B  Technical Documentation of the Planning Tool
–  http://www.lacpra.org/assets/docs/2012%20Master%20Plan/Final
%20Plan/appendices/FINAL-Appendix-EPlanningToolFINAL_2012_03_28-topost.pdf
Groves-2 Jun-2012
Presentation Outline
B  Planning Challenge
B  CPRA Planning Tool
B  Use of Planning Tool to Support Master Plan
Groves-3 Jun-2012
CPRA’s Louisiana Coastal Master Plan Seeks
Coastal Sustainability …
Flood Risk Reduction
Restoration
Groves-4 Jun-2012
… While Balancing Diverse Objectives
Decision Criteria and Ecosystem Services
Distribution of flood risk
across socioeconomic groups
Flood protection of historic
properties
Flood protection of strategic
assets
Operation and maintenance
costs
Sustainability
Support for navigation
Use of natural processes
Support for cultural heritage
Support for oil & gas
Oyster
Shrimp
Freshwater Availability
Alligator
Waterfowl
Saltwater Fisheries
Freshwater Fisheries
Carbon Sequestration
Nitrogen Removal
Agriculture/Aquaculture
Other Coastal Wildlife
Nature-Based Tourism
Groves-5 Jun-2012
Master Plan Considered Hundreds of Different
Projects to Address Flood Risk and Land Loss
Nonstructural
Measures
Groves-6 Jun-2012
Models Used To Evaluate Projects
Generated Significant Amounts of Data
Groves-7 Jun-2012
Uncertainty About Future Conditions Yielded
Different Predictions of Project Effects
Scenarios Describe Different Plausible Future Conditions
Groves-8 Jun-2012
There is No Optimal Solution—Important
Tradeoffs Must Be Made
B  Risk reduction
B  Restoration
B  Use of river
B  Maintenance of
B  Near term
B  Long term
diversions
.
benefits
current salinity
gradients
sustainability
Groves-9 Jun-2012
The CPRA Planning Tool Was Developed to
Support the Formulation of the Master Plan
•  RAND Gulf States Policy Institute
•  Master Plan Delivery Team members
–  CPRA
–  University of New Orleans
–  Brown and Caldwell
Groves-10 Jun-2012
The Planning Tool Is a Computer-Based
Decision Support Tool
1.  Compares and ranks
individual
projects
New Orleans
2.  Develops different
CPRA
Planning Tool
combinations of projects
for comprehensive
strategy
3.  Uses interactive
visualizations to display
tradeoffs and support
decisionmaking
Groves-11 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Evaluates Hundreds of
Restoration and Risk Reduction Projects
43 Sediment diversion
101 Marsh creation
96 Other restoration
34 Structural risk reduction
112 Non-structural risk reduction
Implementing all
projects would
cost more than
$200 billion
Groves-12 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Compares Individual Projects
-- Risk Reduction Cost Effectiveness --
Structural Project
Non-Structural Project
Groves-13 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Compares Individual Projects
-- Near and Long Term Land --
Near Term Land (Year 20)
Groves-14 Jun-2012
Long Term Land
(Year 50)
Planning Tool Compares Individual Projects
-- Effects on Ecosystem Services -Example: Upper Breton Diversion 250,000 cfs
Alligator
Carbon
Sequestration
Coastal
Wildlife
Freshwater
Availability
Freshwater Nature Based
Fisheries
Tourism
Oysters
Saltwater
Fisheries
Shrimp
Storm Surge/
Waves
Waterfowl
Crawfish
Upper Pontchartrain
Mid Pontchartrain
Lower Pontchartrain
Upper Barataria
Lower Barataria
Groves-15 Jun-2012
Birdsfoot Delta
Planning Tool Assembles Different Project
Combinations to Meet Louisiana’s Objectives
B  Uses constrained mixed integer
program to select combinations of
projects that maximize land building
and risk reduction
Risk Reduction
Objective Function
Land Area
Groves-16 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Assembles Different Project
Combinations to Meet Louisiana’s Objectives
B  Choices are constrained by funding,
available sediment, and river flow
Groves-17 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Assembles Different Project
Combinations to Meet Louisiana’s Objectives
B  Combinations balance ecosystem health,
navigation, and other coastal interests
Coastal habitats
Decision Criteria
Groves-18 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Analysis Based on
Few Key Assumptions
B  Individual project effects are additive
B  Risk reduction projects affect flood risk only
B  Restoration projects affect land and ecosystem
metrics only
Analysis in progress relaxes these assumptions
by modeling the Master Plan as a single
comprehensive project
Groves-19 Jun-2012
Example: Which Projects Should Louisiana Choose
to Maximize Land Building and Risk Reduction?
12 Sediment diversion
25 Marsh creation
52 Other restoration
15 Structural risk reduction
33 Non-structural risk reduction
$
$50 billion
budget
Groves-20 Jun-2012
Restoration Projects Would Lead to
Significant Increases in Land
5,000
Maximize land
building
Total land
in coastal
study 4,500
area
(square
miles)
4,000
2012
2021
2031
2041
Year
2051
Do nothing
(future without
2061 action)
Groves-21 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Used To Formulate Master Plan
in Iterative Sequence of Steps
1.  Compare
Individual
Projects
Develop
Alternatives
2.  Formulate
Alternatives
3.  Define Draft
Revised
instructions
Master Plan
4.  Define Final
Master Plan
Planning
Team and
stakeholders
Planning
Tool Team
Interactive
visualizations
Deliberate
over
tradeoffs
Groves-22 Jun-2012
Explored Funding Scenarios and Allocation Between
Risk Reduction and Restoration Projects
Long Term
Land
Building
(relative to
current
levels)
Long Term Risk Reduction
Groves-23 Jun-2012
Evaluated Balance Between Near Term and
Long Term Benefits
Groves-24 Jun-2012
Compared Alternatives Effects on
Land Area
Groves-25 Jun-2012
Land Area Effect of Alternative by Year 50 (sq km)
Compared Alternatives Effects on
Decision Criteria
Increasing navigation
decision criteria has
minimal effects on
land initially
1800
1600
Max Land
1400
1200
Significant decline in land
building as navigation decision
criterion score is increased further
1000
800
600
-2.5
-2
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
Supports Navigation
Groves-26 Jun-2012
Land Area Effect of Alternative by Year 50 (sq km)
Compared Alternatives Effects on
Ecosystem Metrics
1,750
1,700
Max Land
1,650
1,600
1,550
1,500
1,450
41,000
Decline in land building as
the amount of potential
shrimp habitat is
increased
42,000
43,000
44,000
45,000
46,000
47,000
48,000
Suitability for Shrimp Habitat (Index)
49,000
50,000
51,000
Groves-27 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Developed Draft Alternative
for the Draft Master Plan (January 2012)
B  Identified risk
reduction and
restoration
projects
B  Broad Project
implementation
schedule
B  Estimated
combined effect
of all projects
Groves-28 Jun-2012
Planning Tool Evaluated Public Comments to
Develop Final Master Plan (April 2012)
B  Example: Lake Charles Levee was included
in draft master plan and was of concern
–  Planning Tool showed that eliminating it would increase
risk too much
–  Instead, final plan defers construction until later years to
permit additional study
Increased risk w/o levee
Groves-29 Jun-2012
CPRA Planning Tool Summary Workbook
Presents Results from Analyses
B  Interactive results presented B  Public version of the
in Tableau visualization
environment
summary workbook to be
available soon
Groves-30 Jun-2012