OUTPUT ADDITIONALITY OF PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR INNOVATION: EVIDENCE FOR IRISH MANUFACTURING PLANTS Working Paper No. 103 June 2009 Nola Hewitt-Dundas and Stephen Roper Warwick Business School’s Small and Medium Sized Enterprise Centre Working Papers are produced in order to make available to a wider public, research results obtained by its research staff. The Director of the CSME, Professor Stephen Roper, is the Editor of the Series. Any enquiries concerning the research undertaken within the Centre should be addressed to: The Director CSME Warwick Business School University of Warwick Coventry CV4 7AL e-mail stephen.roper@wbs.ac.uk Tel. 024 76 522501 ISSN 0964-9328 – CSME WORKING PAPERS Details of papers in this series may be requested from: The Publications Secretary CSME Warwick Business School, University of Warwick, Coventry CV4 7AL e-mail sharon.west@wbs.ac.uk Tel. 024 76 523692 1 Output Additionality of Public Support for Innovation: Evidence for Irish Manufacturing Plants Nola Hewitt-Dundasa and Stephen Roperb a b Queen's University Management School, Queen‟s University Belfast, Belfast Centre for Small and Medium Sized Enterprises, Warwick Business School, Warwick Corresponding Author: Nola Hewitt-Dundas, Queen‟s University Management School, 25 University Square, Belfast, UK BT7 1NN E-mail: nm.hewitt@qub.ac.uk Tel: +44 (0) 2890 975155; Fax: +44 (0) 2890 975156 Acknowledgements The authors wish to acknowledge the valuable comments received from delegates at the 5th British/Irish and Israeli Regional Science workshop - Pushing forward the Frontiers, and the Higher Education Authority, Ireland for providing financial support for this research. 2 Abstract Public support for private R&D and innovation is part of most national and regional innovation support regimes. In this paper we estimate the effect of public innovation support on innovation outputs in Ireland and Northern Ireland. Three dimensions of output additionality are considered: extensive additionality, in which public support encourages a larger proportion of the population of firms to innovate; improved product additionality in which there is an increase in the average importance of incremental innovation; and, new product additionality in which there is an increase in the average importance of more radical innovation. Using an instrumental variables approach, our results are generally positive, with public support for innovation having positive, and generally significant, extensive, improved and new product additionality effects. These results hold both for all plants and indigenously-owned plants, a specific target of policy in both jurisdictions. The suggestion is that grant-aid to firms can be effective in both encouraging firms to initiate new innovation and improve the quality and sophistication of their innovation activity. Our results also emphasise the importance for innovation of in-house R&D, supply-chain linkages, skill levels, and capital investment all of which may be the focus of complementary policy initiatives. Keywords: Innovation, policy, additionality, evaluation, Ireland JEL Codes: O38, O31, H25, L60 3 Output Additionality of Public Support for Innovation: Evidence for Irish Manufacturing Plants 1. Introduction Recent reviews of innovation policy regimes in different countries, have emphasised the wide variety of approaches being used to support firms‟ innovation activity. EU (2003), for example, suggests that the budget allocation for innovation support in the UK mirrors relatively closely that in the US, with support balanced roughly equally between fiscal incentives for innovation, subsidy measures and „integrated packages of support‟. Other countries adopt different approaches with Finland emphasising direct support measures (subsidies and loans), and France placing more emphasis on direct credit and loan support1. In each case, however, grant-based incentives to support R&D and innovation remain important, particularly as a means of stimulating innovative activity among smaller firms, those innovating for the first time or those in more rural or peripheral areas (Oughton et al., 2002). This reflects general arguments that these types of firms are likely to be the most resource constrained. Or, that such firms are more likely than most to experience market failures in terms of, say, the availability of finance for innovation (e.g. Martin and Scott, 2000)2. 1 In the UK, for example, 29 per cent of the innovation budget comprises subsidy or grant schemes compared to 22 per cent in the Netherlands, 25 per cent in France, 47 per cent in Finland and 42 per cent in the US. New Zealand is a marked exception with almost no innovation grants and innovation support offered primarily through fiscal measures (EU, 2003, Table 5). 2 For a more general discussion of the market failure justification for innovation policy see, for example, Metcalfe (1997). 4 Support for the value of public investment in this area comes from a number of studies which suggest a degree of additionality from public support for private R&D activity and positive effects on business performance (e.g. Griliches, 1995; Mamuneas and Nadiri, 1996)3. This effect can operate through a number of different organisational mechanisms, however (Roper et al., 2004). First, and most obviously, public support for private R&D may reduce the cost to firms of building up their knowledge stocks (e.g. Trajtenberg, 2000), enhancing business performance (Klette and Johansen, 1998) and firms‟ ability to conduct future research projects (e.g. Mansfield and Switzer, 1984; Luukkonen, 2000)4. Second, public support for R&D activity may contribute to developments in firms‟ human resources and innovation activity (e.g. Freel, 2005)5. Third, public support for R&D or innovation may improve firms' ability to absorb R&D results or knowledge from elsewhere (Veugelers and Cassiman, 1999; Cassiman and Veugelers, 2002)6. Fourth, reputational or 'halo' effects may also stem from receipt of public R&D support7. Fifth, public funding of 3 This clearly depends on the extent of additionality in publicly financed, private R&D, on which see Griliches (1995). Interestingly, for the US, Mamuneas and Nadiri (1996) identify some differences between sectors in this respect, finding a substitute relationship in low technology industries and a weak substitute relationship in high-tech sectors. Thus there is evidence of some crowding-out, particularly in the low-tech sectors. See also Goolsbee (1998), David et al. (2000). 4 Luukkonen (2000) also indicates that participation in the collaborative EU Framework programmes by Finnish firms laid the basis for future R&D by contributing to firms' involvement and influence in standards negotiations, viz. participation 'provided background information for standardisation negotiations … [and] … facilitated their contacts, since the experts of the companies could get better acquainted with each other, which again helped their interactions. It was a question of an intangible impact' (p. 716) 5 Sakakibara (1997) p. 462, for example, indicates that the managers of publicly supported collaborative R&D projects in Japan rated researcher training as the most important benefit which their companies derived from their project. Somewhat surprisingly, this 'intangible' benefit from collaborative R&D was seen as more important than 'increase in the awareness of R&D in general', 'breakthrough in a critical technology', and 'accelerated development of the technology'. 6 More specific evidence of the complementarity of publicly supported R&D and firms' other internally-funded R&D activity comes from Ballesteros and Rico (2001). They conduct an econometric analysis of the Spanish 'Concerted Projects' support scheme and demonstrate that Spanish firms which were more R&D intensive were also more likely to make use of government funding for collaborative university-business R&D projects. 7 Powell (1998), for example, points out, in the context of R&D collaboration in technology intensive industries, that 'a firm's portfolio of collaborations is both a resource and a signal to markets, as well as to other potential partners, of the quality of the firm's activities and product'. (p.231). 5 R&D may also create the potential for R&D cost savings through collaborative R&D and the sharing of research results8. A key issue, regardless of which of these mechanisms predominates, is the extent to which any increment in R&D or innovation activity is „additional‟, i.e. generates a positive and significant average treatment effect (ATE). In terms of public support for innovation, however, it is arguable whether any single ATE estimate can capture the range of possible impacts. Public support for innovation may, for example, encourage firms to both commence innovation activity and increase the scale of their innovation investments. To capture this potential range of effects we estimate three notions of the additionality of public support for innovation outputs: extensive additionality represented by the ATE on the probability of undertaking innovation; improved product additionality represented by the ATE of public support on firms‟ incremental innovation; and, new product additionality represented by the ATE of public support for innovation on firms‟ radical innovation. Our estimation approach – enabled by the availability of suitable instruments – follows an instrumental variables approach. The remainder of the paper is organised as follows. Section 2 outlines the economic and policy setting for our analysis which focuses on the impact of public support for innovation in Ireland and Northern Ireland over the 1994 to 2002 period. This is important in the context of the current paper both because our key focus is on the effectiveness of policy intervention but also because systemic approaches to innovation stress the importance of the historical, economic and institutional context 8 Irwin and Klenow (1996), for example, examined the Sematech collaborative R&D facility, set up by the US semiconductor industry in 1987 with substantial financial support from government. They compared the R&D intensity of Sematech member and non-member companies, and conclude that participation in the Sematech collaboration reduced members' R&D spending by 9 per cent. 6 within which innovation takes place (e.g. Edquist, 2004). Section 3 outlines our conceptual approach reflecting plants‟ decision to proceed with an innovation project. Section 4 describes our data sources and empirical methodology, and Section 5 summarises our empirical results. Conclusions and implications are the focus of Section 6. 2. Economic and Policy Context Over the period considered here (1994 to 2002), Ireland and Northern Ireland experienced very different patterns of economic growth, suggesting marked changes in the market incentives for investing in R&D and innovation9. In Ireland – the Celtic Tiger – GDP grew by an average of 7.2 per cent per year from 1990 to 2000, while real GNP grew by 6.3 per cent per year, largely due to continued inward investment and re-investment in the high-tech sectors10. For Northern Ireland, the 1990s was marked by more steady output growth of 3.2 per cent per year from 1990 to 1998, but this still compared favourably to growth rates in the UK (2.1 per cent pa) and EU (1.8 per cent pa) during the same period. (e.g. Morahan, 2002) 11. From 2000 to 2002, the economic situation looked very different, however, with manufacturing output actually falling in Northern Ireland, while the rate of growth of output in Ireland slowed considerably. Our study period was also marked by significant changes in R&D and innovation policy in both Northern Ireland and Ireland, although in both areas the innovation policy regime remained strongly interventionist, justified in terms of broadly defined 9 For a detailed comparison see O‟Malley and Roper, 2004. GDP is conventionally used in making international comparisons. However, in the case of the Republic of Ireland GNP is generally regarded as more meaningful, since it excludes the substantial profits of foreign multinational companies that are withdrawn from the country. 11 UK and EU data from OECD Historical Statistics 1970-1999. 10 7 economic development objectives12. In Ireland, for example, the landmark Culliton Report of 1992, argued that “without state support and incentives the degree of investment in technology will be less than is desirable from the point of view of national economic development” (Industrial Policy Review Group, 1992, p. 55). Essentially similar policy rationales were evident in Northern Ireland, with both government reports (e.g. IRTU, 1992) and academic studies (e.g. Harris and Trainor, 1995) reflecting low levels of R&D and innovation and the perceived need for public intervention. EU Objective 1 status – which benefited both Ireland and Northern Ireland throughout most of the period considered here - was also an important influence in the support regime for innovation in both areas. In Ireland, for example, the Operational Programme for Industrial Development, 1989-93 provided funding for capability development, while the subsequent 1994-99 Operational Programme had a specific sub-programme for research and development13. In Northern Ireland too, EU funding was an important component of public support for R&D and innovation, directly funding infrastructure projects as well as providing co-funding for a number of regional innovation support programmes14. Developments in R&D and innovation support later in the 1990s continued the focus on developing innovation capability in 12 Although see Lenihan, Hart and Roper (2005) on the ambiguity of objectives of much Irish industrial policy and consequent difficulties in ex post evaluation. 13 Cogan and McDevitt (2000: 11) describe EU involvement in R&D in Ireland as having been of „critical importance‟ to Irish S&T policy. They describe three benefits of the EU involvement. Firstly, they cite the organisational and institutional learning it engendered. They state, rather philosophically, that Ireland missed out on the industrial revolution and somehow expected to catch up with other nations by using imported innovation and without building up a domestic innovation and R&D capability. Secondly, the EU structural funds brought with it a disciplined evaluation of policy, something which was missing from policy prior to this. Thirdly, rather than concentrating on research that had little bearing on Irish industry, the Structural Funds were geared towards stimulating a selfsustaining capacity for innovation. 14 See, for example, Roper (1998) on Compete and Roper (2001) for a more detailed overview of the innovation support regime in Northern Ireland. 8 indigenously-owned firms. In Ireland, the RTDI scheme was launched in 1997, for example, with wide ranging objectives one of which was to introduce firms to R&D and innovation for the first time15. A similar emphasis has also characterised policy priorities in innovation support in Northern Ireland, with a focus on encouraging firms to engage in R&D and innovation for the first time. The Compete programme, for example, which provides support for near-market innovation „has always attracted significant interest from companies engaging in R&D for the first time and 54 per cent of … applications to the programme were first time users‟ (Invest NI, 2003, p. 4). Changes in the innovation support regimes of Ireland and Northern Ireland, and their increasing focus on developing innovation capacity in indigenously-owned firms, were also reflected in changes in the overall levels of government investment in R&D and innovation support. In Ireland, government support for R&D and innovation activity grew steadily through the 1990s from €5 m pa to around € 30 m pa (Figure 1), while that in Northern Ireland remained relatively stable at an annual overall level of around €25 m pa. ---Figure 1 here --This changing economic and policy context has important implications for our assessment of the effectiveness of innovation support measures. First, spatial differences in the economic and policy context in Ireland and Northern Ireland suggest the potential importance of allowing for location in our modelling strategy. Second, the priority given to supporting innovation in particular groups of firms, e.g. those engaging in R&D or innovation for the first time, is likely to introduce a 15 Following some institutional changes in 1998, the RTI scheme was implemented through Enterprise Ireland, the agency specifically charged with developing the capacity of indigenous Irish firms. 9 potential bias into OLS estimates of the ATE suggesting the value of an instrumental variables approach (e.g. Madalla, 1993; Wooldridge, 2002). This is therefore explicitly allowed for in our modelling approach. Third, the focus of innovation support policy in Ireland and Northern Ireland on indigenously-owned firms suggests this group may be of particular interest in assessing policy additionality. 3. Conceptual Framework Our objective here is to develop a framework within which the firm-level additionality of public support for innovation can be examined. This may involve the decision of a plant either to abandon, go ahead with, or modify its innovation investment decisions in the light of the availability of public support. Focussing specifically on product innovation, three dimensions of additionality are considered: extensive additionality, in which a larger proportion of the population of plants are innovating; improved product additionality in which there is an increase in the average importance of incremental innovation; and, new product additionality in which there is an increase in the average importance of radical innovation. In each case the availability of public support for innovation might positively influence the innovation decision by either changing the balance of costs and anticipated revenue from innovation or by reducing either the technical or commercial risk. Standard optimising conditions (see, for example, Levin and Reiss, 1994) would then suggest that public support for innovation should have positive extensive, improved and new product additionality effects16. To evaluate the empirical significance of this proposition for public support for innovation in Ireland and Northern Ireland we make use of the now familiar notion of 16 This is consistent with the broad empirical evidence reviewed by Griliches (1995). 10 an innovation or knowledge production function (e.g. Geroski, 1990; Harris and Trainor, 1995; Love and Roper, 2001). This relates innovation outputs of various sorts to knowledge inputs with the argument here being that, where it generates additionality, public support for innovation will increase innovation outputs given any level of innovation costs and benefits. In other words, if I is an indicator of plants‟ innovation output, the innovation production function can be stated as: I x 'z (1) where x is a vector of plant level control variables, and z is a binary treatment variable taking value 1 if a firm received public support for innovation and 0 otherwise. In this model the size, sign and significance of the coefficient on the treatment term (i.e. ) will give an indication of the additionality of public support. More specifically we consider here three variants of equation (1) each of which relates to one of the notions of additionality defined earlier. To examine the notion of extensive additionality we consider a version of (1) in which the dependent variable is a simple binary indicator of whether or not firms are undertaking innovation. Here, the question is whether public support for innovation has significantly increased the probability that a firm will be engaging in either improved or new product innovation. To examine improved product additionality and new product additionality we consider models in which the dependent variables reflect the importance of improved products and new products in plants‟ sales. In each case additionality requires public support to be having a positive and significant effect on plants‟ sales of either improved or new products. In addition to the treatment terms we include in each model a set of plant-level controls comprising three groups of variables which have been shown to be important in other studies of innovation activity. These relate to plants‟ knowledge sourcing 11 activity, their market position and their resource base. Measuring the intensity of plants‟ knowledge sourcing through R&D is relatively straightforward with standard indicators (used by Crépon et al., (1998), Lööf and Heshmati (2001, 2002), and Love and Roper (2001)) measuring R&D employment relative to total employment. Measuring the intensity of knowledge sourcing through plants‟ supply-chain and non supply-chain innovation linkages is more experimental, and here we follow Love and Roper (1999, 2001) who develop intensity scores for the extent of plants‟ external contacts17. Market position indicators include a size variable (employment) and its square, reflecting the frequent finding of a quadratic relationship between size and innovation, and dummy variable indicators reflecting the nature of plants‟ production process (i.e. small batches, large batches or continuous production). The strength of each plant‟s internal resource base is proxied by a variety of measures, including whether or not the plant is part of a multi-plant group, whether it is externally owned and whether there is any R&D relevant to the plant carried out elsewhere within the group. These measures of intra-group resources have proved important in previous research on innovation (Love et al., 1996; Love and Roper, 1999, 2001). Indicators of human capital and physical capital inputs are also included (percentage of workforce with a degree and percentage with no qualifications; capital investment relative to turnover). 4. Data and Methods 17 More specifically, we construct intensity scores for each plant‟s knowledge sourcing through supplychain and non supply-chain collaboration based on the number of types of organisation with which the firm is undertaking collaborative innovation activity. For example, we identify five types of potential supply-chain partners (customers, suppliers, competitors, other group companies and joint ventures): plants undertaking innovation collaboration with three of these types of partner 'score' 60 per cent; plants collaborating with all five types of partner score 100 per cent. 12 Our empirical analysis is based on data from the Irish Innovation Panel (IIP) which provides information on knowledge use, government support and the innovation performance of manufacturing plants throughout the Ireland and Northern Ireland over the period since 1991. The IIP comprises linked surveys conducted using similar postal survey methodologies, sampling frames provided by the economic development agencies in Ireland and Northern Ireland, and questionnaires with common questions. Each survey covers the innovation activities of manufacturing plants with 10 or more employees over a three year period with an average response rate of 34.5 per cent18. In the current analysis to allow greater variable choice, we use data only from the second, third and fourth surveys. Reflecting the dimensions of additionality discussed earlier three innovation output indicators are of interest here: the probability that a plant introduced either new or improved products over the previous three years; the importance of new and improved products in plants‟ sales; and, the proportion of new products in plants‟ sales. The former is intended to reflect the additional effect of public support on incremental innovation, and the latter more radical product change. Over the sample period (1994 to 2004), 56.4 per cent of plants introduced either new or improved products in Northern Ireland (Ireland, 62.4 per cent), while 12.5 per cent of sales were accounted for by new products and 25.7 per cent (Ireland, 29.0 per cent) by new and improved products (Annex 1). Over the same period 23.1 per cent of plants in Northern Ireland received public support for their product development activities compared to 25.6 per cent in Ireland (Annex 1). In each case we are interested in estimating the average treatment effect, but recognise that there are likely to be aspects of selectivity in the receipt of public 18 Details of each wave of the survey can be found in Roper et al. (1996), Roper and Hewitt-Dundas (1998), Roper and Anderson (2000), Roper et al., 2004). 13 support. In other words, as the previous discussion suggested, public support for innovation may be targeted specifically at smaller plants, or those which are innovating for the first time. In addition, it is possible that elements of endogeneity may exist in plants‟ receipt of public support. If development agencies adopt a „backing winners‟ strategy for example, innovating plants may be more likely than non-innovators to receive public support. In either situation direct estimation of the treatment effect is likely to lead to biased estimates of the scale of the treatment effect (see Maddala, 1993, pp. 257-290 for a general discussion). In the estimation we therefore adopt an instrumental variables approach, instrumenting plants‟ receipt of public support for product development by their receipt of support for process development, R&D and capital investment (Annex 1). In each model instruments are chosen to comply with the ignorability assumption with the exogeneity of instruments being verified by a Wald test. Models were estimated using the IV probit and IV Tobit procedures implemented in Stata v9. 5. Empirical Results Our results divide naturally into those related to the additionality of public support for product innovation in all plants, and those related specifically to policy impacts on indigenously-owned plants. As suggested earlier, the latter group is of particular interest as it was a specific focus of policy in both Ireland and Northern Ireland over the whole of the study period. Policy effects on all plants IV probit estimates of the extensive additionality effect of public support for product development are given in Table 1 for Northern Ireland and Table 2 for Ireland. 14 Positive and significant ATEs – extensive additionality – is observed in Northern Ireland with a positive but insignificant ATE in Ireland. Other factors also prove important in determining the probability of innovating, with R&D and supply-chain linkages having positive and significant effects in both Ireland and Northern Ireland, but little evidence of any important non-supply chain linkages. This reflects the findings of other survey-based examinations of innovation which typically stress internal R&D as an element of knowledge creation and absorptive capacity (e.g. Griffith et al., 2003) and the importance of supply-chain knowledge linkages (HewittDundas et al., 2002). Skill levels (e.g. Freel, 2005), capital intensity, and the nature of the plant‟s production activities also prove important in determining the probability of innovating in both Northern Ireland and Ireland. Interestingly, however, we observe no significant scale, ownership or plant vintage effects on the probability of innovation in either jurisdiction. ---Table 1 here --IV Tobit estimates of improved product additionality and new product additionality for Northern Ireland and Ireland are given in Tables 1 and 2 respectively. In each case the results are strongly reminiscent of those for extensive additionality, with a positive and significant ATEs in Northern Ireland and positive but insignificant ATEs in Ireland. Again R&D and supply-chain linkages also prove important in determining the average level of improved and new product innovation although we observe no positive non-supply chain linkages. Perhaps the most disappointing element of this latter result is the lack of any clear innovation effect from investments in public knowledge sources (e.g. universities, R&D laboratories) in Ireland and Northern Ireland (although see Wrynn, 1997). In terms of improved product innovation we also observe only weak scale effects, although plant vintage, the nature 15 of plants production activities and skill levels remain important (Tables 1 and 2). In terms of new product innovation, scale effects – which we equate with plant‟s resources – prove more important, with consistent skills and investment effects. ---Table 2 here --- Table 3, part A summarises the ATEs of public support for product development in all plants. Effects are universally positive and more strongly significant in Northern Ireland than in Ireland. The implication being that the extensive, improved product and new product effects of policy in Northern Ireland were generally stronger than those achieved in Ireland over this period. It is difficult from our econometric analysis to be sure why this pattern of policy effects emerges but three possible explanations are suggested by our descriptive statistics. First, it is clear that in general levels of innovation activity in the population of plants were generally lower in Northern Ireland than Ireland over the sample period (Annex 1). This means that a larger proportion of plants in Northern Ireland were engaged in either no innovation or incremental innovation than in Ireland, increasing the potential for additionality among these firms. Other potential explanations relate more directly to the consistency and level of public support for innovation in Ireland and Northern Ireland (Figure 1). In general terms, levels of public support in Northern Ireland were more consistent than those in Ireland, creating perhaps a more stable planning environment in which plants were more confident about developing innovation projects. Possibly more important, however, is that on a per employee basis public support for 16 innovation in Northern Ireland (€225 per employee per annum) was more than double that in Ireland (€105 per employee per annum) over the 1994-2001 period19. ----------------- Table 3 here --------------------Additionality in Indigenously-owned plants Indigenously-owned plants in Ireland and Northern Ireland tend to be smaller than their externally-owned counterparts, more concentrated in more traditional sectors and less innovation active than externally-owned plants (e.g. Roper et al., 2004). Moreover, as noted earlier continuing doubts about the technological capabilities of indigenously-owned Irish businesses have made such plants a key focus of policy interest. We might therefore expect both a concentration of public support for innovation among these firms as well as, potentially, more significant ATEs. In fact, however, the proportions of indigenously-owned plants in both Ireland and Northern Ireland in our sample who received public support for product development are lower than those among externally-owned plants. In Ireland the proportion of indigenouslyowned plants receiving public support for product development was 23.2 per cent (externally-owned 23.5 per cent). In Northern Ireland, a larger difference between groups was evident with 19.7 per cent of indigenously-owned plants receiving public support for product development compared to 27.5 per cent of externally-owned plants. Estimating similar models to those in Tables 1 and 2 for indigenously-owned firms only we observe positive and significant ATEs for the probability of undertaking 19 Average annual grant expenditure in Northern Ireland over the 1994-2001 period was €22.6m compared to an average of €28.31 in Ireland. Manufacturing employment in Ireland in 2001 was 268,000 and in Northern Ireland was 100,186. Sources: Figure 1, Department of Trade, Enterprise and Investment, Belfast; Central Statistical Office, Dublin. 17 product innovation by indigenously-owned plants in both areas (Table 3)20. In other words, for this group of plants public support for product development was having positive extensive additionality. Other factors also prove important, however, with inhouse R&D and supply-chain linkages again positive and significant along with skill levels and the production orientation of the plants. Less important were business size, vintage and whether or not the plant was part of a multi-plant group. Essentially similar results are observed with respect of improved product additionality with positive and significant ATEs and a broadly similar range of other factors proving important in determining the extent of plants‟ incremental innovation activity. In terms of new product additionality, we also observe positive ATEs from public support for product development in Ireland and positive and (marginally) insignificant results in Northern Ireland (Table 3). In short, therefore, public support for product development in indigenously-owned plants in both Ireland and Northern Ireland was having generally positive and significant extensive, improved and new product additionality effects. The consistency of the other factors which support innovation in these firms – in-house R&D, supply-chain linkages, skills also emphasise the potential value of other types of policy initiatives in supporting innovation in this group of plants. Freel (2005), for example, discusses the role of training and workforce skills as an enabler of innovation, a relationship strongly evident in our data. Other measures, applied with differential emphasis in Ireland and Northern Ireland have been support for capital investment (see, for example, Fielding (2003) on Northern Ireland), and attempts to 20 Full details of these models for indigenously-owned firms are available from the authors on request. 18 develop supply chain linkages such as the Irish National Linkages Programme. Our results suggest that both are also likely to be important as innovation enablers. 19 6. Conclusions Our analysis, based on data for manufacturing plants in Ireland and Northern Ireland suggests the positive output effects of public support for product development. For both all plants, and the more specific target group of indigenously-owned plants, we see positive and generally significant ATEs suggesting positive extensive, improved product and new product additionality effects. This is consistent with more general evidence of the positive additionality effects of public support for R&D cited earlier (e.g. Griliches, 1995; Mamuneas and Nadiri, 1996), and is clearly a welcome policy message given the ubiquity of public support for innovation activity. Our results also provide further support for the importance of external knowledge sources for innovation. A clear hierarchy emerges, however, with in-house R&D and supplychain collaboration both more important than non-supply chain collaboration. In addition to these knowledge sourcing variables, we find strong evidence that plants‟ innovation activities depend on their organisational context, skill-base, and capital investment. A number of policy conclusions follow from our analysis. First, it is clear that public support for product development can be effective in both encouraging plants to undertake innovation for the first time (extensive additionality) and improving the quality of plants‟ innovation (improved and new product additionality). Investment in such public support measures may therefore be seen as worthwhile either in isolation or as part of a package of innovation support measures designed to overcome perceived barriers to innovation (e.g. Hewitt-Dundas, 2006). Second, our analysis again emphasises the importance of boundary spanning links for innovation. Policy measure to support collaboration – particularly along the supply-chain - are therefore 20 likely to have positive innovation benefits by encouraging knowledge diffusion. Third, measures designed to strengthen plants‟ internal R&D capability are likely to contribute directly to innovation but also to increase absorptive capacity, allowing plants to more effectively take advantage of external knowledge sources (e.g. Roper et al., 2000; Griffith et al., 2003). Fourth, skill levels also emerge as important in shaping plants innovation success. Measures to promote skill development are therefore likely to be doubly effective in increasing wealth creation both by promoting innovation directly (e.g. Freel, 2005), and by increasing the effectiveness with which innovation activity is commercially exploited and knowledge absorbed (Roper et al., 2008). 21 References Ballesteros, J A and Rico, A M (2001) 'Public Financing of Co-operative R&D Projects in Spain: The Concerted Projects under the National R&D Plan‟, Research Policy, 30, 625-641. 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Summary of Figures and Tables Figure 1: R&D and Innovation Grant Support in Ireland and Northern Ireland (€m pa) Table 1: Impact of Public Support on Product Innovation: Northern Ireland Table 2: Impact of Public Support on Product Innovation: Ireland Table 3: Summary of policy effects by type of additionality and area Annex 1: Data Descriptives 25 Figure 1: R&D and Innovation Grant Support in Ireland and Northern Ireland (€m pa) 45 40 35 30 Ireland 25 €m pa Northern Ireland 20 15 10 5 0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Notes and Sources: Northern Ireland, nominal sterling data from IRTU Annual Reports. See Roper (2001) for details; currency conversion to € using market exchange rates. Ireland, nominal grants data provided by Forfas. 26 Table 1: Impact of Public Support on Product Innovation: Northern Ireland Probability of innovation (IV Probit) Coeff t-value Improved product innovation (IV Tobit) Coeff t-value New product innovation (IV Tobit) Coeff t-value 1.183 2.390 29.880 2.350 17.010 1.770 Plant level Controls In-house R&D Supply-chain links Non-supply chain links Plant size (employment) Plant size (emp, squared) Plant vintage Production one-offs Production small batches Production large batches Part of multi-plant group Externally-owned Workforce with degree Workforce with no qual. Capital Inv per employee 0.767 0.011 0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 -0.477 0.259 0.124 -0.145 0.203 0.016 0.000 -0.001 3.530 3.860 0.670 -0.710 0.580 0.050 -3.140 2.010 0.850 -0.710 0.940 1.900 -0.120 -0.220 23.203 0.294 -0.050 -0.003 0.000 -0.074 -16.698 6.113 3.570 -8.482 -5.806 0.421 -0.028 0.112 4.380 4.140 -0.530 -0.210 -0.160 -1.440 -3.430 1.670 0.900 -1.510 -1.000 2.250 -0.460 0.600 13.003 0.159 -0.055 -0.015 0.002 -0.046 -13.518 7.054 3.015 -7.635 -5.607 0.075 0.004 0.078 3.420 3.310 -0.900 -1.730 1.520 -1.100 -3.600 2.700 1.080 -1.840 -1.280 0.470 0.090 0.730 Constant -0.536 -2.010 -6.777 -1.010 -4.347 -0.710 Public Support n Equation χ2(.) Log Likelihood Exogeneity χ2(1) 684 184.15 -2520.03 1.07 (ρ=0.300) 660 264.81 -9282.8 1.73 (ρ=0.188) 656 166.06 -8765.24 0.75 (ρ=0.38) Notes: Survey responses are weighted to give representative results. Models are estimated on a pooled sample covering the 1994 to 2002 period. Models also include industry dummies (not reported) following Youtie et al. (2005): food and textiles includes Nace 15-19; Materials based industries includes Nace 20-23, 26, 36; Science based industries are Nace 24; Metals and engineering includes Nace 27-29 and electrical and transport includes Nace 30-35 Source: Irish Innovation Panel 27 Table 2: Impact of Public Support on Product Innovation: Ireland Probability of innovation (IV Probit) Coeff t-value Improved product innovation (IV Tobit) Coeff t-value New product innovation (IV Tobit) Coeff t-value Public Support 0.196 0.520 9.830 1.240 8.423 1.400 Plant level Controls In-house R&D Supply-chain links Non-supply chain links Plant size (employment) Plant size (emp, squared) Plant vintage Production one-offs Production small batches Production large batches Part of multi-plant group Externally-owned Workforce with degree Workforce with no qual. Capital Inv per employee 1.111 0.008 -0.002 0.000 0.000 0.001 -0.300 0.200 0.248 -0.075 0.050 0.009 -0.001 0.006 8.780 3.610 -0.460 0.140 0.470 0.440 -2.130 1.890 2.110 -0.500 0.310 1.630 -0.450 2.010 30.520 0.215 0.020 0.004 0.000 -0.075 -10.343 6.885 4.650 2.488 2.354 0.079 -0.071 0.013 8.030 3.730 0.260 0.330 0.110 -1.330 -2.320 2.220 1.430 0.600 0.570 0.550 -1.450 0.360 17.479 0.125 0.015 -0.003 0.001 -0.098 -9.311 4.860 2.615 -1.272 2.239 0.164 -0.061 0.019 6.200 2.980 0.240 -0.330 0.360 -2.940 -3.130 2.190 1.150 -0.430 0.750 1.560 -1.820 0.660 Constant -0.431 -1.920 -9.768 -1.490 -7.366 -1.630 n Equation χ2(.) Log Likelihood Exogeneity χ2(1) 1007 205.12 -6004.7 1.22 (ρ=0.269) 958 240.22 -24280 0.22 (ρ=0.63) 958 202.11 -22602.153 0.01 (ρ=0.911) Notes: Survey responses are weighted to give representative results. Models are estimated on a pooled sample covering the 1994 to 2002 period. Models also include industry dummies (not reported) following Youtie et al. (2005): food and textiles includes Nace 15-19; Materials based industries includes Nace 20-23, 26, 36; Science based industries are Nace 24; Metals and engineering includes Nace 27-29 and electrical and transport includes Nace 30-35 Source: Irish Innovation Panel 28 Table 3: Summary of policy effects by type of additionality and area All Plants Extensive Additionality Incremental Additionality Radical Additionality Indigenously-owned plants Extensive Additionality Incremental Additionality Radical Additionality Northern Ireland Ireland + + + (+) (+) (+) + + (+) + + + Notes: + denotes significant positive effect; (+) denotes positive but insignificant effect. 29 Annex 1: Data Descriptives Northern Ireland N(N=1156) Mean Std. Dev. Innovation Indicators Sales of new product (% of total) Sales of new and improved products (% of total) Product Innovator (1/0) In house R&D (1/0) Public Support: For product development (1/0) For process development (1/0) For R&D (1/0) For capital investment (1/0) Business Level Controls Supply Chain Innovation Links (% mean) Non- supply Chain Innovation Links (% mean) Employment 50-99 (1/0) Employment 100-249 (1/0) Employment 250+ (1/0) Plant age in years (mean) Production Mainly One-Offs (1/0) Production Mainly Small Batches (1/0) Production Mainly Large Batches (1/0) Multi-plant group (0/1) Externally-owned (0/1) Workforce with degree (%) Workforce with no qualifications (%) Capital Investment per employee (£000) Industry Dummies Food and textile industries (1/0) Materials based industries (1/0) Science-based Industries (1/0) Metals and Engineering (1/0) Electrical and Transport Sectors (1/0) Ireland (N=1571) Mean Std. Dev. 12.503 25.727 0.564 0.421 20.620 33.305 0.496 0.494 15.009 28.963 0.628 0.489 22.960 34.426 0.483 0.500 0.215 0.132 0.085 0.289 0.411 0.339 0.279 0.453 0.233 0.150 0.101 0.221 0.423 0.357 0.301 0.415 19.239 9.978 0.174 0.125 0.257 35.209 0.224 0.430 0.271 0.673 0.226 7.270 47.615 4.645 30.187 22.594 0.379 0.330 0.980 32.096 0.417 0.495 0.444 0.469 0.418 10.034 32.741 11.820 22.784 12.437 0.185 0.129 0.299 31.233 0.201 0.408 0.285 0.543 0.302 9.472 45.651 7.013 30.661 24.122 0.389 0.336 1.052 29.455 0.401 0.491 0.452 0.498 0.459 12.864 32.677 21.109 0.237 0.380 0.087 0.121 0.139 0.425 0.485 0.282 0.327 0.346 0.203 0.304 0.090 0.183 0.192 0.402 0.460 0.287 0.387 0.394 Notes: Survey responses are weighted to give representative results. Figures are pooled values covering the 1994 to 2002 period. Our use of industry dummies follows Youtie et al. (2005): food and textiles includes Nace 15-19; Materials based industries includes Nace 20-23, 26, 36; Science based industries are Nace 24; Metals and engineering includes Nace 27-29 and electrical and transport includes Nace 30-35 Source: Irish Innovation Panel 30